Avian Flu Pandemic Avian Flu Pandemic Preparedness at the Preparedness at the

University of West FloridaUniversity of West Florida

Jim Hurd, Student AffairsJim Hurd, Student Affairs

Peter Robinson, Peter Robinson, Administrative AffairsAdministrative Affairs

Some History

Pandemic: An infectious disease epidemic that affects people worldwide or over an extensive geographical area.

There were three influenza pandemics in the 20th Century.

Recipe for a PandemicRecipe for a Pandemic Condition One

• –Novel virus

•Condition Two• Crosses species• Humans, pigs, tigers, cats

•Condition Three• Efficient, persistent human-to-human

transmission• Reassortment• Mutation

New Influenza Subtypes

H3N2 • 1968• Hong Kong Flu• 34,000 US deaths

H1N1• 1918 • Spanish Flu• >500,000 US deaths

New Influenza Subtypes

H5N1• 2003• Avian Flu *• Worldwide, 98 deaths out of 177 confirmed

infections as of 3-13-06

Susceptible Human Population

Humans have no pre-existing immunity to novel strains of influenza.

Every time the virus enters a new host, the

potential for mutations is present.

Country 

Total

cases deaths

Cambodia 4 4

China 15 10

Indonesia 29 22

Iraq 2 2

Thailand 22 14

Turkey 12 4

Viet Nam 93 42

Total 177 98

WHO confirmed cases of H5N1 as of 3-13-06

“No disease the world has ever known even remotely resembles the great influenza epidemic of 1918. Presumed to have begun when sick farm animals infected soldiers in Kansas, spreading and mutating into a lethal strain as troops carried it to Europe, it exploded across the world with unequaled ferocity and speed. It killed more people in twenty weeks than AIDS has killed in twenty years; it killed more people in a year than the plagues of the Middle Ages killed in a century. Victims bled from the ears and nose, turned blue from lack of oxygen, suffered aches that felt like bones being broken, and died. In the United States, where bodies were stacked without coffins on trucks, nearly seven times as many people died of influenza as in the First World War.”

Historical Facts - 1918Historical Facts - 1918

Death Toll Worldwide: 40 - 100 Million

Death Toll US: 500,000

Normal Season Flu Death Toll: 36,000

Most Susceptible Population Age: 15-34 Number of Flu-Orphans in NYC: 21,000

Historical FactsHistorical Facts

1957 Asian Flu -- US Deaths 69,800 1968 Hong Kong Flu – US Deaths 34,000 Pandemic Flu Scares: 1976 Swine Flu 1977 Russian Flu 1997 -1999 Avian Flu Non-Flu Scare: SARS Multi-Country Outbreak

“Let me be clear. It is only a matter of time before we discover H5N1 in America. The migration patterns of the wild fowl that carry the virus make its appearance here almost inevitable.”

Secretary Michael Leavitt, HHS

13 March 2006

Current Situation -- Avian Flu:

2003-2006 Outbreaks in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Europe, Southwest Asia and Africa

Bird to Human transmission still very rare

Human to Human transmission –one WHO confirmed case

World Health Organization World Health Organization Pandemic Alert RatingPandemic Alert Rating

Florida Department of HealthFlorida Department of Health Once the pandemic takes hold, we have to

assume that there will be little to No Help from the national or state level – not just for days, but for weeks, and perhaps months.

We have to assume that every county and every community will be pretty much on its own in an influenza pandemic.

County Health Department will have ICS Lead.

Department of Health Department of Health Planning AssumptionsPlanning Assumptions

Establish realistic goals based on experience and discussion. Planning is based on:• The historical record• Rapid world-wide spread – Carnegie Mellon U• Health care systems overload• Medical supplies inadequate – SNS Mock

Activation• Economic and social disruption• Short window for critical decision making• Influenza will spread quickly in a community.

0.01%-1% attack rate in one week.• 1918 influenza crossed U.S. in 3-4 weeks.

Starting PointStarting Point Background work in progressBackground work in progress

Establish a Planning Task Force to ensure all Establish a Planning Task Force to ensure all areas represented in the planning processareas represented in the planning process

Identify essential functions and personnelIdentify essential functions and personnel

Articulate duties and delegate responsibilitiesArticulate duties and delegate responsibilities

Educate campus about pandemic flu and our planEducate campus about pandemic flu and our plan

IssuesIssues

ClassesClasses Student absenteeismStudent absenteeism Alternate methods for completing course work – Alternate methods for completing course work –

ITS?ITS? Tuition refundsTuition refunds Traveling Faculty and StudentsTraveling Faculty and Students Resident and International studentsResident and International students Athletic events - on campus and away gamesAthletic events - on campus and away games

IssuesIssues

Public events – FOG, high school dances, Public events – FOG, high school dances, weddings in conference centerweddings in conference center

Food supplies – ChartwellsFood supplies – Chartwells

SecuritySecurity

ResearchResearch

MaintenanceMaintenance

IssuesIssues AdmissionsAdmissions

Financial AidFinancial Aid

ProcurementProcurement

InsuranceInsurance

PayrollPayroll

Communications – external & internalCommunications – external & internal

Recovery PlanRecovery Plan

Taskforce Functional RepresentationTaskforce Functional Representation Per ACHA Planning RecommendationsPer ACHA Planning Recommendations

Academic AffairsAcademic Affairs• International Programs International Programs • Academic Activities Academic Activities • Research Research • Enrollment ServicesEnrollment Services

Taskforce Functional RepresentationTaskforce Functional Representation Per ACHA Planning RecommendationsPer ACHA Planning Recommendations

Administrative AffairsAdministrative Affairs• Business & Auxiliary Services Business & Auxiliary Services • Financial Services Financial Services • Procurement & Contracts Procurement & Contracts • Facilities Management Facilities Management • Police Department Police Department • Environmental Health and SafetyEnvironmental Health and Safety

Taskforce Functional RepresentationTaskforce Functional Representation Per ACHA Planning RecommendationsPer ACHA Planning Recommendations

Student AffairsStudent Affairs• Student Health Services Student Health Services • Housing and Residence Life Housing and Residence Life • SGASGA

Taskforce Functional RepresentationTaskforce Functional Representation Per ACHA Planning RecommendationsPer ACHA Planning Recommendations

President’s DivisionPresident’s Division• Marketing Communications Marketing Communications • Human Resources Human Resources • ITSITS