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1
Automotive Innovation Trend Towards Intelligent Mobility
– In collaboration with Intesa Sanpaolo Innovation Center –
March 2016
2
In 2106, Frost & Sullivan predicts that the global automotive industry will, amongst other
things, continue to be shaped by investment in mobility
Frost & Sullivan
The global automotive market, represented by light vehicle sales, is expected to grow at a
stable 2-3% to reach 91 million units sales. It will be driven by growth in the United States and
Western Europe, which will offset the slowdown in China and the decline in Japan.
Global auto sales growth is expected to peak as the average car age reaches 11.7 years in
the United States and 9.4 years in Europe.
The SUV segment is expected to accelerate, growing in double digits.
The Volkswagen Group will flatline, if not shrink, as it works to re-establish its brand post-
scandal, with the possible offloading of a division.
The trifecta (triple crossover) design philosophy will take center stage with 15 new models
launched in 2016, bringing the total to about 40 by the end of the year.
Mobility will continue be in the limelight as volume Original Equipment Manufacturers
(OEMs) increasingly invest in mobility and, in particular, intelligent mobility services, moving
toward a Car-as-a-Service (CaaS) business model.
1
2
3
4
5
6
Global Automotive Market: Frost & Sullivan’s Top 6 Predictions for 2016
3
Light vehicle sales are expected to grow at a stable 2-3% in 2016 to reach 91 million
units, driven by demand in the US and Western Europe
2016
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
Africa Asia-Pacific
EasternEurope
The MiddleEast
NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
WesternEurope
China 26.0
Japan 4.9
India 3.3
Others 4.0
South Korea 1.7
Russia 2.8
Others 1.0 Poland 0.4
Turkey 0.8
Mexico 1.4
Canada 1.8
US 18.6
Brazil 3.9 Argentina
0.6
Others 3.2
France 2.3
Germany 3.5
Italy 1.8
Spain 1.3 UK 2.8
Indonesia 0.7
Others 1.1
~ 91 Million
~ 89 Million 2016
2-3% YoY growth (2015–16)
Russia 1.1 Iran 1.2
Egypt 0.3
Canada 1.8
Brazil 3.2
2015
Un
its (
Millio
n)
Africa 1%
Asia-Pacific 45%
Eastern Europe 4%
Middle East 1%
North America 22%
Others 5%
Latin America 5%
Western Europe 16%
Africa 1%
Asia-Pacific 46%
Eastern Europe 4%
Middle East 2%
North America 22%
Others 5%
Latin America 5%
Western Europe 16%
Automotive Market: Light Vehicle Sales, Global, 2015 and 2016
LMC Automotive, Frost & Sullivan
4
Implementing intelligent mobility solutions in today’s cities and tomorrow’s mega cities
is a way of providing safer, greener and leaner transportation
Intelligent Mobility Market: Business Case for Intelligent Mobility, Global, 2015–2035
Leaner Mobility
Road congestion is currently rising steadily at an average of 6%
annually.
• Achieve 60–90 km/h on highway and 30–40 km/h on arterials
Greener Mobility
Global carbon dioxide emissions increased by 2.5% to 44
billion tons in 2014.
• Achieve fleet average of 65 g/km CO2 emission
Safer Mobility
Currently, on average, there are 52 road deaths
per million inhabitants in the EU.
• Reduce 80% of road fatalities when compared to 2014
Apart from achieving the obvious benefit of safety, intelligent mobility goes the extra mile of providing
green benefits and integrating with smart mobility options which help achieve a new, state-of-the-art
intelligent transportation ecosystem.
Frost & Sullivan
5
Convergence is propelling the market and notably the uptake of connected vehicles,
autonomous driving, car sharing and electric vehicles
Intelligent
Mobility
Technology Connectivity
Mobility
Interaction of data between infrastructure
and vehicles pertaining to traffic
information and road safety is expected to
improve accuracy of automated systems.
V2X
Autonomous driving would address the
key issue behind the majority of current
road accidents, which is human error.
Autonomous
Driving
Vehicles are enabled with intelligent
transport systems that work together with
infrastructure, environment, and in-vehicle
communication systems.
Connected
Vehicles
Best-in-class connectivity bandwidth and
cyber data security with ubiquitous
computing power will enhance the
analytical capability of data.
Big Data
Analytics
Shared
Mobility
Rapid transits are likely to address the
issue of traffic hot spots and enhance the
utility and service aspect of mobility.
Advanced models of ride sharing and car
sharing are expected to considerably
reduce zero-occupancy travel time.
