at scale: briefing to deputy under secretary adam cohen ...h2 at scale doe s4 briefing 040416 1...

H2 at Scale DOE S4 Briefing 040416 1

Forrestal Building April 4, 2016 Washington, D.C.

Briefing to Deputy Under Secretary Adam Cohen

H2at Scale: Deeply Decarbonizing Our Energy System

Bryan Pivovar: NREL

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. NREL/PR-5900-66246


Motivation - Major Administration Energy Goals


Problem

• Climate change deep decarbonization o Limited options

• Multi-sector challenges o Transportation o Industrial o Grid

• Renewable challenges o Variable o Concurrent generation

Over half of CO2 emissions from industrial and transportation sectors

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

PV Penetration and Hour

Gen

erat

ion

(MW

)

PV

GasTurbinePumpedStorageHydro

CombinedCycleImports

Coal

Nuclear

Wind

Geo

Exports

Base 2% 6% 10% (no PV)

Denholm et al. 2008


Climate Change Real Climate Change Impact Requires

Deep Decarbonization


H2@scale can enable increased renewable penetration that:

Decreases 45% of all U.S. carbon emissions by 2050


Broad Cross-Sector Impacts

• Grid • Transportation • Industrial Applications • Buildings

While also improving Energy Security and Domestic Economy


Hydrogen, the Clean, Flexible Energy Carrier


RE Grid plus battery storage Future H2 at Scale Energy System


BAU vs. High RE/H2 – Energy Differences*

* Only differences >1.5 quad shown for clarity purposes, case study data included in backup slides


BAU vs. High RE/H2 – CO2 Emissions

45% reduction in CO2 emissions Grid 75%, Transportation 25%, Industrial 25%


H2 @ Scale Technical Framework Renewable Energy Conversion, Storage, and Use

H2 Storage and Distribution

Development of reliable, efficient,

and economic storage and

distribution of hydrogen (energy).

Low and High Temperature H2 Generation

H2 End Use

Development of low cost,

durable, and intermittent H2

generation.

Development of thermally

integrated, low cost, reliable,

and efficient H2 generation.

H2 as a game changing energy

carrying currency,

revolutionizing industry and the

energy sector.


H2 at Scale Framework Intermittent Hydrogen Deeply Decarbonizing our Energy System

Low T generation High T generation H2 Storage and Distribution H2 End use

Future Electrical Grid

Analysis

Foundational Science

• Develop non-noble metals OER catalyst

• Low-cost durable high-conductivity membranes

• Develop alkaline membranes enabling noble metal replacement

• Low-cost, corrosion resistant, thin film metal coatings

• Develop durable systems for intermittent operation

• Durable corrosion resistant conductive materials

• Front end controls for thermal management with cyclic operation

• Technologies for high temperature thermal storage

• CO2 electrochemical reduction

• System integration

• GWh-month scale geologic storage

• Develop novel materials and processes for chemical Storage

• Integration with renewable grid/System optimization

• Novel compression/liquefaction technologies

• Leak Detection/ Purification

• Material compatibility for pipelines and compressors

• Process heat integration with intermittent hydrogen generation

• New process chemistry with hydrogen as reductant

• Ammonia production beyond Haber Bosch

• Hydrogen/ hydrogen-rich combustion


Improving the Economics of Renewable H2

Intermittent integration

Intermittent integration

R&D Advances

Fuel Cell R&D has decreased projected costs by 80%

Steam Methane

Reforming (SMR)


H2 at Scale Roadmap


How much will we need?

