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Timothy Tan Xin Zhong NUS High School of Math and Science

September 2011

Australia’s trade with Asia – The Success Story Extended Essay

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Table of Contents

Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 2

The Economy and Trade of Australia .................................................................................................... 2

Overview of the Australian Economy ....................................................................................... 2

Overview of Trade in Australia .................................................................................................. 3

Australia, Treasure Island of the Pacific .................................................................................... 6

Asian-Australian Trade .......................................................................................................................... 7

Trade with Asia ......................................................................................................................... 7

Benefits .................................................................................................................................................. 9

Economic Payoffs ...................................................................................................................... 9

Buffer from Global Financial Crises ......................................................................................... 11

Social Implications ................................................................................................................... 11

Potential Repercussions ...................................................................................................................... 12

Unsustainability ...................................................................................................................... 12

Over-reliance ........................................................................................................................... 13

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 14

References ........................................................................................................................................... 14


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Introduction

Australia’s economic relationship with Asia,

one of the fastest growing regions in the world,

have, and will continue to, drive Australia’s trading performance. [sic]

– Australian Government, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade1

According to the above quote from a government publication on Australia’s trade performance,4

Australia’s trade has been mainly driven by ties with Asia. The Department of Foreign Affairs and

Trade expects this trend of positive growth and beneficial economic relationships to continue well

into the future.

In this research paper, we will delve into the general characteristics and the reasons behind this

mutually profitable economic relationship. The significance, benefits, social implications and

potential repercussions of this interdependence will also be discussed from a scientific and economic

perspective. An objective conclusion can then be drawn with regards to the future prospects of this

relationship. Finally, based on our research findings and discussions, we will either concur or

disagree with the position taken by the Australian Government as depicted in the quote above.

The Economy and Trade of Australia

Overview of Australian Economy

Since 1992, the economy of Australia has been growing at a steady rate of approximately 3.3% every

year. This has made history as one of the most stable and productive periods ever recorded, and

ranks Australia first out of all the developed countries of the world in terms of sustained economic

growth. This stability regardless of external turmoil, falling markets and financial turmoil is

interestingly characteristic of Australia, making her the envy of many nations. The significance and

extent of this apparent sheltered-ness of Australia’s economy from negative external influences such

as the recent global financial downturn can be observed in Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP),

shown in Figure 1.

1 Andrew, J. A. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Trade Competitiveness & Advocacy Branch. (2009).

Australia's trade performance 1988-1989 to 2008-2009 Retrieved from http://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/stats-pubs/australias-trade-performance-1988-89-to-2008-09.pdf


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Figure 1: Australia's Gross Domestic Product since 2000

As seen in Figure 1, Australia’s GDP has been ever so steadily increasing over the years, like a snow

plough diligently clearing snow off roads and pavements, regardless of circumstance. Such

unchanging and unyielding trends are typically due to deep underlying economic factors that are, by

themselves also not liable to change. We would therefore expect this trend to hold true in the years

to come. Even the global financial crisis, which is the cause of the slight dip in the GDP from

December 2008 to October 2009, was unable to deter this hulking economic giant from down under.

Australia was ultimately successful in shrugging off the economic crisis and recovered much earlier

than her Western counterparts. Post-recession GDP figures indicate a continuation of the

aforementioned positive growth trend.

Other than boasting positive and consistent economic growth, Australia also ranks highly with

regards to labour, industrial and agricultural productivity per capita.5 Notably, standards of living in

Australia also surpass that of all other Group of Eight (G8) countries with the exception of America.5

Overview of Trade in Australia

Trade is gradually gaining in significance and importance with respects to Australia’s economy. Over

the past 20 years, Australia’s trade volume has more than quadrupled from 118.1 billion in 1989 to

563.7 billion in 2009. This signified a 15% increase in the share of Australia’s GDP attributed to trade

– from 32.5% in 1989 to 47.1% in 2009.


