author: takashi otsuki (mr.), researcher, aperc presenter ... · republic of korea malaysia mexico...

Author: Takashi OTSUKI (Mr.), Researcher, APERC

Presenter: Gigih Udi ATMO (Dr.), Senior Researcher, APERC

2

• Introduction / project overview Nuclear power in the APEC region

• Future scenarios and analysis Economic modelling and analysis through 2040 We discuss three cases: the BAU, High-nuclear and Low-nuclear scenarios

• Conclusion

Contents

3

27%41%

26%

5%

1990

11 826TWh

40%

25%

26%

9%

2000

15 426TWh

40%

25%

26%

9%

2000

15 426TWh

Other APEC

(22%)

United States

(18%)

China

(23%)

Rest of the

world

(37%) 2013

23 307TWh

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC): 21 economies, accounting for 60% of global generation

Share of APEC in global generation

APEC Economies (total 21) Australia Brunei Darussalam

Canada Chile

China Hong Kong, China

Indonesia Japan

Republic of Korea Malaysia

Mexico New Zealand

Papua New Guinea Peru

Philippines Russia

Singapore Chinese Taipei

Thailand United States

Viet Nam

Fossil vs non-fossil in APEC

Sources: IEA statistics, APEC Energy Working Group.

63% in global generation

in 2013

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

1990 2013

TWh

Non-fossil

Fossil

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

1990 2013

TWh

Other renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

1990 2013

TWh

Other renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Fossil fuels dominate the power mix

4

0011112222234444566778

101515

1922

253636

4258

99

BelarusUAE

ArmeniaIran

NetherlandsSlovenia

BrazilBulgariaMexico

RomaniaSouth Africa

ArgentinaFinland

HungaryPakistanSlovakia

SwitzerlandCzech

Chinese TaipeiBelgium

SpainGermanySwedenUkraine

UKCanada

IndiaKoreaRussiaChinaJapan

FranceUS

1

1. We refer to IAEA PRIS database. We adjusted data in several economies; for example, in Japan, Ikata unit 1 is excluded from the figure in operation, and the number of reactors under construction is revised from 2 to 3.

Number of reactors in operation (as of Nov 2016)

1. Introduction / project overview

Major nuclear utilizing/expanding economies are in APEC

Under construction (as of Nov 2016)

24

1

11

32

2

2

53

720

31

4

APEC: 265 World: 449

APEC: 39 World: 61

5

1. Introduction / project overview

However, future direction varies by economy and uncertainties exist

Nuclear plans and targets, selected economies

China Target by 2020: 58GW in operation and 30GW under construction

Japan Amended reactor regulation acts to limit lifetime of reactors, yet the government aims for a share of 20-22% in generation by FY2030.

Korea1 Addition of 4 reactors which are currently under construction (Shin-Kori 4&5, Shin-Wolseong 1&2) and retirement of 12 reactors by 2040, as outlined in the 8th Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply published by MOTIE.

Chinese Taipei Nuclear phase out policy by 2025

Russia Rosatom plans to expand nuclear mainly in the west part of Russia

United States NRC is preparing guidance for an 80-year lifetime (Subsequent License Renewal)

“Newcomers” Thailand: PDP2015 plans to install 2GW by 2036. Viet Nam: Halt to Ninh Thuan project.

1. This study was conducted in 2017 before the announcement of the 8th Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply.

6

• Introduction / project overview

• Future scenarios and analysis Economic modelling and analysis toward 2040 We discuss three cases: the BAU, High-nuclear and Low-nuclear scenarios

• Conclusion

Contents

7

• Business-As-Usual (BAU) Current policy exists over the projection period (2013-2040). Recent nuclear construction/retirement trends considered. Proposed projects are not included in most of the economies.

• High-nuclear (High) Proposed projects are included in addition to BAU projects driven by energy security, environmental and economic reasons. License extensions applied to most of the existing reactors.

• Low-nuclear (Low) Slow down of nuclear developments and accelerated retirements of existing reactors due to various concerns, including safety and waste management.

2. Scenario analysis

Three scenarios to discuss the future of nuclear in Asia-Pacific

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990

1995

2000

2005

2013

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

HighLowBAU

GWNuclear capacity in APEC [GW]

→Scenario

High 477GW

BAU 330GW

Low 214GW

Source: APERC

8

Current status (as of 1st Nov 2016)

• 36 reactors in operation

• 20 reactors under construction

• Target: 58GW in operation and 30GW under construction by 2020 (“Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020)” and The 13th Five-Year Plan)

China – projected to be the largest nuclear economy in APEC

Sources: IAEA, State Council.