Public
Transport
Intelligent Mobility Market: Convergence of Intelligence, Connectivity, and Mobility, Global, 2015–2035
Frost & Sullivan V2X = vehicle to everything
6
Connected vehicles
7
Door to Door Navigation
Open Sourcing of Apps (SDK)
Ethernet
Apple CarPlay
Android Auto
MirrorLink
Connectivity Standards (USB, BT, Wi-
Fi, NFC)
Wireless Device Charging
Wireless Hotspot
Embedded LTE
App Stores
Navigation Map Over the Air Updates
(NDS)
V2V/V2X
Mobility Services (parking, Route
planning, Nav)
Connected Car Outlook: Infotainment, Telematics and HMI Features, Global, 2015
The connected vehicle segment can be broken out into infotainment, telematics and
human machine interface-enabled services and features
Automatic Collision Notification (ACN),
eCall, Roadside Assistance
HWW and Conditional Monitoring
Smart and Personalized Access with
Biometrics
Telematics-based Insurance: Mileage-
based, pay-how-you-drive (PHYD)-
based Insurance
Prognostics Services
Recall Management
Software Over-the-Air Updates
Firmware Over-the-Air Updates
Personalized Concierge Services
Impact Alert (for emergency and
insurance)
VRM and CRM
Geo-Fence Alerts and Marketing
Remote Function App with Parking
Advanced Voice Recognition
Natural Speech Recognition
Capacitive Touch Screen
Touch Gestures
Multifunctional Controller
Touchpad with Handwriting
Recognition
Hand/Air Gestures
12” Plus Central Display
Instrument Cluster Display –
Reconfigurable
Head-up Display – Combiner
Voice personal Assistants
Haptic Touch Feedback
Portrait Central Screen
Frost & Sullivan
Infotainment Telematics Human Machine Interface
Definition/Segmentation HMI = human machine interface
8
Uptake is driven by drivers’ desire for greater content and comfort in the car, and the
availability of technologies linking vehicles and their environments
Driv
ers
R
estra
ints
Driv
ers
R
estra
ints
Increasing information
content Improved safety (e.g. NCAP Rating)
Product differentiation tool (i.e. low vs. high segments)
Legislation (i.e. e-Call)
Increase of IT savvy users
Driver Distraction for
some applications High cost restricts
penetration
Lack of standardization in
vehicle production lines
Driver understanding of new technologies
Desire for comfort features
Market Challenges – Global, 2015
Compatibility with different
systems
Space and weight
constraints
Security
Maintaining
compatibility
Desire for
“instant
updates”
Ensure
standardization Educate Tier
1/OEMs to new
systems
Frost & Sullivan Market Trends
9
Frost & Sullivan Incentives & Regulations
• Cybersecurity has emerged as a key concern given the increasing penetration of
electronics/software across areas such as infotainment
• The market witnessed the first cyber recall at FCA with over 1.5 million cars impacted.
The SPY Car Study Act proposed by US Congress is now under debate.
• The concept of distributed end-to-end security is still non-existent in the market, and
OEMs are engaging with vendors to test specific application
Key Trends Comments
Commercial or
Concept Phase?
In reality, no vehicle has been hacked yet, but all it takes is
one attack to expose the overall weaknesses in car systems.
Level of Impact
The impact of cybersecurity is very high because it adds to the
overall security of the car, improves the brand image of the
OEMs, and allows a balance of innovation, especially on the
vehicle automation side.
Regional Impact
OEMs will launch more initiatives in North America because of
a faster push towards automation and high-speed connectivity
through to 2020.
Key OEMs Backing
the Trend
GM, Ford, Chrysler, BMW, Audi, and Mercedes-Benz are
expected to push this trend.
Key Vehicle
Segments
The impact will be across the brands and not by specific
segments.
Use Cases Protecting physical hacking attacks and V2X (vehicle-to-
everything) communications are key areas.
In theory, there are over 50
vulnerable points in the vehicle.
Frost & Sullivan has identified
15 distinct, hackable physical
points, with the infotainment
system heavily exposed.
In-car Security
Focus on
preventing cyber
attacks
However, 2015 saw the first vehicle recall based on security concerns, sharpening both
OEM and lawmakers’ focus on cybersecurity, especially in the U.S.
10
18,8 23,8
29,4
36,1
43,8
51,8
60,0
69,4
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nn
ec
ted
Ve
hic
les
(M
illio
n)
NA Europe China Brazil South Korea Japan India Total
Frost & Sullivan expects the global market for connected cars to reach 69.4 million
vehicles by 2022, up from just 18.8 million vehicles in 2015
China is expected to lead the connected car market with high production volumes while in NA all cars sold
will have connectivity post 2020. Europe is expected to catch up soon but will be stalled a little with
Eastern European penetration. Brazil is expected to experience a slow turnaround.
Connected Car Outlook: Connected Cars Forecast, Global, 2015–2022
Frost & Sullivan Market Analysis & Forecast Base year 2015
11
OEM
Voice
Recognition
Touch
Screen
Haptic
Feedback
Handwriting
Recognition Head-up Display
Air Gesture
Recognition
Reconfigurable
Cluster Display
Audi Advanced
Voice
Expected
2018 Trackpad Yes
Windshield
HUD Expected 2020 Yes
BMW Advanced
Voice
Capacitive
BMW 7 Trackpad Yes
Windshield
HUD BMW 7 Series Yes
Ford Natural
Voice
7”
Capacitive 2016 No
Expected
2016 Expected 2018 No
JLR Natural
Voice Capacitive Yes No Laser HUD
2018
Electric Field
Sensing
Yes
Mercedes-
Benz
Natural
Voice
Expected
2018 Track pad Yes
Windshield
HUD Expected 2020 Yes
Opel Natural
Voice
6.5”
Resistive No No Combiner HUD No No
Renault Natural
Voice 6” Resistive No No Combiner HUD No No
Toyota Natural
Voice Capacitive No No
3D HUD
Expected 2018 No No
VW Natural
Voice
Capacitive &
Resistive
Expected
2018
Expected
2018 Combiner HUD No No
Volvo Advanced
Voice Capacitive Yes Yes Windshield HUD Expected 2018 Yes
Connected Car Outlook: HMI Comparative Analysis, Europe, 2016
In the dynamic HMI segment, handwriting recognition and trackpad technologies are
gaining traction across OEMs although VW remains an innovator
Frost & Sullivan Key Players & Forecast HUD = head up display
12
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2021
2016
2015
More generally, growth is stemming from both voice recognition and touch screen
solutions, with suppliers focusing on improving user experience
Market Penetration
Touch Screen
Head Up
Display
Voice
Recognition
Handwriting
Recognition
Multifunctional
Controller
• Technologies like handwriting
recognition and head-up display
(HUD) are restricted to premium
models.
