authors george craig, evelyne richard, david richardson david burridge, sarah jones frederic atger,...
TRANSCRIPT
AuthorsGeorge Craig, Evelyne Richard, David Richardson
David Burridge, Sarah JonesFrederic Atger, Martin Ehrendorfer,
Martti Heikinheimo, Brian Hoskins, Andrew Lorenc John Methven , Tiziana Paccagnella,
Jean Pailleux, Florence Rabier, Mark Roulston, Roger Saunders, Richard Swinbank,
Stefano Tibaldi, Heini Wernli
European Regional Activities
WW
RP
Sarah Jones (KIT, Germany, Chair) Stefan Klink (EUCOS)Detlev Majewski (Deutscher Wetterdienst)Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC, Italy, TIGGE-LAM)Florence Rabier (Meteo France, DAOS, WGNE)David Richardson (ECMWF, GIFS-TIGGE)Johannes Schmetz (EUMETSAT)Richard Swinbank (UK Met Office, GIFS/TIGGE)Olivier Talagrand (Institute Laplace, France, PDP)Heini Wernli (ETH, Switzerland, PDP)
Consider representation from: Polar community SERA Eastern Europe
European Regional Committee
WW
RP
THORPEX in Europe
Significant contributions in all areas of THORPEX (DAOS, GIFS-TIGGE, PDP)
Strong THORPEX communities in operational and academic centres (e.g. Data Targeting System, TIGGE and TIGGE-LAM, YOTC)
Current dedicated funding for THORPEX projects: PANDOWAE, PREVASSAMBLE, DIAMET, GEOWOW
Leadership of / support for THORPEX field programs (e.g. CONCORDIASI, T-PARC, T-NAWDEX pilot flights)
Collaboration with other THORPEX regions
4
Sea-Ice limit
640 Dropsondes released over Antarctica(20100923-20101201)
CONCORDIASI (see DAOS Report)
5
Concordiasi provided an unprecedented data coverage of meteorological observations over Antarctica
Both dropsonde and gondola information seem to have a positive impact on forecast performance (preliminary results from NRL, DWD and MF)
Gondola temperature data at 60hPa shows the largest model errors in areas of strong gravity-wave activity
Dropsonde information confirms statistics obtained with radiosondes and provide a more global view
Most models have problems predicting the lowest level temperatures
CONCORDIASI
WW
RPEUROSIP multi-model ensemble
seasonal forecasting with ocean-atmosphere modelsThree European models so far:
ECMWFMet OfficeMeteo-FranceGermany planning to contribute
NCEP has just become an associate partnerNot yet integrated into system
An evolving systemReal-time since mid-2005Common operational schedule (products released at 12Z on
15th)Monthly mean data in ECMWF operational archive (daily from
some partners)
WW
RP
PREVASSEMBLESupported by the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche for a four-year period (2009-2012)Study of all aspects of ensemble methods, for both assimilation and prediction in meteorology and oceanography
Partners: Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL, Paris, Leader O. Talagrand) Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (INRIA, Rennes, F. Le Gland)Météo-France (Toulouse, G. Desroziers).
WW
RP
PREVASSEMBLEThe main results so far for THORPEX: Saturation of prediction ensembles. Objective evaluation scores for ensemble prediction saturate for ensemble size 30~50. This results from the fact that only probabilities for events or probability distributions for small-dimensional variables can be objectively validated. This has significant implications for the design of ensemble prediction system. Ensemble variational assimilation. The ensemble variational assimilation AEARP has been implemented for estimating flow-dependent background error variances and correlations in ARPEGE, and defining the initial conditions of the ensemble prediction system PEARP. The impact is positive for both applications.
WW
RP
PREVASSEMBLE
Quantification of model error for ensemble assimilation and prediction. The evolved analysis error covariance provided by AEARP can be compared with the observed covariance of the total forecast error. This can provide an estimate of the model error covariance. This approach has been implemented in both AEARP and PEARP systems, with positive impacts.
Other work on the bayesian character of ensemble variational assimilation, on the mathematical properties of Ensemble Kalman filter and of particle filters, and on assimilation of images of the oceanic circulation.
Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector
DFG Research Unit2008 – 2014
www.pandowae.de
Highlights of Phase 1
5 Postdocs, 7 Ph.D. Students, Project manager
Collaboration with DWD, ECMWF, MeteoFrance, EUCOS and many colleagues at academic institutions
Dedicated Young Scientists programme
7 Ph.D. and 7 Masters students have graduated / will graduate this year
10 Peer reviewed publications appeared / in press
Phase 1 Research Area Joint Projects
Harnisch, F., G. Craig, D. Anwender, S.C. Jones, S. Lang, J. Keller, M. Weissmann, L. Wiegand, paper in preparation.
Grams, C. M., H. Wernli, S. C. Jones, M. Boettcher, J. Campa, U. Corsmeier, J. H. Keller, C.-J. Lenz, and L. Wiegand, 2010: From the extratropical transition of Hanna (2008) to a Mediterranean cyclone: the key role of diabatic processes. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., in press.
Glatt, I., A. Dörnbrack, S. C. Jones, J. H. Keller, O. Martius , A. Müller , D. Peters, V. Wirth, Rossby Wave Train Diagnostics: An Intercomparison of Different Methods. Tellus A, in press.
