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October 2014 | ey.com/automotive | 10th edition Capital Confidence Barometer Automotive Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities

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Page 1: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

October 2014 | ey.com/automotive | 10th edition

CapitalConfidenceBarometer

Automotive

Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities

Page 2: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014

of automotive companies expect to pursue acquisitions

in the next 12 months

51%

51% 71%

expe

ct th

e M&A market to improve64%

but not at any cost

of automotive companies

focused on growth

60%

Future of work and digital

transformation

Strong shift towards

middle market indicates

healthier M&A

Improved outlook for corporate earnings over past 12 months

Oct

201

4

Oct

201

3

are driving M&A strategy

of automotive executives expect to finance

transactions with debt

of automotive executives expect their deal pipeline to

increase over the next 12 months

Page 3: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

xCapital Confidence Barometer |

A note from Mark Short, Global Automotive and Transportation Industry Leader, Transaction Advisory ServicesOur most recent Capital Confidence Barometer survey finds the automotive sector as the leading industry sector for driving future transactions. Optimism in the sector has never been higher. Stronger balance sheets, combined with continued debt financing opportunities, are positioning automotive companies to embark on a new wave of transactional initiatives.

This Barometer finds 51% of our respondents to be actively pursuing transactions in the next 12 months, up from 29% in our April 2014 survey. Fueling this activity is increasing confidence in the growth of the automotive sector, stronger deal pipelines and a higher likelihood of closing transactions.

Our survey indicates middle-market transactions, those valued up to US$250 million, will comprise the bulk of deals in the sector. Continued focus on expanding core product opportunities, coupled with increasing the mix of new products and services, are key criteria for driving M&A activity.

I am excited to announce we will expand our sector coverage to include transportation in future survey results. Selected transportation sector survey results are presented near the end of this report.

1Capital Confidence Barometer |

“The automotive sector is now one of the leading industries driving transactions.”

A note from Pip McCrostie, Global Vice Chair, Transaction Advisory ServicesOur 11th Capital Confidence Barometer predicts healthy growth for M&A globally, which should take the market back to levels last seen before the financial crisis.

Acquisitive appetite has increased and deal fundamentals — credit, cash and prices — are strong, as is confidence in economic stability. The biggest indicator of this positive sentiment is deal pipeline, which has increased by a remarkable 30% since April. In addition, two-thirds of executives expect M&A pipelines to expand further over the next year — more than double the number expecting expansion six months ago.

As we predicted in our previous Barometer, 2014 has seen a big increase in multibillion-dollar deals. Now, increasing competition at the top end and a renewed focus on growing core businesses will fuel more middle-market deals.

The majority of acquisitive companies are now focusing on M&A to strengthen their core business, with an eye to boosting market share, managing costs and improving margin growth.

Megadeals are set to continue. However, the next chapter of the M&A story should be middle-market deals fueling an M&A rebound globally.

Page 4: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

2 | Capital Confidence Barometer

Macroeconomicenvironment

Automotive executives are notably positive about the economic environment, with broad-based positivity on corporate earnings, credit and market stability, and job creation.

At the macroeconomic level, despite a continuation of disruptive external influences, including growing political instability in some regions of the world, automotive executives indicate a greater confidence that the global economy is improving. Strong corporate earnings and credit availability are laying the foundation for optimism and future M&A growth.

An optimistic economic outlook and significantly increasing confidence in leading economic indicators are laying the foundation for future M&A growth in the automotive sector.

Page 5: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

3Capital Confidence Barometer |

Apr-14

Oct-14

Oct-13

Create jobs/hire talentKeep current workforce sizeReduce workforce numbers

6%

17%

35%

45%

59%

38%

6% 38% 56%

40%

73%

Corporateearnings

Short-termmarket stability

Creditavailability

Equity valuations/stock market outlook

61% 36%

83%

50% 21%

42% 23%

59%

57% 48%

41%

Oct-13 Apr-14Oct-14

58% 61%

59%

31% 27%

38%

3% 11% 12%

Oct-13 Apr-14Oct-14

Improving

Stable

Declining

The effects of taperingof quantitative easing

Pace of structuralreforms in Eurozone

Inflation

Deflation

21%

6%

3%

24%

Increased globalpolitical instability

Slowing growth in keyemerging markets

13%

33%

19%

2%

0%

19%

23%

37%

Oct-14 Apr-14

Automotive executives maintain confidence in global economy

Geopolitical instability cited as greatest business risk by automotive executives

Automotive executives remain confident that the global economy is improving. An overwhelming 97% of automotive respondents view the global economy as either stable or improving. Greater economic confidence allows companies to plan more freely for growth, and stability is an essential ingredient for a healthy dealmaking environment.

