australias pacific 100915013928 phpapp01

Author: jimakosjp

Post on 14-Apr-2018




0 download

Embed Size (px)


  • 7/29/2019 Australias Pacific 100915013928 Phpapp01



    Abstract:My field of study and the area of interest are very narrowly confined to expose, how theweather patterns in Australia are systematically affected by geological process of the

    regions surrounding Australia. This same regional weather changes over Australia asprecursor to respective quakes in the regions surrounding the Indian continent. Theregional weather change precursor type is the one and only possible reliable predictionof any individual earthquakes. Natural hazards like Cyclones and earthquakes causedgreatest risks for causalities and costly damage worldwide. With the ongoing extensiveresearch in the formation of tropical cyclone and earthquake prediction, this article canbe treated as a wake up call to the scientists for finding scientific solutions to both. Theeffect is not simply due to chance but to expose the flawed understanding of thecyclone formations. Instead to suppress my idea at the rudimentary level, it is quiteobviously correct to analyze my findings and correlations scientifically.

    Keywords regional weather regional quake Australia Indonesia Southwest

    Pacific Islands.


    There is currently no reliable way to predict the days or months when an earthquake willoccur in any specific location. For seismologists and scientists, the accurate, reliableprediction of individual earthquakes is a realistic scientific goal. However it is strange tobelieve that except precise time, it is quite scientifically possible to predict any damagingearthquakes before it strike. Each and every form of regional weather changes isfollowed by respective regional quakes in a repeatable manner and thehappenings of earthquakes in a given region have a recurrent pattern. There istherefore, something to be learnt from each such incident. Here the findings are

    observation based correlations. The onset of any regional weather changes set a timescale of advancing the regional quakes usually within 15 to 30 days. However, in a veryfew cases the time scales and magnitude do vary substantially as a consequenceof local site geology and other factors.

    According to the latest study, the relations that exist between the weather changes with

    the seismic events are practically recorded. The scientists did not detect any slow

    events during the typhoon-free season. Eleven of the 20 slow earthquakes coincided

    with typhoons Typhoons Trigger Slow Earthquakes, by Liu, C., Linde, A. T. & Sacks, I.

    S. Nature 459, 833-836 (2009).

    The prime purpose of this paper too is a serious attempt to identifying the natures validscientific earthquake precursors and expose, one of the most significant correlationsfound to exist between the all form of regional weather changes and with the subsequentrespective regional quakes. This article presents new scientifically reliable way offorecasting quakes. Regional weather changes are the first evidence of the anyforthcoming quakes in the respective region, however, this idea is not takenseriously by many seismologists because they were failed in their attempts. So farthe unanticipated natural events like weather changes now can tell the information aboutthe advancing quakes. Though I have my recordings around the globe but here I


  • 7/29/2019 Australias Pacific 100915013928 Phpapp01


    summarizes for the regions surrounding Australia only. Several studies have been madeto predicting quakes reliably but unsuccessful so far, however I hope the weatherprecursor to quakes, will become a valuable seminal resource for understanding theoverall relations that exist between the weather changes and the quakes and helps tomitigate the effects of future great earthquakes and tsunami like nature's fury .Here I justreproduced what I just observed- the two related events happened at different times but

    one event is the byproduct of another. As I am not associated with any seismological laband I could not get necessary support to formulate my findings in a mathematical form,however Geophysicists and Seismologists can further develop these findings in a morerefined way using applicable mathematical formulations.

    Here I am recording the regional weather changes over the Australian regions and theresulting quakes around the Australian regions. The overall weather changes in Australiaare due to the geological process that surrounding the Australian regions. All of theprocesses that are related here started long before humans existed and will likely persistlong after we have gone.

    CORE CONCEPT: Weather Precursor to Quakes

    It is incorrect to assume that prediction of an individual earthquake is inherentlyimpossible since other previous works have been notoriously unsuccessful. The exactsuccess of predicting quakes reliably and accurately depends on the careful study of therespective over all regional weather changes. The causes of the geological processeswithin the earth, having its effects on the atmospheric anomalies indicate the necessaryto understand the interdependencies of weather and quakes. Earth quake is not a longterm process what the scientists now strongly believe but like weather changes itis only a short term process only few weeks to few months. For a specific quake,by means of task of identifying the regional weather changes, at this stage, it is quitepossible to estimate the location & size of an impending quakes based on the quantity of

    flood amount; cyclone strength and the unusual blistering heat but except the exactprecise time.

