avenidas maximas belempata
DESCRIPTION
HidrologiaTRANSCRIPT
ESTACION : QUILLABAMBA LAT :
PARAMETRO : PRECIPITACION MAXIMA 24 HORAS (mm) LONG :
ALT :
AÑO ENE. FEB. MAR. ABR. MAY. JUN. JUL AGO.
1996 22.0 21.0 18.0 15.4 21.0 2.5 6.1 16.7
1997 30.7 40.2 20.2 17.2 11.0 16.8 3.0 29.5
1998 39.4 24.5 38.4 19.2 4.2 4.8 1.0
1999 27.5 59.0 46.4 49.5 26.5 6.4 6.6
2000 57.9 44.7 20.0 15.5 7.6 15.8 0.6 14.2
2001 44.7 44.3 30.3 14.0 10.6 2.2 15.0 9.5
2002 21.8 54.5 47.1 10.3 9.2 5.5 12.9 23.1
2003 46.2 36.0 30.0 24.6 5.6 3.4 5.0 27.5
2004 21.2 31.0 21.8 18.4 6.6 38.1 14.5
2005 29.4 28.3 28.2 26.2 24.6 6.9 20.3 5.2
2006 49.0 23.4 43.6 39.2 4.2 8.2 4.5 14.8
2007 52.6 18.9 20.3 31.5 17.3 10.2 7.1
2008 53.1 22.8 15.6 34.0 7.9 0.6 10.8 19.2
2009 38.2 28.0 9.8 6.5 2.3 7.8 4.0
2010 18.4 83.8 36.8 26.8 7.6 9.4 9.0 13.4
2011 24.2 34.6 30.4 28.0 15.2 12.0 12.4 26.8
MAXIMO 57.90 83.80 47.10 49.50 26.50 16.80 38.10 29.50
PROMEDIO 35.87 37.83 29.69 24.08 12.34 7.10 10.61 15.67
MINIMO 18.40 18.90 15.60 9.80 4.20 0.60 0.60 1.00
1996 22 21 18 15.4 21 2.5 6.1 16.71997 30.7 40.2 20.2 17.2 11 16.8 3 29.51998 39.4 24.5 38.4 19.2 4.2 4.8 11999 27.5 59 46.4 49.5 26.5 6.4 6.62000 57.9 44.7 20 15.5 7.6 15.8 0.6 14.22001 44.7 44.3 30.3 14 10.6 2.2 15 9.52002 21.8 54.5 47.1 10.3 9.2 5.5 12.9 23.12003 46.2 36 30 24.6 5.6 3.4 5 27.52004 21.2 31 21.8 18.4 6.6 38.1 14.52005 29.4 28.3 28.2 26.2 24.6 6.9 20.3 5.22006 49 23.4 43.6 39.2 4.2 8.2 4.5 14.82007 52.6 18.9 20.3 31.5 17.3 10.2 7.12008 53.1 22.8 15.6 34 7.9 0.6 10.8 19.22009 26.2 38.2 28 9.8 6.5 2.3 7.8 4
2010 18.4 83.8 36.8 26.8 7.6 9.4 9 13.42011 24.2 34.6 30.4 28 15.2 12 12.4 26.8
12° 51' 21" DPTO : CUSCO
72° 41' 30" PROV : LA CONVENCION
990 m.s.n.m. DIST : SANTA ANA
SET. OCT. NOV. DIC. MAXIMA
17.8 17.5 17.0 20.5 22.00
20.0 32.4 32.0 20.9 40.20
63.8 24.8 12.0 34.3 63.80
13.7 26.5 20.5 25.9 59.00
17.0 25.3 13.1 20.0 57.90
11.2 25.3 33.2 16.5 44.70
8.0 25.3 25.2 57.1 57.10
22.3 20.4 22.3 27.0 46.20
14.0 19.2 28.9 20.0 38.10
15.7 18.5 8.1 40.6 40.60
5.9 18.8 25.9 26.9 49.00
5.5 38.0 32.3 19.7 52.60
18.5 24.2 16.2 27.8 53.10
5.0 33.2 54.0 25.2 54.00
22.2 54.6 25.4 26.6 83.80
7.8 49.0 34.0 31.0 49.00
63.80 54.60 54.00 57.10 83.80
16.78 28.31 25.01 27.50 50.69
5.00 17.50 8.10 16.50 22.00
17.8 17.5 17 20.520 32.4 32 20.9
63.8 24.8 12 34.313.7 26.5 20.5 25.9
17 25.3 13.1 20 0.0 0.0 0.011.2 33.2 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 25.3 25.2 57.1 0.0 0.0 0.022.3 20.4 22.3 27 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 19.2 28.9 20 0.0 0.0 0.015.7 18.5 8.1 40.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
5.9 18.8 25.9 26.9 0.0 0.0 0.05.5 38 32.3 19.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
18.5 24.2 16.2 27.8 0.0 0.0 0.05 33.2 54 25.2 -26.2 0.0 0.0
22.2 54.6 25.4 26.6 0.0 0.0 0.07.8 49 34 31 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.00.0 0.00.0 0.00.0 0.00.0 0.00.0 0.00.0 0.00.0 0.00.0 0.00.0 0.0
0.0 0.00.0 0.0
Precipitación Máxima
Nº Año Mes Nº
1 1996 Enero 22.0 1
2 1997 Febrero 40.2 2
3 1998 Setiembre 63.8 3
4 1999 Febrero 59.0 4
5 2000 Enero 57.9 5
6 2001 Enero 44.7 6
7 2002 Diciembre 57.1 7
8 2003 Enero 46.2 8
9 2004 Julio 38.1 9
10 2005 Diciembre 40.6 10
11 2006 Enero 49.0 11
12 2007 Enero 52.6 12
13 2008 Enero 53.1 13
14 2009 Noviembre 54.0 14
15 2010 Febrero 83.8 15
16 2011 Octubre 49.0 16
Pp max. 24 horas (mm)
Dato excluido
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Año
Prec
ipit
acio
n (m
m)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Año
Prec
ipit
acio
n (m
m)
Año
1996 24.9
1997 45.4
1998 72.1
1999 66.7
2000 65.4
2001 50.5
2002 64.5
2003 52.2
2004 43.1
2005 45.9
2006 55.4
2007 59.4
2008 60.0
2009 61.0
2010 94.7
2011 55.4
Pp max. 24 horas corregida
(mm)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Año
Prec
ipit
acio
n (m
m)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Año
Prec
ipit
acio
n (m
m)
Precipitación Máxima
Nº Año
Quillabamba
Quillabamba Quillabamba LS LI
