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March 20, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Company Update RoE progression on track, valuation to sustain Axis Bank’s top management provided deep insights into the bank’s strategy to achieve aspired RoE of 18% in the medium term (FY22E). New MD & CEO, Amitabh Chaudhary, showcased their Growth- Profitability- Sustainability (G-P-S) strategy. Drivers to lead to uptick in RoE are; 1) Risk normalisation (controlled asset quality and credit cost), 2) business mix optimisation (RAROC based portfolio choice), 3) operating efficiency (cost to asset ratio to trim below 2%). Our RoE estimates, without factoring in capital infusion, are at ~15.4% in FY21E. Hence, RoE target of 18% by FY22E, along with capital infusion, seems a bit difficult. The management’s insight on existing processes and planned modifications to mitigate risk (by separating credit and risk), stepping on growth with risk adjusted return on capital (RAROC) based model under the new leadership provide comfort about future prospects of the bank. Focus on deposits, retail liabilities to capture credit growth Axis Bank has a strong liability franchise. CASA deposits at | 235552 crore, account for ~46% of deposits while CASA ratio has been ~45% for almost a decade. However, the recent slower deposit growth in industry and also for Axis Bank, remains a key focus area to ensure profitable and sustainable credit growth. Currently, the loan book comprises 48.9% retail, 38% corporate and 13% SME segment, which is largely as they would like. However, they have kept no boundary rules to keep any proportion fixed and can vary on the basis of opportunities. Wholesale business – The bank is not averse to corporate loan growth if an opportunity exists on the basis of their RAROC. However, aggressive growth in infrastructure lending is ruled out in the current scenario. The bank intends to moderate corporate guarantee business. Hence, the slowdown in wholesale fee is expected to continue. Retail business – Within retail, the share of high yielding retail assets (like credit cards, personal loans) are rising and form 37% of total retail vs. 31% earlier. Also, the share of retail fee is taking over corporate fee. We expect loan traction of 17.4% CAGR and deposit growth of 16.9% CAGR in FY18-21E to | 711119 crore and 724729 crore, respectively. Moderation in overseas business is expected to continue in near term. Contained credit costs via better risk assessment, high rated book Almost 94% of incremental lending is to corporates with rating of A- and above. The bank’s BB & below rated book is continuously declining to | 7645 crore; 1.4% of gross customer assets vs. 7.3% peak in June 2016. Corporate slippages were at | 1887 crore, of which ~98% came from BB & below account. Hence, credit costs are expected to moderate from 3.7% to 1.1% by FY21E. With bulk of the pain recognised, lower exposure to IL&FS and anticipated recovery of large stressed cases referred to NCLT, we expect GNPA ratio to improve to ~4% by FY21E. Focus on risk adjusted growth to drive returns; maintain BUY The new CEO has outlined his strategy focused on acceleration in growth, improving earnings and increasing sustainability. Accordingly, focus on loans offering higher return on risk-weighted basis and tight control on cost is seen enhancing return ratios. Contingent provision of | 600 crore in Q3 provides comfort. Recovery from NCLT cases could act as positive surprise. We expect PAT CAGR of 76% over FY19-21E with RoA and RoE of 1.3% and 15.4%, respectively, by FY21E. We also build value for its subsidiaries at | 35 per share, post 20% holding company discount. We remain positive on the bank and upgrade our target price to | 825 (earlier | 790) valuing core bank at 2.6x FY21E ABV. We maintain BUY rating. Rating matrix Rating : Buy Target : | 825 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 10% What’s Changed? Target Changed from | 790 to | 825 EPS FY20E Unchanged at | 37.5 EPS FY21E Unchanged at | 49.7 Rating Unchanged Key Financials | crore FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E NII 18,618 21,659 24,981 29,487 PPP 15,594 18,467 21,388 25,875 PAT (263) 4,208 9,806 12,986 Valuation summary FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E P/E NA 43.1 18.5 14.0 Target P/E NA 49.0 21.0 15.9 P/ABV 3.8 3.3 2.7 2.3 Target P/ABV 4.3 3.7 3.1 2.6 RoE -0.4 6.3 13.3 15.4 RoA (0.0) 0.6 1.1 1.3 Stock data Market Capitalisation | 195671 crore GNPA (Q3FY19) | 30855 crore NNPA (Q3FY19) | 12233 crore NIM (Q3FY19) 3.47 52 week H/L 763 /477 Net worth | 63445 Crore Face value | 2 DII Holding (%) 19.5 FII Holding (%) 47.6 Price performance (%) Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M Yes Bank 16.9 38.6 -22.1 -18.4 Axis Bank 9.8 18.6 25.0 46.5 Indusind Bank 16.5 7.0 -4.4 0.4 Price Chart 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 0 200 400 600 800 Mar-19 Dec-18 Aug-18 May-18 Jan-18 Oct-17 Jul-17 Mar-17 Dec-16 Sep-16 May-16 Feb-16 Axis (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) Axis Bank (AXIBAN) | 750 Research Analyst Kajal Gandhi [email protected] Vishal Narnolia [email protected] Harsh Shah [email protected]