While our automotive respondents identify geopolitical instability as a potential threat to their business, it is unlikely to derail the fundamental drive for growth. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine and ongoing conflict in the Middle East do pose challenges, however.

Structural reforms in the struggling Eurozone automotive market are an increasing concern for our respondents.

Q: What is your perspective on the state of the global economy today?

Q: What do you believe to be the greatest risk to your business over the next 6-12 months?

Q: Please indicate your level of confidence in the following at the global level.

Q: With regard to employment, which of the following does your organization expect to do in the next 12 months?

Strong outlook for automotive corporate earnings

The number of automotive executives who are confident about the outlook for corporate earnings has increased dramatically over the last 12 months. In April 2014, 61% of our respondents expressed confidence in corporate earnings, a big jump from 36% last October; that sentiment further strengthens in October 2014, with 83% expressing confidence, an all-time high in our Barometer.

Other economic indicators are also trending positive: 73% of executives are confident in market stability, 59% express positivity about stock valuations, and 57% are confident in credit availability — all healthy indicators for the deal markets.

Confidence in market indicators driving positive hiring intentions

Improved macroeconomic sentiment is driving positive hiring intentions, as 56% of automotive executives expect to create jobs or acquire talent, up from 38% in April 2014. The number of companies planning to reduce their workforce has dropped to 6% from 17% six months ago. The positive jobs outlook is also consistent with our respondents’ optimistic outlook on corporate health.

Page 6: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

4 | Capital Confidence Barometer

CorporateStrategy

Automotive companies must navigate a particularly complex business environment, shaped by government regulation, increasing shareholder activism and uncertainties about geopolitical stability.

Nonetheless, with the vast majority of automotive companies confident in the economy and other market indicators, they are positioning themselves decisively for future growth, even as they keep one eye on cost and other shareholder concerns.

Increasing confidence in global economic stability has more automotive companies willing to expand their core business by changing their mix of products and services and increasing product introductions. Our survey shows a significant increase in the number of companies adopting both of these strategies.

Page 7: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

5Capital Confidence Barometer |

Apr-14

Oct-13

Oct-14

15% 45% 38%2%

2%

12% 26% 61%1%

8% 30% 60%

Maintain stabilityCost reduction and operational efficiencyGrowth

Survival

Growth is the primary focus for automotive companies

Growth has made a strong comeback among automotive executives. Sixty percent call it their primary focus over the next year — a significant increase after a dip in growth intentions six months ago. Companies have not wavered, however, in their focus on cost reduction and operational efficiency, as executives remain mindful of the lessons learned during the global financial crisis. At this stage, very few companies are preoccupied with survival.

Q: Which statement best describes your organization’s focus over the next 12 months?

Q: What is the primary focus of your company’s organic growth over the next 12 months?

Organic growth focused on core products and existing markets

In line with their growing confidence in global economic stability, automotive companies are taking on more risk as they expand their core businesses by changing the mix of products and services. Our survey shows a sixfold increase from a year ago in the number of automotive companies changing their product mix. Automotive respondents also indicate a strong willingness, 27% in October 2014 compared with 7% a year ago, to invest in research and development and new product introductions.

% focused on growth

43%

55%

61%

38%

60%

Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-1420%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr-14 Oct-14 Oct-13

Lower-risk

New sales channels

More rigorous focus on core products/existing markets

Increase R&D/productintroductions

Exploiting technologyto develop new

markets/products

Changing mix of existingproducts and services

Invest in newgeographies/markets

Higher-risk

3%

27% 24%

7%

6% 18%

40% 12%

20%

3% 14%

21%

10% 28%

6% 9%

15%

37%

Page 8: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

6 | Capital Confidence Barometer

With growing success and greater influence, activist investors continue to rise in prominence as the market enters a new phase of slower but stable growth. Cost management, returning cash and portfolio optimization are key areas of focus. M&A will also likely be part of the story with asset sales and acquisitions part of the ever-broadening activist dialogue.