1 1996 22.0 1.342 94.532 25.289
2 1997 40.2 1.604 94.532 25.289
3 1998 63.8 1.805 94.532 25.289
4 1999 59.0 1.771 94.532 25.289
5 2000 57.9 1.763 94.532 25.289
6 2001 44.7 1.650 94.532 25.289
7 2002 57.1 1.757 94.532 25.289
8 2003 46.2 1.665 94.532 25.289
9 2004 38.1 1.581 94.532 25.289
10 2005 40.6 1.609 94.532 25.289
11 2006 49.0 1.690 94.532 25.289
12 2007 52.6 1.721 94.532 25.289
13 2008 53.1 1.725 94.532 25.289
14 2009 54.0 1.732 94.532 25.289
15 2010 83.8 1.923 94.532 25.289
16 2011 49.0 1.690 94.532 25.289
Pp max. 24 horas (mm)
Log Pp max. 24 horas (mm)
Quillabamba
Media 1.689
Desviacion Estandar 0.1256
n 16
Kn 2.279
1.98
1.40
Limite Superior 94.53
Limite Inferior 25.29
YL (superior)
YL (inferior)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Año
Prec
ipit
acio
n (m
m)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Año
Prec
ipit
acio
n (m
m)
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)ESTACION QUILLABAMBA
Distribution Analysis: Normal Distribution First Moment (mean) = 55.7064 Second Moment = 5.261e01 Skew = -3.007e-01
Numero
1 0.0833 43.10 45.672 0.1667 45.90 48.693 0.25 50.50 50.824 0.3333 52.20 52.595 0.4167 55.37 54.186 0.5 55.40 55.717 0.5833 59.40 57.238 0.6667 60.00 58.839 0.75 61.00 60.60
10 0.8333 64.50 62.7211 0.9167 65.40 65.74
Predicciones
0.98 50 70.61 4.9960.96 25 68.41 4.4100.95 20 67.64 4.211
0.9 10 65.00 3.5550.8 5 61.81 2.858
Weibull Probabilidad
Valor Actual
Valor Previsto
Prob. de no Excedencia
Perido de Retorno
Valor Calculado
Desviación Standard
Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver. 6.3
Actual Data
Distribution
Normal Distribution
Weibull Probability
Value
0
20
40
60
80
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)ESTACION QUILLABAMBA Distribution Analysis: Normal Distribution
Distribution Analysis: Normal Distribution ------------------Summary of Data ----------------------- First Moment (mean) = 55.7064 Second Moment = 5.261e01 Skew = -3.007e-01--------------------------------------------------------- Point Weibull Actual Predicted Standard
3.7328 Number Probability Value Value Deviation3.0427 ---------------------------------------------------------2.6375 1 0.0833 43.1000 45.6735 3.73282.3808 2 0.1667 45.9000 48.6898 3.04272.2346 3 0.2500 50.5000 50.8163 2.63752.1869 4 0.3333 52.2000 52.5853 2.38082.2346 5 0.4167 55.3700 54.1828 2.23462.3808 6 0.5000 55.4000 55.7064 2.18692.6375 7 0.5833 59.4000 57.2299 2.23463.0427 8 0.6667 60.0000 58.8274 2.38083.7328 9 0.7500 61.0000 60.5964 2.6375
10 0.8333 64.5000 62.7229 3.0427 11 0.9167 65.4000 65.7393 3.7328-------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------- Exceedence Return Calculated Standard Probability Period Value Deviation--------------------------------------------------------- 0.9800 50.0 70.6059 4.9964 0.9600 25.0 68.4073 4.4099 0.9500 20.0 67.6395 4.2105 0.9000 10.0 65.0031 3.5552 0.8000 5.0 61.8097 2.8581---------------------------------------------------------
Desviación Standard
Actual Data
Distribution
Normal Distribution
Weibull Probability
Value
0
20
40
60
80
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Distribution Analysis: Normal Distribution------------------Summary of Data -----------------------
--------------------------------------------------------- Point Weibull Actual Predicted Standard Number Probability Value Value Deviation--------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.0833 43.1000 45.6735 3.7328 2 0.1667 45.9000 48.6898 3.0427 3 0.2500 50.5000 50.8163 2.6375 4 0.3333 52.2000 52.5853 2.3808 5 0.4167 55.3700 54.1828 2.2346 6 0.5000 55.4000 55.7064 2.1869 7 0.5833 59.4000 57.2299 2.2346 8 0.6667 60.0000 58.8274 2.3808 9 0.7500 61.0000 60.5964 2.6375 10 0.8333 64.5000 62.7229 3.0427 11 0.9167 65.4000 65.7393 3.7328-------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions --------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)ESTACION QUILLABAMBA
