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Attachment 2 ‐‐ Boise Scenario Workshop Presentation Slides

Boise Scenario Planning Workshop Summary Attachment 2 –

Welcome!

The workshop begins at 9:30 a.m.

Please help yourself to refreshments

Scenario Planning Workshops February 29-March 2, 2012

Please help yourself to refreshments, and then find a seat in the general session area.

TodayCommunities in Motion 2040 -- Scenario Planning Workshops

Thank you for being here!

• We want and need your input today


• This is part of a bigger process

• We’ll cover a lot of ground… contribute where you can

• Relax, engage, and have fun!



Workshop Overview

Opening

3

State of the region/planning area information

Session 1 – Building your scenario (at tables)

Session 2 – Refining your scenario (at tables)

Session 3 – Regional Priorities


Scenario Comparisons

Closing

Workshop Conduct

Listen activelyP i i i l

4

Participate constructivelyBe creative – Think outside the boxAsk for help/clarification when you need itStay engagedHonor the workshop process and timeframes


Honor the workshop process and timeframesSilence all personal electronic devicesHAVE FUN!



Communities in Motion 20405

Liisa Itkonen, COMPASS



What Is Communities in Motion (CIM)?

Regional long-range transportation plan for Ada and Canyon Counties

6

for Ada and Canyon Counties20 (+/-) year outlookLooks at how and where the valley may grow and plans a transportation system to accommodate that growthU d d f


Updated every four years



Previous CIM Plans

CIM 2030 o Adopted in 2006

7

o Adopted in 2006o Scenario planning process in 2004

developed “Community Choices” as the preferred growth scenario for that plan

CIM 2035


o Adopted in 2010o Continued the vision of “Community

Choices” as the foundation of the plan

CIM 2040

COMPASS Board of Directors approved a scope of work that considers:

8

work that considers:Transportation and land use, andHousing, community infrastructure and health effects related to transportation and land use patterns

Builds on previous CIM plans, with a new i l i


scenario planning processMeets federal requirements for regional long-range transportation plan



Plan Elements

CIM 2040 will offer a vision for future growth and aim to link many interconnected elements:

9

aim to link many interconnected elements:Economic DevelopmentHousingLand UseTransportationHealth


Open SpaceFarmlandCommunity Infrastructure

CIM 2040 – Next Steps 10

• Scenario planning;• Continue public

involvement; • Gather/analyze

data

2012

• Develop draft plan;

• Continue public involvement

2013 • Public comment on draft plan;

• Present to COMPASS Board for adoption

2014

• Implement plan;

• Begin grant program

2015




Scenario Planning – In Context11

• Scenario Planning Workshops in Nampa, Boise, and Meridian.

3-5 Possible Scenarios

• Many public outreach opportunities for review and comment on the possible scenarios.

Public Feedback on the Scenarios

• Follow up workshop to incorporate public comment on the scenarios and create a preferred scenario

Preferred Scenario

• COMPASS selects the scenario to implement for CIM 2040.

Adopted Scenario


State of the Region12 g

Doug Walker, Placeways




Treasure Valley Today13

Economic Development

HousingLand Use

TransportationHealth

Open Space


FarmlandCommunity

Infrastructure

Today’s Treasure Valley14

Ad C C bi dAda Canyon Combined

Population (2010) 392,365 188,923 581,288 Pop. Change (2000 – 2010) 30.4% 43.7% 34.4%

Jobs* 197,199 49,805 247,004Businesses** 12,971 3,898 16,869

Area (sq. miles) 1,055 590 1645


* US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, On the Map, 2009.**Private nonfarm employment and establishments, 2008



15

16



1990Today

19

About Keypad Polling

Anonymous, but keep your own keypad so we can correlate answers

20

can correlate answers If you make a mistake, just reenter the correct value – your most recent entry is usedYou are not required to respond to any particular pollNot really a “vote,” just opinions or polls