As a result, companies are stepping up their efforts to manage shareholder activism, enhancing communication with stakeholders, monitoring signs of activist pressure and performing ongoing portfolio reviews.

42% 31% 31% 27% 25% 7% 7% 7% 3%

Cost reduction

Share buyback

Cash dividend payments

Portfolio analysis

Strategic divestment

Spin-off/IPO

Acquisition

Our shareholders have not raised

these issues

We do not have shareholders

| Capital Confidence Barometer6

Shar

ehol

der a

ctiv

ism

17%

Not applicable

6%2% 8% 18% 24% 25%

Q: How are you preparing to manage any shareholder activism?

Making management changes as a

result of activist intervention

Nothing: we are confident in our

current strategy and not actively preparing

for activism among our shareholders

Conducting an “activist audit” — continue with improvement around cost, efficiencies and

performance

Conducting ongoing portfolio review to grow revenue, increase margins

and optimize value

Ensuring we have open and proactive lines of communication with

our shareholders

Monitoring early warning signs for activist pressure

Activist shareholders influence boardroom agenda

Q: Which of the following has been elevated on your boardroom agenda as a result of shareholder activism? Select up to two.

The C-suite agenda — organic and inorganic growth priorities — is increasingly swayed by the growing influence of shareholder activism.

Page 9: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

When asked about the impact of global megatrends on core business strategy, automotive executives are most concerned about the reconfiguration of government, global rebalancing and digital transformation. Governments worldwide are rethinking strategies and policies in response to huge challenges. This may have far-reaching implications for automotive businesses, creating an urgent need to stay agile, keep up with policy changes in other countries and ensure compliance and collaboration with public sector agencies.

While the rethinking of government is automotive executives’ top issue affecting core business strategy, when it comes to acquisition strategy, executives are most concerned about the future of work. Driven by shifting employment patterns and the impact of technology and mobility on workplace practices, the traditional talent contract is being rewritten. Governments and policymakers worldwide have raised these issues as long-term structural concerns, as an increasing number of mobile, part-time and self-employed workers change the nature of work and the workplace. The move to a more flexible workforce will provide more opportunities for collaboration and productivity, as well as acquisitions.

Digital transformation is also a primary concern. Even as companies are focused on their core competencies, technology assets are in demand. Emergent technologies are combining with advanced networks, computing and new ways of communicating to fundamentally change businesses. As companies adapt to these advances, executives will need to decide where to strategically invest in technology. Front-end early adapters will be the most attractive acquisition targets, offering innovative and nimble strategic capabilities to acquirers.

As these global megatrends increasingly alter business models and investment strategies, those most able to appreciate their impact will be best positioned for future success.

Rethinking government

Global rebalancing

Digital transformation

Future of work

Reconfiguring the financial

system

Resourceful planet

Cybersecurity

41%35%30%23%22%6% 32%

Q: Which of the following will impact your acquisition strategy most in the next 12 months? Select up to two.

Glob

al m

egat

rend

sCybersecurity

Global rebalancing

Digital transformation

Resourceful planet

Reconfiguring the financial system

Rethinking government

Future of work

38% 34% 25% 23% 23% 7%35%

Capital Confidence Barometer | 7Capital Confidence Barometer |

External trends reshaping automotive corporate strategies

Q: Which of the following will affect your core business strategy most in the next 12 months? Select up to two.

Automotive executives expect global megatrends related to rethinking government, global rebalancing, digital transformation and the future of work to have a significant impact on their business and acquisition strategies.

Page 10: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

8 | Capital Confidence Barometer

M&Aoutlook

Automotive sector M&A is being motivated byrenewed optimism, brought about by increasingsales in both developed and emerging markets anda sector-wide drive to decrease costs and improveefficiencies. A significant number of deals focus on acquiring emergent technologies, particularly around vehicle connectivity and advanced driver-assistance technologies.

Increasing confidence in global economic stability has more automotive companies willing to expand their core business by changing the mix of products and services and increasing product introductions. Our survey shows a significant increase in the number of companies adopting both of these strategies.