Distribution Analysis: 2 Parameter Log Normal First Moment (mean) = 55.7064 Second Moment = 5.261e01 Skew = -3.007e-01
Numero
1 0.0833 43.10 46.172 0.1667 45.90 48.733 0.25 50.50 50.624 0.3333 52.20 52.245 0.4167 55.37 53.766 0.5 55.40 55.247 0.5833 59.40 56.778 0.6667 60.00 58.419 0.75 61.00 60.29
10 0.8333 64.50 62.6211 0.9167 65.40 66.09
Predicciones
0.98 50 72.10 4.7880.96 25 69.32 4.2300.95 20 68.37 4.045
0.9 10 65.23 3.4550.8 5 61.61 2.848
Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver. 6.3
Weibull Probabilidad
Valor Actual
Valor Previsto
Prob. de no Excedencia
Perido de Retorno
Valor Calculado
Desviación Standard
Actual Data
Distribution
2 Parameter Log Normal
Weibull Probability
Value
0
20
40
60
80
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)ESTACION QUILLABAMBA Distribution Analysis: 2 Parameter Log Normal
Distribution Analysis: 2 Parameter Log Normal ------------------Summary of Data ----------------------- First Moment (mean) = 55.7064 Second Moment = 5.261e01 Skew = -3.007e-01--------------------------------------------------------- Point Weibull Actual Predicted Standard
2.6487 Number Probability Value Value Deviation2.3438 ---------------------------------------------------------2.1918 1 0.0833 43.1000 46.1705 2.64872.1227 2 0.1667 45.9000 48.7284 2.34382.1152 3 0.2500 50.5000 50.6163 2.19182.1617 4 0.3333 52.2000 52.2426 2.12272.2616 5 0.4167 55.3700 53.7559 2.11522.4209 6 0.5000 55.4000 55.2401 2.16172.6559 7 0.5833 59.4000 56.7652 2.26163.0079 8 0.6667 60.0000 58.4096 2.42093.6125 9 0.7500 61.0000 60.2862 2.6559
10 0.8333 64.5000 62.6219 3.0079 11 0.9167 65.4000 66.0912 3.6125-------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------- Exceedence Return Calculated Standard Probability Period Value Deviation--------------------------------------------------------- 0.9800 50.0 72.0983 4.7880 0.9600 25.0 69.3197 4.2300 0.9500 20.0 68.3747 4.0453 0.9000 10.0 65.2271 3.4549 0.8000 5.0 61.6079 2.8482---------------------------------------------------------
Desviación Standard
Actual Data
Distribution
2 Parameter Log Normal
Weibull Probability
Value
0
20
40
60
80
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Distribution Analysis: 2 Parameter Log Normal------------------Summary of Data -----------------------
--------------------------------------------------------- Point Weibull Actual Predicted Standard Number Probability Value Value Deviation--------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.0833 43.1000 46.1705 2.6487 2 0.1667 45.9000 48.7284 2.3438 3 0.2500 50.5000 50.6163 2.1918 4 0.3333 52.2000 52.2426 2.1227 5 0.4167 55.3700 53.7559 2.1152 6 0.5000 55.4000 55.2401 2.1617 7 0.5833 59.4000 56.7652 2.2616 8 0.6667 60.0000 58.4096 2.4209 9 0.7500 61.0000 60.2862 2.6559 10 0.8333 64.5000 62.6219 3.0079 11 0.9167 65.4000 66.0912 3.6125-------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions --------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)ESTACION QUILLABAMBA
Distribution Analysis: Pearson Type III First Moment (mean) = 55.7064 Second Moment = 5.261e01 Skew = -3.007e-01
Numero
1 0.0833 43.10 45.092 0.1667 45.90 48.913 0.25 50.50 51.414 0.3333 52.20 53.375 0.4167 55.37 55.046 0.5 55.40 56.567 0.5833 59.40 58.008 0.6667 60.00 59.449 0.75 61.00 60.93
10 0.8333 64.50 62.6111 0.9167 65.40 64.77
Predicciones
0.98 50 67.73 3.7550.96 25 66.47 2.9160.95 20 66.00 2.680
0.9 10 64.26 2.1410.8 5 61.91 2.041
Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver. 6.3
Weibull Probabilidad
Valor Actual
Valor Previsto
Prob. de no Excedencia
Perido de Retorno
Valor Calculado
Desviación Standard
Actual Data
Distribution
Pearson Type III
Weibull Probability
Value
0
20
40
60
80
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)ESTACION QUILLABAMBA
Distribution Analysis: Pearson Type III
Distribution Analysis: Pearson Type III------------------Summary of Data ----------------------- First Moment (mean) = 55.7064 Second Moment = 5.261e01