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March 20, 2019

Page | 1

March 20, 2019

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Company Update

RoE progression on track, valuation to sustain

Axis Bank’s top management provided deep insights into the bank’s

strategy to achieve aspired RoE of 18% in the medium term (FY22E). New

MD & CEO, Amitabh Chaudhary, showcased their Growth- Profitability-

Sustainability (G-P-S) strategy. Drivers to lead to uptick in RoE are; 1) Risk

normalisation (controlled asset quality and credit cost), 2) business mix

optimisation (RAROC based portfolio choice), 3) operating efficiency (cost

to asset ratio to trim below 2%). Our RoE estimates, without factoring in

capital infusion, are at ~15.4% in FY21E. Hence, RoE target of 18% by

FY22E, along with capital infusion, seems a bit difficult.

The management’s insight on existing processes and planned

modifications to mitigate risk (by separating credit and risk), stepping on

growth with risk adjusted return on capital (RAROC) based model under

the new leadership provide comfort about future prospects of the bank.

Focus on deposits, retail liabilities to capture credit growth

Axis Bank has a strong liability franchise. CASA deposits at | 235552

crore, account for ~46% of deposits while CASA ratio has been ~45% for

almost a decade. However, the recent slower deposit growth in industry

and also for Axis Bank, remains a key focus area to ensure profitable and

sustainable credit growth. Currently, the loan book comprises 48.9%

retail, 38% corporate and 13% SME segment, which is largely as they

would like. However, they have kept no boundary rules to keep any

proportion fixed and can vary on the basis of opportunities.

Wholesale business – The bank is not averse to corporate loan growth if

an opportunity exists on the basis of their RAROC. However, aggressive

growth in infrastructure lending is ruled out in the current scenario.

The bank intends to moderate corporate guarantee business. Hence, the

slowdown in wholesale fee is expected to continue.

Retail business – Within retail, the share of high yielding retail assets (like

credit cards, personal loans) are rising and form 37% of total retail vs.

31% earlier. Also, the share of retail fee is taking over corporate fee.

We expect loan traction of 17.4% CAGR and deposit growth of 16.9%

CAGR in FY18-21E to | 711119 crore and 724729 crore, respectively.

Moderation in overseas business is expected to continue in near term.

Contained credit costs via better risk assessment, high rated book

Almost 94% of incremental lending is to corporates with rating of A- and

above. The bank’s BB & below rated book is continuously declining to

| 7645 crore; 1.4% of gross customer assets vs. 7.3% peak in June 2016.

Corporate slippages were at | 1887 crore, of which ~98% came from BB

& below account. Hence, credit costs are expected to moderate from

3.7% to 1.1% by FY21E. With bulk of the pain recognised, lower exposure

to IL&FS and anticipated recovery of large stressed cases referred to

NCLT, we expect GNPA ratio to improve to ~4% by FY21E.