Page 11: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

9Capital Confidence Barometer |

Oct-14 Apr-14

Number ofacquisition

opportunities

Quality ofacquisition

opportunities

Likelihood ofclosing

acquisitions

59% 37%

38%

36% 37%

54%

Oct-12 Apr-12 Oct-13 Apr-13 Oct-14

19%

33%

38%

29%

51%

10%

30%

50%

Oct-13

65% 47%

57%

20%

40%

60%

Strong deal market outlook in automotive

Improving M&A market in the near term

An improving view of deal volumes resonates from the alignment of core fundamentals: positive economic sentiment, strong equity markets, enhanced corporate earnings and the expectation to create jobs. While 2014 has been notable for some high-profile megadeals, the Barometer suggests that middle-market M&A will provide a significant lift to deal activity.

Q: What is your expectation for the M&A market in the next 12 months?

Q: Please indicate your level of confidence in the following at the global level

Appetite to acquire surges in automotive

Automotive companies’ appetite for M&A is at a four-year high, with 51% of executives expecting to pursue acquisitions in the next 12 months. This is a clear signal of intent to look at deals as a route to growth. The improvement in the number of companies expecting to pursue acquisitions resonates with the notable increase in the number and quality of acquisition opportunities, as well as significant improvement in the likelihood of deals closing.

Q: Do you expect your company to actively pursue acquisitions in the next 12 months?

64%

Improve

Stay the same

Decline

60% 70%

35% 26%

36%

5% 4%

Oct-13 Apr-14Oct-14

0%

Page 12: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

10 | Capital Confidence Barometer

Our previous Capital Confidence Barometer anticipated a rise of multibillion-dollar deals in 2014. With the climate still favorable for these “megadeals,” we can expect to see further transformational and market-disrupting transactions in the near term.

However, with the appetite to acquire at its highest in four years for the automotive sector, we now expect a new wave of M&A with much more focus on mid-market-sized deals. This new middle market momentum should lift M&A activity as companies seek to strengthen — and expand — their core business. Our analysis of year-on-year changes in deal volumes shows that previous upturns have been led by megadeals and upper middle-market deals, followed by an upswing in the lower middle market. Large transactions create M&A activity further down the deal-size chain as companies look to reshape recently acquired assets.

The majority of automotive companies are focusing on acquiring businesses in their core sectors, with an eye to boosting market share, managing costs and improving margin growth. As cost efficiencies are paramount, planned M&A activity will consist of bolt-on acquisitions that will complement current business models.M

iddl

e m

arke

t M&A activities driven by middle-market deals

Q: What is the maximum single deal value expected over the next 12 months?

The majority of deals filling pipelines are focused on strengthening the core business, boosting market share, managing costs and improving margin growth.

Apr-14

Oct-13

Oct-14

27% 12%

71% 26%3%

87%

61%

13%

US$0–US$250mUS$251m–US$1bGreater than US$1b

Page 13: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

11Capital Confidence Barometer |

Automotive companies, focused on improving the performance of their existing businesses and pursuing organic growth strategies the last few business cycles, appear more willing to pursue M&A growth opportunities over the next 12 months.

Increase in pipelines a leading indicator of deal activity

Q: How many deals of all sizes do you have in your pipeline today?

Bullish deal intentions as pipelines expand

Renewed discipline in dealmaking is forcing companies to thoroughly examine many more investment opportunities to find the best strategic fit. The number of automotive companies that expect their deal pipelines to increase over the next 12 months has increased significantly, 71% in October 2014 compared to 27% six months ago, a further sign of growing M&A momentum.

This move toward larger pipelines bodes well for a rebound in M&A in the near term — especially in the middle market, where expectations indicate most transaction opportunities exist.

Q: How do you expect your deal pipeline to changes over the next 12 months?

Increase

No change

Decrease

27%

65%

8%

71%

29%

0%

Oct-14 Apr-14

3

2

1

23%

24%

23%

14%

41%

>=5

4

20%

10%

27%

2%

16%

Oct-14 Apr-14

Page 14: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

12 | Capital Confidence Barometer

Stable valuations to enable dealmaking

Q: What do you expect the price/valuation of assets to do over the next 12 months?

