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TRANSCRIPT
RICHARD ROBINSON
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 2
• Director – Global Automotive Practice• Previous: Alpine as HMI lead on Navigation and Infotainment Design• [email protected]
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
SA SERVICES OVERVIEW
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 3Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
INFOTAINMENT & TELEMATICS DESIGN TRENDS
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 4
2nd Generation 1998 2006
Display
CD Changer
Head unit
Navigation
Phone ECU Sat Radio
Amplifier
Distributed Architecture e.g. MOST
$$$$
Display
Connectivity ECU
Head unit
Telematics ECU
OR
Native and Phone based apps – Hybrid solution
Cloud
4th Generation 2010
3G 4G
$$
Connectivity ECU
Telematics ECUOR
3rd Generation 2005 2010
Head unit& Display
Navigation
Amplifier
Headunit Integration
$$$
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
EMBEDDED MODEMS REGIONAL SHIPMENT VIEW
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 5
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Uni
t Shi
pmen
ts (0
00's
)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
North America Europe South Korea Japan China
India Russia Brazil Rest Of the World Non Connected
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 6
OEM TELEMATICSCELLULAR MODEM CHOICE – GLOBAL SHIPMENTS
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Uni
ts (0
00's
)
2.5G
3G
4G/LTE
• Telematics ECU Modem Shipments 2014 vs. 2021 (15.3 Mil. units 66 Mil. units)– 2.5G Wireless Network: 9.4 Mil units in 2014 to Zero (by 2020)– 3G Wireless Network: 4.1Mil units in 2014 to 40.5 Mil units in 2021– 4G Wireless Network: 1.6Mil units in 2014 to 25.7 Mil units in 2021
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
AFTER THE CAR IS CONNECTED….WHO IS THE MAIN ‘WINNER’??
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 7
OEM? Driver?
Winner! Winner
OR
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 8
Device Maker? Device Owner?
Winner! Winner
OR
AFTER THE CAR IS CONNECTED….WHO IS THE MAIN ‘WINNER’??
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
TELEMATICS: THE BMW EFFECT?DON’T PUT UP BARRIERS TO ADOPTION!
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 9
OEM Connectivity Solution Network Speed TSP Carrier Free trial
BMW - BMW Assist Embedded GSM 2.5G WirelessCar, Agero AT&T 10 Years
Chrysler Uconnect Embedded CDMA 2.5G WirelessCar,
Airbiquity Sprint 6 Months
Ford - EV Focus Embedded GSM 2.5G Airbiquity, Acuity AT&T 4 years
GM - OnStar Embedded CDMA
2.5G Proprietary, Convergys, Airbiquity Verizon 1 Year
GM - OnStar For My Vehicle Embedded GSM 4G/LTE Proprietary,
Convergys AT&T 5 Years
Hyundai - Blue Link Embedded CDMA 2.5G Agero, Aeris, TCS Sprint 1Years
Infiniti Connection Embedded GSM 2.5G Agero, Airbiquity AT&T 1 year trial
Mercedes Benz - mBrace2 Embedded CDMA 3G Hughes Telematics Verizon 6 Months
Toyota/Lexus - Enform with Safety Connect
Embedded CDMA 2.5G Agero Verizon 1 Year
?
?
??
?
?
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
SO…WHAT HAPPENS IF NOTHING CHANGES?
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 10Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
HARDWARE IN MARKET (CUMULATIVE)OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS - GLOBAL
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 11
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Units (0
00's)
Hardware in Market
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 12
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Units (0
00's)
Hardware in Market
Active Subs
ACTIVE SUBSCRIPTIONS (CUMULATIVE)OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS - GLOBAL
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 13
IN-ACTIVE SUBSCRIPTIONS (CUMULATIVE)OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS - GLOBAL
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Units (0
00's)
Hardware in Market
Active Subs
Inactive Subs
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
INACTIVE SUBS = DEAD $$$OEM EMBEDDED TELEMATICS (UNITS/REVENUES)
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 14
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2011 2013 2015 2017
Revenu
es (U
SD M
illion
Units (0
00's)
Revenues Units
Over $4 Billion wasted in 2017 aloneOver $12 Billion wasted 2011 2017
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
CONVERGENCE OF INFO/TELEMATICS & SAFETY
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 15
1. Connectivity: Embedded and brought in2. Infotainment: The big screen, in‐vehicle experience3. Smartphone Connections: Personal content, apps, authentication
We NEED solutions to address:Privacy Security LiabilityRecalls
Personalization
PrivacySecurity
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
CONTEXTUAL AWARENESS
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 16
We have increasing reliance on:• LIDAR, RADAR and LTE• Cameras• Contextual awareness with the objective
of collision avoidance• Integration/convergence of safety and
infotainment systems
…Most of these systems have COMPLEX software…!
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
NEW VEHICLE OWNERSHIP PARADIGM
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 17
• Connected Car = Always fresh = Reduce Risk– Content – Apps – Maps – Feature/function add‐ons, updates – Collision avoidance & airbag algorithms: High Priority– Safety Systems: High Priority
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
LEARNING FROM OUR MISTAKES…DETROIT, WE HAVE A PROBLEM!!
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 18
Mechanical Recalls shift to Software Related Recalls
(in the US)
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
MAP: FOR NAVIGATION USAGE….
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 19Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
MAP: AS BROWSER
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 20
FacebookTwitterLinked‐In
POI’sEvents
Dealer Contact ‐ CRMTraffic
CloudSocial Loc. Serv.
Google EarthStreet View
FuelParkingTraffic
NavigationRed Light CameraAccident hotspotsCurve warningWeatherTraffic
ADAS
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
BEHIND EVERYTHING….$/£/Y/EURO
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 21
• Global:– $60B/$300B in annual unperformed service– $40B/$300B in collision aftercare– $340B/$1T in schedule/unscheduled maintenance performed
Big, Important, Profitable Business!
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service
CONCLUSIONS
October 23, 2014 Strategy Analytics, Inc 22
• Safety, Security, CRM: Are becoming the priority
• Safety and Infotainment are Converging: But safety is the more important purchasing priority for the customer
• Managing, maintaining customer content: e.g. apps etc. in/from the cloud (or phone)
• Browser‐based in‐vehicle systems• Contextual awareness• Software updates
Source: Infotainment & Telematics Service