australia solar farm reviewlccasiapacific.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/lcc_utilitysolar.pdf ·...

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CONFIDENTIAL DOCUMENT

Date Created: 4 May 2017

AUSTRALIA SOLAR FARM REVIEW

Advanced NEM-connected Utility Solar Farms

from Public Data on Operational & Committed Solar Farms

This is a redacted version. The full version is available on Thomson Reuters Eikon

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Australia Solar Farm Review

01

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LCC’s Criteria for Solar Farm Selection

4 May 2017 Page | 3

NEM-connected solar farms that are operating, under construction or demonstrating a high level of

commitment to construction. The selected solar farms meet at least one of the 4 criteria below

Fully Financed 19 (including 6 of the operational solar farms) Solar Farms have raised project finance

Total 803.0 MWac

Signed an Energy

or LGC Offtake

Agreement

A total of 26 solar farms have revenue support by way of PPA of Feed in Tariff

Total of 1,509.8 MWac

Received an

ARENA grant

A total of 17 solar farms have received ARENA grants

Total 730 MWac

Operational or

Under Construction

7 Solar Farms are operating

Total 265.9 MWac


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Summary of results

4 May 2017 Page | 4

Majority of Solar Farms are located in QLD. Leading developers include FRV, Edify Energy and AGL


869

420

210

50

QLD

NSW

SA

VIC

ACT

Solar Farm Location Lead Developer

276

165

155

142124

110

110

110

100

50

4942

40

QLD

FRV

Note: Results ordered by MWac and where only MWp is available an inverter ratio of 1.2x was assumed


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Summary of results

4 May 2017 Page | 5

First Solar is the leading panel supplier (based on announcements). Projects with total capacity of 404 MWac

have yet to select their Panel Suppliers. RCR, Downer and Bouygues are the leading EPC contractors


254

56

40

774

404

Panel Supplier EPC / Lead Construction Contactor

373

257

225

186

155

65

262

Not selected projects:

xx (42 MWac)

xx (100 Mwac)

xx (100 Mwac)

xx (20 MWac)

First Solar


RCR

Not selected projects:

xx (100 Mwac)

xx (100 Mwac)

xx (20 MWac)

xx (142 MWac)

xx(42 MWac)


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Summary of results

4 May 2017 Page | 6

Origin, Energy Australia and AGL are the largest energy/LGC off-takers. CEFC leads the project finance league

table


387

241

155148

124

110

100

100

5850

46

Energy / LGC Offtaker Solar Project Finance (Loan MW’s)

310

78

67

6655

410

362

Origin

CEFC


Not Selected projects:

xx (100 MWac)

xx (42 MWac)

xx (100 Mwac)

xx (100 Mwac)

xx (20 MWac)


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Cost Pathway

4 May 2017 Page | 7

Significant committed development pipeline from slow beginnings in 2012. Estimated Development Costs per

MWac on downwards trajectory

Date of Final Investment Decision

Development cost of $1m plus $50k per MWac assumed



$1.20

$1.70

$2.20

$2.70

$3.20

Apr-12 Oct-12 May-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Sep-17

Estimated Cost (incl. Development) per MWac


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Discussion

4 May 2017 Page | 8

30 projects totalling 1,574.8 MWac are operating, under construction or demonstrating a high level of

commitment to construction

Significant committed development pipeline from slow beginnings in 2012

o 7 solar farms totaling 265.9 MWac operating

o 3 solar farms totaling 37 MWac under construction

o 11 solar farms totaling 909.9 MWac have reached financial close

o 5 solar farms totaling 362.0 MWac are well advanced

Nearly all solar farms selected have a commercial PPA or long term sale of LGC’s (other large solar farms recently in the media proposing

to construct on a merchant basis have not been included because there is no public evidence of key contract commitments)

RCR has been awarded EPC/lead contractor status on 6 solar farms totaling 372.9 MWac all of which have reached financial close;

Downer EDI has been awarded 3 solar farms totaling 225 MWac, one of which is under construction (Valdora) and one has reached

financial close

FRV, Edify Energy, and AGL are the most successful of the developers

CEFC leads the project finance league table with Westpac the best of the commercial lenders

Origin Energy & Energy Australia are the key supporters of third party solar farms through Power Purchase Agreements with AGL Energy

limiting support to self developed solar farms



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LCC Asia Pacific Overview

02

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A Boutique Firm, Calibrated To Performance

4 May 2017 Page | 10

An independent investment banking Firm, with over a decade of experience delivering “Excellence”

