automated selection and robustness for systematic trading strategies by dr. thomas starke,...
TRANSCRIPT
Automated Selection and
Robustness
For Systematic Trading Strategies
Dr Tom Starke
• Traditional approachParameter optimisation on train set
Validation on test set
This is what we can do now:System Parameter Permutation
Supervised compound metric optimisation
Domain Regression
Step-Down Correlation Minimisation
Strategy Selection Automation
Walk-forward optimisation
Traditional Approach
Train Data
Test Data
Bad result - bad luck
Is there another way?
Too many parameters is bad news
for systematic trading strategies
But what is too many?
• Data mining bias very real
Overfitting is hard to detect
Solution:
Use all available backtest data
System Parameter
PermutationEvaluation all possible outcomes*
Turning Data Mining from Bias to Benefit Through System Parameter Permutation
Mean should
be positive
PnL Distribution of all backtest resultsPitfall: parameter space has unreasonable bounds
Domain Regression:The train performance informs the test
performance.
Train performance informs test performance
Correlation of results from backtest of train and test sets
BAD!
• Picking a single parameter set may not
produce very good results
Selecting several of the best strategies increases
the probability of arriving closer to the
regression line
Step-Down Low-Correlation Approach
Parameter sets should be as uncorrelated as possible
One More:
Use random subsamples instead of fixed test
period
Train
Test
Randomised test sets
Estimating PnL Shortfall
BRAC*- Build,Rebuild and Compare
Out-of-sample performance scales with the
mean of the PnL distribution of N
subsamples.
*Building Reliable Trading Systems - Keith
Fitschen
Choosing subsamples for
BRAC test
Mean PnL shortfall scales with OOS performance
Performance of full data set
Adjusted mean PnL of
subsamples
Bootstrapping
Expected
OOS PnL
Compound Metrics
Manually supervised ML
Optimisation: Monte-Carlo vs Grid Search
GA’s may not give the full story.
Walk-forward optimisation
System Parameter Permutation Profitability
Domain Regression OOS Expectation
Step-Down Selection Optimising Outcome
BRAC PnL Shortfall
Walk-Forward Optimisation Algorithm
Human-Supervised Metric
ConstructionOutput Metric
Bootstrapping PnL Shortfall
Questions?