attention: laurie mcpherson bousfields inc. 3 church street, … planning/da-14132901... ·...

Stantec Consulting Ltd. 300W-675 Cochrane Drive, Markham ON L3R 0B8

February 1, 2016 File: 160622353.230

Attention: Laurie McPherson Bousfields Inc. 3 Church Street, Suite 200 Toronto, Ontario M5E 1M2 Phone: 416-947-9744 Fax: 416-947-0781

Dear Ms. McPherson,

Reference: Transportation Brief Proposed Residential Townhouse Development Block 55 – River Oaks – Scheme B Lillykin Street, Town of Oakville

Summary

This letter report has been prepared to provide an opinion on the transportation impact of the proposed development of 36 townhouse units on a site at the north end of Lillykin Street in the Town of Oakville. The site location is shown in Figure 1.

The rationale for preparing a Transportation Brief (or opinion letter) rather than a full Transportation Impact Study is as follows:

• The number of trips that could be generated by the proposed development in either the weekday a.m. or p.m. peak hours is approximately 25, which is much less than the threshold of 100 trips units that is typically used for determining the need for a full Transportation Impact Study (e.g. North Oakville, Terms of Reference for Transportation Impact Studies and Transportation Functional Design Studies);

• The subject site is at the north end of Lillykin Street and will only have one access to the adjacent collector road network – i.e. via the local streets Lillykin Street and Namron Gate to an intersection with River Oaks Boulevard (east-west collector) opposite Mount Drive;

• A Transportation Study was conducted in 2012 for a proposed residential development to the south of the subject site, i.e. Transportation Study – 2158, 2168, 2180 and 2192 Trafalgar Road – Proposed Residential Townhouse Development – Town of Oakville, MMM Group, August 2012 (the 2012 MMM study); and

• The 2012 MMM study assessed the transportation impact of the full build-out of 114 townhouses, and concluded that in the future (2017), the intersection of River Oaks

February 1, 2016 Laurie McPherson of 7

Reference: Transportation Brief

Boulevard/Namron Gate-Mount Drive would operate a very good level of service and well within capacity under minor street stop control. No capacity or safety improvements such as additional through or turning lanes, or a higher form of traffic control (e.g. all-way stop or traffic signals), were identified as future requirements at this intersection. Similarly, it was concluded that the nearby signalized intersection of Trafalgar Road/River Oaks Boulevard-Briarhall Gate would also operate at a very good level of service and well within capacity in the future.

The additional development now proposed at the north end of Lillykin Street has been assessed within the Transportation Brief, and the conclusions of the 2012 MMM Study have been reconfirmed. The analysis contained in the Transportation Brief indicates that the proposed development of 36 townhouse units on the subject site will have negligible impact on the adjacent transportation network.

Methodology

The Transportation Brief builds upon the 2012 MMM study prepared for the lands immediately to the south of the subject lands, and considers the same background information (i.e. Study Area and other nearby developments that are approved or are in the approval process). The scope includes:

• A Study Area comprising the intersections of River Oaks Boulevard with both Namron Gate-Mount Drive and Trafalgar Road; and

• Updated traffic forecasts for a horizon year of 2017 to match the horizon year from the MMM study. It is noted that MMM found that historical growth on the Study Area roads had been negligible, but traffic from other several other proposed developments1 was taken into account in the 2017 forecast.

The key tasks undertaken to understand the potential impact of the proposed development, and to form an opinion, are as follows:

• Estimate the net increase in traffic due to the proposed development;

• Combine the 2017 future traffic volumes developed in the MMM study with the subject site traffic to determine the total traffic volumes for the 2017 horizon year;

1 Kilbarry Holdings Corporation (52 Units Single Family Detached); Oak Park Boulevard at Taunton Road Development (94 Apartment units, 18,600 SF Retail); Proposed Residence, Sheridan College – Trafalgar Road at Ceremonial Road (448 Students); and Commercial Development – Trafalgar Road at Dundas Street (42,884 SF Retail, 16,493 SF Retail, 31,015 SF Retail, and 319,142 SF Office).



• Conduct a peak hour operational analysis of the updated 2017 total traffic volumes at the River Oaks Boulevard/Namron Gate-Mount Drive intersection; and

• Determine the potential impact of the proposed development on the Trafalgar Road/River Oaks Boulevard-Briarhall Gate intersection by determining the percentage increase in 2017 traffic at that intersection with the addition of the subject site traffic.

Proposed Development

As shown in Figure 2, the concept site plan dated January 27, 2016 shows 36 townhouse units and 54 parking spaces (45 resident and 9 visitor spaces). Vehicular access for the site would be provided by Lillykin Street, which connects to Namron Gate and an intersection with River Oaks Boulevard opposite Mount Drive.

