ayes2010 - per dahlen
DESCRIPTION
Per is primarily engaged in deal sourcing and investment management in Portelet's sustainability and cleantech investment initatves. He has over 15 years of experience in business development and man- agement across many industries including automotve, electronics, IT, sofware, internet, printng, imaging and logistcs both as an executve and an entrepreneur. He is a regular speaker at high profle bio-energy events and chairs the Globalizaton Commitee of the Sustainable Energy Associaton of Singapore (SEAS). He lived and worked in Sweden, Spain and Holland and is now residing in Singapore.TRANSCRIPT
Scaling-up Synthetic Biology in
Southeast Asia
ISSB presentation
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
ISSB presentation
Per Dahlen, Partner
Portelet Asia Pte. Ltd.
up Synthetic Biology in
Southeast Asia
ISSB presentation
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
ISSB presentation
Per Dahlen, Partner
Portelet Asia Pte. Ltd.
Copyright and disclaimer
Portelet Asia Pte. Ltd. is happy to let those who want to, use and redistribute the information in this presentation as long as you add Portelet Asia Pte. Ltd. (www.portelet.com) as the source of your information. Thank you.
The information in this document is for informative purposes only, Portelet Asia Pte. Ltd. should not be held responsible for the accuracy of the data presented in this document
The purpose of this document is to share our view about the future of Biofuels in Southeast Asia and to serve as a The purpose of this document is to share our view about the future of Biofuels in Southeast Asia and to serve as a platform for discussions with potential clients, partners and other parties interested in this business opportunity
The information described in this document may be protected by one or more U.S. patents, foreign patents, or pending applications.
Portelet is a registered trademark of Portelet Holdings Pte. Ltd. Product and brand names used in the document may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. Any such trademarks or registered trademarks are the sole property of their respective owners.
The information in this document is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or noninfringement.
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
infringement.
This document could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors.
All strategic and product statements in this document are subject to change at Portelet Asia Pte. discretion, including the right to alter or cancel features, functionality, or release dates.
Changes to this document may be made at any time without notice.
© 2010 Portelet Asia Pte. Ltd.
Portelet Asia Pte. Ltd. is happy to let those who want to, use and redistribute the information in this presentation as long as you add Portelet Asia Pte. Ltd. (www.portelet.com) as the source of your information. Thank you.
The information in this document is for informative purposes only, Portelet Asia Pte. Ltd. should not be held responsible for the accuracy of the data presented in this document
The purpose of this document is to share our view about the future of Biofuels in Southeast Asia and to serve as a The purpose of this document is to share our view about the future of Biofuels in Southeast Asia and to serve as a platform for discussions with potential clients, partners and other parties interested in this business opportunity
The information described in this document may be protected by one or more U.S. patents, foreign patents, or
Portelet is a registered trademark of Portelet Holdings Pte. Ltd. Product and brand names used in the document may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. Any such trademarks or registered trademarks are the sole property of their respective owners.
The information in this document is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or non-
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
This document could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors.
All strategic and product statements in this document are subject to change at Portelet Asia Pte. Ltd.’s sole discretion, including the right to alter or cancel features, functionality, or release dates.
Changes to this document may be made at any time without notice.
a unique Capital Services & Investment Boutique
• Corporate Finance, Wealth Management and Fund Management
• Established 1998, Cleantech investments since 2006
Portelet
• Established 1998, Cleantech investments since 2006
• Invests in Feedstock, Conversion and Supporting technologies
• Internationalization and Growth Acceleration of Technologies
• Mostly focused on Southeast Asia and India
• Team, Business Model, Sustainability, Scalability and Exit
Zürich • Bombay • SingaporeZürich • Bombay • Singapore
Boutique
Corporate Finance, Wealth Management and Fund Management
Established 1998, Cleantech investments since 2006Established 1998, Cleantech investments since 2006
Invests in Feedstock, Conversion and Supporting technologies
Internationalization and Growth Acceleration of Technologies
Mostly focused on Southeast Asia and India
Team, Business Model, Sustainability, Scalability and Exit
Zürich • Bombay • SingaporeZürich • Bombay • Singapore
Industrial Biotechnology
The Industrial Biotechnology Framework
“MAGIC”FeedstockB
ug
s
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
Pro
cess
The Industrial Biotechnology Framework
85 mbpd
Chemical
Fuel
Target
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
Strong EU fuel imports very likely given the economicsEU and US biotech companies must seek deployment and growth in low cost regions
Second generation ethanol production comparing production in Europe to Southeast
Asia (USD/ton ethanol in Rotterdam)
$300.00
$400.00
$500.00
$600.00
$700.00
$800.00
$900.00 Source: SEKAB, Accenture, McKinsey, MPOB, Novozymes, Poyry, compiled by Portelet
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
$-
$100.00
$200.00
$300.00
EU SEA
Strong EU fuel imports very likely given the economicsEU and US biotech companies must seek deployment and growth in low cost regions
� For 2nd generation ethanol, with
an average feedstock price of EUR
105 per ton (USD 136/t), this
Second generation ethanol production comparing production in Europe to Southeast
Profit before tax
Shipment to EU
CapEx
OpEx
Enzymes
105 per ton (USD 136/t), this
translates into a total feedstock
cost of EUR 362 per ton ethanol,
60% of today's sales price of EUR
600 per ton ethanol.
