attitudes towards integration with the european union
DESCRIPTION
ATTITUDES TOWARDS INTEGRATION WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION. PRESENTATION OF QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH MARCH, 2003. CONTENTS. RESEARCH DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES. INTEREST IN EUROPEAN INTEGRATION PROCESS. VIEWS ON OUTLOOK FOR FARMING AND BUSINESS. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
ATTITUDES TOWARDS INTEGRATION WITH ATTITUDES TOWARDS INTEGRATION WITH THE EUROPEAN UNIONTHE EUROPEAN UNION
PRESENTATION OF QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE PRESENTATION OF QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE RESEARCHRESEARCH
MARCH, 2003MARCH, 2003
2
RESEARCH DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVESRESEARCH DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES
CONTENTSCONTENTS
GAINS AND LOSSES IN EUROPEAN INTEGRATION GAINS AND LOSSES IN EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
VIEWS ON OUTLOOK FOR FARMING AND BUSINESS VIEWS ON OUTLOOK FOR FARMING AND BUSINESS
INTEREST IN EUROPEAN INTEGRATION PROCESS INTEREST IN EUROPEAN INTEGRATION PROCESS
INFORMATION NEEDSINFORMATION NEEDS
REFERENDUMREFERENDUM
WHAT WILL CHANGE AFTER ADHERENCE?WHAT WILL CHANGE AFTER ADHERENCE?
3
RESEARCH DESCRIPTION AND RESEARCH DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES
4
RESEARCH DESCRIPTION AND RESEARCH DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES
In January and February 2003 the Pentor Institute, commissioned by European Integration Office, carried out a qualitative and quantitative research project on public opinion about the European Union.
5
RESEARCH DESCRIPTION AND RESEARCH DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES
The qualitative study covered a sample of farmers and entrepreneurs, and aimed to defined:
state of knowledge about the EU, hope and perceived benefits of Poland joining EU structures, perceived threats and obstacles.
The quantitative research part was fielded on a representative The quantitative research part was fielded on a representative sample of the general public, and aimed to identify:sample of the general public, and aimed to identify:
public acceptance of views expressed by farmers and entrepreneurs,public acceptance of views expressed by farmers and entrepreneurs, public interest in integration issues,public interest in integration issues, perceptions of loses and befits from integration. perceptions of loses and befits from integration.
6
Qualitative ResearchQualitative Research
The study was effected by Focused Group Interviews. Overall 6 FGI were held on 17 -22.01.2003.
FARMERSGroup 1: 18.01.2003
farm up to 5 ha
Biłgoraj woj. Lubelskie
Group 2: 21.01.2003
farm 10 - 20 ha
Ostrów Mazowiecka
woj. Mazowieckie
Group 3: 22.01.2003
farm 20 - 50 ha
Śrem, Wielkopolska
7
Qualitative Research Qualitative Research
MSPGroup 4: 17.01.2003
small firms, under 10 employees
Lublin
Group 5: 22.01.2003
small/medium firms 10 - 50 employees
Poznań
Group 6: 21.01.2003
medium/larger firms 50 – 250 employees
Katowice
8
Quantitative ResearchQuantitative Research
The Quantitative Research was carried out on 22-23 February 2003The Quantitative Research was carried out on 22-23 February 2003
sample representative for Poland over 15 year of age,sample representative for Poland over 15 year of age, N = 1000.N = 1000.
Face to face interviews.Face to face interviews.
Maximum statistical error for such sample size (1000) is 3,2% at 95% confidence interval.
9
INTEREST IN EUROPEAN INTEGRATION INTEREST IN EUROPEAN INTEGRATION PROCESSPROCESS
10
INTEREST IN INTEGRATIONINTEREST IN INTEGRATIONQualitative Research Qualitative Research
Entrepreneurs and managers expressed the view, that Poland’s entry to the EU will be a fact of large importance for Polish firms and were greatly interested in the issue.
TV shows bombastic propaganda, farmers in Spain dozing under olive trees, and where are we? What sense does it make?
[farmer 10-20 ha, Mazowieckie]
Village dwellers show limited interest in the integration process and consider the enthusiasm shown by city folk and politicians to be unfounded.
