Aviation AFD GuidanceAviation AFD GuidanceAn Airline PerspectiveAn Airline Perspective

Southwest Aviation Safety WorkshopSouthwest Aviation Safety WorkshopPhoenix, AZPhoenix, AZ

Ken WidelskiKen WidelskiMeteorologistMeteorologist

NWS: Lubbock, TXNWS: Lubbock, TX

AgendaAgenda• Basis for the studyBasis for the study• ContributorsContributors• Purpose for the Aviation Purpose for the Aviation

AFDAFD• Items that should be Items that should be

included in the AFDincluded in the AFD• Items that should not be Items that should not be

includedincluded• AFD usageAFD usage• SummarySummary

Basis for the studyBasis for the study• January 13January 13thth 2006: WFO Lubbock held a 2006: WFO Lubbock held a

Local BLAST leadership meeting.Local BLAST leadership meeting.• Guest Speaker: Rick CurtisGuest Speaker: Rick Curtis• Southwest Airlines and the National Southwest Airlines and the National

Weather Service are a partnershipWeather Service are a partnership• Our TAFS are used exclusively by flight Our TAFS are used exclusively by flight

dispatch for planning purposesdispatch for planning purposes• There is a need for a more effective There is a need for a more effective

communication method than the TAF communication method than the TAF alonealone

ContributorsContributors• A Collaborative effort developed A Collaborative effort developed

between WFO Lubbock, San Angelo between WFO Lubbock, San Angelo and eventually Austin/San Antonio.and eventually Austin/San Antonio.

• The common thread was to gain The common thread was to gain external feedback on how to external feedback on how to effectively communicate aviation effectively communicate aviation concerns through the AFD. concerns through the AFD.

• Rick Curtis became the main Rick Curtis became the main contributor.contributor.

Purpose for the Aviation Purpose for the Aviation AFDAFD

Airline PerspectiveAirline Perspective• Provides NWS Forecasters the Provides NWS Forecasters the

opportunity to briefly identify weather opportunity to briefly identify weather related items which may affect the related items which may affect the operations of an airport terminal.operations of an airport terminal.

• The product should provide aviation The product should provide aviation users with a better understanding of users with a better understanding of expected weather conditions during expected weather conditions during the short term (critical TAF period).the short term (critical TAF period).

• Communication method should be non Communication method should be non technical.technical.

Items to Include in the Items to Include in the AFDAFD

• The following items should be included The following items should be included onlyonly when situations warrant… when situations warrant…

1)1) PrecipitationPrecipitation -Type-Type -Start and Stop Times-Start and Stop Times -Special attention given to ice -Special attention given to ice

pellets,pellets, freezing rain, snowfall amounts freezing rain, snowfall amounts

andand intensityintensity

2) 2) WindsWinds -Threat of strong winds-Threat of strong winds -Wind shifts-Wind shifts -Cross wind activity -Cross wind activity (familiarization with (familiarization with

runways)runways)

3) 3) ThunderstormsThunderstorms -Coverage-Coverage -Duration-Duration -Likelihood-Likelihood

4) Frontal Passages4) Frontal Passages -Timing-Timing -Cause-Cause 5) Low Ceiling and Fog Potential5) Low Ceiling and Fog Potential -Timing-Timing -Cause-Cause 6) Visibility Obstructions6) Visibility Obstructions -Smoke-Smoke -Blowing Dust-Blowing Dust -Volcanic Ash-Volcanic Ash -Other -Other

7) Low Level Wind Shear 7) Low Level Wind Shear PotentialPotential

8) Changes in Flight Condition8) Changes in Flight Condition -Example…VFR to IFR-Example…VFR to IFR -Timing window to these-Timing window to these changeschanges

*9) TAF Confidence*9) TAF Confidence -Items that may have been left-Items that may have been left out of the TAF, but out of the TAF, but

considered.considered.

• TAF Confidence ExampleTAF Confidence Example

KSAT 061720Z 061818 13015KT P6SM SCT035 KSAT 061720Z 061818 13015KT P6SM SCT035 BKN150BKN150

FM0100 VRB05KTS P6SM SCT250 FM0100 VRB05KTS P6SM SCT250 Aviation DiscussionAviation Discussion One or Two isolated thunderstorms will One or Two isolated thunderstorms will

form along the sea breeze and may form along the sea breeze and may approach the KSST/KSAT TAF sites. approach the KSST/KSAT TAF sites. However, the chance of the thunderstorms However, the chance of the thunderstorms affecting even the vicinity area is less than affecting even the vicinity area is less than 5%, so mention of them has been left out of 5%, so mention of them has been left out of the TAFS.the TAFS.