� Given high investments in
processing plants and higher
operating costs required for 2nd
generation ethanol production
(enzymes), any large-scale
deployment may not be feasible
without significant subsidies.
� The UK is proposing a EUR 0.30
, compiled by Portelet
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
Enzymes
Feedstock
� The UK is proposing a EUR 0.30
per litre subsidy which would
make the business an interesting
investment opportunity, but only
with subsidies.
� Deploying the 2nd generation
biofuel technology in a developing
country alters the economics
fundamentally
Evolution of Plantations in Southeast Asia
Continuous evolution in search of higher returns per Hectare
Revenue per Ha
Rubber
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
Gambir
1830
Evolution of Plantations in Southeast Asia
Continuous evolution in search of higher returns per Hectare
Palm Oil
Energy Crop?
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
2010
Looking 10 years into the future…
Revenues per Ha of plantation - USD
300,000,000 Source: MPBO, ViaSpace compiled by Portelet
Average Palm Mill in MY:
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
2015?
Average Palm Mill in MY:
410 Operational Mills
225,608 ton FFB/year
20.21% CPO yield
11,180 Ha of plantation
20.18 ton FFB per Ha
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
-
50,000,000
CPO today CPO + Fronds & Trunks
2010
Looking 10 years into the future…
2020?
Biofuel
CPO2015?
2020?
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
CPO + Fronds & Trunks Energy Crop
140
160 Source: : EIA, December 2009 historic prices and short-term forecast
The price of Crude Oil for the past 5 yearsCrossed USD 50.00/bbl barrier 5 years ago – the average price of oil has been USD 70.00/bbl
20
40
60
80
100
120
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
0
Jun
24
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Jun
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term forecast
The price of Crude Oil for the past 5 yearsthe average price of oil has been USD 70.00/bbl
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
Sep
24
, 2
00
7
De
c 2
4,
20
07
Ma
r 2
4,
20
08
Jun
24
, 2
00
8
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00
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Radical advancements in Biotechnology
“Create and test 10,000 of engineered yeast strains each week...!”
Improvements in DNA sequestering are driving down the costs of whole
genomes creating a new “Moore’s Law” – Base pairs sequenced per dollar
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000 Source: George Church, Harvard University
Note: Dollar figures refer to reagent costs
1995
Gel electrophoresis:
USD 3.0 bn
2005
Capillary
electrophoresis: USD
50 M
2009
Ligation: USD 1k-5k
Polymerization: USD 50k
2011: USD 100
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
0.01
0.1
1
10USD 3.0 bn
Radical advancements in Biotechnology
“Create and test 10,000 of engineered yeast strains each week...!”
� In the fast-moving field of synthetic
biology—a discipline that looks to
Improvements in DNA sequestering are driving down the costs of whole
Base pairs sequenced per dollarbiology—a discipline that looks to
rewrite the DNA of microorganisms as if
it were computer code—the California
laboratories of Amyris are considered
state of the art
� Researchers create and test tens of
thousands of engineered yeast strains
each week
� The company employs nearly as many
PhD yeast geneticists as all the
universities in Brazil
MIT Technology Review – April, 2010
2009
5k
Polymerization: USD 50k
2011: USD 100
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
Image source: Wikicommons, Peel, M. C. and Finlayson, B. L. and McMahon, T. A. (2007).
Strategic advantage being in the Tropics
…but also logistical advantages compared to other tropical regions
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
Peel, M. C. and Finlayson, B. L. and McMahon, T. A. (2007).