4.2901 Skew = -3.007e-013.2226 ---------------------------------------------------------2.8325 Point Weibull Actual Predicted Standard2.6518 Number Probability Value Value Deviation2.542 ---------------------------------------------------------
2.4489 1 0.0833 43.1000 45.0865 4.29012.3486 2 0.1667 45.9000 48.9122 3.22262.2318 3 0.2500 50.5000 51.4100 2.83252.1049 4 0.3333 52.2000 53.3668 2.65182.0205 5 0.4167 55.3700 55.0419 2.54202.2465 6 0.5000 55.4000 56.5603 2.4489
7 0.5833 59.4000 58.0033 2.3486 8 0.6667 60.0000 59.4376 2.2318 9 0.7500 61.0000 60.9343 2.1049 10 0.8333 64.5000 62.6103 2.0205 11 0.9167 65.4000 64.7666 2.2465-------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------- Exceedence Return Calculated Standard Probability Period Value Deviation--------------------------------------------------------- 0.9800 50.0 67.7336 3.7547 0.9600 25.0 66.4685 2.9162 0.9500 20.0 65.9978 2.6799 0.9000 10.0 64.2635 2.1409 0.8000 5.0 61.9067 2.0412---------------------------------------------------------
Desviación Standard
Actual Data
Distribution
Pearson Type III
Weibull Probability
Value
0
20
40
60
80
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
------------------Summary of Data -----------------------
--------------------------------------------------------- Point Weibull Actual Predicted Standard Number Probability Value Value Deviation--------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.0833 43.1000 45.0865 4.2901 2 0.1667 45.9000 48.9122 3.2226 3 0.2500 50.5000 51.4100 2.8325 4 0.3333 52.2000 53.3668 2.6518 5 0.4167 55.3700 55.0419 2.5420 6 0.5000 55.4000 56.5603 2.4489 7 0.5833 59.4000 58.0033 2.3486 8 0.6667 60.0000 59.4376 2.2318 9 0.7500 61.0000 60.9343 2.1049 10 0.8333 64.5000 62.6103 2.0205 11 0.9167 65.4000 64.7666 2.2465-------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions --------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)ESTACION QUILLABAMBA
Distribution Analysis: Log Pearson Type III First Moment (mean) = 55.7064 Second Moment = 5.261e01 Skew = -3.007e-01
Numero
1 0.0833 43.10 44.392 0.1667 45.90 48.233 0.25 50.50 50.854 0.3333 52.20 52.975 0.4167 55.37 54.826 0.5 55.40 56.537 0.5833 59.40 58.178 0.6667 60.00 59.829 0.75 61.00 61.55
10 0.8333 64.50 63.5011 0.9167 65.40 66.00
Predicciones
0.98 50 69.36 5.6720.96 25 67.94 4.1690.95 20 67.41 3.728
0.9 10 65.42 2.6560.8 5 62.68 2.389
Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver. 6.3
Weibull Probabilidad
Valor Actual
Valor Previsto
Prob. de no Excedencia
Perido de Retorno
Valor Calculado
Desviación Standard
Actual Data
Distribution
Log Pearson Type III
Weibull Probability
Value
0
20
40
60
80
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)ESTACION QUILLABAMBA Distribution Analysis: Log Pearson Type III
Distribution Analysis: Log Pearson Type III ------------------Summary of Data ----------------------- First Moment (mean) = 55.7064 Second Moment = 5.261e01 Skew = -3.007e-01--------------------------------------------------------- Point Weibull Actual Predicted Standard
4.2031 Number Probability Value Value Deviation3.3455 ---------------------------------------------------------3.0859 1 0.0833 43.1000 44.3898 4.20313.0049 2 0.1667 45.9000 48.2290 3.34552.9651 3 0.2500 50.5000 50.8539 3.08592.9107 4 0.3333 52.2000 52.9709 3.00492.8157 5 0.4167 55.3700 54.8219 2.96512.6693 6 0.5000 55.4000 56.5276 2.91072.4841 7 0.5833 59.4000 58.1696 2.81572.3673 8 0.6667 60.0000 59.8182 2.66932.8779 9 0.7500 61.0000 61.5513 2.4841
10 0.8333 64.5000 63.4992 2.3673 11 0.9167 65.4000 65.9975 2.8779-------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------- Exceedence Return Calculated Standard Probability Period Value Deviation--------------------------------------------------------- 0.9800 50.0 69.3551 5.6718 0.9600 25.0 67.9416 4.1693 0.9500 20.0 67.4078 3.7281 0.9000 10.0 65.4170 2.6560 0.8000 5.0 62.6812 2.3888---------------------------------------------------------
Desviación Standard