• Combiner HUD will have a higher
penetration rate when compared to
other HUD solutions.
• Multifunctional controllers and
handwriting recognition will find
interest in the Chinese market with
demand for ease of use.
• Increasing preference towards
capacitive technologies such as
touch screen become a commodity.
• Central display sizes will increase (9”
average) and set a trend preference
for portrait mode for better clarity
and restricted interior space.
Connected Car Outlook: HMI Technologies Penetration, Global, 2015, 2016, and 2021
Digital Instrument
Cluster
Air Gesture
Frost & Sullivan Enabling Infrastructure Base year 2015
13
HMI enable technologies continue to evolve rapidly with wearables and biometrics set to
change the ways in which drivers’ access their vehicles moving forwards
Text
Increasing trend towards
portrait central displays
with increasing sizes, e.g.,
Tesla, Volvo, and Aston
Martin
Smartphone-based
virtual assistants like
Microsoft Cortana,
Siri, and S- Voice
Wearables and biometrics
• Tier I suppliers like
Continental, Bosch, and
Visteon boasting of
combiner HUDs
• AR HUDs still in concept
phase
• Expected mass market
penetration for HUDs by
2018
• Microsoft with Volvo
working on voice-based
wearables remote access
• Mercedes-Benz remote
services with Pebble and
Google glasses and BMW
with Apple Watch
• Biometrics-based access,
convenience, and
personalization
• Networked displays with
information sharing and
control using single ECU,
e.g., Visteon
• High-end graphics for
clusters and central displays
-NVIDIA
• OEMs like Ford with
Amazon – Alexa, BMW
working with Nuance, and
Mercedes-Benz Gloria
• Hybrid and cloud-based
models, predictive options,
and self-learning modules
pioneered by Nuance
Key areas: HMI for
autonomous specific
modes and OTA for
HMI, e.g., Movimento
with Delphi
Frost & Sullivan Technology
14
Autonomous driving
15
Assisted Semi-automated Cooperative Highly-automated
2010 2025
Automated
Parallel Parking
AEBS
Traffic Jam Assist
(Semi-automated steering)
Emergency Steer
Assist
Smart Navigation (vehicle
deciding on routes)
Automated
Highway Systems
LCA (partial
steering autonomy)
ACC Intersection Assist
(powered by V2X)
Autonomous
Valet Parking and
Retrieval
Platooning
Co-operative
Adaptive Cruise
Control
Driverless
car
occupant-
specific
driving
dynamics,
alerts to the
environment
(horn, dim
dip)
Automated vehicle taking
control of navigation,
transmission, steering,
braking, and parking
Driver maintains override switch
controls to all operations.
Autonomous Driving Market: Functional Road Map, Global, 2010–2025
The autonomous driving market is moving from solutions based on advanced driver
assistance systems to cooperative and highly automated vehicles
MIRA Ltd., Frost & Sullivan Definition/Segmentation
16
• Sensor fusion is expected to take ADAS to the next level by making the system more reliable; it is the necessary precursor before autonomous driving is introduced.
• The autonomous driving domain will be dominated by suppliers that have exceptional capabilities in chassis-ADAS-safety integration.
Awareness of the technology is
increasing
Continuous efforts are on to
harmonize the requirements
from country to country
Major vehicle OEMs have
started pilot testing of
autonomous vehicles on public
roads
Lack of uniform
regulations
between countries
Regulation and Standardization
Technology Innovation and
Absorption
Connectivity and Infrastructure
Nationwide Awareness and
Guidance
Value Chain Evolution
Ma
rke
t T
ren
ds
Missing Links
Key OEMs Audi, BMW, Mercedes Benz, Renault, Volvo
Key Vendors Bosch, Continental, Here, ADASworks
Autonomous Driving Market: Autonomous Market Overview, Europe, 2016–2030
Restraints Drivers
In Europe, increased public awareness together with greater OEM pilots and efforts to
harmonise legislation are driving the market forward
Frost & Sullivan Market Trends
17
Autonomous Driving Market: Legislation, EU, 2015
Country What Is Permitted
Special
Requirements/
Conditions
United
Kingdom
• Automated vehicles can legally be tested on UK roads. The current domestic regulations is to be
reviewed and amended to accommodate driverless technology by 2017.
• The intention is to interact at an international level with an intention to amend international
regulations by 2018.
Presence of test
driver required.
Germany
• Currently, testing of highly and fully automated vehicle technologies does not comply with the
German law, although semi-automated technology testing is permitted.
• Presently, for testing automated vehicle technologies, each Federal State can grant exemptions
from German Road Traffic Licensing Regulations.
Presence of test
driver required and is
fully responsible for
safe testing
Sweden • Testing of highly automated vehicles on public roads in restricted areas in and around
Gothenburg is permitted. It is a part of Volvo’s “Drive-Me’ project. -
France
• Currently, the government is scrutinizing regulatory issues that may constrain testing of
automated vehicles.
• The roadmap for testing automated vehicle technologies was published in 2014 and indicates
pilot zones and authorizes experimental on-road testing of partial and highly automated vehicles.