11
INTEREST IN INTEGRATIONINTEREST IN INTEGRATION Quantitative Research Quantitative Research
The public showed moderate interest in the integration process.
One one third rated this issue as very important or important.
Different attitudes amongst farmers and managers is well illustrated by qualitative research.
Farmers and villagers, compared to the general public, rate European integration issues as relatively less important,
Managers and private entrepreneurs attach much higher
importance to it.
12
6,25,7
6,4 5,5
7,5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
total village dwellers largest cities farmers enterpreneurs
very important
not at all important
On a scale from 1 to 10 please tell me how important is Poland’s On a scale from 1 to 10 please tell me how important is Poland’s integration with the EU for you personally? integration with the EU for you personally?
Average ratingAverage rating
N=1000
13
INTEREST IN INTEGRATIONINTEREST IN INTEGRATION
When studying interest in integration we asked the respondents how often do they happen to:
talk about integration, 24%
read about it, 23%
follow this issue on TV and radio, 42%
take part in meetings. 1%
the results confirm the thesis, that in early 2003 interest in integration issues is moderate.
2-3 RAZY W TYGODNIU I CZĘŚCIEJ
14
1%
42%
23%
24%
24%
25%
29%
18%
26%
26%
81%
10%
19%
13%
8%
6%
7%
7%
2% 8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
intensive (2-3 times a week) regularly (once a week/fortnight) occasionally never DK
How often do you ...?How often do you ...?
N=1000
15
INTEREST IN INTEGRATION - FARMERS AND INTEREST IN INTEGRATION - FARMERS AND MANAGERSMANAGERS
managers: compared to the rest of the public, more often:
talk about the EU,
read about, and
watch and listen to programs about it.
Farmers:
have an above average contact with the EU through the radio and TV,
are much less likely to read about in the press or information materials.
16
74%
31%
56%
78%
84%
74%
66%
48%
53%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
watch TV/listen to radio programs about integration
read press articles/leaflets/information materials aboutintegration
talk with family/ friends about integration
farmers managers total
Intensive and regular interest in integration problemsIntensive and regular interest in integration problems
N=1000
17
BUSINESS OUTLOOK - FARMERS AND ENTREPRENEURSBUSINESS OUTLOOK - FARMERS AND ENTREPRENEURS
(Qualitative Research) (Qualitative Research)
18
BUSINESS OUTLOOK - FARMERSBUSINESS OUTLOOK - FARMERS
Regardless of segment respondents agreed, that Polish agriculture is going through difficult times.
The main problem of agriculture is impossibility of rational planning .
This state of the affairs, in farmers’ eyes, is the result of years of neglect of the Polish Government, which has never developed any agricultural policy and production planning methods.
Today, as stated in all segments, farming in unprofitable, does not support farmers nor give them means to expand their farms.
Low profitability is especially pronounced in small farms under 5 ha.
It’s better to keep to pensioners on the farm than 1000 pigs.
19
BUSINESS OUTLOOK - FARMERSBUSINESS OUTLOOK - FARMERS
Farmers emphasised, that they cannot get loans.
Some say that bank employees are discriminate against farmers, and immediately say “no” when they hear that the loan taker would be a farmer.
I want to buy a straw press and called the store in Kalinowice and they told me, that they start at 9,5000 and I can buy it with payment stretched out to 10 years, but to buy it, I’d have to have minimum 800 zł income, and where am I to get it?
[farmers up to 5 ha, Lubelskie]
20
POLISH AGRICULTURE - STRENGTHSPOLISH AGRICULTURE - STRENGTHS
lower usage of fertilisers and herbicides, as well as low popularity of preservatives and colorants makes Polish produce - in farmers eyes:
much more natural
healthier
tastier than comparable EU products.
21
POLISH AGRICULTURE - STRENGTHSPOLISH AGRICULTURE - STRENGTHS
We have that love for the land, the farmer will not buy bread for himself, but he will feed the horse. There is nothing like that in the West, we don’t have economics, we have - for lack of better word - love.
I can see that it doesn't pay, but my heart is in that farm, it would not be easy for me to give it up.
My father loves it so much that instead of resting in retirement, he grabs the buckets and rushes to work, to take a look at the pigs feeding, he knows which one has a spot behind the ear. They are afraid of that, the West, of this attachment, of this love to the land.