Upper-level Rossby waves Moist processes and diabatic
Rossby waves
Adaptivity and Ensembles
Phase 2 (2011-2014)
Core of PANDOWAE will continue as in Phase 1
Partners: KIT, Uni Mainz, Uni Munich, IAP Kühlungsborn, ETH Zürich, Uni Bern, DWD
Funding for Project Manager, 5 Postdocs, 6 Ph.D. Students, Young Scientists Programme, Workshops
Wealth of national and international collaborations
DWD and ECMWF remain vitally important partners
Seek to develop new links to MeteoSchweiz
New Research Themes
New topics in PANDOWAE: • Blocking• Rossby waveguide• Sub-seasonal time scales• stratospheric influence• small-scale processes in tropopause region•YOTC• tropical convection• PDP / SERA pilot project
New priorities in THORPEX:
sources of model error (link to WGNE),
seasonal prediction (link to WCRP)
Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)
WW
RP
EU-funded FP7 project beginning September 2011, Weather component led by David Richardson, Partners ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France, KIT
Significant European contribution to the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) by improving the overall quality of the current GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI), addressing access to data, usability and interoperability
GEOWOW(GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water)
WW
RP
GEOWOW will: significantly enhance the accessibility of the TIGGE
archive at ECMWF for the wider user community, in particular the ability to efficiently access long time series of forecast data at user-specified locations
promote the wider use of TIGGE data for research across a range of GEO Societal Benefit Areas and show how the TIGGE archive can be used to develop ensemble products for different applications
demonstrate the potential use of such ensemble products, with a focus on severe weather, in close liaison with the WMO SWFDPs.
GEOWOW(GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water)
WW
RP
Better understanding of the intense events: processes and contribution to the trend
Links to other initiatives: HYMEX
WW
RP
19September 2010
Links to other initiatives: DWD Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research
Initiated by DWD Scientific Advisory Board led by Gerhard Adrian and Clemens Simmer
5 DWD / University collaborative research groups: Atmospheric dynamics and their predictability Data assimilation Model development Climate monitoring and diagnostics Ideal use of information provided through weather forecasting and climate monitoring to the benefit of the general public
WW
RP
First THORPEX European Regional MeetingKarlsruhe, Germany, 24-27 May 2011
Aims: to review progress in European THORPEX research to strengthen existing collaborations and initiate new
collaborations within the European THORPEX community to identify necessary revisions to the THORPEX European
Plan to discuss European involvement within new THORPEX
initiatives
WW
RP
First THORPEX European Regional MeetingKarlsruhe, Germany, 24-27 May 2011
Funded by DFG, KIT, EUMETSAT, THORPEX IPO, EMS Young Scientist Travel Award
Local Organisation Aurelia Müller (PANDOWAE) 74 participants from 7 European countries and 2 European
Institutions Talks, posters, lots of informal discussion Break out groups reviewed status of European plan
http://www.pandowae.de/en/newsevents/thorpex-erm
WW
RP
First THORPEX European Regional Meeting: recommendations of DAOS Breakout group
Coordination with field programs: data to GTS, publish results, DAOS webpage to advertise field campaigns and data monitoring2-way interaction with data producers: rapid-scan satellite data to be used for field campaigns, and field campaign extra data to be provided to data producers to validate their retrievals coordinated investigation of Forecast Sensitivity to Observations -focus on the Tropics and polesIntercomparison of cloudy radiances should be continued.Data impact / forecast sensitivity of observations on fine scales for HyMeX
WW
RP
First THORPEX European Regional Meeting: recommendations of PDP Breakout group
Revisited actions in European Plan: 1. T-NAWDEX: strong interest to have international field
experiment in 2014/15. Planning with North American colleagues, NMHSs, EUMETSAT
2. Specific scientific challenges: add convection-resolving models, promote use of existing data sets (YOTC, T-PARC, etc.)
3. SERA/PDP pilot project: difficult currently no links to SERA groups; possible sectors are renewable energy / insurance / air chemistry
4. Cooperation with WGNE should continue; new focus on model errors
5. Link to other regions through SWFDPs
WW
RP
First THORPEX European Regional Meeting: recommendations of TIGGE Breakout group TIGGE actions examined, combined and prioritised:1. Establish infrastructure for the exchange of ensemble forecast data and
provide data to users. 2. Develop data access agreements to support TIGGE and the GIFS
development project. 3. Establish a European data set for objective verification. 4. Investigate ensemble data assimilation methods and the development of
initial perturbation methods. 5. Develop stochastic physical parameterizations. 6. Develop a posteriori calibration methods to correct forecast errors and
combine ensemble forecasts7. Develop methods to evaluate the performance of ensemble prediction
systems8. Determine optimal use of resources. 9. Application of TIGGE data for GIFS development project The first three
priority areas are Tropical cyclones, Precipitation, Surface winds. 10.Develop dynamically oriented diagnostics11.Use TIGGE data in other application areas. 12.Evaluate the performance of European LAM EPS for forecasting different
type of Severe/High Impact Weather Events outside Europe.
WW
RP
First THORPEX European Regional Meeting: overall recommendations
Cross-cutting topics between all working groups are ensemble data assimilation and verification were seen as. Joint workshop of THORPEX and the WWRP Verification working group was proposedInvolvement of colleagues from eastern Europe in the THORPEX European activities should be enhanced. Links to SERA needed, e.g. projects related to renewable energy, flood forecasts for HYMEX or the insurance/reinsurance industry.
A useful, productive and enjoyable meeting
ERM Meetings should be continued (when, where and who?)
Support of THORPEX IPO for such activities essential