attribution modeling - pkkannan - january 31-2014 · p. k. kannan ralph j. tyser professor of...
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Attribution ModelingP. K. Kannan
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Click on Email Promotion Link
Click on TripAdvisor Link
No conversion No conversion Converts
Day 1 Day 8
Click on Paid Search Link
Day 1
Example: a multi‐touch path to purchase
Which marketing campaign should get credit for the conversion?
How exactly do we value each touch point?
Firm.com Firm.com Firm.com
Firm.com
O i & P idOrganic & Paid Search
Referral
Direct(by typing in URL)
E‐Mail
Display
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Marketing “Channels”
Key Questions
• What is the incremental impact of each marketing channel in drawing in visits and purchases?
Do we spend too much on Google?
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Conversions
Paid Search40%Direct
20%
Referral20%
Display20%
E‐mail0%
Customer 1 Paid Search
Paid Search
Direct
Referral
Display
Customer 2
Customer 3
Customer 4
Customer 5
E‐mail
Customer 6
Customer 7
7‐day average Metric Last‐click Metric
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Customer 1 Paid SearchE‐mail
Customer 7
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Carryover
Email Display Paid SearchDisplay
Use Carryover and Spillover to Capture the Dynamics in the Ad Information
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Spillover
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ChannelsConsidered
Search, Direct, and E‐mail
Search Direct E‐MailVisit ThroughChannels
CarryoverEffects
Spillover Effects
Costs
PurchaseAt Website
Benefits Benefits
Costs
Overall attractiveness of making a purchase
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Search, Referral, Direct, E‐mail, and Display Available Channels
Modeling the Attribution Problem
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– Q customer‐initiated channels: • organic search, paid search, referral, and direct
– (J‐Q) firm‐initiated channels: • email and display
– The utility of considering channel q by customer i
• Ri: customer‐specific variables, such as loyalty tiers.
– The consideration set of customer i
•
The Consideration Stage:‐ Possible channels to reach the website
1( , , ) ~ (0, )Ti iQ QN
*iq i iq iqc R
An example with J=3Pi(channel 1)+ Pi (channel 2)+ Pi (channel 3) + Pi (channel 1&2)+ Pi (channel 1&3) + Pi (channel 2&3) + Pi (channel 1&2&3)=1
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1( )Ti i iJC c c
De Los Santos, Hortacsu, and Wildenbeest 2012; van Nierop et al. 2010
• The utility for customer i to visit channel j on occasion n
– Inclusive value:
– Cost of Visiting:
• The utility for customer i to purchase in channel j on occation n
– Informational Stock:
,1
1, ,JJ
ijn ij j k ikn ijnk
W G j
Indicator of customer i visit channel k on occation h.
, , 10
, , 10
exp( )
1 exp( )
J
j ijn j k ik nk
ijn J
j ijn j k ik nk
T LS
T L
0, 1, ,Jijn ij ijn j ijn ijnU I S j
The Visit and Purchase Stage:
Cumulative time spent on the firm’s website
Most recently visited channel
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log 1 exp( / )ijn ijnI W
1( )
1
(1 ) ikn ikh
nt t
ikn ikh kh
G d
(1‐ Decay Rate)
Ansari, Mela, and Neslin 2008; Erdem and Keane 1996; Moorthy, Ratchford, and Talukdar 1997; Montgomery et al. 2004; Seiler 2013
Data and Estimation
• Individual‐level path to purchase data from an international hotel chain
June‐August, 2011
Integrated data feeds
Search and display; referral and direct; and e‐mail
• Estimation: MCMC in R
GoogleDoubleClick
AdobeSite Catalyst
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Data and Estimation
• Individual‐level path to purchase data from an international hotel chain
June‐August, 2011
Integrated data feeds
Search and display; referral and direct; and e‐mail
• Estimation: MCMC in R
GoogleDoubleClick
AdobeSite Catalyst
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Results – Consideration Stage
Notes: Bold indicates that the 95% posterior interval excludes zero.
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Results – Visit Stage
Carryover
Spillover
Results – Purchase Stage
Notes: Bold indicates that the 95% posterior interval excludes zero.
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Carryover
Spillover
Channel Observed
Direct 347
Organic Search 285
Referral 201
E‐Mail 138
Paid Search 114
Display 43
Total 1128
Compare Alternative Attribution Methods
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Last‐Touch
31%
25%
18%
12%
10%
4%
100%
Proposed Model
28%
16%
24%
19%
6%
7%
100%
Take‐away from Example A 17
• Significant carryover and spillover effects at both visit
and purchase stages.
• Incremental impact of channels.
For the focal firm:
Spend less on paid search.
Spend more on referral, e‐mail and display.
Measurement framework.
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Bid on keywords at time (t+1): Bid1=$0; Bid2=$1.2; Bid3=$1.5
Revenues based on first‐touch attr.:R(K1)=$10; R(K2)=$10; R(K3)=$0
Bid on keywords at time (t+1): Bid1=$1.6; Bid2=$1.3; Bid3=$0
Firm allocates budget
Search engine ranks the bidders for each keyword
Firm bids on keywords at time t: Bid(K1)=$1; Bid(K2)=$1; Bid(K3)=$1
Customer clicks on keywords: Customer 1: K1 K2 K3 K3 $10Customer 2: K2 K2 $10Customer 3: K2 K2 K3 K1 $0
Revenues based on last‐touch attr.:R(K1)=$0; R(K2)=$10; R(K3)=$10
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Attribution and Resource Allocation in Search Advertising
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• New account• WOM• Consideration• Transaction
Take‐away from Example B
• Which attribution scheme (first‐click or last‐click) is better in generating revenues?
• What is the impact of attribution scheme on different marketing responses?
Last Touch First TouchBroad Keywords
Specific Keywords
Last Touch First TouchNew Customer
WOM GenerationConsiderationPurchase
Challenges in implementation
• Attribution model only as good as the path data– How do you integrate all customer online touchpoint data?
– Incomplete data – cookie deletion– How about online channels and offline channels – TV, for example?
– Direct to Physicians, Direct to Consumers– Shopping across mobile and online channels
Challenges
• What I see in attribution starts with my marketing mix allocation and targeting– How do I disentangle what is due to my actions versus measurement issues?
$ $Budget Set by MgmtMonthly/Quarterly
$ $
Consumers’ PurchaseFunnel
Budget Set by MgmtMonthly/Quarterly
Modeling Approaches
1. Hidden Markov Models2. Nested Logit Model3. Generalized Poisson4. VAR Models5. Machine Learning
$ $Budget Set by Mgmt Daily
Challenges• How do I incorporate attribution results into my media mix allocation?– How do I target customers?– Compatibility of data at different granularity– Building brand versus revenue generation– Challenge of Big Data
Questions?
• Setting the stage for discussion on marketing mix allocation
Contact Info
P. K. KannanRalph J. Tyser Professor of Marketing Science
Chair, Department of MarketingSmith School of BusinessUniversity of MarylandCollege Park, MD 20742
[email protected]: 301‐405‐2188