Please DO NOT take keypads home



You know you’re in Idaho when…21

1. Restaurants offer “fry sauce” as a condiment

VOTE 01

2. You leave your keys in the car and the next morning it's still there

3. You've golfed where the hazards include wagon wheel ruts from the Oregon Trail

4. You know everything you want to know about other drivers by


the first number and letter on their license plate

5. You think grass is blue

What is your primary role/organization?22

1. Government2 Nonprofit

VOTE 02

2. Nonprofit3. Academic/student4. Business 5. Private citizen6. A combination and I

can’t pick just one


7. Other



Where do you live?23

1. A city in Ada County2 Unincorporated Ada

VOTE 03

2. Unincorporated Ada3. A city in Canyon

County4. Unincorporated Canyon


How long have you lived here?24

1. 0-5 years2 6 10

VOTE 04

2. 6-10 years3. 11-15 years4. 15-20 years5. 20+ years




How old are you?25

1. 0-192 20-29

VOTE 05

2. 20-293. 30-394. 40-495. 50-596. 60-697. 70-79


7. 70 798. 80+9. None of your business

Key Issues/SWOT26 y /





SWOT: A starting point for discussion27

+ ̶

Strengths

O

Weaknesses

T

TODAY

RE


Opportunities Threats

FUTUR

• Cost of livingC ti l

Strengths

Economic Development

Weaknesses

DAY • Creative class

• Business costs• Low income inequality• Entrepreneurial spirit• Low power costs

• High unemployment• College degrees• Vacancy rates• Skills gap


TOD

E

28

• Attracting new employers• Alternative energy production• More educational alternatives• Tax incentives

• Loss of a large employer• Slow construction jobs recovery • Educational funding reductions

FUTURE



What is your opinion about the future of Economic Development in the region?

29

1. Not a major concern2 Small changes will be

VOTE 06

2. Small changes will be needed

3. Moderate changes will be needed

4. Large changes will be needed

h ll h


5. Biggest challenge the region will face

6. Not sure

• Housing foreclosuresL i h it

Strengths

Housing

Weaknesses

DAY

• Housing affordability• Low interest rates• Residential electricity costs

• Losses in home equity• Affordable housing incentives• Adequate rental housing• Housing + transportation costs• High rate of homelessness


TOD

E

30

• More housing choices• “Green” buildings and

neighborhoods• Market is stabilizing

• “Shadow inventory”• Vacancy and disinvestment• Housing for aging population• Financial support• Qualifying for financing

FUTURE



31

32



What is your opinion about the future of Housing in the region?

33


VOTE 07




h ll h



6. Not sure

• Infrastructure outside “areas of i t”

Strengths

Land Use

Weaknesses

DAY

• Existing city infrastructure• Strong central business district• Comprehensive plans

impact”• Development encroaching on

farms• Mixed use or transit-supportive

development


TOD

E

34

• Higher densities, mix of uses• Vacant and underdeveloped land• Walkable, mixed use redevelopment• New work dynamics• Coordinating transportation and land

use

• Jobs-to-housing imbalance• Sewer capacity• Developing transit-supportive land

use patterns• Farmland consumption

FUTURE



35

What is your opinion about the future of Land Use in the region?

36


VOTE 08




h ll h



6. Not sure



• Short commute timesI 84 i t Mi i l t it i

Strengths

Transportation

WeaknessesDAY • I-84 improvements

• Van pool program• Inter-county transit demand• Bike trails• Complete streets policies

• Minimal transit service• No dedicated transit funding• Aging roads and bridges• Lack of sidewalks• North and south corridors

Ad ti f h i tOpportunities Threats

TOD

E

37

• Adaptive use of shopping centers• Better awareness • Funding opportunities• Intelligent Transportation Systems• Preserving corridors• Public/Private Partnerships• Telecommuting and e-commerce• Multi-use pathways

• Degrading roads and transit• Lack of future funding• Auto-centric roadway system• Land use decisions• Reliance on federal funding

FUTURE

Hwy 20/26

Em

met

t

Market

Purple Sage Rd

Beacon Light

Duf

f

Old

Hw

y 30

Boise River

Oasis

n

Goodson

El P

a so

Dr

Seam

Sand Hollowe

Purple Sage

Sand Hollow

River

Goodson

Purple Sage Rd

Dry Creek Rd

2004: 17 min.

2011: 31 min.

Sample Travel Times: 2004 – 2011Typical Peak Travel Time

SH-55 (Eagle Rd) Ada/Boise County Line to Overland Rd

2004: 46 min.