Modest valuation gap reflects confidence in asset prices

There is a strong consensus among our survey respondents: nearly half of automotive executives see only a small discrepancy between buyers’ and sellers’ expectations on asset valuations. This, combined with the outlook for stability in the valuation gap and the overall value of assets, will encourage dealmaking in the near term.

The more stable outlook for both the valuation gap and price of assets in the next 12 months reinforces the view on stability in macroeconomic conditions and the M&A market.

As buyers become more confident in newly acquired assets’ long-term value, and sellers no longer hold out for higher prices, volumes will likely accelerate — especially in the middle market, where value differences are most easily bridged.

Q: How do you think that buyers’ expectations currently compare to the sellers’ (valuation gap)?

The gap is small(<10%)

Somewhat higher(10-25%)

Significantly higher(25% more)

Somewhat lower(10-25%)

Significantly lower(25% or more)

49%

2% 9%1%

39%

Increase

Remain atcurrent levels

Decrease

Apr-13 Oct-13 Oct-14

35%

46%

46%

46%

60%

5%

8%

10%

44%

Page 15: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

13Capital Confidence Barometer |

Debt to fund future dealmaking

Q: What is likely to be the main source of your company’s deal financing in the next 12 months?

Balance sheet strength leads to drop in highly leveraged companies

Debt ranks as leading vehicle to achieve growth strategies

Leverage has declined since the global financial crisis, thanks in part to an increase in equity value. According to the S&P Global BMI (Broad Market Index) — a cross-country, cross-sector index — the value of average market capitalization has increased 60% since October 2009, whereas total debt rose by only 19%.

Automotive companies’ financials are in an especially strong position, with a clear majority reporting healthy balance sheets. Seventy percent of automotive respondents report a current debt-to-capital ratio of less than 25%, a major improvement from a year ago, and leaving them well positioned to withstand any near-term increase in interest rates.

More than half of automotive executives expect their companies’ debt-to-capital ratios to increase over the next 12 months, indicating a willingness to take on more debt to fund growth ambitions. The number of companies looking to decrease debt-to-capital ratios has dropped considerably since April 2014. A clear majority of automotive companies expect debt to be their primary source of financing for inorganic growth in the next 12 months.

Q: What is your company’s current debt-to-capital ratio?

Q: How do you expect your company’s debt-to-capital ratio to change over the next 12 months?

Oct-13 Apr-14Oct-14

70% 49%

37%

19% 33% 34%

10%

1% 4%

9%

14%

20%

Less than 25%

25-49.9%

75-100%

50-74.9%

Apr-14

Oct-13

Oct-14

37% 41% 22%

31% 48% 21%

24% 25% 51%

Decrease Remain constant Increase

Debt

Equity

51%

Alternate funding

Cash

27%

11%

11%

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14 | Capital Confidence Barometer

Investment focuses on core business

Q: Are your M&A deals planned in or outside your core sector?

Acquisition goals focused on cost reduction, supply chain improvements

The majority of automotive companies are focusing on acquiring businesses in their core sectors, with an eye to improving margin growth and supply chains, and accessing new technologies and intellectual property.

Companies are planning to strengthen and expand the core. They are assessing a range of transaction drivers — but cost efficiencies are paramount. Consequently, for most automotive companies (62% of respondents), planned M&A activity will consist of bolt-on acquisitions that will complement current business models or be in adjacent sectors.

In the current climate, transformative M&A — high-value acquisitions that significantly change the size of the acquirer — and deals that shift the scope of their business look set to continue. More than a third of automotive respondents are considering such transactions.

However, mid-market deals appear to be the trend to drive volume in the automotive M&A market over the coming 12 months.

Q: What are the main drivers impacting your M&A strategy over the next 12 months? Select up to three.

Q: Which statement best describes your M&A plans?

