august 25, 2015s. mathews1 human geography by james rubenstein chapter 2 key issue 3 why is...
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April 19, 2023 S. Mathews 1
Human Geography
By James RubensteinChapter 2
Key Issue 3Why is Population Increasing
at Different Rates in Different Countries?
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Demographic Transition
The five stages of change in populations through which society
progresses.
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Stages of Demographic Transition
Stage 1: Low Growth Stage 2: High Growth Stage 3: Moderate Growth Stage 4: Low Growth Stage 5: Negative Growth* * not in text
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World Populations and Growth Rates
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Stage 1: Low Growth
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Stage 1 Characteristics
Humans were hunters and gatherers
NIR was essentially zero WP was perhaps ½ million The WP increased and decreased
with the availability of food
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Agricultural Revolution
A time, between 8000 B.C. and 1750 A.D.,
when human beings domesticated plants
and animals.
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Effects of the Agricultural Revolution
A larger, more stable supply of food More people could survive WP increased from about 5 to 800
million War and disease still took toll Still Stage 1 until 1750 A.D. No country is at stage 1 today
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Stage 2: High Growth
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Industrial Revolution
A conjunction of major improvements in
industrial technology that transformed the process of manufacturing goods and delivering them to
market.
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Stage 2 Characteristics
Unprecedented level of wealth Increased agricultural production
fed the rapidly growing population people freed to work in factories Improved sanitation and personal
hygiene
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Medical Revolution
Medical technology invented in Europe and North America, diffused to LDCs of Africa, Asia,
and Latin America.
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Medical Revolution
Edward Jenner developed a smallpox vaccination in 1796
Penicillin and other vaccines and insecticides were developed to combat diseases
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Effects of the Industrial and Medical Revolutions
CDR suddenly plummeted WP grew 10 times faster At first, accelerating population
growth then, growth rate slowed, but large
gap remained between births and deaths.
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Stage 2 Transition Dates
Europe and North America about 1800
Africa, Asia, and Latin America about 1950
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Stage 3: Moderate Growth
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Stage 3 Characteristics
Begins with a sudden decline of CBR CBR is still greater than CDR The NIR is more modest than Stage 2 CDR declines due to new technology CBR changes due to social changes
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Social Changes
People choose to have fewer children
Delayed reaction to decline in IMR
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Economic Changes
Children living on farms shared the chores
As technology improved, people moved from the farm to the city
Children living in the cities are not economic assets to their families
Urban homes too small to accommodate large families
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Stage 3 Transition Dates
Europe and North America moved in the first half of the twentieth century
Asia, and Latin America in recent years
Africa still in Stage 2
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Stage 4: Low Growth
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Zero Population Growth (ZPG)
When the CBR and CDR are near equal, the NIR
approaches zero (measured by a lack of
change in the TFR over a long period).
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Stage 4 Characteristics
A country with many immigrants must decrease TFR to achieve ZPG
CBR can be slightly higher then CDR, with some females dying before they reach childbearing years.
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Stage 4 Transition Dates
Most of Europe reached Stage 4 since 1970s
The United States TFR went below ZPG (replacement level of 2.1) in 2000, but immigration prevents them from reaching Stage 4
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Social Customs in Stage 4
More women enter work force Working parents must employ
preschool care during work hours Wider variety of birth-control Participation in entertainment and
recreational activities not suitable for children
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Stage 5:Negative Growth
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Negative Growth
The CBR is lower than the CDR
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Negative Growth as result of fifty years of Communism in some Eastern European,
most notably; Russia Hungary Germany (Eastern)
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Reasons for Negative Growth
Very strong family planning programs
Deep-seated pessimism about having children in an uncertain world
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The Demographic Transition in
England England has reached Stage 4 1000 years of population
information available Boundaries unchanged Migration limited
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Stage 1 Characteristics
In 1066, population was 1 million
In 1250, the population declined from 4 to 2 million
By 1750, the population had reached only 6 million
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Stage 2 Characteristics
By 1800, the CBR remained high, but CDR declined
Industrial Revolution increased food supply and improved health care
By early 1900s, population increased from 6 to 30 million (NIR = 1.4%)
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Stage 3 Characteristics
Between 1880 and early 1900s While CDR declined, the CBR
declined rapidly Between 1880 and 1970, the
population increased from 26 to 49 million (NIR = .07%)
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Stage 4 Characteristics
Since 1970s, CBR has varied between 12 to 14 per 1000, while CDR has varied between 10 to 12 per 1000
Population has increased due to immigration from former colonies
Population is currently around 52 million
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Population Pyramids
A country’s stage of demographic transition
gives a distinctive population structure which can be easily
viewed in a population pyramid.