More focus on
improvement of public
transport systems
The
Netherlands
• A proposal to extend exemption laws to permit large scale testing of passenger cars and
commercial vehicles was approved in January 2015 Limited admittance
Testing of highly automated vehicles has until now been taking place under ad-hoc
permits as no country has a comprehensive set of regulations in place
Frost & Sullivan Incentives & Regulations
18
0
2.000.000
4.000.000
6.000.000
8.000.000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Un
its
Autonomous Driving Market: Unit Shipment Forecast, Europe, 2015–2030
Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
• By 2021, more than 1 million units in the Western European market are likely to have level 2
automation with strong market push due to insurance-related consumer incentives and wider
availability.
• With OEMs taking the wait and watch approach with level 3 automation, in 2016 and 2017 zero to
minimal adoption of high automation, beyond petri dish projects by Volvo, Audi, BMW, and
Mercedes-Benz, is likely.
Frost & Sullivan expects that 10%to 15% of new vehicles in Europe will be highly
automated in 2030, with more than 30% offering lower levels
Frost & Sullivan Market Analysis & Forecast Base year 2015
19
OEM
Currently Available Future Offering
Supplier
Tie-up Feature SAE Level Feature SAE Level Year Models
Audi Traffic Jam
Assist Level 2
Traffic Assist,
Piloted driving,
and Piloted
Parking
Level 3 2017
onwards
A8, A7 and
Q8
Valeo,
Mobileye,
Continental,
Bosch
BMW
Traffic Jam
Assist,
Assistive
Parking
Level2
Active Assist and
Remote Valet
Parking
Level 3 2018
onwards
7-Series and
5-Series
Continental &
ZF
Lenksysteme
Cadillac AEB, ACC Level 1 SuperCruise Level 3 2020
onwards
CTS and
Escalade
Mostly in-
house, TRW,
Laird Tech
Ford Adaptive
Cruise
Control, AEB
Level 1 Active City Stop Level 2 2017
onwards
Fusion and
Escape
Continental,
Velodyne,
Bosch,
In-house
Mercedes-
Benz
Traffic Jam
Assist Level 2
Distronic Plus
with Steer Assist Level 3
2019
onwards
S-Class and
E-Class
Quanergy (For
R&D)
Tesla Autopilot Level 2 Autopilot 2.0 Level 3 2019 Model S, X 3 Mobileye,
Bosch, NVIDIA
Volvo Pilot Assist Level 2 City Safety Level 3 2022
onwards XC 90, S90
Continental,
Autoliv
Indeed, over the next few years there is a danger of some commoditization as OEMs
such as Ford introduce level 2 solutions to their models
Frost & Sullivan Key Players & Forecast SAE = SAE International’s levels of driving automation (from 0, no automation, to 5, fully automated)
20
* Needs improvement ** Barely satisfactory *** Good **** Very good ***** Ideal solution
• Reliability: In a co-existent
driving environment, V2X
provides better collision
avoidance rate due to its
capability to address a
wider audience.
• Accuracy: While ADAS
has the capability to see
and perceive the
immediate surroundings,
V2X enables farsighted
vision.
• Fitment: While ADAS
applications are OE fit,
V2X applications can be
readily available because
aftermarket fitment comes
at highly affordable prices.
V2X
Intelligent Mobility Market: Comparative Analysis of Sensor Suite, Global, 2015–2035
RADAR LIDAR Vision
Infra
Red V2X
Short distance
(0 to 2m) *** **** ** ***** *****
Nominal distance
(2 to 30m) ***** ***** ** ***** *****
Long distance
(30 to 100m ) *** ***** ** *** *****
Narrow range <10deg *** ***** ***** ***** *****
Wide range >30 ** ***** ***** **** *****
Angular resolution *** ***** ***** **** -
Object speed measurement ***** * * * *****
Bad weather operation **** ** ** **** *****
Blockage ***** **** * *** ***
Night operation ***** ***** * ***** *****
Cost **** * *** ** *****
No single technology can currently cater to all of the requirements of highly automated
vehicles so a synthesis of sensors such as RADAR and Infra Red is needed
MIRA Ltd., Frost & Sullivan Key Players & Forecast LIDAR = light detection and ranging
21
2010–2015
2015–2020
2020–2025
OEMs promoting developmental activities for
V2X technologies through trials
Services provided: Internet global services,
community services (VM services)
High penetration level in
urban cities with strong
compulsion for OEMs and
aftermarket device
manufacturers to the
functionality
Services like hazard
warnings, floating car data
warning, and high speed
sensing to be incorporated
with eCall
Likely mandate of V2V/V2I services in
key European countries with major
emphasis in Netherlands, Sweden,
France, Germany, and Denmark
Co-operational vision, V2V, V2I
communications and deployment plan with
consolidated strategy planned by consortiums,
vehicle manufacturers, suppliers, road operators,
telecom authorities, and other stakeholders
Deployment of V2V/V2I communication
platform for commercial vehicles and fleet
operations
Traffic light assistance and real-time traffic
information to be coordinated
Restructuring activities of current
on-board units and roadside units
at major areas of cities, followed by
massive up-gradation in Europe
Services extended to buses and
public transport services
Intelligent Mobility Market: V2V and V2I Road Map, Global, 2010–2025
V2X is currently the most reliable solution but it is hoped that sensor fusion and the
emergence of V2V and V2I will lead to truly autonomous driving
Frost & Sullivan Technology V2V = vehicle to vehicle, V2I = vehicle to infrastructure
22
Car sharing
23
Frost & Sullivan Definition/Segmentation
Most cars are idle for 92% of their lifetime. P2P carsharing is a business model that monetizes this
idle asset. It is positioned to fill in the gap between rental durations of car rental and traditional
carsharing services, providing a different use case targeting weekend rentals in most cases.
