automated vehicles: lead or follow

33
www.advisian.com Zoltan Maklary | Principal, Advisian 17 November 2017 Automated Vehicles: lead or follow Is government ready to decide?

Upload: advisian

Post on 23-Jan-2018

107 views

Category:

Engineering


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

www.advisian.com

Zoltan Maklary | Principal, Advisian

17 November 2017

Automated Vehicles: lead or follow

Is government ready to decide?

What do we see now?

What about the public?

What is the role of government?

The people will decide

Outline

What do we see now?

3.5 billion live in cities today and 7 billion will

live in cities by 2050.

1.2 million people are moving into cities each week.

The number of cars on the road will double by 2050,

even accounting for new technologies.

By 2050 there will be 600% more people on the move

every day.

Sustainable energy and climate change

Increasing computational power

Community expectations

New and evolving industries:

• Automation

• CAVs

• Zero emission vehicles

• Mobility as a Service

• Adaptive traffic management

Economics and industry

$, Choices, Flexibility

Artificial Intelligence

Efficiency and Productivity

Urbanisation and congestion

Many drivers will lead to new technologies and industries

Governments have a major role and

will - by action or inaction - strongly

influence the outcomes.

Safety

Energy Legislation

Service

Liability

Support

EmploymentLand usage

Transport

Infrastructure

Government touch points

What about the public?

What is the opportunity?

Will they use AVs?

How will they use AVs?

The speed of uptake depends on public acceptance

Source: Advisian, IPA, UNSW: Automated Vehicles: Do we know which road to take?

What is the role of government?

Education InfrastructureLegislation and

Regulation

A ‘low road’ – where regulation and investment severely

lags AV adoption

A ‘middle road’ – where regulation is responsive, but

follows observed community choices

A ‘high road’- where the government sector ‘pick winners’

in advance of community adoption.

1.

2.

3.

Driving the middle road

Government should take a path of

middle road leadership where

transport policy and investment decisions

neither significantly lead, nor significantly

lag, community choices.

A four phase national process

1. Understand the opportunity

2. Develop legislation and regulation

3. Infrastructure and data collection

4. Planning and choices

Engage with transport industry partners and road users to

benchmark community needs, hesitations and choices regarding AVs

Understand the opportunity1

AVs offer opportunities?

Road safety

Road capacity

Productivity

Convenience

Congestion (?)

Car ownership

Costs Increased

Decreased

Considerations

• How will the public embrace adoption?

• How will AVs affect mobility, urban planning, transport?

• What new laws and regulations will be required?

• How should the introduction of AVs be staged?

• Will it begin with short trip shuttles, a right-of-way for AVs

on assigned, controlled corridors or a mix?

Possible solutions

Regular benchmarking of community and user group opinions

Consult with industry (local and overseas) to gauge emerging trends

and preferences

Significantly increase community engagement and communications

during test and trials

Ensure trials have sound scientific and engineering basis

Develop concurrent federal and state legislation and regulations

to allow AVs and Driverless Vehicles (DVs) to enter Australian roads

Develop legislation and regulation2

Considerations

• How and when will AVs operate legally on Australian Roads?

• At present fully autonomous vehicles are illegal outside of approved trials

• How does the private sector get involved?

• What about security and privacy?

Possible solutions

Earn the trust of the community through open communication

Discuss the real issues, removed from the hype

Clarity around certification for vehicles

Prepare coordinated plans to align legislation

Learn from international experience

Harmonise state and federal legislation

Report on the number, type and location of AVs

entering the vehicle fleet

Plan for the changes we need to make now

to capture the full potential of AVs

Infrastructure and Data Collection3

If roads could talk, we could…

• Understand and respond to opportunities to enable

and enhance the introduction of AVs

• Develop smart infrastructure: vehicle to “anything”

• Fully leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning

• Review and optimise road design

• Plan for change

Possible solutions

Road authorities to switch from asset centric to data centric

• Real time traffic/road condition data for traffic and asset performance

• Adaptive and predictive traffic management

• Seamless multi mode transport management

Investigate cyber resilience

Prepare existing infrastructure – future proof

Assess AV uptake in long-term infrastructure, land use

and wider strategic planning

Identify other opportunities that will emerge

Planning and Choices

4

Possible solutions

A national approach to collecting and sharing information broadly

Identify a programme of potential investments

Engage the federal and state Infrastructure “bodies”

Identify possible adjustments to existing regulations or legislation

Explore options to shift the road funding paradigm

Cheap

Safe

Convenient

= Transition to AVs

AV

The people will decide

Summary

Government should take the middle road

Four-phase national process:

1. Benchmark community attitudes

2. Develop concurrent Federal and state legislation and regulations

3. Report on the number, type and location of AVs entering the vehicle fleet

4. Routinely assess AV uptake and constantly identify opportunities

DISCLAIMER

This presentation has been prepared by a representative of Advisian.

The presentation contains the professional and personal opinions of the presenter, which are given in good faith. As such, opinions presented herein may not always necessarily reflect the position of

Advisian as a whole, its officers or executive.

Any forward-looking statements included in this presentation will involve subjective judgment and analysis and are subject to uncertainties, risks and contingencies—many of which are outside the

control of, and may be unknown to, Advisian.

Advisian and all associated entities and representatives make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information in this document and do not take responsibility

for updating any information or correcting any error or omission that may become apparent after this document has been issued.

To the extent permitted by law, Advisian and its officers, employees, related bodies and agents disclaim all liability—direct, indirect or consequential (and whether or not arising out of the negligence,

default or lack of care of Advisian and/or any of its agents)—for any loss or damage suffered by a recipient or other persons arising out of, or in connection with, any use or reliance on this presentation or

information.

For more information contact:

Zoltan Maklary

Principal, Advisian

Email: [email protected]