    Earthquakes are neither chaotic nor complex; it is happening quite in an orderly pattern,the sequences of regional earthquake after respective regional weather changesare repeatable. Like cyclones, the earthquakes occur in the same general patterns andoriginate year after year, principally in certain zones of the earth. Weather changes arethe integrated phenomena of earthquakes, particularly at the origin level. No doubt, allthe earthquakes have respective regional weather changes as very obvious andunambiguous precursors.

    Same Dynamic earth forces for all form of weather changes and the

    generation of seismic activity:

    The geological process within the earth is the direct and primary cause for all form ofweather changes - the formation and strengthening of powerful tropical cyclone; days ofheavy rain, massive flooding and mudslides; melting snow, heavy snowfall, fog andintense cold wave; high winds and thick plume of dust storm; blighting extreme heatwaves and forest fire; massive waves hit the shores and subsequent happenings of


  • 7/29/2019 Australias Pacific 100915013928 Phpapp01


    quakes. Though the collective form of regional weather changes and the respectivequakes are seem to be separate phenomena, but origin wise (geological process withinthe earth) all are same. Here are the collections of my study - shows the significantcorrelation exist between the specific regional devastating weather changes andfollowed by respective regional destructive earthquakes.

    For instance, for any specific Cyclone, after its formation, the land fall may be, eventhousands of kilometers away from its origin but both the geological coordinates of theformation of cyclone and the focus of the resulting quakes have the closeness. Theresulting magnitude of the quakes will also depend on the severity of the weatherchanges; similar to the intensity of a cyclone how depending on the temperature ofocean surface.

    Tropical cyclones originate on the eastern side of Oceans but move west. Most of thesesystems form between 10 and 30 degrees away from the equator and 87% form nofarther away than 20 degrees of latitude north or south. Not only cyclones, majorearthquakes and volcanism also occur along these belts, indicating that and these threedisastrous activities are also often closely related and correspondingly responding the

    same dynamic earth forces.

    Methodology :

    The heat generating system is at the Ocean bed (Mechanical stress liberates heatenergy)

    Normally, when any material is subjected to enormous mechanical stress, it liberatesheat energy between the yield point and the tensile point.

    During the process of an earthquake, two blocks of the Earths crust slide past oneanother generating massive amounts of frictional heat. In fact, Kanamori & Brodsky(2001) describe earthquakes as thermal events more than seismic events because mostof the energy release during an earthquake goes into heat rather than seismic waves.

    The unobserved enormous amount of frictional heat energy generated and released

    during the entire process of a geological process within the earth (the giant plates

    equivalent to 100 km thickness when brush past each other or collide with each other)

    prior to an earthquake(s) could be responsible for the all form overall resulting weather

    changes and the Sea surface warming any particular region. This large amounts of

    generated heat within the earth, reaches on to the Ocean surface by means of

    convection, and thus,large amounts of steamy water rise off the ocean, forming an area

    of low pressure (tropical depression). For instance, the Island regions from PNG to

    Tasmania encircling the entire eastern side of Australia are the birth place for scores of

    tropical storms every year.

    It is from the observations ,that any form of atrocious weather changes happened in anyregion, strongly illustrates the powerful seismic forces at work underground and theprocess for an earth quake is over in that specific region and have to wait for the largescale cracking of ground!. The duration from tensile point to break point (quakes)


  • 7/29/2019 Australias Pacific 100915013928 Phpapp01


    tectonic plates are normally 15 to 30 days in most cases ,sometimes with numerousfore-shocks.Results

    Three basic needs for predicting quakes - fixing of Location, Magnitude and Time:(Based on the table 5)

    i ) Location:The geological coordinates of the geological process within the earth responsible for theregional weather changes will very closely match with the location of the resultingspecific quakes in the same region. Mostly the geological coordinates of the resultingquakes will happen well within 5 degree latitude difference with that of the location ofcyclone formation, but in some cases it was up to 10.

    ii) Magnitude:Normally any destructive regional weather changes will always followed by destructivelarge-magnitude quakes. Based on my observations for any Cyclone with wind speed inthe category 3 and above in the Saffir-Simpson scale; week long incessant rain and

    huge flood associated with blazing heat, no doubt, the resulting quakes will have theMagnitude of 6 and above, however with numerous foreshocks.

    iii) TimeExcept with very few occasions, normally the time interval between the regional weatherchanges and the respective specific quakes will results within 10 to 15 days.

    By monitoring the regional weather precursors very carefully, scientists can determinewhat stage the earthquake is in and possible to predict when the earthquake will occur.Like seasonal weather changes, earthquakes are also having a cyclic pattern to occuryear after year except its magnitude, which will vary with the extremity of the regionalweather changes.