Car Rental
• Average rental duration 3 to 11 days
• Round-trip/station-based services (e.g., Avis, Enterprise)
• Use cases: business travel, replacement vehicle, leisure trips
Peer-to-Peer
• Average rental duration 2 to 4 days
• Insurance is key in the revenue sharing model
• Key participants include Getaround, RelayRides, Drivy, Tamyca
• Use cases: weekend rentals
Traditional
• Average rental duration 6 to 8 hours
• Round-trip/station-based services (e.g., Zipcar)
• One-way, fixed point-to-point journeys (e.g., Autolib)
• One-way, free floating services (e.g., car2go, DriveNow)
• Use cases: business/airport, leisure
Carsharing – an extension of car rental – is a form of shared and sustainable personal
transport segmented into traditional and Peer-to-Peer (P2P)
24
Frost & Sullivan Market Trends
The reduced costs of daily commuting and overall vehicle ownership, together with
increased smartphone penetration are driving uptake
Trust Issues: Owners are concerned
about the risk of damage to their
vehicles.
Dri
ve
rs
Res
train
ts
Increasing Costs: Higher insurance costs are being passed on to
renters.
Legislation: Ambiguity regarding liability insurance is a
challenge. State insurance laws have
not caught up with the industry.
Financial Case: Owners can earn
between $5 to $12 per hour. Additionally, there are other cost savings such as free parking.
Smartphone Penetration and Use
of Mobility Apps: Smartphone
penetration in the EU5 is 44% and in the US it
is 41.8%.
Technology: Technology will
become cheaper and more accessible,
helping P2P operators expand their market
reach.
Collaborative Consumption: A shared economy
appeals to the younger generation.
Scalability: Expansion is negatively affected
by the lack of customers, inadequate
revenue inflow, and lack of funding.
Increasing Access over Ownership:
Each shared vehicle removes approximately 10
cars from the road.
P2P Carsharing Market: Drivers and Restraints, Europe and North America, 2015–2025
25
Europe is expected to lay out a new regulatory framework facilitating P2P carsharing
with insurance remaining an important consideration globally
Frost & Sullivan Incentives & Regulations
• Each vehicle rented through a P2P CSO requires additional insurance. Hence,
approximately 15% of the total rent is allocated for additional insurance.
• Accepted vehicles include: standard cars, utility vehicles weighing less than 3.5 tons, and
vehicles with power less than 200 KW which should be registered in the same country.
• The vehicle to be rented should not be more than 20 years old and the replacement
value not more than $80,000 (some insurance companies limit the value to $55,000).
• Germany: Insurance coverage must be up to $1.5 million, with personal injury cases at a
maximum of $12 million per person.
• Australian legal regulations require each vehicle owner to ensure that their vehicle is
covered by compulsory third-party insurance that also provides cover for rental use. Apart
from that, vehicle gets coverage of up to $30 million for third-party property damage.
• China issued a nationwide ban on drivers of private cars offering taxi services through ride
sourcing apps. However, the ban excluded the P2P carsharing market because it could
not be defined as a taxi service. Also, shared services in China have been experiencing
significant growth since the carpooling ban was lifted. As
ia-P
ac
ific
N
ort
h A
me
ric
a
Eu
rop
e
P2P Carsharing Market: Legal and Regulatory Framework, Global, 2014
• Each state has a different legal regulation in the United States. However, the following 5
states—California, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, and Texas—support P2P carsharing by
defining it as a service, which also makes it necessary for operators to provide insurance
at least 3 times the state minimum for personal auto insurance. Insurance laws enabling
P2P carsharing as a service are expected to cover 5 more states by the end of 2016.
• Canada requires additional insurance coverage with a minimum of $1 million.
• High insurance costs act as a barrier for entry into the North American market.
CSO = carsharing operator
26
Growth in members of P2P schemes will reach 16% (CAGR 2014-25) but the member-to-
vehicle ratio will remain low due to a “local” business model
Frost & Sullivan Market Analysis & Forecast
Typ
e
Year
Countries
Adopted
# of CSOs
(Approx.) Key CSOs
Members
(Approx.)
Vehicles
(Approx.)
M:V Ratio
(Approx.) Remarks
Tra
ditio
nal C
ars
ha
rin
g
2014
1. France
2. Germany
3. UK
45
• Zipcar
• Hertz On
Demand
• Enterprise
• Communauto
Car2Go
• DriveNow
1.7 million 20,555 52 More members
expected to
join traditional
CSOs as
corporate
carsharing
customers 2020 > 50 4.35 million 87,000 50
P2
P C
ars
ha
rin
g 2014 12
• Drivy
• Buzzcar
• Tamyca
• Autonetzer
• GoMore
868,000 64,800 13 Much lower
member to
vehicle ratio
due to localized
schemes and
varying
utilization 2025 <20 4.3 million 228,162 19
Carsharing Market: Snapshot of Traditional vs. P2P Carsharing, Europe, 2014–2025
Base year 2014
27
Frost & Sullivan Key Players & Forecast
The most developed market in Europe by some distance in terms of both members and
vehicles is France, with Drivy currently the local P2P leader P
2P C
ars
ha
rin
g O
pe
rato
rs
OuiCar 2007
(Previously
Zilok)
MyWheels
2010
Tamyca
2010 SocialCar
2011 Degage
easyCar Club
2013
GoMore
2011
FlexiDrive
2011
Drivy 2010
(Previously
Voiturelib)
Deelauto
Zutphen
Autonetzer
2010 GoMore
2015 Autopia VZW
Rentecarlo
2014
MinbilDinbil (Acquired by
SnappCar)
CityzenCar
2011 (Acquired
by Buzzcar)
WeGo
2011
(M) 140,000
(V) 17,000
(M) 8,700
(V) 1061 (M) 600
(V) 30
(M) 10,000
(V) 800
(M) 28,000
(V) 3,500
Buzzcar
(Acquired by
Drivy)
SnappCar
2011
UneVoitureAL
ouer
(Acquired by
OuiCar)
(M) 96,100
(V) 12,020
e-loue 2009
Deways 2010
(M) 718,000
(V) 47,000
• WhipCar (2009 to 2013) was the only operator to exit the market.