Focus on risk adjusted growth to drive returns; maintain BUY

The new CEO has outlined his strategy focused on acceleration in growth,

improving earnings and increasing sustainability. Accordingly, focus on

loans offering higher return on risk-weighted basis and tight control on

cost is seen enhancing return ratios. Contingent provision of | 600 crore

in Q3 provides comfort. Recovery from NCLT cases could act as positive

surprise. We expect PAT CAGR of 76% over FY19-21E with RoA and RoE

of 1.3% and 15.4%, respectively, by FY21E. We also build value for its

subsidiaries at | 35 per share, post 20% holding company discount. We

remain positive on the bank and upgrade our target price to | 825 (earlier

| 790) valuing core bank at 2.6x FY21E ABV. We maintain BUY rating.

Rating matrix

Rating : Buy

Target : | 825

Target Period : 12 months

Potential Upside : 10%

What’s Changed?

Target Changed from | 790 to | 825

EPS FY20E Unchanged at | 37.5

EPS FY21E Unchanged at | 49.7

Rating Unchanged

Key Financials

| crore FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

NII 18,618 21,659 24,981 29,487

PPP 15,594 18,467 21,388 25,875

PAT (263) 4,208 9,806 12,986

Valuation summary

FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

P/E NA 43.1 18.5 14.0

Target P/E NA 49.0 21.0 15.9

P/ABV 3.8 3.3 2.7 2.3

Target P/ABV 4.3 3.7 3.1 2.6

RoE -0.4 6.3 13.3 15.4

RoA (0.0) 0.6 1.1 1.3

Stock data

Market Capitalisation | 195671 crore

GNPA (Q3FY19) | 30855 crore

NNPA (Q3FY19) | 12233 crore

NIM (Q3FY19) 3.47

52 week H/L 763 /477

Net worth | 63445 Crore

Face value | 2

DII Holding (%) 19.5

FII Holding (%) 47.6

Price performance (%)

Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M

Yes Bank 16.9 38.6 -22.1 -18.4

Axis Bank 9.8 18.6 25.0 46.5

Indusind Bank 16.5 7.0 -4.4 0.4

Price Chart

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

0

200

400

600

800

Mar-

19

Dec-1

8

Aug-1

8

May-18

Jan-1

8

Oct-

17

Jul-17

Mar-

17

Dec-1

6

Sep-1

6

May-16

Feb-1

6

Axis (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S)

Axis Bank (AXIBAN) | 750

Research Analyst

Kajal Gandhi

[email protected]

Vishal Narnolia

[email protected]

Harsh Shah

[email protected]

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2

Other key highlights

Axis Bank is likely to follow the acquisition route for its insurance

venture. RBI’s view on the same will be important and is likely to

lead to buying of a minority stake rather than a majority in the

near term. NoFHC

Current, CET1 is 11.77% while another 48 bps is expected to

come due to warrant conversion. This will be sufficient for the

next 12 months. If CET1 stays below 11% for a quarter or two, the

management may start thinking. At below 10.5% it will certainly

raise capital. We believe by the middle of FY21E, the bank may

look to raise capital, not factored in estimates

Exhibit 1: New organizational structure

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Liability focus to fund growth

Deposits increased 26% YoY to | 514092 crore. The CASA trajectory

remained weak with ratio declining to ~46% vs. 48% in last quarter.

We expect the CASA ratio to sustain at current levels though the pace of

SA accretion may slow down. We expect total deposits to increase at

16.9% CAGR in FY18-21E.

Exhibit 2: Deposit traction to be higher than industry

324101

338343

357968

357858

380187

370790

414379

393741

416431

408967

453623

447079

479680

514092

534485

623007

724729

14.2

16.2

11.0

16.317.3

9.6

15.8

10.0 9.510.3

9.5

13.5

15.2

25.7

17.816.6 16.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

Q2FY16

Q3FY16

FY16

Q1FY17

Q2FY17

Q3FY17

FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

FY18E

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

FY19E

FY20E

FY21E

(| crore)

Deposits Growth (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Share of government in CASA deposits is 22% in private

banks. In CA it is 15% and SA it is 10% among all banks.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 3

Exhibit 3: Focus on CASA +Retail term deposits to remain high

16.4 15.7 17.4 15.2 16.6 15.8 17.8 15.4 16.3 15.7 21.0 18.2 19.2 17.2 21.115.3 16.7 16.4 20.8 20.7 20.5

