australian centre for innovation addressing the challenges of the future through innovation the next...

Australian Centre for Innovation

Addressing the challenges of the future through innovation

The Next Era of Global Technological Development

Seminar at the John Curtin Institute of Public Policy

Curtin University WA.

Tuesday June 17th 2014.

Presented by

Mal Bryce, Kelvin Willoughby and Ron Johnston

About Continuity, Breakthroughs and Convergence

•The Mature Phase of the Digital Era.•The Biological Nexus of Technological Innovation.

•The Resource Efficiency Era.

Australian Centre for InnovationAddressing the challenges of the future through innovation


More Digital Disruption

Breakthroughs in

Life Sciences

Resource Efficiency

The Next 30 years

Presentation 1

The Mature Phase of the Digital Era.

Mal Bryce


The Digital Revolution

Based on Information Technology and Telecommunications had its beginnings in the early

1970’s and is expected to extend through to the 2040’s.

The nature and scope of innovation which it has produced has been unprecedented.


A “Game Changing” environment….a wholesale shift for society and the economy.


OnlineHouseholders

OnlineHouseholders

InternetworkedCommunity

- virtual- physical

InternetworkedCommunity

- virtual- physical

LOCAL

GLOBAL

COMMUNICATION

INFORMATION

EDUCATION

COLLABORATION

ENTERTAINMENT

TRANSACTIONS

The Digital World & High Speed Networks.

OnlineBusinessOnline

Business

OnlineGovernment

OnlineGovernment

OnlineCommunityGroups

OnlineCommunityGroups

1771 1830 1870’s 1920’s 1971 2030’s

1st wave

2nd wave

3rd wave

4th wave

5th wave

IronWater power

MechanisationTextiles

Steam PowerAnd Railroads

SteelElectricityChemicals

Heavy Engineering

OilAutomobiles

PetrochemicalsAviation

Space

Digital NetworksSoftware

InformationTechnology

Telecommunications

Inno

vatio

n

Waves of Innovation 1770’s – 2030’s

6th wave

Nano TechnologyBio Technology

Bio MimicryResource EfficiencyRe Newable EnergyIndustrial ecology

Classic Phases of the ICT Revolution1970’s – 2040’s

Deg

ree

of d

iffus

ion

of th

e te

chno

logi

cal r

evol

ution

Turning point

INSTALLATION PERIOD

DEPLOYMENT PERIOD

Time

big-bang

Next big-bang

50 – 60 YEARS

Irruption Frenzy Synergy Maturity

1971

1987 2008-12 20?? 20??

SOURCE: Perez, “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital”

Digital Disruption is widespread.

• Almost everything we do is impacted.• The nature of consumption,

competition, and work has changed.• The balance of power between

organizations and individuals has changed.

• Major new competitive pressure has arrived.

• Disruption varies across sectors and geography.


The Age of High Speed Networks mean:

More people, more data, more locations “Online”

and faster outcomes


Globally from 2 Billion, (in 2010) the number of people online will double and treble quickly.


Drivers for Further Digital Disruption


Rollout of High Speed Networks

• Infrastructure for Gigabits and 100’s of Megabits• National retrofit for the copper telephone network.• The best possible mix of fibre glass, wireless and

satellite.• Infrastructure for global competitiveness.

Eg: Telstra to increase its data traffic One Thousand fold between 2011 and 2020


Exponential Growth of Social Media.

• Customer service becomes customer intimacy• By 2012 > 1billion people per day were accessing

Facebook.• Facebook is now second only to Google for Internet

activity.• Growth Rate for Twitter is greater than Facebook.• Customer profiling is ubiquitous.


Mobility of devices, apps and data services

• Smart phones and tablets are the basis of a mobility revolution.

• The Age of the App has arrived• Cheap to access• Meet specific needs• Keep track of their owners• Generate massive volumes of data.

• Globally (by 2013) 30% of all mobile phones were smart phones.

• One in seven online searches is now from a mobile device.• Wearable computers for enhanced reality are next.


Big Data and Analytics

• Unprecedented volumes of data are now generated daily on a global basis.

• Big Data allows large volumes of data to be analysed to identify trends and patterns.

• Current data is now cross referenced with previous data.

• Supercomputing handles the mountain of data. • Data literate people are in increasing demand.


Devolution of Cloud Computing

• Origins in the surplus capacity of the Big Five.• Outsourcing takes over from traditional “in-house” IT

Infrastructure.• Expected to be a Trillion Dollar business activity by 2015’• Delivers new services, cost reductions and support for

remote working patterns.• Provides superior security services.


