1°°°° International Workshop:METHODS AND TECHNOLOGIES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND MODELLING:

LANDSLIDES AND GROUND WATER DYNAMICSPotenza - 29 September

WARNING THRESHOLDS: PRELIMINARY ANALYSISWARNING THRESHOLDS: PRELIMINARY ANALYSISSantina Scarpino

PROIDRO project, UniversityPROIDRO project, University

INTRODUCTIONThe warning thresholds are one of most importantpart of an alerting system. It’s called “earlypart of an alerting system. It’s called “earlywarning system”, a series of no-structural actionsthat relates the scientific and technical activitieswith the “Protezione Civile” ones aiming toanticipatenaturaldisastersand to enable, at theanticipatenaturaldisastersand to enable, at thesame time, alerting people and limit damages ordanger caused by extrem events. An early warningsystem requires a series of hydro-meteorologicalforecastswith increasingprecision as the event

Figure 3 – “Centro Funzionale” Operative

forecastswith increasingprecision as the eventapproaches. This is not always easy, especially forsmall and medium-sized basins in which thetiming for the announcement is particularlylimited. Figure 3 – “Centro Funzionale” Operative limited.The “Centro funzionale della Calabria” uses, forthe prediction of hydrological extreme events,rainfall thresholds that provide an advance on thepredictionwithout simulating theevolutionof the

ACTIVITIESIts principal functions are: issuealertshydrological risk all over the regionpredictionwithout simulating theevolutionof the

event. They also allow to conduct preliminaryassessments on the danger and risks associatedwith the event. The stage work consists to identifyhydrologic-hydraulic thresholds to be used in

hydrological risk all over the regionand surveillance activities in realtimeand their effects on the territory;managenetwork and then detect relatingdatavalidate all the data and publish thehydrologic-hydraulic thresholds to be used in

addition to rainfall thresholds already in use.validate all the data and publish theresults to anyone who is interested.

High criticality

Moderatecriticality

OrdinaryOrdinarycriticality

Figure 1 –Warning thresholds

CONTEXTThis work has been developed at the “CentroFunzionale Multitischi della Calabria”. ThisFunzionale Multitischi della Calabria”. Thisinstitution was established with the “ProtezioneCivile” order n. 3081 on 12th of September 2000.Since October 2002, the “Centro Funzionale” hasbeen transferred to Regione Calabria at the Figure 4 – The been transferred to Regione Calabria at theARPACAL, where still works today. Since itsestablishment, the “Centro Funzionale” developeda municipality area scaled alerting system, basedon rainfall thresholds(MO.SI.P. software), and

The first step of the warningsystemIn case of rainfall, real timemeasureddistributed throughout the region,are

Figure 4 – The

on rainfall thresholds(MO.SI.P. software), andcreated different interface modules to monitor andanalize meteorological data. The institutionprovides an essential support to the “ProtezioneCivile” national and regional system. In fact it

observed precipitation with rainfalltowns affected by critical events.The “Centro Funzionale dellaCalabria”different types of precipitation andpossibleCivile” national and regional system. In fact it

manages all about Calabrian system accordingwith the National Department of “ProtezioneCivile”.

them to the National Department of“

Figure 2 –MO.SI.P. MO.SI.P. Interface

Figure 5 – AlertFigure 5 – Alert

UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DELLA BASILICATA“Call for Ideas Project”UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DELLA BASILICATA“Call for Ideas Project”

Facoltà di Ingegneria

International Workshop:METHODS AND TECHNOLOGIES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND MODELLING:

LANDSLIDES AND GROUND WATER DYNAMICS29 September – 3 October 2011

WARNING THRESHOLDS: PRELIMINARY ANALYSISWARNING THRESHOLDS: PRELIMINARY ANALYSISScarpino

University of Basilicata, PotenzaUniversity of Basilicata, Potenza

CURRENT AND FUTURE STAGE WORKThe stage activities concerns the data validationfrom distributed measurementnetwork in thefrom distributed measurementnetwork in theregion and the data organization required by users.

“Centro Funzionale” Operative room Figure 6 – Cosenza Measurement station“Centro Funzionale” Operative room

alertsand critical bulletins concerningregion; conduct forecastingmonitoring

The main activity consists to implement and verifyan hydrological-hydraulic thresholds warningsystem. The methodology used by “CentroFunzionale” for the definition of thesewarningregion; conduct forecastingmonitoring

time about all meteorological eventsmanagethe regional meteorologicaldata to different climatic variables;the resultson the Web; provide the

Funzionale” for the definition of thesewarningthresholds, consists to identify that critical rainfall,using statistical analysis, that can trigger aparticular phenomenon (soil erosion andlandslides,erosion of river bed, overflows andthe resultson the Web; provide the landslides,erosion of river bed, overflows andfloods). The new methodology is being developedevaluates the threshold overcoming comparing itwith the estimated flow at the known section(hydrological modeling) or transiting through(hydrological modeling) or transiting throughstretches of river bed specifically detected(hydrodynamic modelling) and not comparing itonly to quantities of precipitation. This work isbeen developedon the Crati river using MIKEbeen developedon the Crati river using MIKEZERO by DHI software. During this time is doingthe hydraulic study of the valley stretch Crati river.To do this, it was necessary to reconstruct thebasin profile with the relative crosssections. Inbasin profile with the relative crosssections. Inparticular, we have used two different riversections surveys: a digital terrain model (DTM)and a topographic survey. This last survey hasintegratedDTM in the river. In total is workingintegratedDTM in the river. In total is workingwith 250 cross sections.In the coming months will be performed, throughthe MIKE ZERO software, some hydrological andhydrodynamicsimulations that will identify theThe Alert System

systemis to analyze the weather forecast.measureddata, provided by the network

are consulted. So by comparing the

hydrodynamicsimulations that will identify thethreshold values in terms of flow and rainfall to beused in the warning system.

The Alert System

thresholds is decided to alert the

Calabria” issues alert bulletins based onpossiblerisk scenarios and trasmitts“Protezione Civile”.

Alert Bulletins Figure 7 – Mike zero interfaceAlert Bulletins Figure 7 – Mike zero interface