The Neuroscience Behind CreatingBetter Creative

DAVID POLTRACK

Chief Research Officer, CBS Corporation

President, CBS Vision

Campaign Performance Audit Components

Step 1: Test Your Message

Step 2: Maximize Your Weekly Reach

Step 3: Get the Most Out of “Recency”

Step 4: Precisely Target Potential Customers

Step 5: Consider Context

3

Campaign Performance Audit Components

Step 1: Test Your Message

Step 2: Maximize Your Weekly Reach

Step 3: Get the Most Out of “Recency”

Step 4: Precisely Target Potential Customers

Step 5: Consider Context

The Neuroscience Behind Creating Better Creative

Optimize creative to maximize itspotential for in-market ROI

Dr. Carl MarciChief Neuroscientist/EVP

Nielsen Consumer Neuroscience

Leslie WoodChief Research Officer

Nielsen Catalina Solutions

David PoltrackChief Research Officer & President

CBS Vision

June 13, 2016

Copyright © 2016 Nielsen Catalina Solutions 6

Many Successful Collaborations

Goal:

Build Solutions

that Improve

Advertising

Effectiveness

Campaign Performance Audit

Step 1: Test Your Message

Step 2: Maximize Your Weekly Reach

Step 3: Get the Most Out of “Recency”

Step 4: Precisely Target Potential Customers

Step 5: Consider Context

Campaign Performance Audit

Step 1: Test Your Message

Step 2: Maximize Your Weekly Reach

Step 3: Get the Most Out of “Recency”

Step 4: Precisely Target Potential Customers

Step 5: Consider Context

How Do You Create Effective Advertising?Know your “Rights”

MEDIA

Reach the Right:

• People

• Time

• Frequency

• Context

SUCCESS

Use the Right Creative:

• Message

• Story

• Music

• Character

• Etc.

Build Sales

& Brand

CREATIVE

Why Focus On Creative?

We know that

Creative is difficult to measure,

with many points of view,

methods and measures

Creative has

multiplicative

effect on ROI

Next

Breakthrough

ARF Ground Truth• Extensive study of >50

neuroscience studies

across the industry

Conclusion: Guidance on

how marketers can maximize

results in fragmented media

landscape

ARF

Neurostandards 1.0• Outside review with

academic experts on new

technologies

• 8 neuro research

suppliers, 15 sponsors,

studied 9 TV ads

Conclusion: Pinpointing on

second-by-second basis

was a strength, but more

work was needed

History of Neuroscience Validation

ARF

Neurostandards 2.0• First attempt at validation

of neuro & in-market

results

• 1 supplier (Temple Univ)

Conclusion: Neuro adds

value to self-report as a

complement

2010-2011 2015/162012 20162013

Ground-breaking Collaboration to Uncover What Makes Creative Successful

Unprecedented scale and scope

Over 900 participants

Nearly 60 CPG ads

Nearly 20 categories

ALL key neuroscience tools

Our Goals:

To understand how neuroscience measures

CORRELATE to IN-MARKET SALES?

What neuroscience tool(s) are best

INDICATORS?

How can we use FINDINGS to produce

better creative?

Breakthrough Approach

• Study conducted November 2015 – April 2016

EEG

Biometrics

Facial Coding

Eye Tracking

IN-MARKET SALESNEUROSCIENCE MEASURES

Self-Report

Neuroscience – The Full Toolbox

Overall level of

emotional

engagement, the

most and least

engaging moments.

CORE

BIOMETRICS

Discrete facially

expressed emotions,

such as surprise,

confusion, joy and

sadness.

FACIAL

CODING

Pinpoint visual

attention to content,

including specific

areas that attract the

most and least

attention.

EYE

TRACKINGEEG

Multiple sensors across

key brain regions to derive

key measures of

emotional motivation,

memory activation and

attention shifting.

PREDICTIVE

DIAGNOSTIC

EEG Provides Second-by-second DiagnosticsE

EG

Eff

ective

ne

ss

Highly

Engaged

Seconds

10.0

5.0

0.0

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Maximum Point of Engagement

Bio

me

tric

Em

otio

n

Time

Percent Time Highly

Engaged

Biometrics Provides Depth of Engagement

Facial Coding Reveals Expressed Emotion

Time

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

:00 :10 :20 :30

Neutral NeutralNeutralNeutral

Positive Expressed

Emotion (Joy, smiles)

ExpressedSurprise

Negative Expressed Emotion

(Anger, fear, sadness, disgust)

BIG Questions?