Q: Your M&A activity will mostly be:

Acquire talent

Leverage regulatory/legislative opportunities

14%

Optimize tax efficiencies

Navigate regulatory issues

9%

2%

2%

Gain market share in existing geographical markets

Acquire assets at a discount - opportunistic M&A

39%

Move into new geographical markets

Move into new product/service areas

38%

33%

Reduce costs, improve margins 44%

Improvements to supply chain

Access new technology/intellectual property

40%

40%

17%

We are looking outside of ourcore sector

We are looking both inside andoutside of our core sector 25%

16%

We are looking to acquirecompetitors/similar companies

in our core sector59%

We will do disruptive deals (innovativeinvestments which shifts scope of

buying business — could be intoanother industry sector)

We will do defensive deals(ensuring assets don’t fall into

competitor hands)27%

16%

We will focus on growing thecore (expanding your core offering

into new markets or products)57%

Transformative (high valueacquisition which significantly

changes the size or acquirer

Bolt-on (complementcurrent business model 62%

38%

Page 17: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

15Capital Confidence Barometer |

Automotive companies are focused on optimizing capital but also developing growth strategies

Preserving: How can we improve the performance of our assets?As companies come out of survival mode and focus on growth, executives are no longer focused on preserving capital but are now turning to other Capital Agenda areas.

Optimizing: What steps can we take to

maximize our portfolio’s performance?

More than half (51%) of automotive executives are planning to optimize capital and preparing to

increase their focus on strategic dealmaking.

A strong Capital Agenda should be at the core of all strategic boardroom decisions. It is the framework for all growth and capital management questions.

Investing: What is the best way for our company to grow — and is it

aligned to our core business?Companies are actively refocusing on investment,

building dealmaking rigor and discipline, and setting the stage for later growth; 16% of automotive companies are

devoting their attention and resources to investing.

Raising: Do we have the right capital structure to meet our strategic priorities?With an active focus on growth and healthy balance sheets, automotive companies are expecting to take on more leverage to fund deals; 33% of executives expect to focus on raising capital.

Page 18: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

16 | Capital Confidence Barometer

Automotive companies continue to focus their cross-border M&A activity around a core group of developed and top-tier emerging countries.

The US, China, India and Brazil remain very attractive dealmaking destinations for our survey respondents. The UK replaces Germany in the top five destinations for outbound investments in this survey.

Page 19: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

17Capital Confidence Barometer |

Top investment destinations for automotive (outside your local market)

• China remains attractive due to the size of its economy and growth of the middle class. Economic growth forecasts have tempered slightly, but China remains the top destination for outbound investments.

• India’s deal market is expected to improve. Investor sentiment is seeing a significant recovery, with stock markets hitting all-time highs. In addition, the new government’s pro-business stance should foster a more benign investment landscape for inbound investment.

• M&A in Brazil is likely to remain firm, supported by a governmental focus on infrastructure and a weakening currency, and underpinned by Brazil’s growing middle class.

• The UK is a new top destination for outbound investments in the automotive sector. With strong domestic growth forecast through 2014–15 and efforts on reducing onerous red tape, the UK is expected to be a focused geography in the near term.

• The US M&A market is attractive to foreign investors, thanks to improving economic fundamentals, strong corporate earnings and the opportunity to provide a natural hedge for foreign companies. In this positive transaction environment — and with an interest rate rise not expected before early 2015 — we expect high levels of deal activity to sustain over the coming months.

BrazilChina India United StatesUnited Kingdom

Page 20: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

18 | Capital Confidence Barometer

Transportation Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014

of transportation companies expect to pursue acquisitions

in the next 12 months

40%

53% 65%

expe

ct th

e M&A market to improve47%

without compromising efficiency

growth

Focus on

Rethinking government Strong shift

towards middle market

indicates healthier M&A

Improved outlook on job creation/hiring

Oct

201

4

Oct

201

3

is driving M&A strategy

of executives from the transportation industry indicate they will do transformative deals

of transportation executives expect their deal pipeline to

increase over the next 12 months

Page 21: Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer - Ernst & … Middle-market deals to drive M&A activities Automotive Capital Confidence Barometer | October 2014 of automotive companies expect

19Capital Confidence Barometer |

A note from Mark Short, Global Automotive and Transportation Industry Leader, Transaction Advisory ServicesWe see similar positive trends in our survey results with transportation sector respondents. Survey results regarding the macroeconomic environment, corporate strategy, M&A outlook, including a focus on middle-market deals, using debt to finance deals and increasing the pipelines, all are similar to the responses received from auto sector executives. As a result, we anticipate increased transactional activities in the transportation sector in the near term.