    Nature has no boundary, what each and every country has! The geological process ofone nation will affect the weather of other neighboring nations and also sometimescause large scale death and destruction. With the precise nature of the interactionbetween the atmosphere and the Ocean is not fully understood, the weather changesare the interaction between the geological process within the earth and the atmosphereand in no way to claim that solar energy alone responsible for any form of weather

    changes. Without any geological process probably there would be no weather changeson the surface of the earth. Regional monsoon anomalies are due to effect of therespective geological process within the earth.

    List of Descripancies :-

    Theory on Cyclone formation contrary to basic physics :


  • 7/29/2019 Australias Pacific 100915013928 Phpapp01


    For any tropical cyclone formation, according to the existing theory, the solar heating isthe initial source for evaporation. And the factors like, moisture and surfacetemperature distribution over water are responsible for the formation

    of tropical depression. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5

    degree C (80 degree F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50m (150 feet) for acyclone formation.

    The following evidences are contrary to the theory, that the solar heating is the initialsource for weather changes.

    1. The enormous amount of energy continuously emitted by the sun is dispersed intoouter space in all directions. And only a small fraction of this energy is intercepted bythe earth and other solar planets. The solar constant value is estimated on the basis ofthe solar radiation received on a unit area exposed perpendicularly to the rays of the sunat an average distance between the sun and the earth. It is approximately 1.4 kW/m2, or2.0 cal/cm2/min. How this fraction of energy is converted and used into the generation ofa deadly hurricane which can expend as much energy as 10,000 nuclear bombs!

    Both the cyclones and quakes occur in the same general patterns andoriginate year after year, principally in certain basins and zones of earthbut unable to predict both the events precisely. If the two events are ofdifferent origin at least on one occasion and at least at one place, theboth events could have happened simultaneously at least once by chance

    anywhere in the world, but so far not happened! It is scientifically truethat the incoming solar radiation is the same on the same date irrespective of the year,the actual conditions of the surface of the tropical Oceans are by no means the same on

    the same date of each year. But still the prediction of a monsoon isunsuccessful, though with the help of advanced computer modeling andsatellite images are available.

    Again it would be impossible for the scientists to predict when and where will the nextcyclone will develop and what strength it can attain maximum? Because sometimes thelow depression instantly die down itself with the same speed as it formed over theOcean; sometimes develop monstrously and move violently towards the land or maintainits presence for a quite long time as long as the Ocean feeds heat energy to the storm.But quake will follow without failure.

    2. Further the worldwide tropical cyclone activity peaks in late summer that is in theaphelion (farthest from Sun) position of the earth with respect to the sun. If the solarenergy as the primary heating source of the Ocean, then the tropical cyclones should bepeak in the perihelion (nearest to Sun) position but it is contradictorily peak in theaphelion position of the earth. On a world wide scale, May is the least active month,while September is the most active month.

    3.No Cyclone formations over major rivers and lakes. Why?

    Heating the Ocean and Direction of convection: Only with the up-ward direction of

    convection (Surface cold water replaced by the bottom warm water), it is possible to

    maintain the Ocean water temperature at least 26.5 degree C (80 degree F) up to the


  • 7/29/2019 Australias Pacific 100915013928 Phpapp01


    depth of 50 meters or even more. Again this could be possible only when there is an

    unlimited supply of tremendous amount of heat generating system at the Ocean bed and

    not by means of solar heating alone over the Ocean surface for evaporation.

    When the solar energy is well enough to heating the Ocean then why the

    Cyclone formation is confined to the Ocean alone and not formed over any major

    rivers like Nile, Amazon or Mississippi-Missouri and over the lakes like Baikal

    (having depth 1620m), Tanganyika (1463m) or the Caspian Sea (1025m)?

    Further, after the formation of a Cyclone, it continuously intensifies not only in

    day times but also during the night times over the surface of the Ocean basin

    where it formed until it die down, that clearly indicates the solar energy in no way

    connected with the crucial role in the formation and strengthening of a cyclone.

    4. Warm Ocean water and more number of formation of cyclonicdepressions around the group of Island regions Comparatively lessat island free regions:

    Too many low depressions and quakes are happening mostly concentrated around theIsland regions only. This is starting with PNG to Tasmania of South Pacific Ocean on theeastern side of Australia and on the other hand in the Western region of Australia ,onlyvery few low depressions and quakes happens, since there are only very few Islands arethere. The concentration of group of Island land masses are constantly ploughing intothe Ocean and produce enormous amount of frictional heat. This frictional heat used to

    keep the Ocean waters warm. Hence the eastern coast of Australia is

    warmer than its western side. This clearly indicates that, the Oceanwaters are warm only around the Island concentrated basins and clearly disproves that

    solar energy heats-up the Ocean water.