How do you measure INCREMENTAL SALES and LINK to Neuromeasures?

How do you ISOLATEthe effect of the CREATIVE from the media targeting?

Nielsen Catalina Connects the MEDIA People Consume With the Products they BUY

Exposure DataNielsen Media Data

Buy DataCatalina Frequent

Shopper Card Data

Anonymous

Single Source Households

Mobile80 MM HH

Radio29K HH

Set Top Box Data 4.3 MM HH

Digital100 MM HH

Client Proprietary Print50 MM HH

• Nielsen Homescan

All-Outlet Data

• Client Proprietary

Sales Data

90 MM HH

Decompose Media & Creative Effectiveness by Cell Using Segmentation Framework

New

Category

Buyers

New

Brand

Buyers

Brand Buyers

Non-Loyal Switcher Loyals

Light

Category

Buyers

Medium

Category

Buyers

Heavy

Category

Buyers

Metric 1: Media effectivenessTargeting: What is the coverage [reach] of purchases for each sub-segment?

Metric 2:Creative effectivenessSales Response: What’s the incremental sales lift per exposed purchase for each?

New

Category

Buyers

New

Brand

Buyers

Brand Buyers

Non-

Loyal Switcher Loyal

Light

Category

Buyers

21%

23% 27% 24% 22%

Medium

Category

Buyers24% 23% 23% 21%

Heavy

Category

Buyers24% 24% 23% 24%

New

Category

Buyers

New

Brand

Buyers

Brand Buyers

Non-

Loyal Switcher Loyal

Light

Category

Buyers

$0.20

$0.14 $0.26 $0.52 $1.31

Medium

Category

Buyers$0.18 $0.31 $0.73 $1.74

Heavy

Category

Buyers$0.22 $0.38 $0.82 $2.16

Metric 1: Coverage of Purchases

Measure of Media Delivery Effectiveness

Metric 2: Sales Lift per Exposed Category Purchases

Measure of Creative Effectiveness

Creative Skews Shows Effectiveness by SegmentThe lift within each segment was reweighted to equal the

%population to remove the media delivery variable

Isolating the Media Delivery and Creative Effectiveness

Projecting Incremental Sales Lift Using Purchase-Driven Planning Methodology

For each cell, multiply Coverage of Purchases X sales

response, for each cell – then total it for all 13 cells

= =X$ per Exposed

Category Purchase

Estimated

Incremental $

X =Weekly

Sales

Weekly

Reach

Covered

Purchases

Grand Total

Estimated

Dollar Lift

New

Category

Buyers

New

Brand

Buyers

Brand Buyers

Non-

Loyal Switcher Loyal

Light

Category

Buyers

$0.13

$0.25 $0.55 $0.28 $1.41

Medium

Category

Buyers$0.11 $0.21 $0.27 $0.28

Heavy

Category

Buyers$0.16 $0.43 $0.24 $0.79

New

Category

Buyers

New

Brand

Buyers

Brand Buyers

Non-

Loyal Switcher Loyal

Light

Category

Buyers

$0.01

$0.00 $0.03 $0.02 $0.15

Medium

Category

Buyers$0.00 $0.02 $0.00 $0.02

Heavy

Category

Buyers$0.00 $0.01 $0.02 $0.03

Metric 2: Sales Lift per Exposed Category

Purchases Measure of Creative Effectiveness

Metric 2: Sales Lift per Exposed Category Purchases

Measure of Creative Effectiveness

Comparing Outcomes:Positive Impact When You Get Creative Right

Total Incremental Sales: $ 16 Total Incremental Sales: $ 288

Sister brands (similar budget & reach):

Breakthrough Technique Made Study Possible:Measuring Sales Influenced by Advertising

Cognitive AdVantics: Advanced Machine Learning does the Heavy Lifting

Accounts only for Purchases

Influenced by Adverting

Solves for targeting bias

Provides a Single

Answer

Advanced Machine Learning

Correlating Neuroscience to Sales• Do Neuroscience Measures Predict Accurately?