[farmer 10-20 ha, Mazowieckie]
22
BUSINESS OUTLOOK - ENTREPRENEURSBUSINESS OUTLOOK - ENTREPRENEURS
Business outlook among entrepreneurs and managers was mostly negative.
The dimmest view was held by small entrepreneurs and companies operating exclusively on the domestic market, without any contacts with foreign partners.
Medium and lager firms were slightly more upbeat, especially exporters and managers of local branches of firms with international scale of operations.
23
BUSINESS OUTLOOK - BUSINESS OUTLOOK - ENTREPRENEURSENTREPRENEURS
the largest problems experienced by entrepreneurs are:
illegal competition,
low demand for goods and services,
low liquidity
low availability of investment loans.
24
BUSINESS OUTLOOK - BUSINESS OUTLOOK - ENETRPRENEOURSENETRPRENEOURS
Entrepreneurs see the legal framework as not being favourable for running a business.
The problems most often mentioned in all groups were :
high tax and ZUS rates,
complicated legal language,
lack of published materials with unequivocal interpretation of laws and regulations.
The very fixed costs, e.g. ZUS, are a large burden. To make ends meet you really have to slave away, as top cover the fixed charges, and if you employ people,e, than the cost is even higher.
[Lublin]
25
BUSINESS OUTLOOK BUSINESS OUTLOOK
Dramatically badDramatically bad Bad Bad
Very badVery bad Rather badRather bad
SMALL
MEDIUM/ SMALL
MEDIUM/ LARGE
FARMERSFARMERS MSPMSPSIZE
26
ADAPTATIONADAPTATION
no action to adaptno action to adapt
Improving product Improving product quality quality
new market acquisition new market acquisition buying new machines, buying new machines,
toolstools
Modernisation of Modernisation of barns and pigstiesbarns and pigsties
modern raising modern raising methodsmethods
quality normsquality norms „„the Union is the Union is
imposing very strict imposing very strict regulations on regulations on Poland”Poland”
ISO applicationsISO applications gaining certificates and gaining certificates and
improving improving qualificationsqualifications
training stafftraining staff expanding product expanding product
portfolioportfolio
SMALL
MEDIUM/ SMALL
MEDIUM/ LARGE
FARMERSFARMERS MSPMSP
SMALL
MEDIUM/ SMALL
MEDIUM/ LARGE
SIZE
27
GAINS AND LOSSES INVOLVED WITH EUROPEAN GAINS AND LOSSES INVOLVED WITH EUROPEAN INTEGRATIONINTEGRATION
28
GAINS AND LOSSES - FARMERS GAINS AND LOSSES - FARMERS (QUALITATIVE RESEARCH)(QUALITATIVE RESEARCH)
Farmers expect to lose out due to integration, and that they will be in economic dire straits.
We have no benefits from the Union, as we will be absorbed, buried completely .
[farmers up to 5 ha, Lubelskie]
Nobody cares what will happen to the farmer, his family, his means of support.
[farmers 21 ha and more, Wielkopolska]
TV shows bombastic propaganda, farmers in Spain dozing under olive trees, and where are we? What sense does it make?
[farmer 10-20 ha, Mazowieckie]
29
GAINS AND LOSSES - ENTREPRENEURS GAINS AND LOSSES - ENTREPRENEURS (QUALITATIVE RESEARCH)(QUALITATIVE RESEARCH)
Entrepreneurs have both hope and fears connected with EU access.
Fears are found mostly amongst small firms, family businesses,
although these are also felt by larger entrepreneurs.
I believe that the EU will make something happen, that something will start moving, that people will have more money. When they'll have more money, that will surely change things around and not only in my trade,but all over the place.
When I look at the EU I see some clarity there, some clearer rules, whereas in Poland we swim in murky waters.
