[at] the patterns of luxury fall 2014

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The Patterns of LuxuryAnalyzing Trends Fall 2014

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what is luxury?what words do you associate?

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In the 14th century, luxury was originally a pejorative word, denoting ‘sinful self-indulgence’.

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http://www.word-origins.com/definition/word.html

http://www.word-origins.com/definition/word.html

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"luxury is not the opposite of poverty; it is the opposite of vulgarity."

COCO CHANEL

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we don’t need it But it gets interwoven into our own sense of self expression.

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Luxury reflects us Can we look ourselves in the mirror and feel comfortable with our expression of it?

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luxury

what does luxury mean today?

what associations can you find by running a simple google search?

485,000,000 results

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the word means too many things to hold any true value todaythe hyperbole

becomes noise

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PAST PRESENT FUTURE

time

TREND FORCES GOVERNMENT / TECHNOLOGY / SOCIETY/ RESOURCES

PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR CULTURE / EXPRESSION / INFLUENCE

MACRO TREND SUSTAINED SHIFTS

How can we forecast the future of luxury?

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INDEX INDEX INDEX

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identifying the trend forces that have shifted the story...

technology

economics

social shifts


language

perceptioncodes INDEX

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recession reveals economic fallacies

The recession has left us acutely aware of the fallacies of finance and the need for sustainability.

ASPIRATION AUSTERITY

IMAGE: All rights reserved by Fabio Suenaga (on Flickr)

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FUELED BY BORROWED

MONEY

time

FUELED BY VALUE BUBBLES

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technology challenges control

A catalyst for stories and participation... and what people expect to happen.

IMAGE: Frog Design

TRANSPARENCY ACCESS

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time

FUELS EMPOWERED CONSUMERS

CHALLENGES BRAND CONTROL

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globalization has broadened the narrative

More than half of the growth in global demand for imports is now originating in developing countries.

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OUTSOURCE GROWTH MARKET

time


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emerging markets evolve into creative economies

outsourcing has fueled a culture of creative innovation as markets expand middle class consumption

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TREND FORCES

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guilt

rank

perfection

luxury’s four codes of meaning

These four codes reflect a human centered way meaning operates in the culture as a whole.

freedom

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rankconsumption as status

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Wall Street (1987)

“...greed--for lack of a better word--is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.

1980s Greed economics

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rank

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Glengary Glen Ross (1992)

1990s The culture of keeping up.

“you drove a Hyundai to get here tonight, I drove an eighty thousand dollar BMW.” (brands as bragging rights)

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rank

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A counterfeit economy emerges ...signals of increased access

rank

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McMansions frame a new aspiration

...and set the framework for the future economic bubble

rank

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Counterfeits & McMansions as Ngrams

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how informed are you?

Maestro Dobel tequila’s small batch production is noted by handwritten date and bottle numbers, as well as distiller name.

rank knowledge

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EMERGENT CODE

RESIDUAL CODE

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Minivans in ChinaGM sells a model in China so popular with executives that it’s often lined up outside galas and high-end restaurants.

rank knowledge

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EMERGENT CODE

RESIDUAL CODE

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rank evolves to stealth

Lufthansa's First Class Terminal (FCT) is an independent terminal allows one to barely sees the travelers in other classes.

rank stealth

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EMERGENT CODE

RESIDUAL CODE

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pursuit of excellence (arete) was paramount. such aspiration required effort, discipline and intelligence.stealth is about

activating intangiblesThe things we crave most are not always what we can see and touch.

Musician Seal and his Vertu Constellation Quest

rank stealth

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EMERGENT CODE

RESIDUAL CODE

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gold and fur return in 2014

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rank viceEMERGENT

CODERESIDUAL

CODE

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opulence on view again

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George Clooney and Amal Alamuddin get married

rank powerEMERGENT

CODERESIDUAL

CODE

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Guiltconsumption as awareness

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guilt supplants rank as recession hits in 2008

Net-A-Porter offers brown bag service to keep your purchases less conspicuous

guiltrankEMERGENT

CODERESIDUAL

CODE

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We now seek power that enables change.

