automotive trends in steel and future mobility€¦ · 01-01-2019 · (hss) and optimized design...
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Automotive trends in steel and future mobility
Cees Ten Broek, Director, WorldAutoSteel
AK Steel Nippon Steel & Sumitomo
Ansteel Nucor
ArcelorMittal POSCO
Baowu Severstal
China Steel SSAB
Erdemir Tata Steel
HBIS Ternium
Hyundai Steel ThyssenKrupp
JFE USIMINAS
JSW Steel U. S. Steel
Kobe voestalpine
Automotive Group of the World Steel Association
WorldAutoSteel
MEMBER COMPANIES:
2
Agenda
• WorldAutoSteel Program and Legacy
• The Role of Advanced High-Strength Steels
• Steel’s Continued Potential in Automotive - Today
• Why Life Cycle Assessment?
• Future Mobility and Our Next Program
3
WorldAutoSteel Program and Legacy
Steel Industry Legacy of Commitment
ULSAB
▪ Mass savings of 25% over
the benchmark at no cost
penalty
▪ 80% High-Strength Steel
(HSS) and optimized
design
▪ First demonstration in the
world of extensive HSS use
▪ First demonstration of high
use of steel technologies
(tailored blanks,
hydroforming)
▪ Up to 46% lighter than
the average benchmark
▪ First demonstration of
ultra-thin (0.6 mm) Dual
Phase Class A surface
materials
▪ High Star Crash Ratings
potential in U.S. and Europe
▪ Affordable manufacturing
costs
▪ Fuel Efficient: 3.2 to 4.5
L/100 km or 52 to 73 MPG
▪ Environmentally
responsible: low GHG
emissions
▪ Demonstration of HSS and
Advanced HSS (AHSS)
TEC
HN
ICA
L
▪ Mass savings up to 34%
over current steel design
at no additional cost
▪ Matched the mass of
aluminum system, while
achieving 30% cost
benefit
▪ No compromise to
performance
▪ Manufacturable in
high volume at no
cost penalty
First compilation of AHSS Application Guidelines begins
1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
ULSAC ULSAS ULSAB-AVC
5
▪ UL Family of Research Technical Transfers
▪ Communication of results of Life Cycle
Assessment (LCA) Study
▪ Benchmarking analysis studies begin
▪ Advanced High-Strength Steel Application
Guidelines version1 & 2 published
TEC
HN
ICA
L
▪ Benchmarking analysis studies
continue
▪ AHSS Application Guidelines
Version 3 & 4 published
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Operating as AutoCo
BEGINS
▪ Launch of FutureSteelVehicle program at U.N. FCCC, Bali
▪ Public communications efforts begin
LCA ▪ Began advocating for LCA in vehicle regulations
Policymaker attitude: Dismissal
“It’s too new and too complicated.”
6
Steel Industry Legacy of Commitment
TEC
HN
ICA
L2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016
LCA
Policymaker attitude: Conditional Acceptance
“Agreed. But how?”
Global Launch of Results Technical Transfers and Ongoing Communications
▪ State-of-the-future development process
▪ 177 kg body structure mass - 39% mass
reduction
▪ 97% use of HSS and AHSS
▪ Nearly 50% GigaPascal steels
▪ Enables 5-star safety ratings
▪ Nearly 70%Total Lifetime Emissions
Reduction
▪ Mass savings at no cost penalty
▪ Near-term production application
▪ AHSS Application
Guidelines 5.0 published
and concerted training
efforts begin
▪ Response and feedback
leads to AHSS Guidelines
6.0 publication.
▪ Research for potential next
steel applications
demonstration project
▪ Competitive and functional
benchmarking projects
continue
Awareness to Deployment
▪ Continued building LCA awareness and understanding
▪ Recognized modeling and technical resource
▪Multi-year TUB study focused on delivering viable options for LCA-based vehicle regulations.