• Respiro and MovoMovo went back to traditional carsharing in
2014.
• Smaller market participants have been acquired or partnered with
other major regional market participants such as Drivy and
OuiCar.
• The major participants in Europe are Drivy (FR), Tamyca (DE),
and Autonetzer (DE) with Drivy acquiring Buzzcar towards the end
of the 1st quarter in 2015.
Europe
P2P Carsharing Market: Key Market Participants, Europe, 2014
Dates correspond to the year of establishment
28
Online registration platforms and centralized payment solutions are facilitators of P2P
carsharing programmes for both owners and drivers
Frost & Sullivan Enabling Infrastructure
Ow
ne
r
Register/Add Car:
• Register on operator Web site for free by adding the car, and setting the price and availability
Answer Request:
• Accepts/rejects requests
• Copy of renter’s driving licence is sent to operator once accepted
Rent Vehicle:
• Meet driver and exchange keys
• Sign rental agreement with insurance and roadside assistance
Receive Vehicle:
• Gets the car back after rental time period
• Earns 70% of rental payment
• Payment gets credited in the bank account in 48-hours or 1 week
Dri
ve
r/R
en
ter
Register:
• Register online for free
• Should be at least 21 years old, holding 2- year old driving licence
• Submit driving licence photograph
Reserve Vehicle:
• Send requests based on location and price
• Choose a vehicle
• Owners respond within 24 hours
Collect Vehicle:
• Pre-authorize payment before collecting vehicle
• Collect the vehicle after signing rental agreement
Return Vehicle:
• Return the car after the rental period to the owner
• Rental amount will be charged at the end of the rental
29
Keyless entry devices are currently more common in North America than Europe but will
increase vehicle availability and member earnings
Frost & Sullivan Technology
Data Capture Mechanisms
• Navigation
• Driving time
• Trip data
• Over-speed events
GPS
Data
• Accelerometer
• Recovery and
immobilization
• Geo-fencing to
designate boundary for
vehicle
Vehicle
Data
• Logbook: Monthly breakdown of driving time,
categorization of driving as business/personal expense
• Maintenance Alerts: Periodic indications regarding oil
change, tire pressure, and fuel level
• Vehicle-to-vehicle Communication: Emergency
assistance, 24/7 news
• Hands-free calling
Key Market Participants Offering Keyless Entry
• Getaround’s Connect: Offers 30-day free trial and
guarantee $1,000 earnings in 3 months
• JustShareIt’s RideLink: Provided 250 free devices as
introductory offer
• Koolicar’s KoolBox: Mandatory fitment on all vehicles
registered with Koolicar
• Device cost and installation charges: $300 to $400
• Monthly package subscription charges: $15 to $20 per
month
Terms and Conditions:
• Vehicle availability at least 16 to 40 hours per week
• Model year is 2005 or newer with less than 90,000 to
125,000 miles
• Vehicle should not have any other security devices
installed
P2P Carsharing Market: Keyless Entry Enabled Vehicles, Europe and North America, 2014
Service Packages
30
Electric vehicles
31
Neighborhood Electric
Vehicles (NEVs)
Battery Electric Vehicles
(BEVs)
Extended Range Electric
Vehicles (eREVs)
Plug-in Hybrid Electric
Vehicles (PHEVs)
NEVs are a US DOT
classification for vehicles
weighing less than 3,000
lbs (GVW) and having a
top speed of 25 mph.
Generally, NEVs are
restricted to operate on
streets with a speed limit
of 35 mph or less.
BEVs are a European
classification for small
and light vehicles
intended for use in urban
areas, although they are
also capable of operating
in a mixed city-highway
environment.
E-REVs have an ICE or
another secondary power
source connected in a
series configuration to a
generator that supplies
electricity to the batteries.
Drive range and speed
are comparable to ICE
vehicles.
PHEVs have an ICE with
a motor along with a
battery connected in
parallel to the ICE.
Generally, they are
regarded as full hybrids
with a larger
motor/battery and a
recharge plug.
GEM, E2, E4, E6, ZENN,
ZAP
Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S,
smart fortwo ED, BMW i3
Chevrolet Volt, BMW i3 REX,
Opel Ampera
Toyota Prius PHV, Honda
Accord PHEV
The electric vehicles market can broadly be segmented into “pure” electric and hybrid
vehicles, the latter of which use range extender and plug-in technologies
EVs use electric motors instead of an internal combustion engine (ICE) to propel a vehicle. The electric
power is derived from a battery of one of several chemistries including lead acid, nickel metal hydride (NiMH),
and lithium-ion (Li-ion).