"Power is the ability to produce intended effects." --Bertrand Russell, 1938

Rethinking power

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recession triggers existential moments for brands

Louis Vuitton looks to deepen their core meaning

guiltEMERGENT

CODE

originsEMERGENT

CODE

2010

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No gifts, please. Britian’s Prince William & Princess Kate opted for charitable donations. Contrasts to the Charles and Diana wedding of the 80s.

expressions of power on view

guilt restraintEMERGENT

CODERESIDUAL CODE

2011

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the noise of meaningless aspiration is replaced with the pursuit of wanting to feel where we are.

in search of the opposite of “stuff”

Beresheet Hotel, Israel

guilt restraint

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EMERGENT CODERESIDUAL

CODE

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brand restraint is about fixing the small things

Gucci’s initiative toward FSC paper and cutting down on excess packaging is only one angle of a larger sustainability campaign.

guilt restraint

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EMERGENT CODE

RESIDUAL CODE

2011

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“don’t buy my collection”"I wish they wouldn't buy this new collection," she added. "Don't buy any clothes for ages until you really have to."

guilt restraintEMERGENT

CODERESIDUAL CODE

2014

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Working within local parameters makes a profound statement of commitment.

awareness of the context you are in

Two New York culinary refugees set up a rustic cocina called Hartwood in Tulum, Mexico, using local meats, seafood and produce cooked in an outdoor open kitchen.guilt aware

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EMERGENT CODE

RESIDUAL CODE

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building a reconnection to the source

Think Global Taste Local is a food hunting company presenting the best gastronomic products from small regional companies.

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guilt awareEMERGENT

CODERESIDUAL

CODE

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a relentless pursuit of perfecting the process by which an object is crafted.

Perfection

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Pursuit of excellence (arete) was paramount. such aspiration required effort, discipline and intelligence.

Greek ideals have new relevance

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control of process is critical

Chanel buys seven of the most specialized ateliers in Paris, ensuring continuation of the house's own couture techniques.

perfection craft

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EMERGENT CODE

RESIDUAL CODE

2010

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Dolce & Gabbana announced that it was folding its younger, less expensive D&G brand into its high-end line.

perfection’s foundation is focus

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perfection focusEMERGENT

CODERESIDUAL CODE

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give me something no on else has had

The proposed 432 Park condo will be the tallest building in the Western Hemisphere.

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perfection transcendentEMERGENT

CODERESIDUAL

CODE

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The pursuit of personal acquisitions and creative accomplishments.

Freedom

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the power of one

“Fashion is not something that exists in dresses only. Fashion is in the sky, in the street, fashion has to do with ideas, the way we live, what is happening”

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Debates continue over who owns IP, why and how. the question is: will stricter IP law in luxury inhibit creativity and embolden the better financed?

IP eclipses open source sensibility

The Council of Fashion Designers of America has supported congressional efforts to formulate protection specific to fashion designs.

freedom control

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EMERGENT CODE

RESIDUAL CODE

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We question the sharing of intellectual property and undermine the results of collaborative efforts. yet, open source is as old as humanity.

we began as open source culture

freedom control

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EMERGENT CODE

RESIDUAL CODE

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freedom and confidence to mix high and low

A well-positioned Missoni collaboration for Target, replete with Margherita Missoni, was so coveted it crashed Target’s website.

freedom control

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EMERGENT CODE

RESIDUAL CODE

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millennials perception of luxury is evolving

Gen Y shoppers are increasing their spending with full-price luxury retailers. Gen Y’s annual spending power exceeds $200 billion and they also influence another $50 billion in purchases.

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PAST PRESENT FUTURE

time


PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR CULTURE / EXPRESSION / INFLUENCE

MACRO TREND SUSTAINED SHIFTS

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Group Exercise

source 2 advertising examples of luxury’s meaning

analyze the advertisement as an index of luxury’s meaning

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see you next week

[at] the patterns of luxury fall 2014

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