STUDY BEGINS
7
2017 2018-20
▪ Future trends and impacts for steel in light of new mobility and regulatory environment
▪ New flagship program
Steel Industry Legacy of Commitment
More than two decades of automotive investment
8
ULSAB
UltraLight Steel Auto Body
ULSAS
UltraLight
Steel
Auto
Suspensions
ULSAB-AVC
Advanced Vehicle
ConceptsULSAC
UltraLight Steel
Auto Closures
Nature’s Way to Mobility
8
1. State-of-the-future development process
2. 177 kg body structure mass - 39% mass reduction
3. 97% use of HSS and AHSS
4. Nearly 50% GigaPascal steels
5. Enables 5-star safety ratings
6. Nearly 70%Total Lifetime Emissions Reduction
7. Mass savings at no cost penalty
8. Near-term production-applicable solutions
Nature’s Way to Mobility
9
FutureSteelVehicle 97% HSS and AHSS, 50% +1000 MPa
10
DP 210/440
An Expanding Steel Materials Portfolio
IF 260/410
BH 280/400
IF 300/420
DP 300/500
FB 330/450
DP 350/600
TRIP 350/600
TRIP 400/700
HSLA 420/500
FB 450/600
TRIP 450/800
TWIP 480/900
HSLA 490/600
DP 500/800
CP 500/800
TWIP 500/980
HSLA 550/650
CP 600/900
TWIP 600/900
DP 600/980
TRIP 600/980
Q&P 650/980
CP 680/780
TPN 680/780
HSLA 700/780
DP 700/1000
CP 750/900
TPN 750/900
DP 750/980
TRIP 750/980
TWIP 750/1000
CP 800/1000
DP 800/1180
CP 850/1180
MS 950/1200
TWIP 950/1200
CP 1000/1200
MS 1050/1470
CP 1050/1470
HF 1050/1500
DP 1150/1270
MS 1150/1400
HF 1200/1900
MS 1250/1500
2002 ULSAB AVC Grades
2011 FutureSteelVehicle
2017 AHSS Guidelines
Continued Steel Reinvention
11
Advanced High-Strength Steels Application Guidelines
12
Version 6.0 includes:
▪ Compilation of the latest global best
practices
▪ Stress-strain curves publicly available
▪ Detailed discussions of metallurgy and
manufacturing processes
▪ Addresses tough forming and joining
issues
The Role of Advanced High-Strength Steels
2016-17 Chevy Cruz Redesign at GM/Opel for China
14
Source: Eckhardt/Kupper 2014 Aachen Body Engineering Presentation
2018 Honda Accord, ACE™ Body Structure“Highest UHSS Content” to Date in any Honda Vehicle
15
2018 Honda Accord▪ 29% UHSS
▪ 54.2% High-Strength Steel (above 400 MPa)
▪ 110-176 lbs/50-80 kg lighter than its
predecessor
▪ Improved crash energy absorption
▪ body torsional and bending rigidity are
improved 32 and 24 percent, respectively
▪ Named 2018 Car of the Year
2018 Kia Forte
16
2019 Chevy Silverado
17
Automaker Adoption of AHSS for EV
18
Chevy Bolt/Opel Ampera-eSource: Chevrolet Media
19
Tesla 3Source: Tesla Motors
Automaker Adoption of AHSS for EV
Steel’s Continued Potential in Automotive - Today
Auto Mass Benchmarking
▪ When comparing steel components of
the same size and function, there is a
considerable range of mass.
▪ When compared to an efficient steel
design, the mass savings gap with
aluminum significantly reduces and in
some cases reverses.
▪ Mass saving achieved at the component
level due to material substitution is often
not realized at the system level.
▪ Investigate robustness
▪ Track changes over time
21
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Bo
dy
Stru
ctu
re M
ass
kg
Area m2
Body Structure Mass
A=7.5 m2Variability in structure mass of
similarly sized componentsA=7.5 m2
Possible opportunity for
mass reduction using steel
grades available now
Key observations
22
Example: Body Structure
23
Key observations
40%-3.2kg
19%-1.1kg
Key observations
24
Auto Mass Benchmarking Conclusions
25
There is yet untapped mass savings potential with steel – today!
Safety LightweightingEnvironmental
EfficiencyAffordability
Report available free at www.worldautosteel.org
Variety in underbody load paths implies optimal configuration not yet identified
BEV structural load
paths across
production vehicles
Battery Electric Benchmarking Study:
Snapshot from 2018 Study
26
27
New Requirements
demand
New Solutions.