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Population Pyramids
A bar graph that displays a country’s population
by age and gender groups.
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Characteristics of Population Pyramids
population shown in five-year age groups
length of the bar represents % of total population in that group
males shown on left side and women on right
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Age Distribution
Structure of populations are important in understanding similarities and differences
among countries.
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Dependency RatioThe number of people who
are too young or too old to work, compared to the number of people in their
productive years.0 – 14 (too young)
15 – 64 (productive years)65+ (too old)
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Dependency Ratio in Demographic
Transition 1:1 dependency in stage 2 1:3 dependency in stage 4 10:1 young to old in stage 2
1:1 young to old in stage 4
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Population Under 15
In LDCs 1/3rd of population are under 15 (stage 2)
In European and North America, 1/5th of population under 15 (in/near stage 4)
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The large percentage of children in stage 2 countries
strain the resources to provide needed services to
the dependent group.
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Percentage of Population
Over 65 Exceed 15% in Europe Less than 5% in Sub-Sahara Africa
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More than 1/4th of all government
expenditures in the U.S., Canada, Japan, and some European countries go to
Social Security, health care, and other programs
for older people.
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Sex Ratio
The number of males per hundred females in the
population.
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Sex Ratio Facts In general more males are born than females, but males have a higher death rate.
Societies with a high rate of immigration typically have more males than females. Why?
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The shape of a community’s
population pyramid tells a lot about its
distinctive character.
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What do Detroit’s and Laredo's Population
Pyramids tell us?
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Detroit, Michigan82% African Americans
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Laredo, Texas94% Hispanic
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Detroit and Laredo have relatively broad-based pyramids, because the birth rates of the cities’
majorities are high.
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What do Honolulu’s and Cedar Rapids'
Population Pyramids tell us?
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Honolulu, Hawaii 66% Asian-American and/or
Native Hawaiian
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Cedar Rapids, Iowa92% White
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The birth rates of Honolulu and Cedar
Rapids communities are low among those Asian
Americans and European-descendent
communities respectively.
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What’s happening in Naples, Florida?
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42% over 65in
Naples,
Florida
Retirement Community
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What’s happening in Unalaska, Alaska?
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Military Base
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What’s happening in Lawrence, Kansas?
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College Town
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View Demographic Transition as reflected
in Population Pyramids.
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Examples of Demographic
Transition Cape Verde: Stage 2 (High Growth)
Chile: Stage 3 (Moderate Growth)
Denmark: Stage 4 (Low Growth)
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Cape Verde: Stage 2 Between 1941 and 1942, CDR was 74/1000 due to severe famine (stage 1).
An anti-malarial campaign since 1950 tripled the population (NIR of 3%.) = stage 2
CDR dropped from 27-17 in 1950, to 10 in the 1970s.
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Fluctuations in CBR Severe famine in the 1940s. Lower birth rates in the 1960s, due to few women in prime childbearing years (1940s famine).
Higher birth rates in 1950s and 1980s (larger number of women in childbearing years).
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What is the long term effect of severe famine?
Lower birth rates in the 1960s, due to few women in prime childbearing years (1940s famine).
Higher birth rates in 1950s and 1980s (larger number of women in childbearing years).
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Cape Verde
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Chile’s Transition History
Entered 20th century in Stage 1
1930’s infusion of medical technology = stage 2.
1960’s vigorous governmental family-planning policy = stage 3.
Reversed policies in 1970s = delay in stage 4.
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Chile
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Denmark: Stage 4
Stage 3 in late 19th century.
ZPG in 1970s, population increase due to immigration.
% of young and elderly nearly same.
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Denmark
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Why will CDR increase in Denmark’s future?
Elderly will begin dying off.
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Demographic Transition and
World Population Growth
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Status of Current World Growth
No countries in stage 1. Few countries in stage 4. Most countries in stage 2 and 3.
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Four-stages of Demographic Transition are characterized by two
breaks in the past1. Sudden drop in death rate due to technological innovations (everywhere).
2. Sudden drop in birth rate due to changing social customs (in a few countries).