Hwy 44

Ustick

Victory Rd

Hwy 55

Eagl

e R

d

Blac

k C

at

Franklin Rd

Overland

Hwy 21

Hwy 19

Five

Mile

Hw

y 16

Cherry Ln

nson

Amity Rd

Clo

verd

ale

Rd

Ten

Mil e

Rd

Locu

st G

rov e

McMillan RdSta r

Rd

Mi d

dlet

o n R

d

Lind

e r R

d

Hill Rd

Emerald

State St

No t

us

Fairview Ave

Lake Hazel Rd

Indi

ana

Mid

land

Farm

way

D

Homedale Rd

Marsing

Nor

thsi

de

Boise Ave

Front

Lake

Ave

Bogu

s Ba

sin

Map

le G

rov e

Rd

Orchard Ave

Greenhurst

Chinden Blvd

Alle

n dal

e

Orc

h ard

St

Wag

ner

Lone Star

Fran

k lin

Blv

d

K una

-Mer

idia

n R

d

Amity Ave

Mer

idia

n R

d

Mal

t Rd

10th

Ave

Floating Feather

12th

Av e

Lincoln

Pine Ave

Linden St

E Gowen Rd

2nd St S

py V

alle

y

Cleveland Blvd

Airport Rd

Linden Rd

Cur

tis R

d

Myrtle

Mid

way

1 st S

t

ry Creek R

d

V ist

a Av

e

Caldwell Blvd

Ca n

Ada

Park Center

Lowell Rd

Broa

dway

Av e

Blaine St

E Chicago St

Ch i

cken

Din

n er

Mi lw

auke

e S

t

Orchard

mans G

u lc h

15th

Garrity Blvd

Lata

h St

Warm Springs Ave

Gle

nwo o

d

9th

St

36t h

St

Simplot Blvd

7th St S

Car

twrig

ht R

d

Hol

ly S

t

27th

St

Pine

Plymouth

Pint

o

Y ale

Na m

pa Bl vd

Ext 44 Rd

Fran

klin

App

le

Hwy 20/26

Lake

Sh o

re

Lind

er R

d

Hwy 44

Linden St

Can

Ada

Ustick

Lincoln

Ustick

Col

e R

d

Mi d

land

Hw

y 55

Red Top State St

Mal

t Rd

Amity Rd

McD

erm

ott R

d

Ustick

Hw

y 9 5

Floating Feather

Lincoln

US 20/26 (Chinden)/ Front/Myrtle/ Broadway) from I-84 to I-84

2011: 57 min.

I-84

Hw

y 4 5Rim

Rd

Sou

t hsi

de

Rob

i

King Rd

Kuna-Mora Rd

Melba

Lewis

Col

e R

d

Riv

ersi

de Columbia

Missouri

Ple a

sant

Val

ley

Locust Federal Way

Pe r

ch

Kuna Rd

Bowmont

Melmont Rd

Lake ShoreHubbard Rd

Baker

Hap

p

Far n

er

Ten Mile Creek

McD

erm

ott R

d

Deer Flat Rd

Baseline

Sw

an F

a lls

Rd

L

Deer Flat Rd

Ten

Mile

Rd

Locust

Kuna Rd

Hubbard RdLewis

2004: 8.5 min.

2011: 9.5 min.

2004: 30 min.

2011: 38 min.

I-84 from US 20/26 (Exit 26) in Caldwell to Eisenman Rd

SH-45 from 2nd St S in Nampa to the City of Melba 38



What is your opinion about the future of Transportation in the region?

39


VOTE 09




h ll h



6. Not sure

• Medical insuranceSh t f h lth

Strengths

Health

Weaknesses

DAY

• Good place to raise a family• Clinical care, long lives• Top-100 hospitals• Access to outdoor recreation

• Shortage of some healthcare• Obesity rate and diet• Mental health• Discrepancy between Ada and

Canyon counties


TOD

E

40

• Neighborhood design• Bicycle and pedestrian trails• Community gardens• Local, fresh produce• Reducing heart disease, cancer, stroke,

and diabetes

• Aging population• Obesity• Air quality nonattainment

FUTURE



Walkability Scores41

Walkable Score


What is your opinion about the future of Health in the region?