Actual Data
Distribution
Log Pearson Type III
Weibull Probability
Value
0
20
40
60
80
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Distribution Analysis: Log Pearson Type III------------------Summary of Data -----------------------
--------------------------------------------------------- Point Weibull Actual Predicted Standard Number Probability Value Value Deviation--------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.0833 43.1000 44.3898 4.2031 2 0.1667 45.9000 48.2290 3.3455 3 0.2500 50.5000 50.8539 3.0859 4 0.3333 52.2000 52.9709 3.0049 5 0.4167 55.3700 54.8219 2.9651 6 0.5000 55.4000 56.5276 2.9107 7 0.5833 59.4000 58.1696 2.8157 8 0.6667 60.0000 59.8182 2.6693 9 0.7500 61.0000 61.5513 2.4841 10 0.8333 64.5000 63.4992 2.3673 11 0.9167 65.4000 65.9975 2.8779-------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions --------------------------
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PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)ESTACION QUILLABAMBA
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I First Moment (mean) = 55.7064 Second Moment = 5.261e01 Skew = -3.007e-01
Numero
1 0.0833 43.10 44.782 0.1667 45.90 47.323 0.25 50.50 49.314 0.3333 52.20 51.115 0.4167 55.37 52.876 0.5 55.40 54.687 0.5833 59.40 56.628 0.6667 60.00 58.839 0.75 61.00 61.49
10 0.8333 64.50 65.0211 0.9167 65.40 70.75
Predicciones
0.98 50 82.07 9.3680.96 25 76.62 7.7620.95 20 74.85 7.244
0.9 10 69.27 5.6300.8 5 63.46 4.008
Fuente: Resultados obtenidos en base al Software SMADA ver. 6.3
Weibull Probabilidad
Valor Actual
Valor Previsto
Prob. de no Excedencia
Perido de Retorno
Valor Calculado
Desviación Standard
Actual Data
Distribution
Gumbel Extremal Type I
Weibull Probability
Value
0
20
40
60
80
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)ESTACION QUILLABAMBA Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I ------------------Summary of Data ----------------------- First Moment (mean) = 55.7064 Second Moment = 5.261e01 Skew = -3.007e-01--------------------------------------------------------- Point Weibull Actual Predicted Standard
2.7242 Number Probability Value Value Deviation2.2084 ---------------------------------------------------------1.923 1 0.0833 43.1000 44.7837 2.7242
1.8027 2 0.1667 45.9000 47.3174 2.20841.839 3 0.2500 50.5000 49.3051 1.9230
2.0259 4 0.3333 52.2000 51.1070 1.80272.3555 5 0.4167 55.3700 52.8660 1.83902.8312 6 0.5000 55.4000 54.6752 2.02593.488 7 0.5833 59.4000 56.6239 2.3555
4.4351 8 0.6667 60.0000 58.8294 2.83126.0555 9 0.7500 61.0000 61.4881 3.4880
10 0.8333 64.5000 65.0216 4.4351 11 0.9167 65.4000 70.7526 6.0555-------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions -------------------------- Exceedence Return Calculated Standard Probability Period Value Deviation--------------------------------------------------------- 0.9800 50.0 82.0655 9.3677 0.9600 25.0 76.6160 7.7615 0.9500 20.0 74.8469 7.2436 0.9000 10.0 69.2701 5.6302 0.8000 5.0 63.4563 4.0082---------------------------------------------------------
Desviación Standard
Actual Data
Distribution
Gumbel Extremal Type I
Weibull Probability
Value
0
20
40
60
80
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Distribution Analysis: Gumbel Extremal Type I------------------Summary of Data -----------------------
--------------------------------------------------------- Point Weibull Actual Predicted Standard Number Probability Value Value Deviation--------------------------------------------------------- 1 0.0833 43.1000 44.7837 2.7242 2 0.1667 45.9000 47.3174 2.2084 3 0.2500 50.5000 49.3051 1.9230 4 0.3333 52.2000 51.1070 1.8027 5 0.4167 55.3700 52.8660 1.8390 6 0.5000 55.4000 54.6752 2.0259 7 0.5833 59.4000 56.6239 2.3555 8 0.6667 60.0000 58.8294 2.8312 9 0.7500 61.0000 61.4881 3.4880 10 0.8333 64.5000 65.0216 4.4351 11 0.9167 65.4000 70.7526 6.0555-------------------------------------------------------------------------- Predictions --------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