Battery Electric Benchmarking Study:
Snapshot from 2018 Study
Why Life Cycle Assessment?
Driving The Industry: Stringent Regulation
29
A hole in the tailpipe approach
30
Current Vehicle Emissions
Focus
LCA-Based Vehicle Emissions
Focus
Fuel/Energy Use(Tailpipe Emissions)
Fuel CycleVehicle ManufactureMaterial, Powertrain & Components Manufacture
Raw Material Extraction
End of Life Recycling and
Disposal
A more costly approach yields a less favorable result for the environment.
- 6%
+ 7%
Life Cycle Emissions
Toyota Venza
Driving (Use) Phase
Emissions
Lotus Engineering Study -
High Development Body Structure
UC-Davis
LCA evaluation
Need for LCA - Actual vs Expected Emissions
31
The problem: Unintended Consequences
32
Material Production GHG comparison for a functionally
equivalent component - typical example
Mild Steel
Aluminium
Magnesium
Carbon FRP
AHSS
Mid-Range
CO2e
Estimated Part
Weight (kg)
2.3 100
2.3 75
16.5 67
46.0 50
22.0 45
2300
990
1106
173
230
(kg CO2e)
33
Participation In Key Industry And Environmental Activities
• Leading Universities - Funding automotive and LCA research
Partnerships Around the Globe
Future Mobility and our Next Program
Future Trends in Mobility 2030+
Cooperation Partners WorldAutoSteel
• FKA - Germany
• Automobility - Shanghai
35
From conventional mobility to Automated Mobility as a Service„Mobility as a service“: Important step towards automated mobility
Conventional mobility
• Internal Combustion Engines
• Privatley owned vehicles
• Basically only source of revenuefor OEM (incl. aftersalesservices)
• All regions and environment(urban, extra-urban)
• Broad portfolio of conventionalvehicle segments
Mobility as a Service (MaaS)
Carsharing
▪ Fully electric
▪ Owned by mobility providers& OEM
▪ User drives
▪ Mainly urban use cases
▪ Mainly small and compact vehicle segments
Ridehailing, incl. Ride-Pooling
▪ Conventional propulsion & BEV
▪ Owned by mobility providers & OEM
▪ Chaffeur / driver
▪ Urban & extra-urban use cases
▪ All vehicle segments
Automated Mobility
as a Service (AMaaS)
▪ Congruence of CarSharing and
RideHailing
▪ Fully electric
▪ Fully automated: “robot”
chauffeur
▪ Route optimization
▪ Urban & extra-urban use cases
▪ All vehicle segments, depending
on “level of privacy”
2030 + (future trends & impacts)2010 2020 +
3636
▪ The objective for future
vehicles and mobility in
general is EFFIENCY,
SAFETY and
AUTOMATIZATION.
▪ Central questions:
▪ What are the particular
goals for the industry
branch?
▪ What possible
approaches exist and
what measures need to
be taken?
▪ What are the pending
challenges?
▪ What is the impact of
these developments on
the automotive value
chain, e.g. on material
suppliers?
ProspectsMegatrends affecting the automotive industry
Global megatrends effect efficiency, safety and automatizationstrategies in the automotive industry
Megatrends
Topics of
researchEfficiency AutomizationSafety
Driven by
Customer / marketLegislation Digitization
Environmental
protection Urbanization Cultural change
3737
Program “Electric Mobility“ one million EV in 2020 and six million EV in 2030
National Commitments cause a disengagement from the combustion engine in the automotive industry
Program “eMobility quota” 10% minimum quota in 2019, 12% in 2020. 40 to 50 percent of new registrations in 2030 are EV.
Program “Driving the future today” starting in 2040 – no new licensing of vehicles powered by combustion engine
CARB California “binding quotas for electric vehicles (ZEV, TZEV)” – adopted in 15 other US states
“Until 2025 a significant part of the vehicle fleet has to be electrified to reach the legislative target”
Exclusively electric vehicles are licensed starting in the mid of 2020.
Consequent strategy and a stated political will to facilitate electric mobility. Emissions reduced in the height of 41 to 45 %
between 2012 and 2025
Phase out fossil-fueled freight transport by 2030. No new registrations of fossil-fueled personal vehicles.