Total EV Market: Classification of PHEVs and EVs, Global, 2014
Image Source: PSA, Nissan, GM, Toyota Frost & Sullivan Definition/Segmentation
32
Frost & Sullivan Market Trends
Preference towards eREV and PHEVs: The trend indicates a preference towards longer range
vehicles that allow the confidence to drive an EV up to and past the pure electric range. The BMW
i3 sales split between BEV and eREV demonstrates the trend. 1
Inclusion of EV Service Offerings: All the major European OEMs such a Audi, BMW, Daimler,
PSA, and Volkswagen are offering at least 2-3 EV-related services to bridge the gap between the
conventional vehicles and the driving habits. The services range from free-of-cost charging to
accessing an alternate vehicle for longer commutes.
3
Incentives for EVs: All EV manufacturers are looking to capitalize on the available incentives
and subsidies, mainly in China. Due to an annual decrease of 5% incentive in China, OEMs such
as Tesla are looking at alternatives to qualify for incentives. 4
Alternative Technologies: OEMs such as Honda, Hyundai, and Toyota are promoting Fuel Cell
Vehicles (FCVs) as an alternative to EVs and are likely to continue to launch FCVs through 2016
APAC, Europe, and North America. 5
2 Focus on China: Major OEMs such as BMW, Tesla, and Daimler have high expectations for the
Chinese market and have designed growth strategies to establish themselves firmly in the market,
including expectations to benefit from the available incentives and subsidies.
In Europe and North America consumers’ preference is for longer range vehicles, whilst
China offers an absolute opportunity for electric vehicle OEMs
33
Country
Direct
Purchase
Incentive
Free
Charging
/ Free
Parking VAT
Exemption
Registration/
Road Tax
Exemption
Annual
Circulation
Tax
Exemption Company Car
Fleet Incentive Change
Germany - In 2015 - - 100% (for a
period of 10
years)
Discount on income
tax payable
(calculated on
income tax slab
and battery power)
More incentives
expected post 2015
(access to bus lanes)
France €7,000/
€3,300 for
PHEVs
Free
private
parking -
Up to 75%
(registration tax) -
100% (on annual
tax on company
cars)
Bonus for utility vehicle
to phase out by end of
2014
United
Kingdom
25% cost of
car up to
£5,000 Yes - 100% (road tax) -
100% (for first 5
years)
Purchase incentives to
reduce from 2015 and
likely to phase out by
2016
Italy - - - -
100% (75%
after 5 years
of
registration)
- -
Sweden SEK 40,000 - - - 100% - Annual circulation tax
likely reduce or phase
out post 2016
Ireland - - -
Up to € 5,000
(registration tax),
€2500 for PHEVs
- Likely to reduce by
2017 -
The nascent market is highly dependent on incentives and subsidies with the extent of
government support differing across European countries
Total EV Market: EV Incentives and Subsidies, Selected European Countries, 2014
Frost & Sullivan Incentives & Regulations
34
70.000
75.000
80.000
85.000
90.000
95.000
100.000
105.000
110.000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mig
lia
ia
ICE HEV PHEV BEV FCEV
FCEV (0.1%)
HEV (5.6%)
ICE (92.1%)
PHEV (1.6%)
BEV (1.3%)
Frost & Sullivan expects that sales of electric vehicles will reach 10 million globally by
2020 with full and mild hybrids available as standard
Hybrid
Sales
>1.5M
More clarity on
mild hybrid
adoption
China New
Energy Vehicle
policy showing
results
Shift from full
hybrids to
PHEVs in the
West
Series
production of
FCEV
Witness EVs growth
increase and HEV
growth shrink
Total EV Market: Sales Forecasts for ICE, HEV, PHEV, BEV, and FCEV, Global, 2013–2020
Frost & Sullivan Market Analysis & Forecast
Base year 2014
35
23.253
572
16.949
580
9.001
29.293
21.563
199
16.062
16.080 3.799
19.698
1.000
19.474
5.005
0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000
Re
na
ult
Nis
san
Gen
era
lM
oto
rsM
itsu
bis
hi
Toyota
Tesla
APAC
China
North America
Europe
70.233
2.144
4.358
1.277
28.880
20.991
32.265
20.370
1.911
0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000
Re
na
ult
Nis
san
Gen
era
lM
oto
rsM
itsu
bis
hi
Toyota
Tesla
NEV
PHEV
eREV
BEV
Total EV Market: Top OEM Breakdown by Region and EV Type, Global, 2014
Nissan leads the way with over 68,000 electric vehicle sales world wide, of which 23,000
were in Europe, followed by Mitsubishi, Tesla, General Motors and Toyota
Frost & Sullivan Key Players & Forecast Base year 2014
36
The Netherlands and France have the most developed charging infrastructure but rapid
charging DC stations are most common in the UK
Country CP DC Key Operators
Austria 1,500 18
Austrian Mobile Power,
Spar
Belgium 1,530 20
Siemens, Park &
Charge, Rittal
Denmark 1,190 56 EON, Clever
France 6,050 110
EDF, Park & Charge,
Vinci Autoroutes
Germany 4,340 53 RWE, Bosch
Netherlands 8,580 80 Epyon, Alfen, ABB
Norway 5,720 96 Transnova, City of Oslo
Switzerland 1,020 30 Park & Charge, Alpiq
United Kingdom 3,780 110
Podpoint, Elektromotive,
Chargemaster
3,780
5,720
6.050
8,580
1.020
4.340
1,190
Total EV Market: Charging Station Installation Base, Europe, 2014
Frost & Sullivan Enabling Infrastructure
