augmented reality and 3d displays in europe
DESCRIPTION
A presentation on augmented reality by analyst Craig Cartier.TRANSCRIPT
Augmented Reality and 3D Displays in Europe –Gimmicks or Future of Mobile?
Craig Cartier, Research Analyst
ICTICT
August 30, 2011
Today’s Presenter: Craig Cartier
Functional Expertise
4 years experience in telecom market with 3 years operational expertise at wireless carrier. Particular expertise in:
- Product Management
- Partner Management & Platform Management
- Developing and implementing business strategy
- Business Development
Industry Expertise
� 4 years experience in Telecom industry with focus on Wireless Data technologies
- Mobile Music, Ringtones and Ringback tones
- Emerging technologies such as 3G and Augmented Reality
- Wireless Data Strategy
- Central/Eastern Europe Telecom market
What I bring to the Team
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Craig CartierTelecom Consultant
Frost & SullivanCentral/Eastern Europe
What I bring to the Team
� Direct telecom experience
� Strong analytical skills
� Unique blend of technical/business strategy background
� Relationships in the Telecom Industry
Career Highlights
Ran $100+ Million P&L in Digital Music
Developed multi-million dollar strategic partnership in mobile music management
Developed technical strategy for Network Operator business threats like Skype
Developed test software for Operator VoIP lab
Education
Bachelor of Science, Computer Engineering, Iowa State University,
Ames, Iowa, USA
More 3D films have been released in the last decade than the former four decades combined
3D Market: 3D Film Releases by Decade (World), 1900-2010
Num
ber
of
Rele
ases
3D Popularity is On the Rise
Gimmicky 3D
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Num
ber
of
Rele
ases
DecadeSource: 3D@Home Consortium
Gimmicky 3D killed the last boom…could it happen again?
Monocular (one eye) CuesMonocular (one eye) Cues
• Perspective
• Relative size
• Perspective
• Relative size
Binocular (two eye) CuesBinocular (two eye) Cues
What are binocular cues?
• Stereopsis
What are binocular cues?
• Stereopsis
3D Experience
There are Several Visual Cues that Contribute to 3D Perception
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• Relative size
• Lighting and Shading
• And many more
• Relative size
• Lighting and Shading
• And many more
• Stereopsis
• Convergence
• Stereopsis
• Convergence
3D Content
Box office smash or Gimmicky Flop?
VS.
Source: Walt Disney PicturesSource: 20th Century Fox
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$2.7 billion in box office receipts $39 million in box office receipts
Creating quality 3D content is a challenge. Customer-facing 3D companies (MNOs, device manufacturers) should partner with trusted content providers to give
users easy access to quality 3D.
Source: Walt Disney PicturesSource: 20th Century Fox
Parallax barrier• Benefits• Drawbacks• Examples
Lenticular lenses• Benefits
Autostereoscopic Display Technologies
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• Benefits• Drawbacks
Also: Directional backlight
The Nintendo 3DS, a 3D update to the Nintendo DS was released in Europe on 25 March. Initial sales have been below expectations, and prices have been cut from £269.99 to £130-£140.The Nintendo 3DS, a 3D update to the Nintendo DS was released in Europe on 25 March. Initial sales have been below expectations, and prices have been cut from £269.99 to £130-£140.
3D slide bar to adjust strength of 3D effect• Pre-recorded video
cannot be adjusted using slide bar; however, the 3D effect can be
Adjustable auto-stereoscopic parallax barrier 3D display
Partnerships with key industry participants to offer 3D content, which
Case Study: Nintendo 3DS
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Note: Nintendo competitor Sony will not pursue autostereoscopic 3D on “Vita” its next-generation portable device
effect can be completely switched on/off
• 3D effect is rendered in real-time
Dual external cameras for 3D image capture• Video capture is not
available, but may be in future devices
3D Games
offer 3D content, which can be passively downloaded over WiFi connection:• Sky 3D• Eurosport
Source: Nintendo
The LG Optimus 3D was launched in Europe in June, making it Europe’s first 3D device. Pricing is near £500The LG Optimus 3D was launched in Europe in June, making it Europe’s first 3D device. Pricing is near £500
Dual 5MP cameras for 3D video and image capture
Dual channel, dual core, dual
3D Implications
Surprisingly, LG was the only major manufacturer to make a 3D
Case Study: LG Optimus 3D
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Partnership with YouTube enables direct upload of captured 3D content to YouTube’s 3D channel.
Parallax barrier display technology
core, dual memory, for superior graphics processing, among other applications
major manufacturer to make a 3D device announcement at MWC.• Uptake of the Optimus 3D will
drive the long-term 3D strategy for the other participants in the game
Source: LG
Key Drivers: 3D
No Glasses required
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Customer Preference for 3D
Booming Industry in Other Mediums
Relatively Low Cost
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Range of Content Quality
Price Sensitive Market
Technical Restraints Lack of 3D Content
Key Restraints: 3D
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Source: Frost & Sullivan.