PRUEBA DE KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOVDistribución Normal.- Precipitación Máxima en 24 horas
Estación Quillabamba
m P(mm) z Abs(Fo-Fz)
1 43.10 -1.738 0.041 0.083 0.042
2 45.90 -1.352 0.088 0.167 0.078
3 50.50 -0.718 0.236 0.250 0.014
4 52.20 -0.483 0.314 0.333 0.019
5 55.37 -0.046 0.482 0.417 0.065
6 55.40 -0.042 0.483 0.500 0.017
7 59.40 0.509 0.695 0.583 0.111
8 60.00 0.592 0.723 0.667 0.056
9 61.00 0.730 0.767 0.750 0.017
10 64.50 1.212 0.887 0.833 0.054
11 65.40 1.336 0.909 0.917 0.007
Media 55.706 0.111Desv. Est(S) 7.253
0.391
n= 11
α=0.05
Normal Gumbel
50 70.61 72.10 67.73 69.36 82.07
25 68.41 69.32 66.47 67.94 76.62
20 67.64 68.37 66.00 67.41 74.85
10 65.00 65.23 64.26 65.42 69.27
5 61.81 61.61 61.91 62.68 63.46
Maximo Registrado: 65.40 mm N° Datos: 11
Probabilidad teórica
F(z)
Fo probabilidad
empírica (m/n+1)
Dmax
d crítico =
T (años)
Log Normal
Pearson Tipo III
Log Pearson Tipo III
PRUEBA DE KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOVDistribución Log Normal.- Precipitación Máxima en 24 horas
Estación Quillabamba
m P (mm) LnP z
1 43.10 3.764 -1.844 0.033 0.083
2 45.90 3.826 -1.377 0.084 0.167
3 50.50 3.922 -0.668 0.252 0.250
4 52.20 3.955 -0.423 0.336 0.333
5 55.37 4.014 0.015 0.506 0.417
6 55.40 4.015 0.019 0.508 0.500
7 59.40 4.084 0.536 0.704 0.583
8 60.00 4.094 0.611 0.729 0.667
9 61.00 4.111 0.733 0.768 0.750
10 64.50 4.167 1.147 0.874 0.833
11 65.40 4.181 1.250 0.894 0.917
Media 4.012Desv. Est(S) 0.135
0.391
n= 11
α=0.05
Probabilidad teórica
F(z)
Fo probabilidad
empírica (m/n+1)
Dmax
d crítico =
PRUEBA DE KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV PRUEBA DE KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOVDistribución Log Normal.- Precipitación Máxima en 24 horas Distribución Pearson Tipo III- Precipitación Máxima en 24 horas
Estación Quillabamba Estación Quillabamba
Abs(Fo-Fz) N X 2Y
0.051 1 43.10 15.882 31.763 48.963
0.082 2 45.90 17.792 35.584 48.963
0.002 3 50.50 20.930 41.859 48.963
0.003 4 52.20 22.089 44.179 48.963
0.089 5 55.37 24.252 48.504 48.963
0.008 6 55.40 24.272 48.545 48.963
0.121 7 59.40 27.001 54.002 48.963
0.063 8 60.00 27.410 54.820 48.963
0.018 9 61.00 28.092 56.185 48.963
0.041 10 64.50 30.480 60.960 48.963
0.022 11 65.40 31.094 62.188 48.963
0.121 Media 55.71Desv.Est(S) 7.25
sesgo(γ) -0.4042 0.391
24.4813 n= 11
1.4659 α=0.05
19.8186
Y=(x-δ1)/α1 2β1
d crítico =
β1=(2/γ)2
α1=S/√β1
δ1=X-α1β1
PRUEBA DE KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV PRUEBA DE KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOVDistribución Pearson Tipo III- Precipitación Máxima en 24 horas Distribución Log Pearson Tipo III- Precipitación Máxima en 24 horas
Estación Quillabamba Estación Quillabamba
χ2 Fx Fo Abs(Fo-Fx) N X LnX
0.966 0.034 0.083 0.049 1 43.10 3.7635
0.908 0.092 0.167 0.074 2 45.90 3.8265
0.721 0.279 0.250 0.029 3 50.50 3.9220
0.630 0.370 0.333 0.037 4 52.20 3.9551
0.453 0.547 0.417 0.131 5 55.37 4.0140
0.451 0.549 0.500 0.049 6 55.40 4.0146
0.256 0.744 0.583 0.161 7 59.40 4.0843
0.232 0.768 0.667 0.102 8 60.00 4.0943
0.195 0.805 0.750 0.055 9 61.00 4.1109
0.099 0.901 0.833 0.067 10 64.50 4.1667
0.082 0.918 0.917 0.001 11 65.40 4.1805
0.161 Media 4.01Desv.Est(S) 0.1348
sesgo(γ) -0.6127
10.654
0.0413
3.5722
Dmax
β1=(2/γ)2
α1=S/√β1
δ1=X-α1β1
PRUEBA DE KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOVDistribución Log Pearson Tipo III- Precipitación Máxima en 24 horas
Estación Quillabamba
2Y χ2 Fx Fo Abs(Fo-Fx)
4.6349 9.2698 21.3073 0.9869 0.0131 0.0833 0.0703
6.1593 12.3187 21.3073 0.9306 0.0694 0.1667 0.0973
8.4725 16.9450 21.3073 0.7144 0.2856 0.2500 0.0356
9.2744 18.5487 21.3073 0.6141 0.3859 0.3333 0.0526
10.7022 21.4045 21.3073 0.4345 0.5655 0.4167 0.1488
10.7153 21.4307 21.3073 0.4329 0.5671 0.5000 0.0671
12.4038 24.8076 21.3073 0.2556 0.7444 0.5833 0.1611
12.6472 25.2944 21.3073 0.2346 0.7654 0.6667 0.0987