LCC Asia Pacific is a boutique investment banking practice, providing independent corporate finance & strategy advice

to clients in Australia and across Asia Pacific markets. We have acted for ambitious clients from “emerging” companies

to Fortune 100 & “Mega” Asian listed entities

LCC Asia Pacific provides clear, unbiased counsel to CEOs and Boards of Directors considering growth strategies,

business transformation and challenging corporate decisions. We understand that to service such clients requires a

high performance approach

The common thread for all clients is our ability to apply our expertise & skills in such a way that the client can enjoy

material benefit. We are often called into “urgent”, contentious & complex situations

We are distinguished from our competition by our bespoke solutions driven by lateral & analytical problem solving

capabilities, ongoing investment in best in class research & technology resources, first-class execution of client

engagements, and a fundamental commitment to a “client-first approach”. At the core of our work is always analysis

of impact on “shareholder value” of any proposed initiative

We believe that all service providers should be driven by “Excellence”, and we strive to

achieve this standard in all things we do. “Excellence” defines the DNA of our Firm

LCC ASIA PACIFIC OVERVIEW

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Asia Pacific Experience Across Multiple Sectors

4 May 2017 Page | 11

We are ambitious to work cross border, advancing strategic initiatives for Clients in many cultures

CHINA

Outbound: Gold. Industrial. Agri.

Services. E & C. Energy Services.

Energy

VIETNAM

Inbound: TMT. Energy. Food,

Water

MALAYSIA

Inbound: Energy. TMT. Energy Services.

Industrial

THAILAND

Inbound: Gold

Outbound: Renewables

MONGOLIA

Inbound: Energy

INDIA

Outbound: TMT. Energy

SINGAPORE

Multiple

INDONESIA

Inbound: Mining Services.

Energy, Water

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Inbound: Energy. Gold. Mining Services

Outbound: Energy

PHILLIPINES

Inbound: Tech Infrastructure.

Services, Water & Waste

Outbound : TMT. Services

AUSTRALIA

Multiple

NEW ZEALAND

Inbound: Services. Resources.

Energy. TMT

HONG KONG

Outbound: Gold. Mining Services.

Technology. Energy Services.

Energy


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LCC Asia Pacific Research & Distribution

4 May 2017 Page | 12

Our publications take a 360-degree view of the information our clients want – this means information

meaningfully distilled in order to present a commercially driven insight LCC’s research capability produces highly regarded publications aimed at giving clients

and industry associates an edge by providing in simple form key data and analysis

We recognise that businesses have become global, digitised, data-driven & personalized.

Our publications take a 360-degree view of the information our clients want

Stay in the know, in real-timeLCC operates a number of leading business

twitter feeds that aggregate M&A news

primarily with an eye on Australasian

developments.

Our @MergerNews / @NicholasAssef feed has

been recognised by UK’s RealBusiness as one

of the Top 10 financial feeds in the world to

follow.

@LCCAsiaPacific Covering macro economic,

regulatory and business issues, including

developing business news

@MergerNews A pure Merger & Acquisition activity

feed that provides a combination of Stock

Exchange announcements and news articles

@WindSolarMerger A combined feed on corporate

and M&A developments for both Wind and Solar

across the Australasian / Pacific Rim geographies

Publication series Frequency Distribution

Se

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ase

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Mining Report Weekly, since

2011

Australian Engineering, Contractors and Service

Providers Report

Semi-annually

Wind & Solar Report Monthly, since

2015

Artic

les

LCC’s latest thinking on trends in M&A, risk and

analytics to provide critical insight for top management.

In the format of a commentary, interview or slide deck

Quarterly

Wh

ite

pa

pe

rs

LCC’s latest research on general business and

leadership issues through a corporate finance lens

Semi-annually


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PHILANTHROPY

LCC has been a giving organisation for over 10 years, be that through

donation, corporate sponsorship of philanthropic initiatives or promoting

charitable causes for wider community support. Our annual efforts strive

to generate over A$100,000 in financial benefit for the charities we

support.

GOVERNANCE unglobalcompact.org

We are governed by our commitment as a signatory to the UN Global

Compact, a strategic policy initiative for businesses committed to aligning

their operations and strategies to ten universally accepted principles in

the areas of human rights, labour, environment and anti-corruption.

ACADEMIA bond.edu.au

LCC and Bond University have a relationship based on the importance of

success, academic integrity and outstanding performance. LCC has

sponsored various faculty awards in both the Business and Law Schools.