There are a mix of land uses in proximity to the subject site including low and medium density residential development, medical office buildings, a daycare centre, and a church. The adjacent area can be considered to be mostly built-out, and the subject site generally represents infill development.

Roads and Traffic Control

River Oaks Boulevard is an east-west collector road according to the Town’s Official Plan – Figure E Transportation Plan, and forms the west leg of the Trafalgar Road/River Oaks Boulevard-Briarhall Gate intersection. It is a two lane undivided road with a posted maximum speed limit of 50 km/h. Bicycle lanes are demarcated along each side of River Oaks Boulevard.

Trafalgar Road runs north-south and has two travel lanes in each direction. The road is classified as a regional primary arterial and has a posted maximum speed limit of 60 km/h.

The intersection of Trafalgar Road/River Oaks Boulevard-Briarhall Gate is a signalized intersection with auxiliary left turn lanes provided on the Trafalgar Road approaches. An auxiliary right turn lane is provided on the River Oaks Boulevard approach.

The intersection of River Oaks Boulevard/Namrom Gate-Mount Drive is an unsignalized intersection, with stop control provided on the Namron Gate and Mount Drive approaches. No auxiliary turn lanes are provided.

Traffic Volumes

The 2017 traffic forecasts that were estimated in the 2012 MMM study are illustrated in Figure 3, and form the background traffic for consideration within the Transportation Brief.



The weekday peak hour vehicular traffic that would be generated by the subject development was based on the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) publication, Trip Generation, 9th Edition, and the trip generation formulae for Residential Condominium/Townhouse (ITE land use code 230), and is shown in Table 1. It is generally acknowledged that ITE trip rates reflect negligible non-auto mode split, however, no adjustments have been made to account for travel by other modes such as transit, walk, or cycle. Notwithstanding, the subject development can be considered to be a low trip generator.

Table 1 Site Trip Generation1

Land Use Units AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour

In Out Total In Out Total Residential Condominium/Townhouse

36 4 19 23 17 9 26

1 Source: ITE Trip Generation Manual, 9th Edition, Land Use Code 230

The new site trips were assigned to the road network based on the same directional trip distribution and patterns evident in the 2012 MMM study. The site traffic volumes are illustrated in Figure 4.

The updated 2017 future total traffic forecast was determined by combining the background traffic (2017 traffic forecast in the MMM study) with the subject site traffic assignments, and is illustrated in Figure 5.

Analysis

The quality of intersection operations is typically measured in terms of level of service (LOS) and volume to capacity (v/c) ratio. The LOS is assigned on the basis of average delay per vehicle and includes deceleration delay, queue move-up time, stopped delay, and final acceleration delay. For unsignalized intersections, the LOS ranges from LOS A for 10 seconds or less average delay to LOS F for average delay greater than 50 seconds.

The v/c ratio provides a measure of traffic volume demand relative to capacity, where at-capacity conditions are represented by a v/c ratio of 1.0 (i.e., volume demand equals capacity).

The updated 2017 a.m. and p.m. peak hour traffic volumes for the River Oaks Boulevard/Namron Gate-Mount Drive intersection were analyzed Synchro 9.0 Software, which implements the methods of the 2000 Highway Capacity Manual. The key parameters used in the analysis include:



• Existing lane arrangements;

• Same peak hour factors as in the 2012 MMM study; and

• Synchro default values for all other inputs.

The results of the current analysis (Stantec) are presented and compared to the previous analysis (MMM) in Table 2.

Table 2 River Oaks Boulevard/Namron Gate-Mount Drive Operational Analysis

2017 Future Total Traffic Volumes

Approach/Movement AM Peak Hour

LOS (Delay) [v/c] PM Peak Hour

LOS (Delay) [v/c] Stantec MMM Stantec MMM

EB Left/Thru/Right A ( <1 ) [ 0.00 ] A ( <1 ) [ 0.00 ] 1- 1- WB Left/Thru/Right A ( 1 ) [ 0.01 ] A ( 1 ) [ 0.01 ] A ( 1 ) [ 0.03 ] A ( 1 ) [ 0.03 ] NB Left/Thru/Right B ( 11 ) [ 0.06 ] B ( 11 ) [ 0.06 ] B ( 11 ) [ 0.05 ] B ( 11 ) [ 0.05 ] SB Left/Thru/Right B ( 14 ) [ 0.21 ] B ( 13 ) [ 0.17 ] B (15 ) [ 0.14 ] B (15 ) [ 0.14 ]

1 No Left Turn Volume (therefore no level of service indicated since the through and right turn movements would be

considered unopposed or free flow)

The analysis results confirm that the intersection will operate at a very good level of service (B or better) and well within capacity. In comparing the current analysis results to those in the previous 2012 MMM study, it is clear that the additional site traffic would have minimal impact on the River Oaks Boulevard/Namron Gate-Mount Drive intersection since there are no changes in the level of service and only a minor increase in the volume to capacity ratio for the southbound approach (Namron Gate) during the a.m. peak hour.