13.0475 26.0951 21.3073 0.2028 0.7972 0.7500 0.0472
14.3988 28.7975 21.3073 0.1189 0.8811 0.8333 0.0477
14.7344 29.4688 21.3073 0.1032 0.8968 0.9167 0.0199
0.161
0.391
n= 11
α=0.05
Y=(x-δ1)/α1 2β1
Dmax
d crítico =
PRUEBA DE KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOVDistribución Gumbel.- Precipitación Máxima en 24 horas
Estación Quillabamba
N X Fx Fo Abs(Fo-Fx)
1 43.10 0.0418 0.0833 0.0415
2 45.90 0.1108 0.1667 0.0559
3 50.50 0.2997 0.2500 0.0497
4 52.20 0.3812 0.3333 0.0478
5 55.37 0.5289 0.4167 0.1123
6 55.40 0.5303 0.5000 0.0303
7 59.40 0.6868 0.5833 0.1034
8 60.00 0.7065 0.6667 0.0399
9 61.00 0.7373 0.7500 0.0127
10 64.50 0.8247 0.8333 0.0086
11 65.40 0.8426 0.9167 0.0741
Media 55.71 0.112Desv.Est(S) 7.25
uy 0.4952 0.391
σy 0.9496 n= 11
Alfa 0.13092 α=0.05
Beta 51.92395exp(1) 2.71828
TABLA DE GUMBEL
n my sy
10 0.4952 0.9496
15 0.5128 1.0206
20 0.5236 1.0628
25 0.5309 1.0914
Dmax
d crítico =
30 0.5362 1.1124
35 0.5403 1.128537 0.54162 1.1336240 0.5436 1.141345 0.5463 1.151850 0.5485 1.160755 0.5504 1.168260 0.5521 1.174765 0.5535 1.180370 0.5548 1.185475 0.5559 1.189880 0.5569 1.193885 0.5578 1.197490 0.5586 1.200795 0.5593 1.2037
100 0.56 1.2065
formula de bellCuadro N°04: Lluvias máximas (mm).- Estación Quillabamba
T (años)Duración en minutos
5 10 15 20 30 60 120
50 70.61 7.35 11.01 13.46 15.35 18.27 23.98 30.79
25 68.41 6.56 9.81 12.00 13.69 16.28 21.38 27.44
20 67.64 6.30 9.43 11.53 13.15 15.65 20.54 26.37
10 65.00 5.50 8.23 10.07 11.48 13.66 17.83 23.03
5 61.81 4.70 7.04 8.61 9.82 11.68 15.34 19.69
Fuente: Elaboración propia
Cuadro N°05: Intensidades máximas (mm/hora).- Estación Quillabamba
T (años)Duración en minutos
5 10 15 20 30 60 120
50 70.61 88.20 66.00 53.80 46.10 36.50 24.00 15.40
25 68.41 78.70 58.90 48.00 41.10 32.60 21.40 13.70
20 67.64 75.60 56.60 46.10 39.50 31.30 20.50 13.20
10 65.00 66.00 49.40 40.30 34.50 27.30 17.80 11.50
5 61.81 56.40 42.20 34.40 29.50 23.40 15.30 9.80
Fuente: Elaboración propia
Resultado del Análisis de Regresión:
0.9967K= 110.63
0.9934m= 0.195
R^2 ajustado 0.9930 n= 0.557
Error típico 0.0213
Observaciones 35 Donde:
Log (K) 2.0439 I= mm/h
m 0.1951 T= años
n -0.5568 t= minutos
Resumen
Resumen
P.Max 24 horas
P.Max 24 horas
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 I = 110.63 T 0.195
t0.557
Estadísticas de la regresiónCoeficiente 0.9967042Coeficiente 0.9934194R^2 ajusta 0.9930081Error típico 0.0212771Observacio 35
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZAGrados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 2 2.186945 1.093473 2415.373 1.24E-35Residuos 32 0.014487 0.000453Total 34 2.201432
CoeficientesError típicoEstadístico tProbabilidadInferior 95%Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%Intercepció 2.0438743 0.017442 117.1795 1.02E-43 2.008346 2.079403 2.008346 2.079403Log (T) 0.1950899 0.010492 18.5943 1.03E-18 0.173719 0.216461 0.173719 0.216461Log (t) -0.5568426 0.008315 -66.97012 5.65E-36 -0.573779 -0.539906 -0.573779 -0.539906
3.31
198.6
Y X1 X2
Log (I) Log (T) Log (t)
1.945469 1.698970 0.698970
1.895975 1.397940 0.698970
1.878522 1.301030 0.698970
1.819544 1.000000 0.698970
1.751279 0.698970 0.698970
1.819544 1.698970 1.000000
1.770115 1.397940 1.000000
1.752816 1.301030 1.000000
1.693727 1.000000 1.000000
1.625312 0.698970 1.000000
1.730782 1.698970 1.176091
1.681241 1.397940 1.176091
1.663701 1.301030 1.176091
1.605305 1.000000 1.176091
1.536558 0.698970 1.176091
1.663701 1.698970 1.301030
1.613842 1.397940 1.301030
1.596597 1.301030 1.301030
1.537819 1.000000 1.301030
1.469822 0.698970 1.301030
1.562293 1.698970 1.477121
1.513218 1.397940 1.477121
1.495544 1.301030 1.477121
1.436163 1.000000 1.477121
1.369216 0.698970 1.477121
1.380211 1.698970 1.778151
1.330414 1.397940 1.778151
1.311754 1.301030 1.778151
1.250420 1.000000 1.778151
1.184691 0.698970 1.778151
1.187521 1.698970 2.079181
1.136721 1.397940 2.079181
1.120574 1.301030 2.079181
1.060698 1.000000 2.079181
0.991226 0.698970 2.079181