The Internet of Things

• 26 Billion THINGS connected to the Net by 2020 ?? (Gartner Group)

• Objects, animals and humans automatically transferring data.

• Mountains of data will result.• Billions of sensors and transponders interacting with;

• the internal state of things• the external environment.

• Future concerns about data privacy. Sovereignty and security.


The Maturity of eCommerce

• Basic commercial processes remain the same. Technology has changed.

• By 2013 eCommerce (globally) reached a turnover > $1.3 Trillion.

• Now infinite options to buy goods and services online.• Key Message: Adapt or Disappear.• Unsolicited and targeted advertising push is of growing

concern.


A Wave of New Content:entertainment, visualisation and video

collaboration

• Telepresence, video collaboration and 3D come of age.• Dramatic changes for traditional media.• Smart Glasses leaders in wearable computers ?• Spontaneous citizen Video footage enters the arena.• Since the mid 90’s Online Gaming has become a $70

Billion industry activity.• Consumers looking for interactive involvement in

entertainment.• Migration of artists and audiences to new media


Cyber Security

• A new playground for digitally savvy criminals.• Vulnerability of Online services.• Limitations of national “Statute Law”• Identity theft and the need for certification.• New generation of end user “security services”.• Cyber warfare and new threats to national security.


Conclusions


Numerous Technologies and Disciplines have converged with

Informatics eg:

• Bioinformatics• Geoinformatics• Hydroinformatics• Business informatics• Engineering informatics• Environmental informatics


High Speed Networks and the new digital services have

become basic sinews of our economy.


Connectivity

Creativity

Innovation

Productivity

PROSPERITY

The Links are now undeniable


More Digital Disruption

Breakthroughs in

Life Sciences

Resource EfficiencyEra

The Next 30 years

Presentation 2

The Biological Nexus of Technological Innovation.

Kelvin Willoughby


For One Baby, Life Begins with Genome Revealed

How a California father made an end run around medicine to decode his son’s DNA.

Antonio Regalado, MIT Technology Review, June 13, 2014http://www.technologyreview.com/news/527936/for-one-baby-life-begins-with-genome-revealed/

An infant delivered last week in California appears to be the first healthy person ever born in the U.S. with his entire genetic makeup deciphered in advance.His father, Razib Khan, is a graduate student and professional blogger on genetics who says he worked out a rough draft of his son’s genome early this year in a do-it-yourself fashion after managing to obtain a tissue sample from the placenta of the unborn baby during the second trimester.… The idea of sequencing fetuses is extremely new and sensitive. Khan, who had no real medical reason to learn his son’s DNA code, says sequencing his son in utero “was more cool than practical.” He did it to show where technology is headed and because he likes “pushing the envelope.”

Myriad Genetics Posts Key myPath Melanoma Data -

Analyst BlogNASDAQ --- Zacks.com, June 03, 2014

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/-myriad-genetics-posts-key-mypath-melanoma-data-analyst-blog-cm358611/

Myriad Genetics, Inc. ( MYGN ) reported results from a crucial clinical validation study of its myPath Melanoma test at the 2014 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) annual meeting in Chicago. The Myriad myPath Melanoma test is a clinically validated gene expression molecular test that has been designed to differentiate malignant melanoma from benign skin lesions, with a high level of accuracy. With certain melanomas imitating benign skin lesions, it becomes quite difficult for clinicians to diagnose melanoma in patients accurately. In such situations, Myriad myPath Melanoma comes of help as it has the ability to discriminate malignant melanoma from benign skin lesions, as has been observed in the validation study. The test differentiates between the two diseases by using traditional dermatopathology as a gold standard. A quick and accurate diagnosis of potentially fatal melanoma is now possible, thanks to Myriad myPath Melanoma.

U.S. organizations signing: American Farm Bureau Federation; National Association of Wheat Growers; National Farmers Union; North American Millers' Association and U.S. Wheat Associates.

Canadian signatories: Canadian National Millers Association; Cereals Canada; Grain Farmers of Ontario; Grain Growers of Canada and Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association.

Australian signatories: AgForce Queensland; Grain Growers Limited; Grain Producers Australia; Grain Producers SA; Pastoral and Graziers Association of Western Australia and Victorian Farmers Federations Grains Group.