30
LOSSES DUE TO ADHERENCE- Qualitative ResearchLOSSES DUE TO ADHERENCE- Qualitative Research
weakened position on weakened position on local marketlocal market
competition backed by competition backed by large capitallarge capital
Poles being forced out Poles being forced out off the marketsoff the markets
lowered incomelowered income higher unemploymenthigher unemployment higher priceshigher prices higher cost of livinghigher cost of living
smaller subsidies to smaller subsidies to farming farming
closures of many farmsclosures of many farms expansion of strong expansion of strong
foreign firmsforeign firms Speculation in farmlandSpeculation in farmland no interest in farmers no interest in farmers
shown by Governmentshown by Government foreign cultural patterns foreign cultural patterns
seeping in (liberalism)seeping in (liberalism)
FARMERSFARMERS MSPMSP
SMALL
MEDIUM/ SMALL
MEDIUM/ LARGE
SIZE
31
GAINS DUE TO ADHERENCE- Qualitative ResearchGAINS DUE TO ADHERENCE- Qualitative Research
unification and simplification of Law
introduction of clear rules for economic life
simple loan system higher availability of loans economic revival drop in unemployment improved quality of goods and
services higher living standard freedom of travel
Production: fruit vegetables agrotourism
FARMERSFARMERS MSPMSP
alliances, producer groups, large firms
Production: milk cattle eco-food
SMALL
MEDIUM/ SMALL
MEDIUM/ LARGE
SIZE
32
Views on the impact for the Country is very strongly correlated with the expected effects for oneself.
GAINS AND LOSSES - FROM NATIONAL AND GAINS AND LOSSES - FROM NATIONAL AND PERSONAL VIEWPOINTPERSONAL VIEWPOINT(Quantitative Research) (Quantitative Research)
33
Overall, will EU membership bringOverall, will EU membership bring...?...?
19%
38%
24%
19%
40%
22%
20%
18%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
DK/ hard to say
more loses
loses and gains arebalanced
more gains
from personal viewpoint from national viewpoint
N=1000
34
Quantitative Research confirmed the findings and conclusions from the FGI.
Farmers and city dwellers (in relation to average ratings):
were more pessimistic as to the effects of integration, both from personal and national viewpoint.
Their ratings tended to be extreme as concerns effects of integration to themselves.
managers were more positive as to the effects of integration for the sate of the Country.
GAINS AND LOSSES - FROM NATIONAL AND GAINS AND LOSSES - FROM NATIONAL AND PERSONAL VIEWPOINTPERSONAL VIEWPOINT(Quantitative Research) (Quantitative Research)
35
3,33
3,42,8 3,3
1
2
3
4
5
total countryside largest cities farmers managers
Overall, will EU membership bring more benefits or loss to you personally?Overall, will EU membership bring more benefits or loss to you personally? - average rating - - average rating -
Much more gains than losses
Much more losses than gains
N=1000
36
3,3 3,1 3,3 33,5
1
2
3
4
5
total countryside largest cities farmers managers
Overall, will EU membership bring more benefits or loss to Poland as a whole?- average rating -
Much more gains than losses
Much more losses than gains
N=1000
37
Poles well understand the grounds for farmers’ and managers’ fears. The accurately mentioned the causes which these had given on the qualitative stage.
Higher consistency was observed as concerns managers.
Farmers:
were more drastic about their plight than the general public, and accentuated threats much more often,
were less likely to noticed their “faults”.
GAINS AND LOSSES - ATTITUDE TOWARDS FEARS - GAINS AND LOSSES - ATTITUDE TOWARDS FEARS - FARMERS AND MANAGERS FARMERS AND MANAGERS
38
45%
45%
71%
67%
81%
75%
44%
50%
55%
65%
73%
76%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
low qualifications of entrepreneurs
fears that foreign banks operating in Poland will notgive them loans
lack of adequate information tailored to entrepreneurneeds
fears that joining the EU will cause a recession andwill bring about bancruptcy
lack of faith in the Polish State prtecting Polish firmsfrom dishinest competition from stronger foreign
firms
fears that they will cope against competition fromfireign firms
managers total
What makes Polish businessmen be wary of the EU?What makes Polish businessmen be wary of the EU?
N=1000
39
12%
23%
40%
86%
76%
77%
83%
82%
24%
31%
46%
65%
65%
68%
73%
73%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
typical peasant cunning
the custom to whine
low qualifications
lack of faith that the Government will not cheat them
inadequate scope of offered help
lack of adequate information tailored to farmer needs
lack of balance in subsidies, much lower than in EU
very bad time for agriculture at present
farmers total
What makes Polish farmers be wary of the EU?What makes Polish farmers be wary of the EU?