Superior 95.0%
Intensidades máximas.- Estación Quillabamba (mm/h)
I= K=
m=n=
Período de Retorno (T) en años
10 20 25
2 117.85 134.92 140.92
4 80.11 91.71 95.80
6 63.92 73.18 76.43
8 54.46 62.35 65.12
10 48.10 55.06 57.51
12 43.45 49.75 51.96
14 39.88 45.65 47.69
16 37.02 42.38 44.27
18 34.67 39.69 41.46
20 32.70 37.43 39.10
22 31.01 35.50 37.07
24 29.54 33.82 35.32
K T m
tn
Duración (t) (minutos)
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Estacion Quillabamba
Tr = 10 Años
Tr = 20 Años
Tr = 25 Años
Tr = 50 Años
Duración (min)
Inte
nsid
ad (m
m/h
)
Intensidades máximas.- Estación Quillabamba (mm/h)
I= K=
m=n=T=
I (mm/h) P (mm)
2 161.32 5.38 5.38
4 109.67 7.31 1.93
6 87.50 8.75 1.44
8 74.55 9.94 1.19
10 65.84 10.97 1.03
12 59.48 11.90 0.92
14 54.59 12.74 0.84
16 50.68 13.51 0.78
18 47.46 14.24 0.72
20 44.76 14.92 0.68
22 42.44 15.56 0.64
24 40.44 16.18 0.61
26 38.67 16.76 0.58
28 37.11 17.32 0.56
30 35.71 17.86 0.54
K T m
tn
(t) (min)
∆ P
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 300.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00 Hietograma Estacion Quillabamba
T=50 años
T=25 años
T=20 años
T=10 años
Tiempo (min)
Prec
ipita
cion
(mm
)
Cuadro Nº12:Caudales máximos Método Racional K= 110.630m= 0.195n= 0.557T= 20 añosT= 25 añosT= 50 años
Nº Nombre C
horas minutos T=20 T=25 T=50 T=20 T=25 T=50
1 Rio Sicrimayo 0.30 1.95 1.70 0.3676 0.473 28.36 30.81 32.19 36.85 5.01 5.23 5.99
2 Rio Picchu Alto 0.35 1.97 1.73 0.3468 0.486 29.17 30.34 31.69 36.27 5.81 6.07 6.95
3 Rio Ucurimayoc 0.40 4.50 3.34 0.4311 0.827 49.64 22.56 23.57 26.98 11.28 11.78 13.49
K C1 30 10 5 5 50 0.502 30 10 5 5 50 0.503 30 10 5 5 50 0.50
Area(km2)
Longitud del cauce L
(Km)
Pendiente del cauce S
(m/m)
Tiempo de Concentración Tc
Intensidadmm/hora
Caudal Máximo(m3/s)
K1 K2 K3 K4
K=K1+K2+K3+K4 C100 0.8075 0.6550 0.5030 0.3525 0.20
Fuente: Manual para el diseño de caminos no pavimentados de bajo volumen de tránsito, MTC.
Coeficiente de EscorrentíaCondiciónK1=40 K1=30 K1=20 K1=10
Muy accidentado pendiente superior al 30%
Accidentado pendiente entre 10% y 30%
Ondulado pendiente entre 5% y 10%
Llano pendiente inferior al 5%
K2=20 K2=15 K2=10 K2=5
Muy impermeable Roca sana
Bastante impermeable Arcilla
Permeable Muy permeable
K3=20 K3=15 K3=10 K3=5
Sin vegetaciónPoca menos del 10% de la superficie
Bastante hasta el 50% de la superficie
Mucha hasta el 90% de la superficie
K4=20 K4=15 K4=10 K4=5
Ninguna Poca Bastante MuchaFuente: Manual para el diseño de caminos no pavimentados de bajo volumen de tránsito, MTC.
ValoresValores para la determinación del Coeficiente de Escorrentía
1. Relieve del terreno
2. Permeabilidad del suelo
3. Vegetación
4. Capacidad de retención
6.3
CIAQ
n
m
t
KTI
K=K1+K2+K3+K4 C100 0.8075 0.6550 0.5030 0.3525 0.20
Fuente: Manual para el diseño de caminos no pavimentados de bajo volumen de tránsito, MTC.
Coeficiente de EscorrentíaCondiciónK1=40 K1=30 K1=20 K1=10
Muy accidentado pendiente superior al 30%
Accidentado pendiente entre 10% y 30%
Ondulado pendiente entre 5% y 10%
Llano pendiente inferior al 5%
K2=20 K2=15 K2=10 K2=5
Muy impermeable Roca sana
Bastante impermeable Arcilla
Permeable Muy permeable
K3=20 K3=15 K3=10 K3=5
Sin vegetaciónPoca menos del 10% de la superficie
Bastante hasta el 50% de la superficie
Mucha hasta el 90% de la superficie
K4=20 K4=15 K4=10 K4=5
Ninguna Poca Bastante MuchaFuente: Manual para el diseño de caminos no pavimentados de bajo volumen de tránsito, MTC.
ValoresValores para la determinación del Coeficiente de Escorrentía
1. Relieve del terreno
2. Permeabilidad del suelo
3. Vegetación
4. Capacidad de retención
K=K1+K2+K3+K4 C100 0.8075 0.6550 0.5030 0.3525 0.20
Fuente: Manual para el diseño de caminos no pavimentados de bajo volumen de tránsito, MTC.
Coeficiente de Escorrentía
K=K1+K2+K3+K4 C100 0.8075 0.6550 0.5030 0.3525 0.20
Fuente: Manual para el diseño de caminos no pavimentados de bajo volumen de tránsito, MTC.
Coeficiente de Escorrentía