28.2 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.429.6

28.0 28.4 31.830.4 31.0 31.3 32.1

32.731.6 31.0 29.4

31.9 31.5 31.1

55.5 56.9 55.2 57.2 55.8 56.8 52.7 56.6 55.3 52.4 48.6 50.8 49.6 50.7 46.253.1 52.3 54.2

47.3 47.8 48.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Q2FY15

Q3FY15

FY15

Q1FY16

Q2FY16

Q3FY16

FY16

Q1FY17

Q2FY17

Q3FY17

FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

FY18E

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

FY19E

FY20E

FY21E

(%

)CA SA Term deposit

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 4

Exhibit 4: CASA+RTD…

190

117

39

17

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Metro Urban Semi-Urban Rural

(| crore)

CASA+RTD per Branch

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 5: ..gradual decline in size of branch and manpower

100

55

40 39

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

FY13 FY14+FY15 FY16+FY17 FY18+FY19YTD

(%)

Size of Branches

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Credit growth tilt to retail

Axis Bank’s advances growth in the past decade has consistently been

ahead of the industry. In the past eight years, the increase has been at

30% CAGR compared to 19% CAGR for the industry. This was due to a

sustained increase in branch network (>25% CAGR increase in branches

in the past decade) and the bank’s strong corporate relationships. One

must note that in the last few years, the difference between the bank and

industry’s growth has reduced.

Until FY12, the bank’s loan book was largely skewed towards the

corporate segment. However, later it shifted its focus towards the retail &

SME segments owing to a lack of quality growth opportunities in the

corporate segment. Since then, the retail loan proportion has increased

sharply to 49% as on Q3FY19 from 22% in FY12.

Exhibit 6: Advances expected to grow at 17.4% CAGR in FY18-21E

344,925

353,170

347,175

373,069

385,481

410,171

420,923

439,650

441,074

456,121

475,105

515,338

607,794

711,119

21.2

18.5

10.1 10.1

11.8

16.1

21.2

17.8

14.4

11.2

12.9

17.217.9

17.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Q1FY17

Q2FY17

Q3FY17

FY17E

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

FY19E

FY20E

FY21E

(%

)

(| crore)

Advances Growth (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 7: Proportion of retail segment on the rise to ~49% as on Q3FY19

45.9 45.9 44.7 44.5 41.8 42.1 42.2 41.0 39.7 39.1 38.2 38.0

13.2 12.6 13.0 12.4 13.2 12.4 12.9 13.0 13.4 12.9 13.2 13.1

40.9 41.5 42.3 43.1 45.0 45.5 44.9 45.9 47.0 48.0 48.6 48.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Q4FY16 Q1FY17 Q2FY17 Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19

(%

)

Corporate SME Retail

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

We expect 17.4% CAGR in advances over FY18-21E to

| 711119 crore

We believe adequate capital adequacy ratio of ~16.5%,

CET1 of 11.77% and a strong branch network will aid

higher growth of the retail segment in the overall pie

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 5

Outstanding retail advances, including retail agriculture, were at | 232397

crore as on Q3FY19, growing at 20% YoY. It accounted for 49% of net

advances of the bank. SME advances (including non-retail agriculture)

growth was at 13% YoY and were at | 62238 crore. It accounted for

~13% of net advances.

Exhibit 8: Share of high yield retail rising…

29 3137

71 6963

0

20

40

60

80

100

FY13 FY16 9MFY19

(%)

High Yield Regular Yield

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 9: ..Retail fees growing faster and corporate fee declining

13

9

4

15

11

2

5

-11-13

-21

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 9MFY19(%)

Transaction Banking Fees Corporate credit linked fees

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Currently, CASA + retail term deposits constitute ~80% of total deposits.

Savings account (SA) balances have increased more than18x since FY05

to | 151380 crore as on Q3FY19. Axis Bank has the best SA/branch in the

industry of >| 40 crore.