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Figure 2: Australia’s Import and Export Volumes

The graph depicted in Figure 2 shows the period of time where export volumes started to exceed

import volumes. Before 2009, Australia imported more than it exported. However, this changed

from 2009 onwards. In 2010, exports brought in 230 942 billion, while imports were estimated at a

mere 210 113 billion.6 Due to the recency of this data, it is hard to determine if this trend of exports

over imports will persist. However, by considering this graph and some additional statistics that will

be brought up later on, it will become apparent that this trend is likely to continue on into the future.

Figure 3: Composition of Australian Imports and Exports in 2010


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According to the lyrics to the pop hit Down Under by Men at Work, Australia is a “land of plenty”.

She is blessed with a multitude of natural resources – iron deposits, coal veins, opal fields and a huge

expanse of land. Thus, her exports largely consist of primary materials, goods and products such as

coal, iron ore, gold, meat, wool and wheat. On the other hand, her imports are mostly elaborately

transformed manufactures, which in this case includes secondary technology and manufactures such

as computers, office machines and telecommunication equipment.

As mentioned earlier and shown in Figure 2, export volumes are increasing at a much faster pace

than import volumes, with the former having already surpassed the latter. As trade currently

accounts for up to 47.1% of Australia’s GDP, it is in our interests to determine the drivers of this

growth in exports. In Figure 3, the first pie chart breaks down Australian exports in 2010 into its

constituent components – services, elaborately transformed manufactures, simply transformed

manufactures, and primary products. Out of these components, primary products dominate and

constitute 68% of the Australian export pie. If no other information is provided, it would be safest to

attribute any increase in the size of this pie (which there is) to increases in the export volume of

primary products than to increases in the export volume of any of the other 3 less significant

components.

Figure 4: Composition of Australian Exports

Figure 4 gives us the proof that we need to confirm our suspicions, although the component

categories are admittedly different and more varied as compared to the pie charts in Figure 3. Over

the 20-year span, the export of resources has risen from 23.0% of all exports (12.8 billion) in 1988-

1989 all the way to 44.8% of all exports (127.5 billion) in 2008-2009 at the expense of all the other

components with the exception of gold, which by definition is also a primary product. That accounts

for nearly half of the entire export pie. We can now safely attribute most of the increases in export

trade to increases in the export of resources and primary products.


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In order to determine the root causes behind the stability of the Australian economy and the growth

of the export industry, we will have to go even further in depth and study the international market

for Australia’s primary products. Going back to Figure 3, we observe that the majority are Asian,

which is not surprising when we consider the various geographical, historical, political and social

factors which make Australia, a Western country located in the East, so unique. Asia’s skyrocketing

growth, coupled with the commodity price boom that began back in 2000 helped to pave the way

for the increases in Australian exports that we see today. The Asian influence will be discussed in

later sections of this research paper.

Australia, Treasure Island of the Pacific

Australians all let us rejoice,

For we are young and free;

We've golden soil and wealth for toil;

Our home is girt by sea;

Our land abounds in nature's gifts

Of beauty rich and rare;

In history's page, let every stage

Advance Australia Fair.

In joyful strains then let us sing,

Advance Australia Fair.

– Advance Australia Fair, National Anthem of Australia2

Australia is a haven with an abundance of land and raw materials. She is the 6th largest country in the

entire world, with a land area rivalling that of both America and China. With such a huge amount of

land at hand, one would expect an equally large population. However, based on 2011 population

estimates, the current population of Australia is a mere 22 million,7 which is only 7% of America’s

population and 1% of China’s population. Taking these two factors (huge natural wealth and small

domestic market) into consideration, Australia’s comparative advantage would appear to be the

export of the natural resources mentioned above. Indeed, that is currently the economy’s adopted

direction, with the export of primary products having been the main catalyst of economic growth for

the past decade or so.

The table below summarizes Australia’s trade resume for fiscal year 2010. Iron ore appears to be

Australia’s greatest asset, accounting for approximately 50 billion in exports. Coal takes runner up

with 43 billion. Compared to these two exports, the others are not as substantial, falling short and

failing to exceed the 15 billion mark.