42


VOTE 10




h ll h



6. Not sure



• Natural open spaceR ti l iti

Strengths

Open Space

WeaknessesDAY • Recreational amenities

• Scenery, active living, tourism• Parks and open space plans• Boise Foothills, Ridge-to-Rivers

trails systems

• Connectivity• Minimal region-wide funding• Unequally distributed


TOD

E

43

• Regulatory provisions• Funding for acquisition• Neighborhood designs• Underserved populations• Regional open space plan• Corridors for wildlife

• Development pressures• Reduction in funding

FUTURE

44



What is your opinion about the future of Open Space in the region?

45


VOTE 11




h ll h



6. Not sure

Strengths

Farmland

Weaknesses

DAY

• Soil, climate, and water• Agricultural economy• Agri-tourism• Demand for local food

• Public policy• Lack of understanding• Food import/export balance


TOD

E

46

• More local food production• Urban agriculture• Food-related businesses

• Finite soil resource (loss of farmland)

• Reduced economic opportunities• Reduced number of farmers and

their skills• Impaired farming operations

FUTURE



Farmland Map47

Farmland


What is your opinion about the future of Farmland in the region?

48


VOTE 12




h ll h



6. Not sure



• Proactive electrical planning“S t” l t i t

Strengths

Community Infrastructure

WeaknessesDAY • “Smart” electric meters

• Robust irrigation, canal and drainage system

• Water• Solid waste management

• Internet is slowest in nation• Maintenance costs• Electricity is imported• Electricity consumption

W iOpportunities Threats

TOD

E

49

• Water conservation• Wastewater reuse• Aquifer/groundwater recharge• Recycling programs• Solar, wind, and geothermal• LEED (“green”) building• Composting

• Groundwater resources• Wastewater discharge• Phosphorus regulations/cost• Available infrastructure capacity

FUTURE

Wastewater Infrastructure50 Wastewater Infrastructure

Wastewater Infrastructure


22

Distance to sewer

miles



What is your opinion about the future of Community Infrastructure in the region?

51


VOTE 13




h ll h



6. Not sure

What 2 topics are most important to you? (Vote twice, in priority order)

52

1. Economic Development

VOTE 15

Development2. Housing3. Land Use4. Transportation5. Health6. Open Space


7. Farmland8. Community

Infrastructure



Intro to Scenario Planning53 g



Scenario Planning54

Creates “pictures” of possible alternative futuresalternative futures

Explores many different paths we could take as the region grows and changes over the next 30 years and beyond

A way to think about what we need for the future


what we need for the futurewhat we want for the futurewhat choices we can make today



Demographics/Base Scenarios55 g p /

Carl Miller, COMPASS


Population Forecast

Communities in Motion Forecast Updated every 4 yearsMethodology

56

MethodologyEconometricTrendCohort SurvivalComparison AreaDelphi Method


"A part of our future appears to be evolutionary and unpredictable, and another part looks developmental and predictable. Our challenge is to invent the first and discover the second.” --John Smart


1,022,000

1,000,000

57

256,881 295,851

432,345

581,288

674,610

830,440

228 067 247,007299,640

393,809

466,000

400,000

600,000

800,000


175,120

256,881

147,087

228,067 247,007

-

200,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Population

Jobs

Targets58

Population: 1,022,000

Jobs: 466,000




Preliminary Scenarios59

2040

Today


Scenarios60

Amy Anderson, Placeways




Preliminary Scenarios

Reference point for today’s exercisesP id t ti i t

61

Provide a starting pointSome ideas, but not the only optionsPurposefully high levelExamples of what a finished scenario looks like


Trend

Growth occurring in the same ways

62

in the same ways as the last several decades


Population Change 1990 - 2010

Loss None High



63

Trend

Trend


Total 2040 Housing Density

Low High

Housing

64

Trend

Trend


Total 2040 Employment Density

Low High

Jobs



Community Choices

Based on “Community Choices”, official, approved growth scenario of Communities in

65

approved growth scenario of Communities in Motion 2030 and 2035 plans. Focus on homes & jobs balance in regionMore choices in housing typesAdditional choices in transportation modesHigher housing densities


Preservation of open space and farmland

66

Community Choices

TrendCommunity Choices



Low High

Housing



67

Community Choices

TrendCommunity Choices



Low High

Jobs

68

Expands the transportation system with a robust public transit, complete streets, and trail

Transit-Oriented Development/ Increased Transit and Trails

public transit, complete streets, and trail network.Housing and employment concentrated close to high capacity transit stations.Housing choices, including large-lot & suburban homes, condos, and apartmentsAll f d l t i t l t d


Allow for development in most populated areas of the region.