Phase Funding Activities

I $100M/3 yrs

R&D and systems solutions development for foundational technologies (H2 generation including basic and applied science, industrial process opportunities for clean H2 utilization)

II $200M/4 yrs

Development and demonstration of at least 2 viable approaches

III $200M/4 yrs

Systems integration and demonstration at scale enabling renewables (pilot scale/equivalent to BETO IBR or battery manufacturing plant funding)


Back Up Slides

H2 at Scale Big Ideas III Workshop 3/8/16 17

H2 Demand

Potential growth of hydrogen markets, increasing importance in the future (chicken and egg problem)

Hydrogen Demand Estimates in 2050

Quads

Hydrogen for direct use in LDVs 3.2

Hydrogen for direct use in HDVs 0.5

Hydrogen for biofuel upgrading 0.4

Hydrogen for oil refining 0.4

Ammonia production 2.5

Steel refining 1.0

Total 7.9 0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2014 Status AEO Reference Case(2040)

Future HydrogenScenario

Annu

al H

ydro

gen

Use

(Qua

d)

Hydrogen Production (quad)

Vehicle sales by vehicle technology with midrange technology assumptions and low-carbon production of hydrogen, fuel cell vehicle subsidies, and additional incentives. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/18264/transitions-to-alternative-vehicles-and-fuels

http://www.nap.edu/catalog/18264/transitions-to-alternative-vehicles-and-fuels


DOE Programs Impact: EERE (FCTO, Solar, Wind, AMO); OE/Grid; NE; FE; SC

Specific H2 Production Technology Needs • PEM electrolysis

- Cell/Stack Components - Power electronics/BOP

• Advanced alkaline electrolysis (membranes) • Solid oxide electrolysis/thermal chemical

- Oxide conducting materials - Thermal integration

Research Priorities • Durability for intermittent operation • Lower cost electrolysis • Manufacturing at scale • Thermal integration

Cost Distribution

Low and High T H2 Generation


H2 Storage and Distribution

DOE Programs Impact: EERE (FCTO, AMO); OE, FE; SC

Specific Technology Needs • Hydrogen Storage

- Chemical/metal hydrides - Materials systems - Catalysis

- Physical Storage - Geologic - Manufactured

• Direct Electro-Chemical Hydride Conversion

• Distribution

- Compression - Liquefaction - Materials Compatibility (Hydrogen Embrittlement) - Leak Detection/Repair - Hydrogen Contamination/Purification - Materials Compatibility - Grid Integration/Optimization

Research Priorities • Development of storage/delivery

systems for large-scale grid and industrial use

• Assessment of potential for integration with existing technology and infrastructure

• System analysis, integration and optimization


H2 End Use

DOE Programs Impact: EERE (AMO, FCTO, Wind/Solar); NE; FE; ARPA-E; SC

Specific H2 Utilization Technology Needs • Ammonia production

- Distributed/modular • Refineries and Biofuels

- Process integration • Metals and glass making

- Game changing direct reduction - Reducing gases for annealing/ - tempering

• Combustion Processes - Burner design and testing - Flame chemistry impacts - Use of oxygen

• H2 Heat Pumps - Waste heat recovery - Heat amplification / cooling

Research Priorities • New process chemistry with H2 used as a reductant

- Chemical, Fuels, Metals Production • Process efficiency improvement

- Industry and power systems • Process heat integration with

intermittent H2 generation • H2 / H2-rich flame modeling


Foundational Science

Numerous chemistry/ materials issues: Catalysis/Reactions Systems far from equilibrium Confined catalysis Corrosion Detection and understanding of rare events Material interactions (Embrittlement) User facilities SNS, light sources, nanocenters, microscopy ACSR and advanced computing Big data Algorithms for prediction multiscale physics JCAP leveraged science MGI (expansion) dissolution, kinetics, solvents

Fundamental understanding of potentially revolutionary technologies for other chemical bond energy storage/conversion.


