automotive autonomous driving: the short-term...

© 2017 IHS Markit© 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Autonomous driving: The short-term impact

AUTOMOTIVE

Aaron Dale, Senior Analyst +441933408038

[email protected]

23 March 2017 | Paris, France

Agenda

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Where are we now?

Enabling technologies

Component pricing

Market dynamics

2017?

Q&A

Presentation Name / Month 2016

2

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The big picture


3

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2017 Spring Automotive Conference | 26 January 2017

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So where are we now?

5

2005 2015 2017 2025 2035

L4

L2

L3

L1

L0

Single function automation

Combined function automation

Limited self-driving automation

Autonomous mode with driver controls

L5No driver controls

No automation

NH

TSA

+ I

HS

L4

/5

2017 Spring Automotive Conference | 23 March 2017

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Enabling technologies


6

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The autonomous ecosystem comes together

7

Autonomous

Connecting

Sensing

Computing

Learning

Localizing

Actuating

LIDARCameraRadar

SoftwareCentral electronic control unit (ECU) Cloud

Machine learningArtificial intelligence

SteeringBraking

Accelerating

MapsLIDAR

Road geometry

CloudDeviceDriver

Current expertise

New frontier


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Developments in autonomy to shape user interface

8



2008‒12

2012‒16

2016‒20

2020‒24

Human-centric inputs

Display applications

Display technologies

Speech recognition

Gesture recognition

Driver monitoring

Rearview e-Mirrors

Side-view e-Mirrors

HVAC, passenger, door, etc.

Curved displays

AMOLED displays

Augmented reality head-up display



0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Facial monitoring world fitment rate

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Regionally, Japan is forecast to see the highest fitment rates of facial monitoring, followed by

North America

Assessing drivers’ mental states, cognitive loads, and attention levels will become increasingly

important

Source: IHS Markit


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Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) growing rapidly

11

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

AutopilotSide & Rear Mirror Camera

Lane Departure WarningCollision Warning & Avoidance

Driver MonitoringSurround View

Adaptive Cruise ControlBlind Spot Detection

Autonomous Park AssistPark Assist

ADAS unit growth: CAGR 2017‒22

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Overall ADAS market 17.3%excluding park assist 25.8%


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High-performance solid-state LIDARs: A key to system cost reduction

12

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

MechanicalScanning

LIDAR

Basic FlashLIDAR

HighResolution

Flash LIDAR

Solid-statescanningLIDAR

Typical cost

Typical cost


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Wider change


13

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Mobility manifesting

14

• Automaker subbrands become the home for new technologies

• BMW i

• Mercedes-Benz EQ

• Volkswagen ID concept vehicles

• Companies establish stand-alone mobility units

• Google Waymo

• General Motors Maven

• BMW ReachNow

• Volkswagen Moia

• Daimler car2go

• PSA Group Free2Move

Autonomous

Connected

Electric

Shared

ACE

S


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Testing and pilot schemes

15

Location Initiated by

United Kingdom–Milton Keynes

Government

UnitedKingdom–London“Gateway project”

Government

United States–Pittsburgh

Uber

Sweden–Gothenburg

Volvo

Germany–Autobahn

BMW, Audi,Mercedes-Benz

•Dedicated autonomous driving lanes•Road signals and signs

Adaptation of infrastructure

•Addressing safety concerns•How to interact with autonomous vehicles

Education of drivers


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Forms of testing

16

Key information CommentRide-hailing State-sponsored pilots

Private research and development and testing

Singapore (Delphi, NuTonomy) Pittsburgh (Uber, Delphi)

Special routes Simple and fixed city trips Campus fixed trips Airport shuttle (two-year test) Between train stations

Las Vegas‒January 2017 (Navya) Santa Clara University (Auro) New Zealand (Navya) Paris (EasyMile)

Self driving‒only zones Small city section at first Urban mega-centers

Campus, military base, airport China, likely as low-emission zones

Low-speed driving Urban or closed communities To limit and avoid crashes

Route- or lane-specific Commuter routes High-occupancy vehicle lane for

self-driving

Replace current ride-sharing routes Seattle-Vancouver proposal


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Strategic partnerships

18

Mapping companies and tier-1 suppliers

OEMs

Ride-hailing, rental, and car-sharing companies

Technology companies


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Recent strategic partnerships/acquisitions

19

• Uber and Volvo

• HERE—expanded consortium of ownership

• Autoliv/Volvo‒Zenuity

• Nvidia/multiple OEMs

• Bosch/TomTom

• Intel/Mobileye


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Regulations

Guidance will shape the future of automotive technology;regulatory decisions will affect how the sharing economy evolves

Regulatory activity is already influential, but it becomes one of the most important market forces for ADAS

New Car Assessment Program (NCAP)

US NCAP adding 7+ new ADAS in 2018

Euro NCAP continues to move forward on

new automatic emergency braking

(AEB) features

Little-to-no activity from other countries

Voluntary agreements

US commitment for standard AEB by 2022

Will effectively make AEB standard

everywhere in a few years, with rare local

model exceptions

What is next?

Standards and guidance

ISO 26262 + Automotive Safety

Integrity Level

New automated vehicle guidelines expected in

the United States

Steady progress on cybersecurity and driver distraction guidance in

the United States

Sharing economy

Open question everywhere today

Even China allowed ride-hailing services in

legal gray zone

Regulation likely to be defined by the current

market


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2017 automotive technology foresight

Autonomous, Connected, Electric, and Shared (ACES)

OEMs acquiring new competencies; more supplier consolidation possible, achieving scale in data and services

Developments in user interface technologies, design, or service

models aim to reinvent the automotive UX

Electronic architectures

Sensor fusion ECUs and central ADAS domain controllers will drive further

advances in autonomy, reduce cost, and save weight

Mobility providers and start-ups push OEMs and suppliers to diversify products and business models

New automotive user experience (UX)

DisruptorsCollaboration and mergers and acquisitions

Autonomy & artificial intelligence

Sensor advances, artificial intelligence, innovative interiors, and platform development toward public deployment

Creation of further subbrands and further development of stand-alone mobility units

2017‒18 foresight


automotive autonomous driving: the short-term...

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