Items that Should not be Items that Should not be IncludedIncluded

• A regurgitation of the TAFA regurgitation of the TAF TAF Example:TAF Example: KCRP 061720Z 061818 13007KT P6SM KCRP 061720Z 061818 13007KT P6SM

BKN008 BKN008 FM0100 29020G30KTS P6SM SCT250FM0100 29020G30KTS P6SM SCT250 CorrespondingCorresponding Aviation DiscussionAviation Discussion IFR ceilings with light winds will persist IFR ceilings with light winds will persist

at terminal KCRP Through 00z. Winds at terminal KCRP Through 00z. Winds will shift to the northwest and increase will shift to the northwest and increase to 20 to 30 KTS through the night. to 20 to 30 KTS through the night.

• Technical Jargon or lengthy descriptions Technical Jargon or lengthy descriptions of physical phenomena.of physical phenomena.

• Model ComparisonsModel Comparisons

• Long Range issues greater than 12 Long Range issues greater than 12 hourshours

unless a “heads up” approach is taken unless a “heads up” approach is taken for something very significant.for something very significant.

Example…Major winter storm, Example…Major winter storm, Hurricane, Hurricane,

ECT.ECT.

UsageUsage• The Aviation section of the AFD will be The Aviation section of the AFD will be

used mostly by used mostly by DispatchersDispatchers (occasionally Pilots)(occasionally Pilots) for the following for the following reasons…reasons…

1) Provides a high level understanding 1) Provides a high level understanding

of current weather for that area. of current weather for that area. Most Most dispatchers cover multiple dispatchers cover multiple geographic regions.geographic regions.

• Provides a “heads up” for additional Provides a “heads up” for additional contingency fuel for things that may contingency fuel for things that may not be worthy to be included within the not be worthy to be included within the TAF itself.TAF itself.

• Conveys a confidence level of the TAF Conveys a confidence level of the TAF itself. If there is a lot of “chance of itself. If there is a lot of “chance of this” and “chance of that” in the this” and “chance of that” in the Aviation section of the AFD, it will Aviation section of the AFD, it will communicate to the Dispatcher that communicate to the Dispatcher that there is a good chance for TAF there is a good chance for TAF amendments.amendments.

SummarySummary• Aviation section of the AFD is the Aviation section of the AFD is the

opportunity for the NWS forecaster to opportunity for the NWS forecaster to provide a concise summary of expected provide a concise summary of expected and potential weather events during the and potential weather events during the next 12 hours.next 12 hours.

• It is a chance to build on the TAF and to It is a chance to build on the TAF and to communicate specifics or reasoning communicate specifics or reasoning behind the TAF.behind the TAF.

• A good Aviation AFD is one that is A good Aviation AFD is one that is prepared with airport usages and prepared with airport usages and minimums in mind. minimums in mind.

• Airports that are mainly used for general Airports that are mainly used for general aviation should be handled differently than aviation should be handled differently than those with major airline activity.those with major airline activity.

• Airport hub locations (or large airports) Airport hub locations (or large airports) may be handled even differently due to the may be handled even differently due to the complexity of operations.complexity of operations.

• Forecasters should be familiar with airport Forecasters should be familiar with airport minimums and operating criteria. minimums and operating criteria.

These specifics do not need to be These specifics do not need to be included included

in the AFD but should serve as a in the AFD but should serve as a background to assist a forecaster for what background to assist a forecaster for what is is important at that particular airport important at that particular airport terminal. terminal.

• TAFS are what is used for TAFS are what is used for operational planning decisions.operational planning decisions.

• The Aviation AFD is a The Aviation AFD is a communication mechanism that can communication mechanism that can benefit both the forecaster and the benefit both the forecaster and the dispatcher if used correctly. dispatcher if used correctly. (Liason)(Liason)

• Forecasters can describe the details of Forecasters can describe the details of what went into the TAF and the what went into the TAF and the associated confidence level.associated confidence level.

• Dispatcher can benefit as it provides Dispatcher can benefit as it provides a background and various options a background and various options that were looked at and either that were looked at and either included or dismissed from the TAFincluded or dismissed from the TAF

• Forecaster insight and additional Forecaster insight and additional information compliments the TAF, information compliments the TAF, makes it more effective and helps makes it more effective and helps better manage expectations of the better manage expectations of the user.user.

Experimental AFD PageExperimental AFD Pagehttp://aviationweather.gov/testbed/afd/http://aviationweather.gov/testbed/afd/

Thank youThank youFor Attending.For Attending.

Any Questions?Any Questions?