LGs recent struggles may have prompted its attention to 3D
50
100
150
200
250
Sm
art
Devic
e S
hip
men
ts (
Mil
lio
ns)
Smart Phone Shipments by Manufacturer 2010-2015 (Worldwide)
2010
2011
2012
Mobile Device Manufacturers – Smartphone Projections
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HTC and Samsung have taken a more conservative approach to 3D
0
50
Sm
art
Devic
e S
hip
men
ts (
Mil
lio
ns)
Device Manufacturer
2012
2013
2014
2015Source: Frost & Sullivan
Augmented Reality Overview
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Augmented Reality – Introduction
AR is the fusion of real and virtual information into
a single experience. This technology, while simply
defined, is behind some of the most interesting
new applications in the mobile space today.
AR is the fusion of real and virtual information into
a single experience. This technology, while simply
defined, is behind some of the most interesting
new applications in the mobile space today.
Source: Lego
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Source: Wikitude Source: Metaio
Source: Lego
Source: Google Images
Application Categories
• Marketing and Advertising• Billboards, Print Advertising, Other mediums like T-Shirts
• Navigation• Point of Interest (POI) search• Turn-by-turn navigation• Indoor navigation, offering directions in airports or industry
conferences.• Translation• Instruction
• Virtually show a finished product when it is still in assembly• Gaming
Source: Metaio
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Source: Wikitude
• Gaming• Tourism
• Wikipedia information overlayed on physical site• Museums have installed AR markers for patrons, which can
access more information about exhibits• And more Source: Wikitude
Source: MetaioSource: Metaio
Key Trend – AR Browsers
Benefits
• One-stop shop for AR-interested
Drawbacks
• Users don‘t want
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AR-interested customers
• Developers can build AR apps more efficiently
• AR browser can automatically port applications to many different devices
• Users don‘t want AR, they want solutions
• Discovery becomes challenging
• Limitations on functionality
Browser Profile – Layar
Largest AR Browser by usage, media exposure and investment. Based in Amsterdam• Funding
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Strengths: Largest consumer base and heavy investment enables its growth. Layar player can be easily integrated with other applications.
Weaknesses: Lack of image recognition technology, lack of customized solutions
• Funding• 1.5 million active users• 1,700 Layers (applications within AR browser)• Pre-loaded on Samsung and LG devices
“Layar Player” launched in January, 2011
“Layar Vision” introduced in August 2011
Browser Profile – Junaio (Brand of Metaio)
Junaio is the mobile brand of the German AR company Metaio
• Main asset is “Unifeye” Software Platform, enabling AR applications in mobile, PC, and custom applications such as kiosks.
• Image processing showcased in industrial applications
• Other applications include geo-positioning with LLA markers for indoor navigation
• Junaio boasts 1 million downloads of its AR browser
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Strengths: Image recognition technology integrated inAR browser platform enables wide range of applications and support for customized solutions
Weaknesses: Lags Layar in consumer exposure
• It differentiates itself as an AR R&D company versus a mobile applications company like Layar and Mobilizy (parent of Wikitude)
Source: Metaio
Case Study – Industrial Applications
• 3-D renderings of industrial parts are stored in JT format, which is a 3D imaging standard.
• There are technical barriers that prevent the entire
AR is currently in use by nearly every major auto manufacturer as a way to visualize completed components while they are still in the assembly line. However, nearly all current AR applications are
custom-made stationary models, and are not available for mobile.
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• There are technical barriers that prevent the entire library of JT files from being used on mobile phones.
• Heavy lifting required for this application to go mobile
Copyright 2010, Metaio
Case Study – Indoor Navigation
1: User scans LLA marker
Map accuracy is retained for about 30 seconds of movement after initial scan. User must then re-check in using another LLA
3:
Source: Metaio
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Application registers location using LLA marker and then can track phone movement using compass and accelerometer, showing POIs on screen.
2:
Source: Metaio
Content Provider/Brand
Application Developer
AR Browser App StoreDevice
ManufacturerMobile Network
Operator
Most of the developers or content providers adopt similar paths to reach their customers.
• Content providers, ranging from local merchants to global brands, can be anyone looking to develop AR
Value Chain Analysis – Consumer Applications
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• Content providers, ranging from local merchants to global brands, can be anyone looking to develop AR applications.
• AR browsers, such as Layar, are partnering with device manufacturers to be pre-installed on new devices• Layar announced it was preloaded on 1 out of 3 smartphones sold globally this year
• Some AR applications are sold as standalone products in application stores or as part of a wider application
• Companies are likely to continuously attempt to go around others farther up the value chain
Key Drivers Summary
Wow Factor
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Detailed Analytics Industry SupportApplicationWhite Space
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Unclear Value Add
Inaccuracy of Geo Location
Fragmented Developer Ecosystem
TechnicalLimitations
Key Restraints Summary
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Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Future state
AR is a fascinating new technology that holds great promise for
future development. Further developments in two associated
technologies could accelerate adoption of AR:
Eye displays:
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GPS accuracy
Source: Garmin
Source: NTT DoCoMo
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For Additional Information
Joanna Lewandowska
Corporate Communications
ICT
+48 22 390 41 46
Gustavo Cury
Sales Manager
ICT Europe, Israel, and Africa
+44 (0)20 7343 8310
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Craig Cartier
Research Analyst
ICT Europe
+48 22-390-4161
Adrian Drozd
Research Manager
ICT Europe
+44 (0) 1865 398 699