69


TrendCommunity ChoicesTTT



Low High

Housing

70


TrendCommunity ChoicesTTT



Low High

Jobs



Scenario Indicators

71

Introduction to Today’s Exercises72




Growth Scenarios

Each table must develop a growth scenarioUse a palette of 16 land use ‘paints’

73

Use a palette of 16 land use paintsAccount for 1,022,000 total residentsAccount for 466,000 total jobsRepresents growth through 2040Look at other choicesReview and understand impacts of each scenario


Review and understand impacts of each scenario

What information do you have?74

Study Area





Population Change


Population Change 1990 - 2010

Loss None High

gChange


Trails and Paths





Transit



Schools and Open Space


pSpace




Farmland and Environmentally


Sensitive Areas


Floodplain and Wetlands


Wetlands




Current Land Use



Vacant and Undevelopable


Lands




Distance to Infrastructure


Infrastructure



Roads Projects





Transit Projects

Transportation Choices86

Transportation




Where will people live and work?87

Your Canvas


Your Canvas: Map Areas88




What do map areas know?89


How do we distribute growth?90




Land Uses

Designed for large areas

91

areasNo restrictions on locationsOnly limited by land constraints pre-calculated


calculatedSome can be applied as redevelopment

Infill and Redevelopment92

Infill –New development will only be built

Redevelopment –New development will be built on all buildable

Vacant

Built

Existing –Some areas are vacant and some


will only be built on remaining vacant land.

be built on all buildable land, replacing existing development if applicable.

vacant and some are built.



Land Use Types93 Houses: 3 acres

per house minimum

Jobs: None

Single Family RuralVery low density rural residential and agricultural uses

Houses: 3 acre lots with open space


Jobs: None

Single Family Rural ClusterVery low density rural residential clustered for agriculture and open space preservation

Land Use Types94 Houses: 1 per

acre

Jobs: 0.2 per acre

Planned CommunityLow Density single family lots and minimal service retail employment

Houses: 2 per acre

Jobs: None


Single Family LowLow Density single family lots




acre

Jobs: 0.3 per acre

Single Family MediumMedium density single family lots

Houses: 7 per acre

Jobs: 0.5 per


pacre

Single Family HighHigh density single family lots


acre

Jobs: 2.5 jobs per acre

TownhomesHigh density Townhomes & Multifamily Buildings

Houses: 28 per acre

Jobs: 6 jobs per


Jobs: 6 jobs per acre

Downtown Lofts Multifamily



Land Use Types97 Houses: 6.5 per

acre


Neighborhood CenterMixed use, townhomes, and 1-3 floor commercial, office buildings.

Houses: 8 per acre

Jobs: 9 jobs per


acre

Community CenterMixed use, condos, and 1-3 floor commercial, office buildings.


acre


City Center/Central Business DistrictMixed use, townhomes, lofts, and 3-15 floor commercial, office buildings.

Houses: None



p

Office ParkSingle Use Office Park



Land Use Types99 Houses: None


Shopping CenterSingle Use Commercial

Houses: None



p

Industrial ParkSingle Use Industrial

Land Use Types100 Houses: None

Jobs: None

ParkSingle Use Conservation/Recreation

Houses: None

Jobs: None


Public/Quasi-Public or Open SpaceSingle Use publicly or quasi-owned property



What do the paints know?