Preserving: How can we improve the performance of our assets?As companies come out of survival mode and focus on growth, executives are no longer focused on preserving capital but are now turning to other Capital Agenda areas.

Optimizing: What steps can we take to

maximize our portfolio’s performance?

A majority, 53%, of transportation companies are planning to optimize capital and preparing to

increase their focus on strategic dealmaking.

Investing: What is the best way for our company to grow — and is it

aligned to our core business?Companies are actively beginning to focus

on investment, building dealmaking rigor and discipline, and setting the stage for later

growth; 10% of transportation companies are prioritizing their

focus and resources to investing.

Raising: Do we have the right capital structure to meet our strategic priorities?With a growing focus on growth and healthy balance sheets, transportation executives are expecting to take on more leverage to fund deals; 37% of executives expect to focus on raising capital.

Growth agenda of transportation focused on optimizing capital allocation

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20 | Capital Confidence Barometer20 | Capital Confidence Barometer

Abo

ut th

is s

urve

y• In August and September, we

surveyed a panel of more than 1,600 executives in 62 countries; more than half were CEOs, CFOs and other C-level executives.

• Automotive sector companies represented in this survey:

• 34% with revenues greater than US$5b

• 34% with revenues between US$1b—US$4.9b

• 19% with revenues between US$500m—US$999.9m

• 13% with revenues less than US$500m

• 45% publicly listed

• 25% privately owned

• 17% private equity/ portfolio-owned

• 13% family-owned

• Transportation sector companies represented in this survey:

• 34% with revenues greater than US$1b

• 38% with revenues between US$500m—US$1b

• 42% publicly listed

The Global Capital Confidence Barometer gauges corporate confidence in the economic outlook and identifies boardroom trends and practices in the way companies manage their Capital Agendas — EY’s framework for strategically managing capital.

It is a regular survey of senior executives from large companies around the world, conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Our panel comprises select global EY clients and contacts and regular EIU contributors.

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21Capital Confidence Barometer |

Mark ShortGlobal Automotive and Transportation Industry LeaderTransaction Advisory Services+1 313 628 [email protected]

AmericasJim CarterAmericas Automotive Industry LeaderTransaction Advisory Services+1 313 628 [email protected]

Europe, Middle East, India and Africa (EMEIA)Christian UphausTransaction Advisory Services+49 211 9352 [email protected]

Far East and OceaniaTony TsangFar East and Oceania Automotive Industry LeaderTransaction Advisory Services+86 21 2228 [email protected]

JapanPeter WespTransaction Advisory Services+49 61 96996 [email protected]

Cont

act u

s

For a conversation about your capital strategy, please contact us.

Additionally, please feel free to contact EY’s Global Automotive and Transportation Center through the contacts listed below.

Randy MillerGlobal Automotive and Transportation Leader+1 313 628 [email protected]

Regan GrantGlobal Automotive and Transportation Marketing Leader +1 313 628 8974 [email protected]

Acknowledgements

Our special thanks go to the global Capital Confidence Barometer panel for their contribution to the survey.

The global Capital Confidence Barometer panel comprises an EIU panel of senior executives and selected EY clients and contacts who participate in the Capital Confidence Barometer on a biannual basis. The surveys are conducted on an independent basis by the EIU.

21Capital Confidence Barometer |

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About EYEY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction andadvisory services. The insights and quality services wedeliver help build trust and confidence in the capitalmarkets and in economies the world over. We developoutstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promisesto all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a criticalrole in building a better working world for our people, forour clients and for our communities.

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About EY’s Transaction Advisory ServicesHow you manage your capital agenda today will defineyour competitive position tomorrow. We work with clientsto create social and economic value by helping themmake better, more informed decisions about strategicallymanaging capital and transactions in fast-changing markets.Whether you’re preserving, optimizing, raising or investing capital, EY’s Transaction Advisory Services combine a unique set of skills, insight and experience to deliver focused advice. We help you drive competitiveadvantage and increased returns through improveddecisions across all aspects of your capital agenda.

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This material has been prepared for general informationalpurposes only and is not intended to be relied upon asaccounting, tax, or other professional advice. Please referto your advisors for specific advice.

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