2 Advance Australia Fair. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://advanceaustraliafair.org/


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Figure 5: Major Imports and Exports in 2010

Other than the key players iron and coal, large quantities of other minerals and natural resources

can also be found in Australia. Australia possesses the world’s largest share of lead, zircon, nickel,

uranium and zinc, and ranks second in the world for bauxite, copper, gold and silver.

Asian-Australian Trade

Trade with Asia

As a nation whose origins lie in large part in the West, but whose geopolitical and geoeconomic

circumstances are shaped in large part by our location in the east,

there is no alternative other than to be activists both globally and regionally.

This is the inescapable expression of the Australian condition. [sic]

– Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd3

As depicted in Figure 3, 67% of all exports of Australian primary products go to Asian markets. This

Asian influence only appeared rather recently, prompting the shift of attention away from the

traditional Western powerhouses. From being Australia’s 11th largest export market in the late 1980s,

China increased in importance and significance, finally becoming Australia’s largest export market in

2009. Out of the ten largest export markets, five more are Asian, making the count six out of ten,

with the top five being China, Japan, South Korea, India and lastly, America, the only non-Asian

country. This is not all.

3 The Hon Kevin Rudd. Office of the Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, (2011). Australian Foreign Policy

and the Asia Pacific Century. Retrieved from http://www.foreignminister.gov.au/speeches/2011/kr_sp_110503.html


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Figure 6: Import and Export Graphs of Australia's Top Trading Partners

Australia’s export market is the key to the famed stability and strong growth of her economy. Not

only is this market dominated by Asian countries, but this trend of Asian influence is also set to

increase in dominance and significance. Figure 6 shows the trading patterns of nine of Australia’s top

trading partners. As stated, six of them are Asian and highlighted in red, the 10th largest trading

partner being Germany. Interestingly, as compared to the non-Asian countries, all the Asian

countries except Singapore present positive export trends, most notably China and India. The export

graphs of these two countries are also scarily similar to that of the famous “hockey stick” graph,

popularized by Al Gore in his prediction of carbon dioxide emission levels, and by the US Congress in

their recent raising of the American debt ceiling.

These economic trends are hugely beneficial to Australia. Firstly, as seen in Figure 6, Australian

exports volumes have either stabilized or increased over the years. This can be all but detrimental.

Secondly, the increases have been to newly emerging Asian giants such as Japan, China and India.

These countries have a long road ahead of them in terms of potential economic growth. Australia

therefore occupies a heavily coveted position as a market to these growing economies from which


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economy-building primary products and raw materials can be obtained. This allows Australia to hitch

a ride on the upwards progression of Asian economies, both in the present and for many years to

come.

There are several reasons as to why this unique niche in the world economy as middleman to the

growth of Asia is filled by Australia. Firstly, as stated earlier, Australia is a treasure island yielding

bountiful amounts of primary products. More importantly, she can provide large amounts of coal

and iron, which are the bolts and nails required when building an economy and the physical

infrastructure required to house it. Both coal and iron ore are used in steel making, with coal also

being the fuel of choice by the Chinese in power generation. Both of these industrial processes are

increasing in magnitude over in Asia, especially in China. Chinese steel production has risen from

approximately 120 megatons in the late 1990s to 568 megatons in 2010, currently accounting for

46.6% of the world’s steel output. China is also the largest consumer of coal in the world, with the

demand for coal set to continue increasing. These cause the sizable trade surplus currently observed

between China and Australia.

Secondly, as Rudd points out, Australia is a Western country that is geographically based in the East.

This gives her an edge over other Western countries such as Canada and the United States that are

also capable of feeding the growth of Asia. After all, being physically closer to Asia means that

transport costs to and from Australia are greatly reduced. This factor might not seem significant, but

do be reminded that the traffic involved runs into the millions of tons per day, every day.