N=1000
40
GAINS AND LOSSES - WHO LOSES WHO GAINSGAINS AND LOSSES - WHO LOSES WHO GAINS
Public view of effects of integration
Gain young people,
educated,
enterprising,
political elite
Lose older folks,
uneducated,
struggling in market economy conditions
41
44%
46%
46%
54%
54%
59%
61%
65%
66%
73%
76%
78%
29%
25%
19%
31%
17%
9%
10%
9%
18%
8%
10%
8%
26%
29%
35%
15%
29%
32%
28%
26%
16%
18%
14%
15%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
employees of Polish private firms
unemployed
teachers
owners of market producing farms
nurses
free professions
state and local administration officials
doctors
owners of huge farms
employees of foreign firms
young people
polititians
gain lose no change
Who will gain and who will lose from Poland’s joining the Who will gain and who will lose from Poland’s joining the EU?EU?
N=1000
42
12%
20%
23%
26%
27%
35%
65%
61%
34%
48%
49%
33%
23%
20%
43%
26%
23%
32%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
small shop owners
owners of small andfamily (non-market)
farms
the retired andpensioned
farmer-workers
owners of smallproduction andservice firms
state companyemployees
gain lose no change
Who will gain and who will lose from Poland’s joining the Who will gain and who will lose from Poland’s joining the EU?EU?
N=1000
43
WHAT WILL CHANGE AFTER ADHESION ?WHAT WILL CHANGE AFTER ADHESION ?
44
WHAT WILL CHANGE IN YOUR PERSONAL WHAT WILL CHANGE IN YOUR PERSONAL SITUATION?SITUATION?
Half of the population expects EU membership to affect their lives.
More than half do not expect any positive nor negative changes in :
satisfaction with life,
scope for personal development,
material situation,
“toughness” of job,
highest hopes: scope for personal development
highest fears: heavier work burden
45
Do you expect Poland’s joining the EU in 14 months time will affect you Do you expect Poland’s joining the EU in 14 months time will affect you personally?personally?
rather yes34%
rather not23%
definitely not11%
hard to say 16%
definitely yes16%
N=1000
46
12%
25%
30%
44%
25%
17%
13%
44%
38%
38%
37%
19%
20%
20%
14%6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
work (will be lighter orheavier)
material status (willimprove or deteriorate)
satisfaction with life(will improve or
deteriorate)
scope for personalgrowth (will increase or
diminish)
positive expectations negative expectations nothing will change hard to say
How do you imagine your future after joining the EU?
N=1000
47
WHAT WILL CHANGE IN YOUR PERSONAL WHAT WILL CHANGE IN YOUR PERSONAL SITUATION?SITUATION?
A significant aspect from the viewpoint of expected effects of integration of personal situation is the time horizon.
Poles are more optimistic when we ask about a distant perspective, 10 years after joining the EU, than when we ask about the immediate post entry period.
Work burden: even after 10 years there are fears related with this issue
48
25%
42%
41%
45%
16%
7%
6%
5%
31%
25%
25%
29%
27%
27%
28%
21%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
work (will be lighter orheavier)
material status (willimprove or deteriorate)
satisfaction with life (willimprove or deteriorate)
scope for personalgrowth (will increase or
diminish)
positive expectations negative expectations nothing will change hard to say
How do you envision your future after 10 years’ of Poland in the EU, i.e. 2014?
Growth in positive expectations
+1
+11
+17
+13
N=1000
49
In early 2003 the Polish public was interested in ....
WHAT WILL CHANGE IN THE COUNTRY’S WHAT WILL CHANGE IN THE COUNTRY’S SITUATION? SITUATION?
50
Poles expect:
positive changes in the areas they deem to be of utmost importance,
changes for the worse in relative less important areas.
The is one exception: the majority fear that cost of living will go up after EU entry.
WHAT WILL CHANGE IN THE COUNTRY’S SITUATION?WHAT WILL CHANGE IN THE COUNTRY’S SITUATION?
51
INFORMATION NEEDSINFORMATION NEEDS
- QUALITATIVE RESEARCH-- QUALITATIVE RESEARCH-
52
FARMERS - INFORMATION NEEDSFARMERS - INFORMATION NEEDS
All respondents expressed the need for deeper going information about the functioning of agriculture in the EU.