Metabolix biopolymers are based on polyhydroxyalkanoate polymers (PHAs) and are made by fermentation using renewable carbon based feedstocks, making them 100% biobased in neat form. Metabolix has developed leading technology for production of a broad range of PHA biopolymers as evidenced by an industry leading intellectual property portfolio and continues to innovate further to expand the range of performance and production economics of our PHA biopolymers.

www.bio.org

http://www.bio.org/

Technologies categorized by thetypes of MEANS they incorporate

An approach to categorizingbiology-related technologies

Technologies categorized by thetypes of ENDS they serve

Technologies categorized by thetypes of bio-related MEANS they incorporate

Fields of Bioscience Technology

Biotechnology

MedicalTechnology

Bio-systemsTechnology

Technologies categorized by thetypes of bio-related ENDS they serve

BioscienceTechnology

2006 Professor Kelvin W. Willoughby.



Biotechnology

MedicalTechnology



“Life Sciences”



Biotechnology

MedicalTechnology



BioscienceTechnologyMedical

Devices

Agri-bio

Technology

Bio-industrial

TechnologyPharmaceuticals

Sub-categorized by the

types of bio-related

means they incorporate

Sub-categorized by

the types of bio-related

applications they express



Biotechnology

MedicalTechnology



BioscienceTechnologyMedical

Devices

Agri-bio

Technology

Bio-industrial

TechnologyPharmaceuticals

Molecular biology, genomics, proteomics

Drug delivery devices,

Cardiac rhythm devices

Monoclonal antibody based diagnostics

Fermentation,

Industrial bioprocessing,

Food processing.

IllustrativeExamples(selections only)

Pharmacologically active GMOs

Nutritionally enhanced food

“Nutraceuticals”

Bio-pharmaceuticals

Pharmaceuticals (traditional)

Veterinary

technologies

Agri-biotech

Diagnostic devices,

Medical biosensors Bio-materials

Bio-fibers

Bio-fuels / Bio-energy

Bio-security technologies

Bio-sensors

1800s 1900s 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2025

Today’s advances leverage the accomplishments of previous ages, products, and technologies.

“Bio” business …

Industrial Age

Machine Age

Space AgeInformation Age

Biology AgeAtomic Age

U.S. Bioscience and Total Private Sector Employment, 2001-10, Indexed (2001 = 100)

Source: Battelle/BIO, State Bioscience Industry Development Report (Battelle & Biotechnology Industry Organization,

2012)

Employment Trends in the Biosciences and Other Knowledge-intensive Industries, 2001-10

Source: Battelle/BIO, State Bioscience Industry Development Report (Battelle & Biotechnology Industry Organization,

2012)

Change in Real Average Annual Wages, United States, 2001-10

Source: Battelle/BIO, State Bioscience Industry Development Report (Battelle & Biotechnology

Industry Organization, 2012)

U.S. Employment by Bioscience Subsector, 2007-10

Source: Battelle/BIO, State Bioscience Industry Development Report (Battelle & Biotechnology

Industry Organization, 2012)

Food

Minnesota Life Science Community

NanoTech & Materials

Science

Genomics,Proteomics & High

ThroughputBiology

Bioinformatics &Systems Biology

Imaging / Navigation

Catalysis & Synthesis

(Biological & Chemical)

EnablingKnowledge

Clusters

Education Infrastructure PolicyFoundational Capabilities

Minnesota Industries

v.19jan09

Renew-able

Energy

Renew-

ableMaterials

Medical Devices

Biologics/Biopharma

Animal Health

CommercializationCatalysts

Int’l BusinessSupport Center

Component/Service Suppliers

Academic

Tech Transfer

Acceleration/Incubation

Funding

Leadership Talent

Skilled Workforce

Bioengineering & Clinical Capabilities

Modes of Activity, Bioscience Technology Firms, New York, Late 1990s

Percentage of firms in the industry engaged significantly in each function.Source: Willoughby

71%

89%

67%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Production Research &development

Productionand R&D

Percentage of Utah's bioscience technology firms engaged in production or research, 1998

Modes of Activity, Bioscience Technology Firms, Utah, Late 1990s

Source: Willoughby

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

firm

s in

th

e in

du

stry

en

ga

ge

d s

ign

ifica

ntly

in e

ach

fu

nct

ion

.

Variations in Modes of Activity Between Industry Sectors, Bioscience Technology Firms

Source: Willoughby

Per

cent

age

of fi

rms

in th

e in

dust

ry e

ngag

ed s

igni

fican

tly in

eac

h fu

nctio

n.

New York, Late 1990s

Source: Willoughby

Technological Diversification by Bioscience-Technology FirmsNew York State, Late 1990s

Primary Field of Technology

Number of Firms in Population

% of Population Active in Other

Fields of Bioscience-Technology

% of "C" Active in Biotechnology

Biotechnology 140 57% 100%

Pharmaceuticals 74 55% 85%

Medical Devices 109 21% 91%

Life-Systems Technology 40 88% 80%

Source: Willoughby

“Take Away” Themes

• Biology is an emerging nexus zone of technological innovation.