CP = charging point, DC = direct current, Base year 2104
37
Lithium-ion batteries are currently the most common with lithium sulfur and zinc air
batteries likely to be adopted in the next 8 years
2015 2020 2025 2030
Li-ion
Lithium
Sulfur
Zinc Air
Lithium
Air
Launch
Energy Density
Cost
Lifecycle
Launch
Energy Density
Cost
Lifecycle
Launch
Energy Density
Cost
Lifecycle
Launch
Energy Density
Cost
Lifecycle
Second Generation EVs Third Generation EVs
110-150 Wh/kg > 250 Wh/kg
$300-$400/kWh $150-$200/ kWh
700-1500 cycles > 1,500 cycles
Prototype and Testing Introduction
500-600 Wh/kg (theoretical) 400 Wh/kg (practical)
$400-$500/ kWh $100-$150/ kWh
500-1,000 > 1,000
Prototype and Testing Introduction
450-500 Wh/kg 380 Wh/kg (practical)
$400-$500/kWh $100-$150/kWh
150-800 > 1,000
Prototype Introduction
800-900 Wh/kg
(theoretical) 600 Wh/kg
$500-$600 kWh $300-$400/
kWh
100-300 >1,000
Total EV Market: Future Battery Chemistries in EVs—Technology Roadmap, Global, 2015–2030
Frost & Sullivan Technology
38
Italy
39
0,0 1,8 3,5
Ukraine
CzechRepublic
Poland
Turkey
Russia
Spain
Italy
France
UK
Germany
2016 2015
5,9%
3,0%
11,5%
2,1%
-14,1%
9,3%
9,6%
2,9%
6,4%
0,6%
-15,0% 0,0% 15,0%
In Western Europe, growth in light vehicles is expected to be highest in Italy in 2016 with
shipments of 1.84m units, up 9.6% from 1.68m in 2015
LMC Automotive, Frost & Sullivan
United Kingdom
UK vehicle sales have continued their upward growth
trajectory driven by the strong British pound,
manufacturer incentives, and attractive financing linked
to low interest rates. Compact cars and SUVs drove
growth, accounting for 40% and 20% of total sales,
respectively. Sales are anticipated to level off in 2016.
Italy
Italy’s growth is expected to continue at about 10% in
2016, driven by replacement cycle.
Spain
Spanish sales grew at 22% in 2015 as economic
recovery took hold and consumers took advantage of
state subsidies for scrapping old vehicles.
Russia
The financial crisis resulting from Western sanctions has
led to consumer uncertainty and a delay in larger
purchases. Overall sales fell by 39%; the entry car
market was much more affected than the premium
market. Sales are expected to continue to fall in 2016.
Automotive Market: Light Vehicle Sales, 2015 and 2016
YoY Growth, % Sales, Units M
40
Electric vehicles in Italy are exempt from the annual circulation tax for a period of 5 years
from the date on which they are registered.
After 5 years, they will benefit from a 75% reduction in taxes compared to gasoline
vehicle taxes in many regions.
The government is investing in building eCharging infrastructure and increasing R&D into
alternative fuels and hybrids.
Installation of over 1,500 charging stations is expected in Italy, with government support
extended to both private and public initiatives.
The Italian government is looking to boost the sale of electric vehicles in particular by
providing support on both the demand and supply side
Chargemap, Frost & Sullivan
Country Normal
3 to 7 kW
Accelerated
8 to 22 kW
Rapid
>23 kW
Italy 406 212 17
EV Market: AC Charging Points, 2015
Demand
Supply
41
Base year 2104 The Fiat 500e is sold primarily in the US
Local OEMs are responding with Fiat launching the 500e and Ferrari’s hybrid supercar
confirming interest in the booming luxury EV segment
Frost & Sullivan
• The launch of LaFerrari has confirmed the interest
of automakers in producing electric supercars.
• There are 499 units that will be produced; however,
all the units have been pre-sold.
• This is the fastest Ferrari to date, with total 949 hp
that includes a 214 kW electric motor. LaFerrari PHEV
345 1.555 2.445
3.872 5.979
12.567
17.338
22.064
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EV Markets, Sales of the Fiat 500e, 2013-2020, Global, Units
LaFerrari
42
Appendices
43
Principal abbreviations
ACC Adaptive Cruise Control Kg Kilogram
ADAS Advanced Driver Assistance System Km Kilometre
AEBS Advanced Emergency Braking System KW Kilowatt
APAC Asia-Pacific KWh Kilowatt hour
BEV Battery Electric Vehicle LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging
CaaS Car-as-a-Service Li-ion Lithium-ion
CP Charging point NA North America
CSO Carsharing Operator NCAP New Car Assessment Programme
DC Direct current NEV Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle
ECU Electronic Control Unit NiMH Nickel Metal Hydride
EREV Extended Range Electric Vehicles OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer
EU European Union OTA Over-the-air
EV Electric Vehicle P2P Peer-to-peer
FCEV Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
FCV Fuel Cell Vehicle R&D Research & Development
G Gram SUV Sports Utility Vehicle
H Hour US United States
HEV Hybrid Electric Vehicle V2I Vehicle-to-infrastructure
HMI Human Machine Interface V2V Vehicle-to-vehicle
Hp Horsepower V2X Vehicle-to-everything
HUD Head Up Display Wh Watt-hour
44
Frost & Sullivan www.frost.com
March 2016
Study carried out exclusively for
Intesa Sanpaolo Innovation Center
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