atmospheric composition modelling · 2018-04-04 · composition change/climate change/radiative...
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Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 1
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Atmospheric Composition Modelling
Peter van Velthoven
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 2
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Overview
• Chemistry-transport modelling with TM(Transport Model )version4/5
• Stratosphere-troposphere interactions
• Air pollution modelling
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 3
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
QuantityVolume
Emissions ( X sources)
Deposition (X sinks)
Chemical transformation ( X sources and/or sinks)
Horizontal transport
Vertical transport
Height of the ABL
= Mixing ratio trace gas x, time evolution of Cx ?
Chemistry Transport Modelling, CTM
Cx =
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 4
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
The TM chemistry transport modelTM4: global model,TM5: zoom option
• Coupled to ECMWF meteorology
• Information on wind, temperature, humidity, clouds, precipitation, convection
• Tropospheric chemistry module
• Aerosol module
• Parametrisation of convection
• Integrated stratosphere-troposphere chemistrymodule with detailed PSC microphysics
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 5
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
TM5: high resolution in regions of interest (zoom)
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 6
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Background stratospheric ozone chemistry Chapman mechanismOzone formation:
O2 + hν O + O (λ < 240 nm)O + O2 + M O3 + M
fastM stabilizes excited O3 by collision
Ozone destruction
O3+ hν + M O2 + O + M (λ < 320nm) fast
O3 + O 2O2
Chemical familyOx= O+O3 is conserved
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 7
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Background stratospheric ozone chemistryChapman mechanism
The sink given by the Chapman theory is too smallLife time Reaction constants O3 distribution
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 8
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Background stratospheric ozone chemistry Catalytic ozone loss cycles
X + O3 XO + O2
O + XO O2 + X
------------------
Net: O + O3 2O2
X = Ox, NO, HO, Cl, or Br
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 9
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Stratosphere-troposphere chemistry
F11
CLOx
PSC
O3
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 10
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
IPCC/ACCENT scenario calculations
Year 2000 2030 IIASA CLE
2030 IIASA MFR
2030 SRES A2
Nitrogen dioxide, NO2
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 11
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
IPCC/ACCENT scenario calculations
Surface ozone
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 12
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Composition change/climate change/radiative forcing
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 13
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
How is radiative forcing calculated?
Emission inventories
Observations + future scenariosEmission time series
Atmospheric Chemistry ModelAtmospheric model (GCM)
Concentration time series
Radiative-Convective Model
Radiative forcing
Surface temperature time series
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 14
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Example: Climate sensitivity of ozone changes
∆T ≈ λ ∆F
It matters where greenhouse gas concentrations change !
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 15
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Impact of aviation, shipping road traffic emissions on composition and climate
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 16
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Chemistry transport modelling: parametrisation of convectionCoupling between convection and chemistry
JJA ozone Diagnosed convection
Ozone difference (%) Diagnosed-Archived convection
Differences up to ~20% !
Ph.D. thesis Olivié
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DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Stratosphere-troposphere exchange from ERA40 • Chemistry-transport
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 18
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Tropospheric ozone formation Oxidation of hydrocarbons and CO
CO + OH CO2 + HH + O2 + M HO2 + MHO2 + NO OH + NO2NO2 + hν NO + O ( λ < 420 nm)O + O2 + M O3 + M------------------Net: CO + 2O2 + hν O3+ CO2
NOx = NO+NO2 catalyses ozone production
[OH] determines the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere
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DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Tropospheric ozone Detailed chemical budget
10%other10%OH + O3
40%HO2 + O3
40%H2O + O(1D)
Ozone loss
10%RO2 + NO (higher hydrocarbons)
20%CH3O2 + NO (methane)70%HO2 + NOContributionOzone production
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 20
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Tropospheric chemistry-climate coupling: changes in oxidation capacity
Chemical reanalysis of OH based on ERA15 (1979-1993)Dentener et al. (2003)
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 21
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Polar stratospheric ozone by assimilation in TM3 model
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DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Troposphere: Troposphere: Air pollution modellingAir pollution modelling
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 23
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
AAirir--qualityquality forecastsforecasts and and observationsobservationsover the over the NetherlandsNetherlands
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 24
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Satellite
Surface network
Assimilation
Air qualityprediction
Model
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DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
absorptionabsorption
Satellite measurements: GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI
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DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 27
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Combined retrieval - modelling - assimilation approach to SCIA NO2
Slant column retrievalby BIRA-IASB
Tropospheric column retrieval by KNMIAccounting for:• Clouds• Surface albedo• Profile shape• Stratosphere• T-dep cross sections
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 28
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Satellite versus ground-based measurementsO
MI v
ersu
s R
IVM
LM
L
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 29
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Chimère model
Developed in FranceR. Vautard, H. Schmidt, L. Menut, M. Beekman, N. Blond, ... )Operational air-quality forecasts: http://www.prevair.org/
Model ingredients (setup at KNMI):• MELCHIOR chemistry (82 species, 333 reactions) • EMEP emissions• ECMWF meteorological analyses• 15 vertical layers, surface - 200 hPa• Boundary conditions on concentrations trace gases from global CTMMOZART monthly-mean climatology
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 30
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
SCIAMACHY vs. Chimère: yearly mean
Yearly-mean bias = 0.2 1015 molec cm-2, RMS 2.9, correl.coeff. 0.73Cloud-free pixels
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 31
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
SCIAMACHY vs. Chimère: 27 Feb 2004
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DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
OMI vs. Chimère
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 33
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Chimère vs surface observations RIVM: Jan-Jul 2003
- surfaceobservation
- Chimère
Netherlands:(rural stations)Bias 0.1 ppbRMS 7.2 ppbCorrel. 0.66
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 34
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Synergy: Surface - Chimère - SCIAMACHY
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 35
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Smog event in the Netherlands: 24 June
Prediction withChimère model
Day4 - L5 Atmospheric modelling 2 Hennie Kelder 36
DRAGON ADVANCED TRAINING COURSE IN ATMOSPHERE REMOTE SENSING
Summary
• Overview of chemistry-transport modelling
• Stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry
• Air pollution modelling