SPORT lccapacsailing.com

LCC has sponsored 12ft skiffs in Sydney over numerous sailing seasons.

In partnership with Variety the Children’s Charity, we proudly supported

the Variety Port Jackson 12ft Skiff Championships. This event raised

support for Alopecia Areata, which is a medical condition of which there is

no known cure.

LCC Asia Pacific’s Community Focus

Page | 13


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4 May 2017 Page | 14

IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This presentation (‘Presentation’) has been drafted by LCC Asia Pacific Pty Limited and/or its affiliates (together, “LCC”) for the exclusive use of the party to whom LCC delivers this presentation (the “Recipient”) using

information provided from a variety of sources, including publicly available information and potentially information from the Recipient. You acknowledge and agree LCC has not independently verified the information contained in this Presentation, nor

does LCC make any representation or warranty, either express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this Presentation. This Presentation should not be regarded by the Recipient as a substitute for

the exercise of its own judgment, and the Recipient is expected to rely on its own due diligence, including separate legal, tax and accounting, if it wishes to proceed further in relation to any transaction concept outlined in this Presentation.

The indicative valuations, forecasts, estimates, opinions and projections contained in this Presentation involve elements of subjective judgment and analysis. They are based on facts and data that are often subject to rapid change. Any opinions

expressed in this material are subject to change without notice. This Presentation may contain forward-looking statements, included those reported by various Companies. LCC undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements for

events or circumstances that occur subsequent to such dates or to update or keep current any of the information contained in this Presentation. Any estimates or projections as to events that occur in the future (including projections of revenue,

expense, net income and stock performance) are based upon the best judgment of LCC from the information provided by the Recipient and other publicly available as of the date of this presentation. Any statements, estimates or projections as to

LCC’s fees or other pricing are accurate only as at the date of this presentation. There is no guarantee that any of these estimates or projections will be achieved. Actual results will vary from the projections and such variations may be material.

Nothing contained in this Presentation is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or presentation as to the past or the future. LCC, its affiliates, directors, employees and/or agents expressly disclaim any and all liability relating or resulting from

inaccurate or incomplete information and the use or reliance of all or any part of this Presentation or any of the information contained within this Presentation.

By accepting this Presentation, the Recipient acknowledges and agrees that LCC will at all times act as an independent contractor on an arm’s-length basis and will not act in any other capacity, including in a fiduciary capacity, with respect to the

Recipient. LCC may provide services to any member of the same group as the Recipient or any other entity or person (a “Third Party”), engage in any transaction (on its own account or otherwise) with respect to the Recipient or a Third Party, or act in

relation to any matter for itself or any Third Party, notwithstanding that such services, transactions or actions may be adverse to the Recipient or any member of its group, and LCC may retain for its own benefit any related remuneration or profit.

This Presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not to be constructed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The Recipient should not construe the contents of this

presentation as legal, tax, accounting or investment advice or a recommendation. The Recipient should consult its own counsel, tax and financial advisors as to legal and related matters concerning any transaction described in this Presentation. This

Presentation does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that the Recipient may require. No investment, divestment or other financial decisions or actions should be based solely on the information in this Presentation.

This presentation has been prepared on a confidential basis solely for the use and benefit of the Recipient. Distribution of this presentation to any person other than the Recipient and those persons retained to advice the Recipient, who agree to

maintain the confidentiality of this material and be bound by the limitations outlined herein, is not authorized by LCC. LCC specifically prohibits the redistribution or reproduction of this material in whole or in part without the written permission of LCC

and LCC accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.

LCC holds a series of registered trademarks in the United States of America and Australia to protect its intellectual property. Examples of regional engagements detailed in this Work Book are typically advisory or consulting in style, or involve an

Australian company that is either seeking to expand into a market or has assets within that market. Today LCC is a licensed wholesale securities dealer in Australia only

Office Contact Details

SYDNEY

Suite 3, Level 39, Aurora Place

88 Phillip Street

Sydney NSW 2000

AUSTRALIA

T: +612 9262 2121

F: +612 8088 1239

Correspondence

GPO Box 4154 Sydney NSW 2001

HONG KONG

20/F One International Finance

Centre

1 Harbour View Street Central Hong

Kong

HONG KONG

T: +852 3960 6532

F: +852 3669 8008

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ACN 105 807 645

Initial contacts to:

Simon MathisDirector

Cell: + 61 432 241 843

[email protected]

Nicholas Assef

Executive Director

Cell : + 61 424 222 444

[email protected]

http://www.lccapac.com/

mailto:[email protected]

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