2020 operation target (58GW)

New additions after 2020

High Achieved 5-6 reactors/year (projected trend in the late 2010s continues)

BAU Achieved 3-4 reactors/year (The annual average number of reactors installed in 2012-2016 Sep.: 4 reactors/year)

Low Achieved 1-3 reactors/year

Scenario assumptions

0

50

100

150

200

1990

1995

2000

2005

2013

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

High

Low

BAU

GW

→Scenario

IEA WEO2016 NPS: 155GW CPS: 136GW

127GW

176GW

Example of economy

assumption

9

Current status (as of 1st Nov 2016)

• 42 reactors in operation

• 3 reactors under construction (Shimane-3, Oma-1, and Higashidori-1)

• Lifetime: 40 years, and an extension of maximum 20 years allowed under nuclear reactor regulation act

• Strategic Energy Plan (published in April 2014): “Dependency on nuclear power generation will be lowered to the extent possible”

Japan – license expiration of existing reactors has significant impacts

Sources: OCCTO and METI.

Lifetime of existing reactors New reactor additions

High 60 years 3 units currently under construction

BAU 40 years (except for the reactors approved/examined for extension)

3 units currently under construction

Low Same as BAU No new reactors

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990

1995

2000

2005

2013

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

High

Low

BAU

GW

→Scenario

Scenario assumptions

Example of economy

assumption

10

21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

16 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 15 16

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 19 19 20 20 20 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 16 16 16 16 16 16 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 5 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

16 18 18 18 18 18 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 16 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

9 9 9 9 9 11 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5


China’s increasing presence in APEC nuclear generation

Note: Nuclear capacity in each economy is rounded. The number of block does not necessarily means the exact installed capacity. Source: APERC.

2013 Low BAU High 2040

APEC nuclear capacity [GW]

US

Japan China

1GW

(rounded)

21 VietNam

20 US

19 Thailand

18 ChineseTaipei

16 Russia

15 Philippines

11 Mexico

10 Malaysia

9 Korea

8 Japan

7 Indonesia

5 China

3 Canada

Russia Korea

Canada

11

Source: APERC.

Electricity supply model structure

• Future nuclear capacity is assumed by the scenario (not based on optimization)

• The model determines fossil fuel-fired capacity and operation of all technologies, considering policy directions


APERC uses a long-term power supply model based on cost-optimization

Load curves

Prices and costs• Energy and CO2 prices

• Initial/O&M costs

Existing capacity

Operational info.• Plant availability

• Capacity credit

• Efficiencies

• Minimum output level

• Reserve margin target

Policy information• Power development

plans/policies

• Renewables/nuclear

policies

Electricity

Supply

Model

Capacity additions

Investment needs

Generation by

plant type

Plant dispatch and

capacity factor

Fuel consumption

Emissions and

emission intensity

Total and average

power generation costs

‘Least cost’ approachCapacity addition and generation volume is

determined based on costs (initial, O&M,

fuel and carbon costs) under various

technical and political constraints.

Yearly demandDemand

modelsGeneration • Nuclear • Coal-fired (sub-critical) • Coal-fired (super / ultra-

super critical) • Gas turbine • Gas combined cycle • Oil-fired • Solar PV & solar thermal • Wind (onshore, offshore) • Geothermal • Biomass and others

Storage • Pumped hydro • Battery

Modelled technologies

12

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

TWh

Southeast Asia

Oceania

Other Americas

Other Northeast Asia

Russia

United States

China

→ Projection

1 Source: APERC (2016) “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 6th Edition”

Assumed electricity demand, regional grouping1

• Electricity demand in APEC grows by 70% over the outlook period

• China and Southeast Asian economies more than double their demand


China and Southeast Asian economies drive demand growth

China

Southeast Asia economies

13

1 The Outlook energy price assumptions are based on IEEJ’s 2015 AWEO reference case and converted to USD 2012 PPP using World Bank PPP conversion factors; bbl = barrels; and Mmbtu = million British thermal units.