    Eastern side of Australia is densely populated with Island regions and also known formore active for Volcanoes , quakes and all form of weather changes including frequentevents of storms.

    5.There seems to be no relations existbetween the depth and wide area of watermasses responsible for the formation of cyclones world wide:

    For instance, large basins like south Atlantic, south Indian Ocean and even Arabian Sea(surface area is about 3,862,000 km2 (1,491,000 sq mi)) are comparatively less active

    for Cyclone and earthquakes with that of the much more active smaller basins like Gulfof Mexico, Baja California, Caribbean the Bay of Bengal and Mediterranean sea (area of2.5 million km(965,000 sq mi)) .Energy Paralance :Massive Amount of Energy released by Cyclones- Quakes- Volcanoes:So far no one knows exactly how a hurricane is made. The force and the amount ofenergy release are so tremendous by Volcanoes, Cyclones and quakes.

  • 7/29/2019 Australias Pacific 100915013928 Phpapp01



    Cyclone Quake Volcano

    Scientists at the NationalCenter for AtmosphericResearch estimate that atropical cyclone releases

    heat energy at the rate of50 to 200 trillion joules perday or to exploding a 10-megaton nuclear bombevery 20 minutes. In fact,during its life cycle ahurricane can expend asmuch energy as 10,000nuclear bombs!

    As per USGS, thetremendous amount ofenergy released of Dec.2004,M9 earthquake

    rupture was equivalent to23,000 Hiroshima Bombs or20x10^17 joules.

    It was calculated that theVolcano eruption of Mt. SaintHelens in US in 1980released an estimated 1.7 x

    10^18 Joules of energy overa nine hour period. This isequivalent to detonating27,000 Hiroshima-sizenuclear bombs at the rate ofone detonation per secondover a 7.5 hour period. Thetemperature of the ejecta atthe mouth must be of theorder of 900 degree Celsiusand by the time it reachesthe sea it cools down to 500

    600 degree Celsius.


    Every individual Quake coming with weather precursor of prior warnings

    Just as the Coriolis force has its effect on the spiraling hurricane shape, the orbitalmotion of the earth with respect to the Sun responsible for the seasonal variations on theearth. In that way, if the seasonal variation on the earth theory is valid scientifically, thenthe orbital motion of the earth with respect to the Sun alone responsible for the drivingforce tectonic plate motion and the generation of quakes on the earth. This is why boththe inclement weather changes and quakes are continuous, uncertain and repeatable.

    Every individual Quake coming with weather precursor as prior warnings

    Just as the Coriolis force has its effect on the spiraling hurricane shape, the orbitalmotion of the earth with respect to the Sun responsible for the seasonal variations on theearth. In that way, if the seasonal variation on the earth theory is valid scientifically, thenthe orbital motion of the earth with respect to the Sun alone responsible for the drivingforce tectonic plate motion and the generation of quakes on the earth. This is why boththe inclement weather changes and quakes are continuous, uncertain and repeatable.

    Discussion and Conclusion:

    1. No cyclone formation over major rivers and lakes and the Island free basins.

    2 If the solar energy is the prime source of Cyclone formation then more cycloneformation will happen at the perihelion position of the earth with respect to the Sun butno such correlation observed.

    3. Regions with group of island land masses in the Oceans are warmer than the islandfree regions indicates constant seismic activities at work.

    4. At the Island free regions the seismic activities are considerably less.


  • 7/29/2019 Australias Pacific 100915013928 Phpapp01


    5. Seasonal effects are due to the position of the earth with respect to the Sun and thesame orbital motion of the earth around the sun triggers constant large-scale effects ofplate tectonics.

    Finally when all these factors are taken into account, it can be observed that the weatherchanges are not having any surface origin but often very closely related to earthquakes

    and both responding the same dynamic earth forces.

    In this article the use of the word precursor is more appropriate and safer than the useof the word prediction of quakes. It should be emphasized that my findings in the lastone year up to the largest recent quakes in Chile and the deadliest quake in Haiti havethe atrocious weather changes as precursor is significant to mention here. With everyspecific weather change worldwide, the process for a specific quake is over. The originof the weather changes are the byproduct of the geological process within the earth.Certainly a specific weather changes are exactly co-incided with the specific quakes. Bywatching even the smallest weather changes, scientists may be able to predict quakesmore accurately and warn populations of impending disaster. Yes, the count down for apowerful quake will start, once the very heavy rain is over anywhere in the world!