Another reason behind the selection of Australia as a key source of exports for Asia’s growth would

be her great economic infrastructure. Since the 1980s, Australia has undertaken many substantial

economic reforms such as the deregulation of markets, the adoption of hugely democratic and fair

competition policy, and the reduction of trade and investment barriers. Australia currently

possesses an open, fair, and internationally competitive economy. Taking part in the liberalization of

trade flow, Australia has settled Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with several Asian countries like

Singapore and Thailand, and is currently holding bilateral talks with countries such as China, Japan,

Malaysia and South Korea with the intention of negotiating FTAs.8

Benefits

After introducing, covering and exploring Australia’s trade with Asia, it would now be appropriate to

discuss the benefits and ramifications brought about by this economic relationship. In the following

sections, we will be covering the economic and social benefits, as well as the potential repercussions

of the success story that is Australia’s trade with Asia.

Economic Payoffs

According to classical economics, increases in demand will lead to a subsequent rise in supply,

ceteris paribus. In the case of Australian primary exports, the increases in the demand of primary

products will lead to a corresponding increase in the supply of primary goods. Australian farms and


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mines will find it monetarily beneficial to boost production quantities, rates and efficiencies. The

only foreseeable problem would be the environmental consequences that come with it. That is a

definite possibility, but the likelihood of it being exacerbated to the levels currently seen in China is

extremely low. It is rather farfetched to transpose the side effects of China’s industrialization such as

haze, smog, illegal waste dumping, extensive pollution and the collapse of underground mines over

to Australia. The economic benefits on the other hand, are enormous. As if a seemingly bottomless

market for the export of Australian primary products is not already hugely beneficial, further

benefits include improved production efficiency and the increased availability and quantity of

exportable goods and primary produce.

Another benefit would be the growth of the native Australian economy. According to the estimates

of Ben Hunt, an economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 12% of Australia’s GDP growth

during the past decade can be attributed to trade with China. Over the next decade or so, this is

projected to increase to approximately 35%.

Figure 7 shows the balance on goods and services in Australia. Before July 2008, the figures were

mostly in the negatives. More recently, the zero mark has been breached for longer than a quarter,

reaching a peak of 3740 million in May 2011 and presently hovering at 2012 million. Overall, the

trend is a positively sloping one, a promising indicator of the current economic situation in Australia.

This gradual increase over time is largely due to the recent export and commodity boom. The dip

from March 2009 to March 2010 is mostly due to the global financial downturn.

The export boom and the commodity boom are not the only booms down under. Both combine to

encourage the introduction of another – the mining investment boom. Due to the increased focus on

and demand of Australia’s riches, economists are noticing a surge of investment in this sector.

Mining companies, mostly from Asia, have invested more than 40 billion in Australia in 2010 alone.

This is nearly triple the investment volume in 2005, with an estimated 140 billion more on the way.

Quoting the Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer of Australia Wayne Swan, “Australia is about to

embark on its biggest mining-investment boom since the 1850s Gold Rush.”

Figure 7: Balance on Goods and Services


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Buffer from Global Financial Crises

A large portion of Australia’s economic progress and status can be attributed to Asia, which tends to

be more stable than her western counterparts due to the sheer rate and potential of their economic

growth. It is largely due to this positive influence that Australia has come through the recent

recessions relatively unharmed. Asia’s demand for raw materials persisted when almost everything

else fell during the global financial crisis. This effectively offset the drop in demand from other

countries.

There are several noteworthy points to make regarding the graph in Figure 8. Firstly, goods can be

observed to be more significant than services in Australia. Although relatively more stable,

Australian services accounted for a mere 4000 million in June 2011 while Australian goods provided

five times that amount, with 22 217 million worth of credits. This fits with our previous statistics and

conclusions. Also, all trend lines are seen to be positive sloping, which is due in part to the increasing

demand from Asian markets. The slight dip observed from September 2008 to January 2010 can be

attributed to the recent economic slumps, but what is of importance in this trough is its duration

and extent. As compared to say Greece, Spain or America, the impact of the global downturn on

Australia is not as substantial. According to Colin Barnett, the Premier of Western Australia, China

has been probably been the “single biggest factor” behind the strong performance during the global

economic crisis. He also attributes Australia’s economic growth to China’s “almost insatiable”

demand for primary products.9

Social Implications

Out of all the 8 states in Australia, the impacts of Australia’s trade have probably been felt most

significantly in Western Australia. After all, this state alone accounts for approximately 67% of all