Information needs focused on the demand for “specifics”. The respondents would like to know about :
planing production,
money ,
problems in farming.
Finances as information go, everything is based on some kind of percent. A percent of this, a percent of that, no mention of money as such, so that a farmer could do his sums how much will he really get.
[farmers 21 ha and more, Wielkopolska]
53
ENTREPRENEURS - INFORMATION AND TRAINING ENTREPRENEURS - INFORMATION AND TRAINING NEEDS NEEDS
In all groups the respondents declared that they do not know enough about what they should do to conform with EU membership standards.
Some declared to have searched for such information on their own.
Such actions did not meet with much success, as the scope, depth or form of information did not correspond with expectations, or their knowledge level.
54
POLAND JOINING EU - INFORMATION AND TRAINING POLAND JOINING EU - INFORMATION AND TRAINING NEEDS NEEDS
Respondents revealed to be in need of information about necessary certificates and licenses and practical data - how, where can these be obtained, what should be done to get them.
They also lack information about:
necessary changes - in organisation, legal (Employment Law in particular, Taxes, Corporate Law, Trade Law),
technical norms in vigour in member countries
modern technology.
55
REFERENDUM REFERENDUM
56
REFERENDUM - FARMERS REFERENDUM - FARMERS
Respondents overwhelmingly agreed, that farmers are not a group which will particularly gain from EU entry, hence the question about
referendum plans generated highly diverse reactions.
NONO
(several people in each group)
Poland’s joining the EU is bad for Polish agriculture
and for Poland;
the country will become economically overwhelmed,
it will become solely an area for selling EU production .
YESYES
(2-3 people per group)
positive effects for further generations;
the “lesser evil”.
I haven’t made up my mind yet, but logically, looking at Poland’s location, the market situation, then generally speaking we have no other choice. Remaining in the present state and such economic condition is even worse than joining the Union.
Many are still undecided.
[farmers up to 5 ha, Lubelskie]
57
REFERENDUM - ENTREPRENEURS REFERENDUM - ENTREPRENEURS
A large majority of entrepreneurs declared support for EU membership.
This is based in the hope, that the new situation will be better than that at present.
The “yes” decision is based upon care for their children’s future, the faith, that they will have new opportunities open to them, that their
life standard will improve greatly.
To late for me to benefit from EU,but it will be a boon for the young generation. I am of an age at which - as they say - to old for one, to young for other, but those who are 15 today, will not have anything to be ashamed about. They will be European, regardless of here or there, they will feel equally. We will have to struggle for our lives.
[Poznań]
Our life standard will improve. None of us is deluded that our pensions will be like in Germany, but I feel that a sense of stabilisation.
[Katowice]
58
44%37%
69%
31% 48%
20%8%
9%4%
6%
3% 6%11%
4% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Farmers Entrepreneurs
definitely yes rather yes rather no certainly no DK
There will be a referendum on joining the EU in June. Do you plan to vote? There will be a referendum on joining the EU in June. Do you plan to vote?
N=1000
59
66%
42%
75%
13%
14%
11%
21%
45%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Farmers Entrepreneurs
for membership against membership undecided
How do you plan to vote in the referendum? How do you plan to vote in the referendum?
N=752
60
REFERENDUM- WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF WE DON’T JOIN REFERENDUM- WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF WE DON’T JOIN THE EU THE EU
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
Likely
Nothing will happen, things will continue as they are now
Unlikely
Poland will gradually become a poor and backward country by European standards
We will bind ourselves with the USA, which will bring about greater benefits than EU membership
On our own we will achieve high development levels that would be possible as part of EU
Poland will come under Russian influence
61
6%
12%
18%
23%
34%
30%
35%
32%
28%
23%
34%
29%
17%
15%
12%
18%
20%
26%
18%
16%
5%
7%
16%
16%
12%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Poland will come under Russian influence
On our own we will achive high development levels thatwould be possible as part of EU
We will bind ourselves with the USA, which will bringabout greater beneifts than EU membership
Poland will gradually become a poor and backwardcountry by European standards
Nothing will happen, things will continue as they are now
very likely quite likely quite unlikely very unlikely DK
What will be Poland’s fate if it will not join the EU. How likely is it ...? What will be Poland’s fate if it will not join the EU. How likely is it ...?
N=1000