Strategic advantage being in the Tropics
…but also logistical advantages compared to other tropical regions
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
Potential: Casson (2007) cites numbers on degraded land from the Indonesian Ministry
of Forestry, which has classified over 23 million ha as degraded land.
(1997) estimated the total area of total area of ImperataImperata
million ha in Indonesia). This compares to roughly 10 million ha of globally harvested
oil palm plantations today.
WWF, Ecofys – September 2010
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
(2007) cites numbers on degraded land from the Indonesian Ministry
of Forestry, which has classified over 23 million ha as degraded land. Garrity et al.
ImperataImperata Grassland in Asia at 35 million ha Grassland in Asia at 35 million ha (8.5
million ha in Indonesia). This compares to roughly 10 million ha of globally harvested
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
Zürich • Bombay • SingaporeZürich • Bombay • Singapore
Giant King Grass – VIASPACE Inc.
6 month to harvest – 100-135 ton Biomass per Hectare per Year
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
Information provided courtesy of: ViaSpace Inc. – USA (www.viaspace.com)
April-2009
VIASPACE Inc.
135 ton Biomass per Hectare per Year
August-2009
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
November-2009
USA (www.viaspace.com)
http://www.claas.co.uk/countries/generator/cl-pw/en/products/forage_harvester/jaguar_980
930/video_animation/video/start,lang=en_UK.html
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
pw/en/products/forage_harvester/jaguar_980-
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
One processing plant + 625Ha plantation = USD 15MOne processing plant + 625Ha plantation = USD 15M
Total investment USD 15MTotal investment USD 15M
ReRe--investing during 8 yearsinvesting during 8 years
USD 2,000,000,000 annual revenuesUSD 2,000,000,000 annual revenues
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
USD 2,000,000,000 annual revenuesUSD 2,000,000,000 annual revenues
Total investment USD 15MTotal investment USD 15M
investing during 8 yearsinvesting during 8 years
USD 2,000,000,000 annual revenuesUSD 2,000,000,000 annual revenues
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
USD 2,000,000,000 annual revenuesUSD 2,000,000,000 annual revenues
Current plans for Project Financing
Expected USD +100bn available by 2015 in Southeast Asia
Southeast AsiaUSA/EU
REF-1
USD 500MREF-1
USD 500MREF-1
USD 500MREF-1
USD 500MREF-1
USD 500MREF-1
USD 500MREF-1
USD 500MREF-1
USD 500MREF-1
USD 500M
ADB/P8
USD 2bn2007-2010
US/EU VC-funds
USD 2.3 bn
IB-tech 1
USD 100M
IB-tech 2
USD 80M
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
SPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100M
IB-tech 3
USD 120M
IB-tech n
USD XXM
Current plans for Project Financing
Expected USD +100bn available by 2015 in Southeast Asia
2012 – USD 10bn (x5)
Renewable Energy
Private Equity Funds
2011 – USD 2bn
Fund-of-Funds
ADB + P8
PT Green Investments
USD 1bn
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
USD 100MUSD 100MUSD 100M1
USD 100M
SPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100MSPV-1
USD 100M
2013 – USD 60bn (x6)
Project financing +
Debt financing (60-70%)
2014 – USD +100bn (?)
Oil, Chemical, Agri
Tremendous potential, but need to act now…
• Oil-price will remain above USD 70/bbl
• Biotechnology will change our lives
Conclusions
• Biotechnology will change our lives
• Energy crops are here today – 100tpy/Ha is possible
• The money will be there, it is all about the plan
• 2nd generation Biofuels starts through Palm biomass (Ag Waste)
• Technology is looking for opportunities, abundant opportunities
• Implementation likely to be faster then we think….
Zürich • Bombay • SingaporeZürich • Bombay • Singapore
• Southeast Asia is the ideal region for 2
moving now…
Tremendous potential, but need to act now…
price will remain above USD 70/bbl
100tpy/Ha is possible
The money will be there, it is all about the plan
generation Biofuels starts through Palm biomass (Ag Waste)
Technology is looking for opportunities, abundant opportunities
Implementation likely to be faster then we think….
Zürich • Bombay • SingaporeZürich • Bombay • Singapore
Southeast Asia is the ideal region for 2nd generation biofuels, let’s get
Thank [email protected]
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
Thank [email protected]
Zürich • Bombay • Singapore
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