Australia’s exports to China. The social implications of this are enormous. For example, in Western

Australia, unemployment is currently so low that the authorities are predicting a labour shortage. In

the next year or so, the Chamber of Minerals and Energy expects 33 500 more jobs to be created in

Figure 8: Goods and Services Credits


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the mining sector alone. Trickledown and spillover effects have also boosted tourism and created

jobs in other sectors. In 2010, unemployment was at an enviable 5.1%10 and this is expected to drop

to 4.75% in 2011, close approaching full employment.11

Potential Repercussions

When considering the potential repercussions of a particular economic trend, unsustainability will

oftentimes be a key consideration. In this particular topic on trade, speculations of over-reliance will

also surface. We will now cover and objectively substantiate these two possible scenarios and

discuss the likelihoods that they will actually occur in the future.

Unsustainability

There are two aspects which we can look into – the sustainability of supply and the sustainability of

demand.

Australia has run out of iron and coal!

If that were to be tomorrow’s headlines, the Aussies would be the laughing stock of the world.

Indeed, not everything can be infinite, especially non-renewables like coal or iron ore. However,

supply is plenteous and far from running out, though it may actually happen a few centuries into the

future. Although it is impossible to actually quantify the remaining resources left on Australian soil, it

is safe to correlate the amount of natural resources with the land area of the country, and Australia

is the 6th largest country in the world, with 7 692 024 km2 of land.12

There is also nothing to fret about with regards to the sustainability of demand. As depicted in Figure

6, the trend is steeply and positively sloping, which bodes well for Australia. If Australia remains a

good salesman, Asia remains a good buyer and trade disruptions such as wars and embargoes do not

occur, unsustainability should not present much of a problem to Australia’s trade with Asia. Over-

reliance on the other hand, may prove to be a more likely option.


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Over-reliance

Figure 9: Australian Exports

As seen in Figure 9, primary exports constitute a large proportion of total exports. Much of the

growth over the years can also be attributed to the primary export sector. Growth is rarely, if ever

bad. However, the overdependence on the export of primary products is a looming threat to

Australia’s economy. As mentioned earlier, the country’s biggest exports are iron and coal. At 49.36

and 42.96 billion, they even dwarf education and tourism at 17.69 and 12.52 billion respectively.13

To ascertain the economy’s dependence on primary product exports, it is opportune to visit the

economic ramifications of the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and the recent floods

in Queensland. These natural disasters damaged and destroyed coal mines, railways and shipping

ports in Queensland and cut Japan’s demand for natural resources, causing declines in exports.14

Australians are slowly but gradually becoming concerned about their growing reliance on Asia,

especially China. Scott Ludlam, a senator from the Greens party said that “we’re setting ourselves up

for vulnerability”, with reference to Australia’s growing dependence on Asian economies.9 Julia

Gillard, the current Prime Minister of Australia was also quoted to have said that “commodity

exporters have served our country tremendously well, raising the living standards of every Australian,

but an economy that becomes too dependent on any one sector takes too big a risk.”15


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Conclusion

Being the middleman to Asia’s booming growth, Australia’s current economic position is one that is

heavily desired and coveted by many. This is especially so when the West is currently suffering from

financial difficulties, while the East is left relatively unscathed. Australia’s export industry is set to

continue rising, bringing the employment rate, economic growth and stability up with it. Economic

predictions are all in the positives. For example, the export volume of coal is predicted to grow by an

average of 8.6% annually from 2011 to 2015. Australia’s future looks bright and promising, though it

would be advisable for her to diversify her economy so as to reduce risks of over-reliance on any

particular sector. Australia’s economic relationship with Asia have, and will continue to, drive

Australia’s trading performance. It is undeniable that between them, a present-day success story has

indeed been created.

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(2009). Australia's trade performance 1988-1989 to 2008-2009 Retrieved from

http://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/stats-pubs/australias-trade-performance-1988-89-to-2008-

09.pdf

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australia's trade with china – the success story

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