Going ahead, strong deposit franchise has enabled the bank to maintain

healthy margins of >3% since FY08 despite a challenging environment. In

the past two years, owing to increased focus on the retail & SME

segment, yields have improved. This has further given a boost to

margins, which increased to ~3.7% as on FY17 from 3.3% in FY12.

However, owing to higher slippages in FY18, NIM witnessed pressure and

was ~3.44%. Going ahead, recoveries in stressed assets, hike in MCLR

and change in product mix is likely to provide support to margins to

remain at current level.

Exhibit 10: Margins calculated to stay at healthy level ~3.3-3.4% in next two years

3.2

3.4

3.5

3.3

3.4

3.6

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.43.4

3.4

3.4

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

(%

)

NIM (calculated)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Cost optimisation

Despite a strong increase in the network, Axis Bank has managed its cost

well. The cost to income ratio (CIR) has fallen below 40% in FY16 from

The bank expects a branch network of 5000-5500 over the

longer term to be needed for a pan India presence and

various business growth

Earlier 6% of small business origination was digital, now it

is 58%

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 6

49% in FY08. However, owing to weak operating earnings in FY17, the

ratio increased to 41% and was at 47% in FY18. Going ahead, the

management is focused on keeping a tight control on costs and bringing

down its cost to asset ratio below 2% through improvement in cost

efficiencies and focusing on digital banking and customer analytics.

Exhibit 11: Bank network increases consistently at healthy pace

19472402 2589 2904

3304 3385 3485 3589 3703 3779 3882 3964

11245

1292212355

12743

14163 14311 14332 13977 13814

12834

15940 16253

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 FY18E Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19

Branches ATM

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 7

Asset quality parameters; improvement seen ahead

Post the huge slippage at | 16536 crore in Q4FY18, the accretion came

down to | 4337 crore in Q1FY19 and further down to | 2777 crore. In

Q3FY19, the asset quality improved further. Total 98% of corporate

slippages came from disclosed BB & below accounts. The bank’s BB and

below rated book has been on a continuous decline at | 7645 crore

(| 8860 crore in Q2FY19). This is 1.4% of bank’s gross customer assets,

and is down to less than a fourth of the 7.3% peak reached in June 2016.

These accounts have been already downgraded in H1FY19 while | 100

crore has been provided in lieu of the same in Q3FY19. The bank made a

contingent provision of | 600 crore in Q3FY19 towards any potential

slippages from BB & below pool of corporate loan.

Headline asset quality witnessed an improvement with absolute GNPA at

| 30855 crore (GNPA ratio – 5.75%) vs. | 30938 crore (GNPA ratio –

5.96%) in Q2FY19. PCR improved to 75% vs. 73% QoQ.

Exposure to IL&FS is relatively lower at | 825 crore. Of this, | 238 crore is

fund based while balance | 587 crore is non-fund based. The bank had

made 20% provision in lieu of fund based exposure in Q2FY19.

With the bulk of the stress being recognised and focus of new

management to move towards better rated corporate, moderation in

slippages is seen ahead. Over the longer term, asset quality pressure is

estimated to ease. Anticipated recoveries in large cases referred to NCLT

are expected to lead to a further decline in NPA, though trajectory could

remain volatile. We expect GNPA ratio at ~4% levels by FY21E. Credit

costs are expected to moderate from 3.7% to 1.1% by FY21E.

Exhibit 12: Asset quality outlook improving in long term

16378.6

5

20466.8

2

21280

22030.8

7

27402.3

2

25000.5

1

34249

32662.4

30938.3

3

30854.6

7

34528

33068

31308

7761.1

5

8294.7

8

8627

9765.9

8

14052.3

4

11769.4

9

16592

14901.5

6

12715.7

1

12233.2

9

13695

11786

10906

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Q2FY17

Q3FY17

FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

FY18E

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

FY19E

FY19E

FY20E

FY21E

(| c

rore

)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

(%)

GNPA NNPA GNPA ratio NNPA ratio

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

The bank’s BB and below rated book was at | 7645 crore.