2 Sources are as follows: EIA for US and IEA WEIO for other economies.


Cost assumptions

Fossil fuel prices1 Capital costs of nuclear plant, selected region2

2013 2020 2030 2040

Crude oil [USD/bbl]

108 73 97 121

Natural gas in Japan [USD/Mmbtu]

15.9 10.4 12.4 13.7

Natural gas in the US [USD/Mmbtu]

3.6 4.4 5.4 6.6

Steam coal [USD/tonne]

110 86 103 128

Unit: USD/kW 2013-2040

China 2000

Japan 3500

Southeast Asia 2000

Russia 3500

US 5400

14

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

Other renewablesHydroOilGasCoalNuclear

TWh

Coal

Nuclear

Gas

Hydro

Other renewables

Source: APERC.

APEC electricity generation, BAU


Fossil fuels dominate in the BAU and even in High-nuclear, but …

• Fossil fuels dominate in the BAU scenario, and even in the High nuclear scenario, although accelerated nuclear development contributes to reducing fossil fuel generation.

6%

42%

28%

12%

12%

Coal

Nuclear

Gas

14%

38%24%

12%

12%

Coal

Nuclear

Gas10%

41%

25%

12%

12%

Coal

Nuclear

Gas

Hydro

Other renewables

→BAU scenario

Generation share, 2040

BAU

High

Low

14%

10%

6%

15

85%

90%

95%

100%

1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

High

Low

BAU4

6

8

10

12

2013 2020 2030 2040

High

Low

BAU

1 Emissions from electricity generation in APEC

Source: APERC.

APEC Annual emissions1


… but, nuclear contributes to APEC from the “3E” perspective

APEC Energy self-sufficiency rate APEC Average cost, 2040

USD/MWh GtCO2

Emissions in 2040 (changes from the BAU)

Low: +5% High: -7%

High nuclear

BAU

Low nuclear

High

BAU

Low

High BAU

Low

0

20

40

60

80

100

Low BAU High

USD/MWh

16

Source: APERC.

Generation cost changes relative to BAU, 2040, selected economies

• In general, larger impacts on “energy importing” economies, such as Japan and Korea (-4% and -6% in High, respectively)

• Changes in China and US are relatively small

Economic impacts vary by economy, reflecting cost-competitiveness of the technology

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Low

BA

U

Hig

h

China

Japan

Korea

US

Cost saving in the High scenario from BAUJapan: 4%Korea: 6%

17

1 LWR=Light Water Reactors. APERC also developed another model for heavy water reactors.

Source: World Information Service on Energy and APERC,


A sub-model to estimate uranium consumption and spent fuel

Front-end model (LWR1 model as an example)

Nuclear power plant

Fuel fabrication plant

Enrichment plant

Conversion plant

Uranium Mill

Uranium Mine

UO2

Electricity

UF6 (enriched)

UF6 (natural)

U3O8

Uranium ore

• Fuel burnup: 45MWd/tU (BWR/PWR/ABWR/APWR), 15MWd/tU (LWGR)• Efficiency: 34.5% (BWR/PWR/ABWR/APWR), 33.3% (LWGR)

• Losses: 1%

• Product assay: 4wt-% U235

(BWR/PWR/ABWR/APWR), 2.4% (LWGR)• Tail assay: 0.3wt-% U235 (all LWR reactors)

• Losses: 0.5%

18

0

50

100

150

200

2013 2020 2030 2040

BAU

Low

High

thousand-tU

150

180

130

1 This estimation assumes a once-through fuel cycle for all economies.

Source: APERC.

Spent fuel (cumulative from 2013, APEC)1

• Estimated amount of spent fuel reaches 130-179 thousand tons of Uranium; even Low-nuclear scenario reaches 70% of the level in High scenario

• Economies need to construct sufficient intermediate storage and final disposal facilities


Waste management: headache for nuclear utilizing economies

(Reference: the capacity of Onkalo is 9 thousand t-U)

19

• This study examined the impacts of three nuclear scenarios on APEC’s generation mix

• Future nuclear development in the APEC region is driven mainly by China, increasing its presence in nuclear generation in Asia-Pacific

• Nuclear power contributes to the APEC region from the “3E” perspective, especially in terms of Environment

• Despite the capacity growth in the BAU, the share of nuclear remains around the current level due to increasing demand; further accelerated installation and license extension are important to increase the share

• A large amount of spent fuel is estimated even in the Low Scenario. Economies need to implement policies to construct sufficient facilities for storage and/or disposal

Conclusion

http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/

Thank you for your kind attention! Website link to the full report: http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/file/2017/8/30/APERC_Nuclear_Power_AsiaPacific_Final.pdf

author: takashi otsuki (mr.), researcher, aperc presenter ... · republic of korea malaysia mexico...

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