austerity in europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries*...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
![Page 2: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
Austerity in Europe Hans-Werner Sinn January 2014
![Page 3: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
Summary of the
argument
![Page 4: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
Austerity of a currency union as a whole versus Austerity of a sub-region within a currency union
![Page 5: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
• Exits may be better than austerity
• The Eurozone needs austerity in the south to realign relative prices • Austerity comes from markets; policy softens the budget constraints
![Page 6: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
The Euro Trap
On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets and Beliefs
Hans-Werner Sinn CESifo Munich
2014 Oxford University Press
H.-W. Sinn, „Austerity, Growth and Inflation: Remarks on the Eurozone’s Unresolved Competitiveness Problem,“ The World Economy 36, 2013
![Page 7: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
The bubble
![Page 8: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
%
Irrevocably fixed conversion rates
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
40
35
Summit of EU governments
in Madrid
Net yields for 10-year government bonds
December 2013
Germany
Italy
Greece
Spain Portugal
Ireland
France Belgium
![Page 9: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
%
Irrevocably fixed conversion rates
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
40
35
Summit of EU governments
in Madrid
Net yields for 10-year government bonds
December 2013
Germany
Italy
Greece
Spain Portugal
Ireland
France Belgium
![Page 10: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
2012 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013
Spain
Ireland
%
Source: Eurostat; December 2013.
Portugal
2
9
16
23
30 Greece
Italy
Unemployment rates in Europe
Cyprus
![Page 11: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Spain Greece
%
Cyprus
Source: Eurostat, December 2013.
Ireland
Italy Portugal
Youth unemployment (< 25 years)
![Page 12: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Advanced economies
Emerging and developing economies
Spain Greece
Italy
Portugal
Source: Eurostat; OECD; CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, World Trade Monitor.
2008Q1=100
Industrial production
Ireland
![Page 13: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
The realignment problem
![Page 14: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
60
80
100
120
140
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Greece Italy Ireland
Portugal
Spain
France
Germany
Q3/2008=100
Real exchange rates (GDP deflator relative to rest of euro area)
& necessary realignment according to Goldman Sachs
Long run target
Italy
Lehman
![Page 15: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
Four dismal options
1. Transfer union
![Page 16: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
Four dismal options
2. Deflation in the periphery (austerity)
1. Transfer union
![Page 17: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
Four dismal options
2. Deflation in the periphery (austerity)
3. Inflation in the core
1. Transfer union
![Page 18: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
Four dismal options
2. Deflation in the periphery (austerity)
4. Exits
3. Inflation in the core
1. Transfer union
![Page 19: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
Austerity or
soft budget constraints?
![Page 20: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
Bail out with the printing press: Non-investment grade collateral for ECB refinancing credit
![Page 21: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
%
Base money originating in
GIPSIC
81%
Monetary base GIPSIC
Inside money and outside money
55%
Monetary base Eurozone
Inside money non-GIPSIC Monetary base
non-GIPSIC
Outside money ( GIPSIC Target balance)
26%
![Page 22: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
639
56
72
116
213
61
41
1090
5
Target liabilities* (GIPSIC)
Purchases of GIPSIC government bonds by the central banks of the other euro countries*
Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF)
Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF, IMF)
Claims related to the under-proportionate
issuance of banknotes )
(64%) ECB
(36%) Parliaments Spain (ESM)
Lending funds to euro countries (Billion euros)
Paid-out to date
* Updated 13 December 2013
Cyprus (ESM)
698
392
![Page 23: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
= abolishment of risk premia ex ante = credit bubbles and overheating = lack of reforms and realignment efforts ex post
Soft budget constraints
![Page 24: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
Harold James, Princeton: The Hamiltonian scheme of federal finance did not guarantee a peaceful commonwealth. “In fact the fiscal union proved to be explosive rather than cement.”
Soft budget constraints are dangerous
![Page 25: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
Unsustainable debt
![Page 26: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
Debt sustainability requires real devaluations, but real devaluations increase the debt-to-GDP ratios.
![Page 27: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
Greece
Ireland Portugal Spain Italy
NB: without haircut
Official public debt
157
118 124 84
127
211
Official public debt at
competitive GDP prices
197
114 173 118
141
294
Actual and hypothetical public debt-to-GDP ratios ( 2012, % )
![Page 28: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
The way out
![Page 29: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
Three basic measures to rescue the EU and the euro
1. Debt conference to forgive part of the public debt, the bank debt and the Target debt
3. Harder local budget constraints for central banks (settlement of new Target balances, internal gold standard like US until 1975)
2. Temporary exits of severely uncompetitive countries
![Page 30: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn
A “breathing currency union”
placed between
Bretton Woods and the dollar
until the
United States of Europe
is founded
![Page 31: Austerity in Europe - cesifo-group.de · bonds by the central banks . of the other euro countries* Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF) Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF) Portugal (EFSM, EFSF,](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050303/5f6bc9d485f28903f8090bac/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
H.-W. Sinn