atmospheric research using risk assessment to inform adaptation roger n. jones in-session workshop...

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Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To, Climate Change Hotel Maritim, Bonn, Germany 18 June 2004

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Page 1: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation

Roger N. Jones

In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To, Climate Change

Hotel Maritim, Bonn, Germany

18 June 2004

Page 2: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Risk

Can be broadly defined as the likelihood of an adverse event or outcome

How does this relate to Article 2 of the UNFCCC?

Page 3: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Article 2 UNFCCC

Aims to prevent dangerous

anthropogenic climate change

by stabilising greenhouse gas emissions,

thus allowing

Ecosystems to adapt naturally

Food security to be maintained

Sustainable development to proceed

Hazard

Consequence

Management

criteria

Through adaptation and mitigationManagem

ent options

Page 4: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Scales of “dangerous” climate change

Global thresholds of criticality – Grounded ice sheet melts, – N. Hemisphere flips to cold conditions, – Amazon wilts and burns due to heat and drought

Global in scale but very unlikely to occur ( with T)

Local thresholds of criticalityAny activity where: – the harm caused exceeds given levels of tolerance – impacts become non-viable with no reasonable substitute

Local in scale, number and severity increasing with T,benefits fewer with T

Page 5: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Linking climate to adaptation over time

Climate system

Impacted activity

Socio-economicsystem

Current climate

Future climate

Future adaptations

Current adaptations

Page 6: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Measuring the ability to cope

Loss Profit

Profit

Loss

Loss

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable Probability

Critical Threshold

Critical Threshold

CopingRange

Page 7: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Coping under climate change

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Stationary Climate & Coping Range

Changing Climate

Planning Horizon

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Adaptation

Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Stationary Climate & Coping Range

Changing Climate

Planning Horizon

CopingRange

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Adaptation

Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range

Page 8: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Adapting through the coping range

Assess risk

Manage risk

No adaptation

Autonomous adaptation

Critical risk

Coping range → Adaptive capacity

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigative capacity ←

Danger

Page 9: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Adapting (generic)Improve technology access

Institutional reform

Improved equity

Access to information

Build social capital

Access to wealth creation

Adapting (specific)Mainstreaming adaptation

Natural resource management

New technology

Disaster planning

Retrofit existing structures

Build resilience/resistance

Autonomous adaptation

Assess risk

Manage risk

No adaptation

Autonomous adaptation

Critical risk

Coping range → Adaptive capacity

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigative capacity ←

Danger

Adapting (transformative)Replace activity

Abandon activity

Transform activity

Page 10: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Different activities have different adaptive capacities

Coral Reefs

Developed Country Agriculture

Developing Country Agriculture

Protected Coastal Infrastructure

Page 11: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Adaptation and mitigation

• Adaptation increases the coping range through biological and social means

• Mitigation reduces the magnitude and frequency of greenhouse-related climate hazards

Therefore, they are complementary, not interchangeable.

They also reduce different areas of climate uncertainty

Page 12: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Some major methods

1. Natural hazards methodRisk = Hazard ×Vulnerability(what are the likely damages?)

2. Vulnerability-based methodRisk = Probability × Consequence(what is the likelihood of exceeding a given state of

vulnerability?)

3. Policy assessmentDoes a given policy increase or decrease risk under

climate change?

Page 13: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Selecting a method

Natural Hazard• Probabilities of hazard

constrained

• Main drivers known

• Chain of consequences understood

• P(Hazard) × Consequences

Exploratory

Vulnerability• Probabilities not

constrained

• Many drivers

• Multiple pathways and feedbacks

• P(Vulnerability)

e.g. critical threshold exceedance

Normative

Page 14: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Likelihood of threshold exceedance

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 100

Probability exceedance

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 5

Probability density

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Year

Tem

pera

ture

Incr

ease

(°C

)

2.5°C Threshold

1°C Threshold

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Year

Sea

Lev

el R

ise

(cm

) 75cm Threshold

25cm Threshold

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 6

Probability density

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100

Probability exceedance

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 100

Probability exceedance

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 5

Probability density

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Year

Tem

pera

ture

Incr

ease

(°C

)

2.5°C Threshold

1°C Threshold

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Year

Sea

Lev

el R

ise

(cm

) 75cm Threshold

25cm Threshold

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 6

Probability density

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 100

Probability exceedance

Page 15: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Almost certain

Highly likely

Least likely

Low probability, extreme outcomes

Damage to the most sensitive, many benefits

Increased damage to

many systems, fewer benefits

Considerable damage to most

systems

Moderately likely

Probability Consequence

Core benefits of adaptation and mitigation

Probability – the likelihood of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warmingConsequence – the effect of reaching or exceeding a given level of global warming

Risk = Probability × Consequence

Vulnerable to current climate

Happening now

Page 16: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Activities most at risk

Those where • critical thresholds are exceeded at low

levels of global warming, • adaptive capacity is low and/or

adaptation is prohibitively expensive, difficult or unknown and

• the consequences of exceeding those thresholds are judged to be serious

Page 17: Atmospheric Research Using Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Roger N. Jones In-session Workshop on Impacts Of, and Vulnerability and Adaptation To,

Atmospheric Research

Resources

• UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework

www.undp.org/cc/apf.htm

• UKCIP Willow and Connell (2003)

www.ukcip.org.uk/risk_uncert