This is 1.4% of bank’s gross customer assets, and is down

to less than a fourth of the 7.3% peak reached in June 2016

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 8

Outlook and valuation

The new CEO has outlined his strategy focused on acceleration in growth,

improving earnings and increasing sustainability. Accordingly, the focus

on loans offering higher return on risk-weighted basis and tight control on

cost is seen enhancing return ratios. Contingent provision of | 600 crore

in Q3 provides comfort, recovery from NCLT cases could act as positive

surprise. We expect PAT CAGR of 76% over FY19-21E and RoA and RoE

of 1.3% and 15.4%, respectively, by FY21E. We also build value for its

subsidiaries at | 35 per share, post 20% holding company discount. We

remain positive on the bank and upgrade our target price to | 825 (earlier

| 790) valuing core bank at 2.6x FY21E ABV. We maintain BUY rating.

Exhibit 13: Valuation

(| cr) (%) (| cr) (%) (x) (|) (x) (%) (%)

FY17 18,093 7.5 3,679.2 (55.3) 48.4 196.8 3.8 0.6 6.8

FY18E 18,618 2.9 (262.7) (107.1) (725.8) 182.5 4.1 (0.0) (0.4)

FY19E 21,659 16.3 4,207.7 (1,701.5) 46.1 212.9 3.5 0.6 6.3

FY20E 24,981 15.3 9,805.7 133.0 19.8 254.2 2.9 1.1 13.3

FY21E 29,487 18.0 12,985.9 32.4 14.9 303.8 2.4 1.3 15.4

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 14: RoE drivers as per management

19.7

7.3

18

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

FY11-15 (Avg) 9MFY19 Med term

(%)

ROE

Drivers to 18% ROE

1.Risk normalization

2.Business mix optimization

3.Improvment in Operating efficiency

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 15: Subsidiaries

(| crore) Income PAT AuM Income PAT AuM

Axis Finance 722 209 6624 651 155 7914

Axis AMC 0 43 67000 - 24 81622

Axis Capital 402 139 - 151 50 0

Axis Securities 951 - - 769 - -

9MFY19FY18

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 9

Financial summary

Profit and loss statement | crore

(Year-end March) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Interest Earned 45,780 54,111 62,616 72,311

Interest Expended 27,163 32,453 37,635 42,824

Net Interest Income 18,618 21,659 24,981 29,487

growth (%) 2.9 16.3 15.3 18.0

Non Interest Income 10,967 12,457 13,812 15,755

Fees and advisory 7,730 8,889 10,223 11,756

Trading Gains 1,325 1,193 1,431 1,717

Other income 1,912 2,375 2,158 2,282

Net Income 29,585 34,115 38,794 45,242

Staff cost 4,313 4,753 5,294 5,894

Other operating Expense 9,677 10,896 12,111 13,474

Operating Profit 15,594 18,467 21,388 25,875

Provisions 16,011 12,023 6,599 6,288

PBT (417) 6,444 14,790 19,587

Taxes (154) 2,236 4,984 6,601

Net Profit (263) 4,208 9,806 12,986

growth (%) -107.1 -1701.5 133.0 32.4

EPS (|) (1.0) 16.1 37.5 49.7

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key ratios

(Year-end March) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Valuation

No. of Equity Shares 256.7 261.2 261.2 261.2

EPS (|) -1.0 16.1 37.5 49.7

BV (|) 247.2 265.3 299.3 345.5

ABV (|) 182.5 212.9 254.2 303.8

P/E -614.0 39.0 16.7 12.6

P/BV 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.8

P/ABV 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.1

Yields & Margins (%)

Net Interest Margins 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4

Yield on assets 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4

Avg. cost on funds 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.9

Yield on average advances 8.4 8.7 8.7 8.7

Avg. Cost of Deposits 4.4 4.8 4.9 4.9

Quality and Efficiency

Cost to income ratio 47.3 45.9 44.9 42.8

Credit/Deposit ratio 96.9 96.4 97.6 98.1

GNPA 6.9 5.9 4.8 3.9

NNPA 3.8 2.7 1.9 1.5

ROE -0.4 6.3 13.3 15.4

ROA (0.0) 0.6 1.1 1.3

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Balance sheet | crore

(Year-end March) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Sources of Funds