To provide a high level assessment of the potential impact of the subject site’s traffic on the future operation of the Trafalgar Road/River Oaks Boulevard-Briarhall Gate intersection, the updated 2017 traffic forecasts have been compared to the previous 2017 traffic forecasts contained in the 2012 MMM study. The results are summarized in Table 3.



Table 3 Trafalgar Road Volume/River Oaks Boulevard-Briarhall Gate Intersection

Comparison of 2017 Future Total Traffic Entering

Movement AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour

Stantec MMM +/- (% Diff) Stantec MMM +/- (% Diff) EBL 123 116 +7 (6%) 71 66 +5 (8%) EBT 4 4 - 6 6 - EBR 183 171 +12 (7%) 84 80 +4 (5%) WBL 9 9 - 5 5 - WBT 9 9 - 23 23 - WBR 8 8 - 15 15 - NBL 50 48 +2 (4%) 155 144 +11 (8%) NBT 980 980 - 1,389 1,389 - NBR 7 7 - 22 22 - SBL 5 5 - 10 10 - SBT 1,209 1,209 - 1,164 1,164 - SBR 58 56 +2 (4%) 135 129 +6 (5%)

Overall Entering 2,645 2,622 +23 (<1%) 3,079 3,053 +26 (<1%)

As shown above, the change in the amount of traffic entering the Trafalgar Road/River Oaks Boulevard-Briarhall Gate intersection during either the weekday a.m. or p.m. peak hours would be negligible (less than 1%). The small percentage change would be well within the typical daily variation of peak hour traffic (approximately 5%).

Conclusions

The conclusions of the Transportation Brief are as follows:

a) The 2012 MMM study for an adjacent development within the Study Area, which also considered the build-out of several nearby developments, found that no road or traffic control improvements would be required at the intersections of River Oaks Boulevard/Namron Gate-Mount Drive or Trafalgar Road/River Oaks Boulevard-Briarhall Gate by that study’s horizon year of 2017.

b) With the addition of the small amount of subject site traffic (approximately 25 trips in either the a.m. or p.m. peak hours) to the 2017 traffic forecasts contained in the 2012 MMM study, the resulting analysis reconfirmed the conclusions of the earlier study.



c) The additional site traffic on the road network due to the proposed development of 36 townhouse units on the subject site would result in negligible traffic impacts on the Study Area intersections.

Regards,

STANTEC CONSULTING LTD.

Adrian Soo, P. Eng. Transportation Engineer Phone: (905) 944 - 6192 Fax: (905) 474-9889 [email protected]

Attachment: Figures 1-5

Figure 1N.T.S. Study Area

Proposed Site LocationN

Figure 2N.T.S. Concept Site Plan

2016 Future Total Traffic

Namrom Gate Trafalgar Road

46 1,303 86 25 1,270 1,104 84 1,470

2 0 44 23 84 129 1,164 10 8 15 92 196 2 0 84 83 191 112 302 113 296 56 1,209 5 9 23 26 43

6 27 9 5River Oaks Boulevard Briarhall Gate

0 2 66 116 105 195 94 187 7 0 19 151 290 152 291 6 4 48 980 7 38 16

11 6 3 0 13 80 171 144 1,389 22

38 1,249 12 26 1,389 1,035 16 1,555

AM Peak Hour 123 Figure 3PM Peak Hour 123 N.T.S. 2017 Future Total Traffic Volumes - MMM Study

Mount Drive

N

Site Traffic


9 6 19 4 2 7 17 5

9 4 17 6 0 0 19 4 17 4 17 2 0 0

River Oaks Boulevard Briarhall Gate

5 7 0 0 9 19 9 19 2 0 0

4 12 11

0 4 0 0 12 2 0 11

AM Peak Hour 123 Figure 4PM Peak Hour 123 N.T.S. Site Traffic Volumes

Mount Drive

N

2021 Future Total Traffic


55 1,309 105 29 1,272 1,111 101 1,475

2 0 53 27 101 135 1,164 10 8 15 92 196 2 0 103 83 191 116 319 117 313 58 1,209 5 9 23 26 43

6 27 9 5River Oaks Boulevard Briarhall Gate

0 2 71 123 105 195 94 187 7 0 19 160 309 161 310 6 4 50 980 7 38 16

11 6 3 0 13 84 183 155 1,389 22

38 1,253 12 26 1,401 1,037 16 1,566

AM Peak Hour 123 Figure 5PM Peak Hour 123 N.T.S. 2017 Future Total Traffic Volumes - Updated

Mount Drive

N

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