• The business of bioscience-technology plays an increasingly significant role the wider economy and in a range of other industries.

• The business of bioscience-technology may provide great leverage for regional wealth generation.

• Communities compete with one another to become bio-business zones.

• Successful bioscience-technology firms tend to be multi-functional, interdisciplinary, and communicative.

Presentation 3

The Resource Efficiency Era: Doing so much more with Less

Ron Johnston




Our Understanding of Technology

1. Anything that is in the world when you are born is a natural part of the way the world works

2. Anything that is invented between when you are fifteen and forty is new, exciting and you can probably get a career out of it

3. Anything invented after you are forty is against the natural order of things

Douglas Adams



The Challenge of Predicting Technology and its Effects

• Bell’s talking telegraph only creates interest in scientific circles; as a toy it is beautiful; but its commercial value will be limited (Elisha Gray, 1876)

• The horse is here to stay, the automobile is a novelty (Michigan Bank manager to Henry Ford, 1908)

• Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? (Jack Warner, 1930)• There is a world market for about five computers (Thomas Watson, IBM, 1943)• Guitar music is on the way out (Decca Records rejecting Beatles, 1962)• If anything will remain unchanged, it is the role of women (David Riesman, 1967)• Before the year 2000 is over, the first child will have been born on the moon

(Werner von Braun, 1972) • The Internet is full. Go away. (T-shirt, 1995) • No-one will buy anything over the Web (Newsweek, 1995)• Spam will be gone within two years (Bill Gates, 2004)



Predicting Technology and its Effects –Technological Trends and National Policy

(1937)

• Needs focussed, identified thirteen key technologies within a 15-20 year time horizon

• Identified predicted uses, market timing and impact, and social implications

• Television, facsimile transmission, air conditioning, mechanical cotton picker, synthetic rubber – essentially correct on all counts

• Cotton/wool substitute and photo-electric eye – optimistic timing, different form and uses

• Steep flight aircraft, prefabricated housing, automobile trailers, tray agriculture, gasoline from coal - essentially wrong on all counts



Our Challenge(2014)

• Global population growth – 2.5B in 1943, 7.2B today, 8.3-10.9 B by 2050

• 2.5B people in China, India and other developing counties will enter the ‘middle class’ by 2030

• Increased demand on already constrained resources of food, water, energy and minerals

• Non-sustainability of many current industrial practices, and the growing levels of pollution and environmental degradation

• Climate change



Our Opportunity (2014)

• The need to achieve a Factor Ten increase in the efficiency of resource use will be a major driver of economic activity in the next 20 years.

• Factor Ten is the radical idea that humanity must reduce resource turnover by 90 percent on a global scale within the next 30 to 50 years.

• To achieve dematerialisation, within the next generation human energy use must decrease by a factor of 10 while resource productivity and efficiency must increase by a factor of 10.

• This will lead to transformation of resource dependency and advantage, the creation of a new technological landscape and shifts in the global factors of production.



Sources of Factor Ten Productivity Growth

• Substitution – lighter stronger, cheaper, lower• Waste reduction• Circularity – closed-loop use of resources• Optimisation – predictive and real-time analytics to

reduce resource requirements and increase asset use

• Virtualisation – resources as a serviceHeck and Rogers, Resource Revolution, Harcourt, 2014



Case Study – Transport Current massive inefficiencies in car-based transport

Usage - 95% of time unused Fuel consumption – 86% of fuel never reaches the wheels Average occupancy – 1.6 people Motorways operating at peak capacity are less than 10% covered by

cars Peak capacity is achieved only 4-5% of the day

Opportunities Car sharing Smart roads New fuels - electric Efficient batteries 3-D printed manufacture



Case Study – Smart Agriculture

• Networks of low-cost sensors, actuators and wireless networks for data collection and process monitoring of crops and livestock

• Robots with enhanced senses, dexterity, and intelligence used to automate tasks, such as harvesting fruit and controlling weeds and pests

• Vehicles that can navigate and operate with reduced or no human control to herd livestock and harvest crops

• The simulation of real-time agricultural processes using data and algorithms

• Inexpensive and capable mobile computing devices with high-speed internet connectivity to the farmer in the field

• Intelligent software that can perform farm planning tasks, and support decision-making and optimize large-scale production processes.



Case Study – and Smart Food

• Smart packaging to enhance life and detect breakdown• Interactive labelling to advise on nutrition, energy load, etc• Food tracking and management systems to minimise

wastage• Decentralised and localised food production (vertical

gardens)

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