Homes: multifamily and single familyJobs: retail office and other

101

Jobs: retail, office and otherPersons per householdNeeded new road milesNew car travel tripsWater use ratesWastewater generation rates


Wastewater generation ratesSolid waste generation rates

CommunityViz®

What are the Tools?102

Esri ArcGIS Desktop


Smoothboard



What is the Table?103


Choices and Impacts104

Farmland Open SpaceEconomic Development


HealthHousing



Regional Priorities105 Regional PrioritiesDoug Walker, Placeways


Regional Priorities

Topics that don’t map well or are hard to measure

106

measureAspects that should have a bearing on CIM 2040All polls are optional – you may “pass”




Do you still have your keypad?107

1. YesN (?!)

VOTE 16

2. No (?!)


What is your Table Number?108

1. 12 2

VOTE 17

2. 23. 34. 45. 56. 67. 7


7. 78. 89. 9



Economic DevelopmentOptional: Choose 1 or 2 priorities in order

109 VOTE 18

1. Do nothing differently from todayy

2. Invest in education3. Recruit national

employers4. Nurture local business

start-ups5. Tax incentives for


employers6. Other7. (New idea here)

HousingOptional: Choose 1 or 2 priorities in order

110 VOTE 19

1. Do nothing differently from today

2. Encourage “green” building

3. Encourage retirement housing

4. Mortgage assistance programs

5. Affordable housing


5. Affordable housing subsidies

6. Other



Land UseOptional: Choose 1 or 2 priorities in order

111 VOTE 20


2. Increase mix of uses3. Promote clustered

development surrounded by open space and farmland

4. Other


TransportationOptional: Choose 1 or 2 priorities in order

112 VOTE 21


2. Roads and highways3. Transit including vanpools4. Tax incentives for

telecommuting5. Complete streets6. Intelligent Transportation

Systems


Systems7. Public-Private Partnerships8. Other



HealthOptional: Choose 1 or 2 priorities in order

113 VOTE 22


2. Healthy neighborhood design

3. Bike and pedestrian trails4. Community gardens5. Health care facilities6. Other


Open SpaceOptional: Choose 1 or 2 priorities in order

114 VOTE 23


2. Regulatory provisions3. Funding for acquisition4. Neighborhood design5. Emphasis on underserved

populations6. Regional open space plan7 Corridors for wildlife


7. Corridors for wildlife8. Other



Should there be an open space target for cities in the region?

115 VOTE 24

1. No; none. 2 1 acre/1000 people2. 1 acre/1000 people3. 5 acres/1000 people 4. 10 acres/1000 people 5. 15 acres/1000 people6. 20 acres/1000 people7. 25 acres/1000 people


7. 25 acres/1000 people

FarmlandOptional: Choose 1 or 2 priorities in order

116 VOTE 25


2. Local food production and promotion

3. Urban agriculture4. Food-related businesses5. Enhanced “Right to Farm”

regulations6 Promoting farmland


6. Promoting farmland preservation

7. Other



Community InfrastructureOptional: Choose 1 or 2 priorities in order

117 VOTE 26


2. Water conservation3. Aquifer/groundwater

recharge4. Recycling and composting5. Solar, wind, and

geothermal6 Energy conservation


6. Energy conservation7. Other

Which indicators were most important or useful to you? Choose 3.

118

1. Local jobs/housing balance2. Population near major activity

VOTE 27

centers3. Housing mix4. Land use mix5. Average distance from housing

to transit6. Population near transit routes7. Vehicle miles traveled (VMT)


Which indicators were most important or useful to you? Choose 3.

119 VOTE 28

1. Walkability2. Population near parks and

public schools3. Number of houses in

environmentally sensitive areas

4. Houses in floodplain5. Recreation space per capita6. Agricultural loss7 Cost of new residential


7. Cost of new residential infrastructure

8. Water use9. Wastewater generation

Of these indicators that can be estimated off-line, which look the most important or useful? Choose 2.

120

1. Housing affordability2. Housing + transportation

VOTE 29

g paffordability

3. Traffic congestion4. Air quality




Scenario Comparisons121 Scenario ComparisonsAmy Anderson, Placeways


Closing Remarks122 Closing RemarksLiisa Itkonen, COMPASS




Next Steps…123

• Scenario Planning Workshops in Nampa, Boise, and Meridian.

3-5 Possible Scenarios

• Many public outreach opportunities for review and comment on the possible scenarios.

Public Feedback on the Scenarios

• Follow up workshop to incorporate public comment on the scenarios and create a preferred scenario

Preferred Scenario

• COMPASS selects the scenario to implement for CIM 2040.

Adopted Scenario


Thank You!

Please stay involved in CIM 2040 by commenting on the scenarios during


commenting on the scenarios during the public comment period.

www.compassidaho.org

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