Starting in 2025 no new licensing of vehicles powered by combustion engine; In 2050 traffic shall be all electric powered.
38
“We intensively work on increasing the rate of electric vehicles up to 20 percent of production in 2025.
We oblige ourselves to this task and are convinced that we succeed”
Existing Megatrends have an impact on the efficiency and future mobility roadmap of premium OEM
“Of top priority we look forward to 25 percent electric vehicles in 2025”
“The upcoming „BMW I-Next“ in 2021 is supposed to be a major step up to autonomous driving”
“We are continuing to pursue our vision of accident-free driving, and this ambitious aim can only be achieved
through many smaller steps, culminating in the autonomously driving car”
“In 10 years, more than a half of new vehicle production is electric in the United States”
“There will not be a steering wheel in 20 years, almost all cars produced will be autonomous”
“In 2019 every new model is equipped with an electric motor. One million electric vehicles in 2025”
“Self-driving cars have an enormous potential, our first unsupervised autonomous vehicles will be in the market by
2021”
39
Not only premium OEM are developing the field of (A)MaaS –This demonstrates the volume relevance of developmentsExamples from Volkswagen
Premium
Volume
e.g. DriveNow
e.g. Car2Go
▪ Launched in 2016, located in Berlin,
Hamburg and Helsinki
▪ Currently establishing a ridepooling service
▪ Goal: One of the world’s leading mobility
provider by 2025.
▪ Ride-pooling service via smart phone app,
with a medium-term perspective as a
automated vehicle mobility service.
▪ Principle of „virtual bus stops“ (max. distance
250 m) guarantees efficient integration into
traffic and efficient pooling.
▪ 100 % subsidiary of Volkswagen
▪ Launched in 2018, located in Berlin
▪ Develop and offer „Zero-Emission“-
Carsharing-Services
▪ Goal: to make life in cities calmer, greener
and more attractive.
▪ Service WeShare will start in 2019 in Berlin,
from 2020 in further European and North
American cities.
▪ Flexibility: WeShare covers different mobility
needs within one ServiceSource: VW, UMI, MOIA
e.g. Moia
e.g. Monet
e.g. Renault
Mobility
e.g. Free2Move
e.g. e-share
4040
Premium
Volume
e.g. DriveNow
e.g. Car2Go
e.g. Moia
▪ "Toyota is transforming from an auto making company into a mobility-
related services company“ (Akio Toyoda, Toyota President, October 2018)
▪ Toyota Motor and SoftBank Group are set to launch a joint venture, Monet
Technologies, to offer mobility services, including ride-hailing, by the end
of March 2019
▪ Monet will merge Toyota's connected car technology and data collected
from SoftBank's smartphones and sensor devices.
▪ By the mid-2020s, they plan to develop an autonomous vehicle, the "e-
Palette“, which will be used for taxis, driverless delivery vehicles and
services like ride-hailing.
▪ They will also launch a service, Autono-MaaS, which will use the e-Palette
▪ The two companies aim to expand globally in the future.
Strategy of Toyota
Source: asia.nikkei.com
e.g. Monet
e.g. Renault
Mobility
e.g. Free2Move
e.g. e-share
Not only premium OEM are developing the field of (A)MaaS –This demonstrates the volume relevance of developmentsExamples from Volkswagen
41
The transition is driven by enormous investments worldwideExample: Latest Investments in (A)MaaS by Softbank
99 taxis
$100 M
Uber
$9.3 B Cruise
$2.3 B Mythic
$40 M
AI Brain
$114 M
NAuto
$159 M
mapbox
$164 M
Auto1
$460 M
Didi
$5 B
Ola
$2 B
Grab
$500 M
Innoviz
$73 M
Softbank Vision Fund > 100 Billion USD, concentrating on Mobility as a Service
42
Future Trends in Mobility 2030+
• WorldAutoSteel future programs to address global mobility trends and developments.
• Asia important player and will drive change globally.
• Strong focus on environmental performance and assessment of materials.
• WorldAutoSteel to continue to cooperate with global partners to provide state-of-the-art expertise to position steel as the material of choice.
43
Conclusions
44
“Mediocrity is not worth the trip.” Sergio Marchionne, late CEO, FCA