    I wish to express my gratitude towards the reviewers of this manuscript. I am also verymuch grateful to (Late) Prof.Dr.K.V.Gopalakrishnan, Department of MechanicalEngineering, ICEL, Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, Adyar, Chennai. India for hisvaluable insightful comments and correction and also thanks to my relativeMr.S.Nagarajan, (0091-9443517353) M.E(Civil Engg), Salem, Tamilnadu,India for hisvaluable suggestions.


    1.Hurricanes: The greatest Storms on Earth, by Steve Graham and Holli Riebeek.November 1, 2006.

    2. Earthquake data has been collected from USGS

    Data Taken From:

    The sequence of regional earthquake after respective regional weather changes

    are repeatable.

  • 7/29/2019 Australias Pacific 100915013928 Phpapp01


    Here the Specific Regional weather changes are correlated with Specific Regional


    There are FIVE different geological regions surrounding Australia that affecting the

    weather patterns continuously over the Australian regions:

    1. The geological process of the land masses - PNG, Solomon Islands,D'entrecasteaux Islands region,Santa Cruz Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia andLoyalty Islands, Fiji, Samoa and American Samoa and Tonga, responsible for allkind of weather changes predominantly over Australias eastern coast-entire Queensland and north of New South Wales.



    All kind of weather changespredominantly over Australias eastern

    coast -entire Queensland and northof New South Wales.

    The geological process of the landmasses - PNG, Solomon Islands,

    D'entrecasteaux Islands region,SantaCruz Islands, Vanuatu, NewCaledonia and Loyalty Islands, Fiji,Samoa and AmericanSamoa and Tonga,

    2. The geological process of the land masses - Kermadec islands, NorfolkIsland, Auckland Islands, New Zealand, Macquarie Island, Tasmanian regions,and

    Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge responsible for all kind of weather changespredominantly overSouth Australia, Victoria and up to north NSW,Tasmania



    All kind of weather changes predominantlySouth Australia, Victoria and up to northNSW,Tasmania

    The geological process of the landmasses - Kermadec islands, NorfolkIsland, Auckland Islands, New Zealand,Macquarie Island, Tasmanian regions,and


  • 7/29/2019 Australias Pacific 100915013928 Phpapp01


    Western Indian-Antarctic Ridge.

    3. The geological process of the land masses WESTERN INDIAN-ANTARCTIC RIDGE

    responsible for all kind of weather changes predominantly overAustralia's south-west and Perth.


    Australia's south-west and Perth


    4. The geological process of the land masses - FLORES REGION, BANDA


    responsible for all kind of weather changes predominantly overNorthern Australiaand Darwin regions.




  • 7/29/2019 Australias Pacific 100915013928 Phpapp01


    All kind of weather changespredominantly over Northern Australiaand Darwin regions.



    To the best of my efforts I documented both the events in a very careful manner.


  • 7/29/2019 Australias Pacific 100915013928 Phpapp01


    Record snow fall for Mount HothamAug. 24, 2010

    Mount Hotham(Victoria) has recorded itshighest August snowfalls in almost adecade.In the past seven days 51 centimetres ofsnow have been recorded, taking the tally

    to 142 centimetres for the month.Wild weather hits Adelaide HillsThu Aug 26, 2010

    Strong winds and heavy rain overnighttoppled trees and caused a landslide in the

    Adelaide Hills.

    Flood warning for north-east VictoriaSun Aug 29, 2010Heavy rain has caused significant streamrises in the Ovens, Buffalo and King Rivercatchments near Wangaratta. The OvensRiver is above minor flood levels atWangaratta at 12.1 metres.

    Coldest Canberra winter in a decadeTue Aug 31, 2010Canberra has experienced its coldestwinter daytime temperatures in 10 years.Daytime temperatures averaged 12.6degrees while overnight minimumsaveraged 2 degrees.Victoria on flood watch as storms

    approachSep. 3,2010

    Approaching storms could be the mostsignificant weather event in Victoria for thepast 15 years.

    A low-pressure system could bring rainfallsof up to 150 millimetres across the north-west, north and north-east overnight and

    Quake of M7.0 (M5.2,5.1) - SOUTHISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND(Christchurch), 2010 September 03;Location:43.530S, 172.120E ;Depth:5km.


  • 7/29/2019 Australias Pacific 100915013928 Phpapp01


    tomorrow, and could cause floodingproblems for months.South Australia: Gale ForceSep.4,2010

    Gale force winds ripped through the state

    this afternoon.Wind gusts of over 100 kilometres-an-hourhave been recorded in various locations.