CREATIVE

MEDIA

IN-MARKET SALESNEUROSCIENCE MEASURES

EEG

Biometrics

Facial Coding

Eye Tracking

Self-Report

RESULTS

All Tools Predict Sales to Some Degree

• * Preliminary analyses, Z-scaled within category to control for category effects

BIOMETRICSFACIAL CODING EEG

Range of R2 =

9 to 12%

Range of R2 =

22 to 29%

Range of R2 =

47 to 62%

Results Vary by Model, but Not that Much

• * Preliminary analyses

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FAC Biometrics EEG Combined

Comparison of Stats Models for FAC, Biometrics, EEG & Combined

Z-Scaled (N=55) Linear Residual (N=59) Quadratic Residual (N=59)

Linear Residual (N=55) Quadratic Residual (N=55)

9%

27%

62%

77%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

FAC Biometrics EEG Combined

R-Squared for Neuro Measure to Sales Lift*

However, Combination Provides Highest Level of Prediction

Copyright © 2016 Nielsen Catalina Solutions 31

Mars: M&M Eating in Bed

Bio

metr

ic E

ngagem

ent

EEG Engagement

Biometric Engagement

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

EE

G E

ng

ag

em

en

t

Time (in seconds)

Mars: M&M Eating in Bed

3 Major Findings

Neuroscience can

IMPROVE CREATIVE

by providing actionable,

second-by-second

insights

COMBINING

neuroscience tools

best predicts sales

Each neuroscience

measure of creative

DOES predict

in-market sales to

some degree

What This Means for the Industry

Breakthrough integrated approach to

CREATIVE DEVELOPMENT offers new solution

for testing ads and retaining great ideas

Neuroscience tools identify areas of optimization

before launch with PINPOINT ACCURACY

Establishes the importance of the right

COMBINATION OF NEUROSCIENCE tools to

better predict outcomes in market

Increase SALES AND IMPROVE ROI with a better

creative process informed by neuroscience

Thank you!

ARF2016AM

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APPENDIX

What is Purchase-Driven Planning?

And how do you use it to measure the incremental sales influenced by advertising?

Purchase-Driven Planning is:

• New way to understand how

media works

• Better way to plan and

compare alternatives before

they run

• New way to understand and

isolate the impact of creative

effectiveness from the target

audience delivery

Put INCREMENTAL SALES

at the center of your goals

$

Exposed

Not-Exposed

Uses Coverage of Purchase vs. Reach of Households

Exposed to TV & Digital7-Day Exposure Interval

Projecting Incremental Sales Lift Using Purchase-Driven Planning Methodology:

For each cell, multiply Coverage of Purchases X sales

response, for each cell – then total it for all 13 cells

= =X$ per Exposed

Category Purchase

Estimated

Incremental $

X =Weekly

Sales

Weekly

Reach

Covered

Purchases

Grand Total

Estimated

Dollar Lift

X =

= =

1.

X 4. 5.$ per Exposed

Category Purchase

Estimated

Incremental $

Weekly Sales Weekly Reach Covered Purchases2. 3.

Grand Total

Estimated

Dollar Lift

$6,812.13

Reminder: Purchase-Driven Planning – allows us to Estimate Coverage of Purchase, Then Estimate ROI

What is Cognitive AdVantics?

Advanced Machine Learning for Sales Attribution

Cognitive AdVantics

• Advanced Machine Learning for Measuring the Sales Influenced by Advertising

Accounts only for Purchases

Influenced by Adverting

Solves for targeting bias

Provides a Single

Answer

Advanced Machine Learning

1. Exposure ModelThe advertiser may have made a conscious

decision to expose only certain types of households,

based upon demographics and purchase history

2. Model Purchase InfluenceOn a trip, a household chose whether or not to buy

the brand; this decision was both influenced by the

household's purchase history + demographics, and

the household's exposure or non-exposure to the ad

Cognitive Analytics Solves for Targeting Bias

Sales Lift Accounting

For Targeting

Relationship

Universe+ Demographics

+ Purchase History

+ Media Consumed

+ Timing of Visit

+ Geolocation

Cognitive AdVantics: Ensemble Model Provides a Single Answer

Purchase

Behavior

Exposure

Timing of Visit

Brand Purchase

Media

Consumption

Category

Purchase

Location

Demographics

MODEL D

MODEL B

MODEL C

MODEL E

MODEL F

MODEL G

MODEL A