Capital 513 522 522 522

Reserves and Surplus 62924 68771 77660 89729

Networth 63438 69294 78183 90252

Deposits 453623 534485 623007 724729

Borrowings 148016 165718 183598 206163

Other Liabilities & Provisions 26245 33301 40963 50554

Total 691322 802797 925751 1071698

Application of Funds

Fixed Assets 3972 4150 4908 5840

Investments 153876 172099 192522 215413

Advances 439650 515338 607794 711119

Other Assets 45111 71896 75106 86809

Cash with RBI & call money 48713 39314 45421 52517

Total 691322 802797 925751 1071698

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Growth ratios (% growth)

(Year-end March) FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

Total assets 14.9 16.1 15.3 15.8

Advances 17.8 17.2 17.9 17.0

Deposit 9.5 17.8 16.6 16.3

Total Income 0.9 17.3 14.8 15.2

Net interest income 2.9 16.3 15.3 18.0

Operating expenses 14.7 11.9 11.2 11.3

Operating profit -11.3 18.4 15.8 21.0

Net profit -107.1 -1701.5 133.0 32.4

Net worth 13.8 9.2 12.8 15.4

EPS (106.7) (1,673.6) 133.0 32.4

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 10

ICICI Direct coverage universe (Banking)

CMP M Cap

(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY18 FY19E FY20E

Bank of Baroda (BANBAR) 117 140 Buy 30,860 -9.2 10.0 17.0 -12.7 11.6 6.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 -0.3 0.4 0.6 -5.8 6.1 9.8

State Bank of India (STABAN) 288 340 Buy 257,118 -7.3 26.0 17.3 -39.3 11.1 16.7 2.4 1.4 1.8 -0.2 0.7 0.4 -3.0 9.7 6.5

Indian Bank (INDIBA) 257 250 Buy 12,360 26.2 16.9 30.6 9.8 15.2 8.4 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.5 7.1 4.4 7.7

Axis Bank (AXIBAN) 743 825 Buy 191,024 1.1 22.2 38.2 691.9 33.4 19.5 4.1 3.5 2.8 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.0 0.8 1.2

City Union Bank (CITUNI) 188 225 Buy 13,766 8.9 8.5 10.3 21.1 22.0 18.2 3.5 3.3 2.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 15.6 14.5 14.2

DCB Bank (DCB) 198 210 Buy 6,129 7.9 10.2 13.9 25.2 19.4 14.2 2.5 2.2 1.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 10.9 11.7 14.0

Federal Bank (FEDBAN) 90 110 Buy 17,933 4.5 6.2 7.4 20.2 14.7 12.2 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 8.2 9.3 10.4

HDFC Bank (HDFBAN) 2,138 2,400 Buy 581,966 67.4 75.5 91.3 31.7 28.3 23.4 5.5 4.1 3.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 18.1 16.6 16.2

IndusInd Bank (INDBA) 1,511 1,860 Buy 91,060 60.1 81.5 106.1 25.1 18.5 14.2 3.9 3.3 2.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 16.2 18.8 20.6

Jammu & Kashmir Bk(JAMKAS) 46 52 Buy 2,567 3.6 5.0 8.9 12.7 9.3 5.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.5 3.4 4.4 7.5

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KOTMAH) 1,238 1,400 Hold 236,167 21.4 26.5 33.0 57.8 46.6 37.5 6.6 6.0 5.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 12.5 12.8 14.4

Yes Bank (YESBAN) 235 300 Buy 54,259 18.3 22.1 26.3 12.8 10.6 8.9 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 17.6 18.0 18.2

Bandhan Bank (BANBAN) 507 575 Buy 60,542 11.3 16.9 21.9 20.8 13.9 10.7 3.0 2.6 2.1 3.6 4.0 4.0 19.5 19.6 21.1

Sector / Company

RoE (%)RoA (%)EPS (|) P/E (x) P/ABV (x)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 11

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct Research endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct Research

assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then

categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and

the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.

Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;

Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;

Hold: Up to +/-10%;

Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 12

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