avoiding „dangerous“ climate change jennifer l. morgan april 24, 2006
TRANSCRIPT
Avoiding „Dangerous“ Climate Change
Jennifer L. MorganApril 24, 2006
2.
The Greenhouse Effect
Solar radiation passes through the clear atmosphere
Some solar radiation is reflected by the
Earth and the atmosphere
Some of the infrared radiation Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere, passes through the atmosphere, and some is absorbed and and some is absorbed and re-emitted in all re-emitted in all directions by directions by greenhouse gas greenhouse gas molecules. The molecules. The effect of this effect of this is to warm is to warm the Earth’s the Earth’s surface and surface and the lower the lower atmosphere.atmosphere.
3.Rise of greenhouse gases concentration compared with year 1750
4.
Ultimate objective to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system ... within a time frame sufficient to:
• allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change
• ensure that food production is not threatened
• enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner
Article 2 of the Climate Convention
5.
Climate Change Impacts
6.Part 1
Danger Threshold
2°C
7.Context: Reasons for Concern (IPCC TAR
WGII)
8.
9.
10.
Broadleaf tree cover
(gridbox fraction) in coupled
climate-carbon cycle simulation
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
11.
2005:All-Time Record Year for Hurricanes
• 26 Tropical Storms in the Caribbean• 14 Hurricanes (≥117 km/h)• 5 Events in Categories IV & V
„Wilma“ Generating• Lowest-Ever Air Pressure (882 mb)• Highest-Ever Gale Speeds (340 km/h)
• „Vince“ and „Delta“ Reaching Europe
12.
“Millions at Risk”
14.Part 1
What CO2 concentrationcorresponds to 2°C?
15.Risk of overshooting 2°C (stabilisation)
16.The way to get to low stab. levels: peaking
17.Part 2
What are the necessary
global emission reductions?
18.Emissions relative to 1990
19.The Effect of Delay (same risk of overshooting)
20.Sir David King
“Delaying action for a decade, or even just years, is not a serious option” (Science, 9 January 2004)
21.
• For peaking at 475ppm and stabilization at 400ppm:– global GHG emissions have to be reduced by ~50%
below 1990 levels by 2050.
• Industrialised country emissions in 2020 will need to be reduced by about 15-30% below 1990 levels for 400-450 ppm Co2 Eq
• Participation of the USA and advanced developing countries in reduction commitments well before 2025 is needed
Emissions reductions required
22.
Non-Energy Use
1%
Final Consumption Transport
26%
Final Consumption Other Sectors
8%
Power Generation and Heat Plants (Coal)
33%
Power Generation and Heat Plants (Other fuels)
18%
Transformation, Own Use and Losses
4%
Final Consumption Industry
10%
Contribution of sectors 2002-2030
23.
Total emissions
(Source: EVOC model, Triptych approach)
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MtC
O2e
q.
EAsiaCPAsiaSAsiaMEAFRLAMREEURAIJPNRUS+EEUEU25USA
450 CO2 case, A1B scenario
Until 2010:• Annex I reaches Kyoto targets• Non-Annex I follows reference
24.
Results towards 450 ppmv CO2
Towards 450 ppmv CO2:
Threshold:10% below world average,
Convergence level:2.9 tCO2eq/cap
A1B scenarioExcl. LUCF CO2
0
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1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
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2045
2050
2055
2060
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2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
tCO
2eq
/cap
Annex I
Non Annex I
World total
Threshold
PhilippinesIndia
China
S. Africa
Kenya
Saudi Arabia
USAEU 25
Japan
Argentina
GHG per capita
25.Sir David King
• Solutions exist but are not being implemented at needed rate or scale– Energy efficiency has tremendous potential
across sectors– Renewable energy– CCS?
• Decouple GDP growth and energy intensity
• Money going into wrong places, have to turn the tide
Way forward?
26.Sir David King
• Assess what this means for our conservation priorities in WWF
• What does climate change mean for my ecoregion?
• How to buy some time while we all work together to get emissions down?
Way forward?
27.
WWF has the heart and the brains to make a huge difference
We need the will, the capacity and the courage to act together