attachai jintrawet multiple cropping center, chiang mai univ., chiang mai. & kim c. nguyen,...
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Attachai JintrawetMultiple Cropping Center, Chiang Mai Univ., Chiang Mai.
& Kim C. Nguyen, Atmospheric Res. Center, CSIRO.
@ Sasin Graduate School of Management, Chulalongkorn University, Sasapatasala Building, room 521.
Simulating impacts of future climate on rice and human in CNX, KKC Thailand
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Rice production systems and climate changesStudy methodsResultsSummary
Issues
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Global carbon cycle and stocksA t m o s p h e r e = 7 6 0
A c c u m u l a t i o n 3 . 3 0 . 2
V e g e t a t i o n = 5 0 0
S o i l s a n d d e t r i t u s = 2 0 0 0
= 2 5 0 0
O c e a n = 3 9 0 0 0
F o s s i l O r g a n i c C & C a r b o n a t e m i n e r a l s
> 6 0 0 0
R u n o f f = 0 . 8
F o s s i l F u e l s a n d C e m e n t P r o d u c t i o n 6 . 3 0 . 6
N e t T e r r e s t r i a l U p t a k e 0 . 7 ± 1 . 0
N e t O c e a n u p t a k e 2 . 3 ± 0 . 8
A i r / S e a E x c h a n g e = 9 0
S e d i m e n t a t i o n = 0 . 2
R e s p i r a t i o n a n d F i r e = 6 0
G l o b a l N e t P r i m a r y P r o d u c t i v i t y
A t m o s p h e r e = 7 6 0A c c u m u l a t i o n 3 . 3 0 . 2
V e g e t a t i o n = 5 0 0
S o i l s a n d d e t r i t u s = 2 0 0 0
= 2 5 0 0
O c e a n = 3 9 0 0 0
F o s s i l O r g a n i c C & C a r b o n a t e m i n e r a l s
> 6 0 0 0
R u n o f f = 0 . 8
F o s s i l F u e l s a n d C e m e n t P r o d u c t i o n 6 . 3 0 . 6
N e t T e r r e s t r i a l U p t a k e 0 . 7 ± 1 . 0
N e t O c e a n u p t a k e 2 . 3 ± 0 . 8
A i r / S e a E x c h a n g e = 9 0
A i r / S e a E x c h a n g e = 9 0
S e d i m e n t a t i o n = 0 . 2
R e s p i r a t i o n a n d F i r e = 6 0
G l o b a l N e t P r i m a r y P r o d u c t i v i t y
Thailand carries 1 million ha of riceland
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Rice yield (kg ha-1) and population
0
2,500
5,000
Thailand: 65 Millions
KK = 1.8 Millions
CNX = 1.6 Millions
1974 84 94 00
OAE, 1975-2001
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Historical weather data
KK, CM1985-99
Study tools
KK using Roi Et soilCM using San Sai soil
NSPT glutinous riceRD23 non-glutinous rice
Predicted Regional GCM scenario weather
dataKK, CM
1985-19992006-2025
VS
+
CERES-Rice
GFDL-MK3 climate model
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Scenario 1: 1985-1999Irrigation Irrigated
RD23 NSPT
MK3MK3WTH
Rainfed
RD23 NSPT
MK3MK3WTH
Rice variety
Weather data
Scenario 1 = 1xCO2 b/w 1985-1999 Using WTH & MK3
WTH WTH
Scenario 2 = 2xCO2 b/w 2006-2025 Using MK3
1985 1999
2006 2025 2035 2045 2055 2064
Urea
Green manure
WTH
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Scenario 2: 2006-2025Irrigation Irrigated
RD23 NSPT
MK3MK3
Rainfed
RD23 NSPT
MK3MK3
Rice variety
Weather data
Scenario 2 = 2xCO2 b/w 2006-2025 using MK3
1985 1999
2006 2025 2035 2045 2055 2064
Urea 0, 37.5, 75 kg ha-1 0.5, 2, 4 Mg ha-1
Total of 12 management rice production strategies
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Scenario 1 between 1985-1999
ProvincesWaterRice variety WTH MK3 OAE
KKC 2.20 0.89 1.67
RD 23. 2.63 1.00 1.67
NSPT 2.58 2.48 1.67
3.08 3.26 1.67
CNX NSPT 3.54 2.64 3.33
4.20 2.98 3.33
NSPT 4.03 3.98 3.33
4.77 5.16 3.33
Rainfed
Rainfed
Irrigated
Irrigated
RD 23
RD 23
RD 23
NSPT
Rice yield (Mg ha-1)
RMSE 1.00 1.03
RMSE 0.91 1.04
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Rainfall between 1980-2030
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
๒๕๒๓1980
๒๕๓๓1990
๒๕๔๓2000
๒๕๕๓2010
๒๕๖๓2020
๒๕๗๓2030
CNX
KKC
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Scenario 2 b/w 2006-2024
Rainfed Irrigated
0 37.5 75 0 37.5 75
NSPT 0.78 1.50 1.99 1.71 2.69 3.04
Rice yield at KKC (Mg ha-1)
Rice var GM (kg ha-1)
6000
500 0.74 1.48 1.97 1.54 2.53 2.89
RD23 0.90 1.76 2.35 2.27 3.58 4.016000
500 0.84 1.73 2.33 1.96 3.31 3.76
Urea (kg ha-1) Urea (kg ha-1)
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Scenario 2 b/w 2006-2024
Rainfed Irrigated
0 37.5 75 0 37.5 75
NSPT 5.60 5.73 5.94 7.74 7.86 8.04
Rice yield at CNX (Mg ha-1)
Rice var GM (kg ha-1)
6000
500 2.70 3.43 4.07 3.83 4.37 4.87
RD23 6.56 6.67 6.89 9.88 10.00 10.216000
500 3.20 4.24 5.09 1.96 5.78 6.43
Urea (kg ha-1) Urea (kg ha-1)
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Impacts of the changes
• At CNX, simulated rice yields appeared to be higher than the current level.
• At KKC, simulated rice yields appeared to be lower than the current level.
• Flooding and soil erosion
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Impacts of high rainfall
• Too much moisture in harvested products, use more energy to dry
• More leaching
• Less efficiency of chemical fertilizer
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Summary
• It is possible to use a process-oriented rice model to simulate the production under various climatic, edaphic, and management conditions
• Slight impact on rice production during the next 20 years, except much higher rainfall volume in CNX areas.
• Need to develop warning systems.