Research & Development Priorities • Systems analysis • Systems engineering • Systems design and demo

Grid Integration Specific Grid Integration Technology Needs

• Affordability • Modest capital investment for

production and storage • Renewable hydrogen source for

marketplace revenue • Flexibility- Scalable, deployable, multiple

renewable hydrogen markets • Reliability

• Stable, sufficient power source • Inherently integrated element of grid

• Resilience- Distributed production and storage systems—large storage options

• Sustainability- Enable stable grid with abundant renewables-demand/response

• Security- Enable domestic, renewable energy resource


Analysis

Analysis Priorities • Specifying the role of hydrogen in

deep decarbonization of the U.S. energy sector

• Understanding of drivers impacting energy sector evolution

• Quantification of hydrogen potential to meet seasonal electricity storage requirements

• Technoeconomic analysis • Life cycle analysis

Specific Analysis Needs • Role of hydrogen within energy sector

- Energy sector evolution / capacity expansion analysis to identify key opportunities for hydrogen to support power, gas, industrial, and transportation sectors

- Grid operations co-optimization with hydrogen providing grid support on short and long time-frames and on regional and national scales

- Analysis of the hydrogen’s benefits resilience, reliability, and robustness

• Technoeconomic analysis to support R&D directionin hydrogen generation, storage & distribution, and end use

• Life cycle analysis to identify opportunities to reduce GHG and criteria pollutant emissions


Cross-Office Collaborations R&D

Focus Research Activities

DOE Programs

Impact

Ammonia

• Modular Plants • Catalyst R&D • Process intensification • Ammonia Fuel Cells

ARPA-E AMO FCTO

FE

Decrease cost of NH3 production >25% Improve process efficiency Improve NH3 handling safety

Refineries

• Electrolysis and refinery heat integration

• H2 and O2 combustion • Integrated coke gasification • NE &RE energy utilization

FE FCTO AMO

NE & RE

>75% GHG footprint reduction Facilitate heavy crude refining Coke by-product management Expand markets for RE & NE

Chemicals

• Catalyst R&D for H2-dependent chemicals

• CO2 reduction chemistry • Process intensification • Hybrid electricity/chemicals

ARPA-E AMO

NE & RE FCTO

Sustainable chemicals production Pathway to CO2 utilization Domestic workforce with

competitive manufacturing

Biofuels

• Modular plants for distributed production

• H2 (and O2) incorporation in bio-refineries

BTO VTO

NE & RE FCTO

Increase biofuels potential production >30% 100% zero-emissions biofuels Expand markets for local RE

Metals & Glass

Refining

• Direct reduction of iron process development

• Metals annealing/tempering • Materials codification

ARPA-E AMO

SC

10x increase in U.S. steel production with associated heavy manufacturing >5% impact on world GHG

Combustion Processes

• Flame chemistry and heat transfer studies

• Burner and turbine testing

ARPA-E AMO

FE

Movement toward Zero-emissions process heating Clean power generation

H2 Heat Pumps

• Low temperature heat use • Industrial and residential

energy efficiency studies • Power systems integration

ARPA-E AMO

FE

5% efficiency improvement for manufacturing industries 10% efficiency improvement

for power generation turbines >50% cooling water reduction

Co-Electrolysis

Steam

CO2

CO + H2

O2

Power


Why Now?

Renewable energy cheaper, use increasing, running into a tipping point Curtailment will lead to an abundance of low value electrons, and we need

solutions that will service our multi-sector demands

Denholm, P.; M. O'Connell; G. Brinkman; J. Jorgenson (2015) Overgeneration from Solar Energy in California: A Field Guide to the Duck Chart. NREL/TP-6A20-65023


Updated H2 at Scale Big Idea Teams/Structure

Steering Committee: Bryan Pivovar (lead, NREL), Amgad Elgowainy (ANL), Richard Boardman (INL), Adam Weber

(LBNL), Salvador Aceves (LLNL), Rod Borup (LANL), Mark Ruth (NREL), David Wood

(ORNL), Jamie Holladay (PNNL), Art Pontau (SNL), Don Anton (SRNL)

Low T Generation:

Rod Borup (lead, LANL); Jamie

Holladay (co-lead, PNNL); Christopher San Marchi (SNL);

Hector Colon Mercado (SRNL);

Kevin Harrison (NREL); Ted Krause (ANL); Adam Weber (LBNL); David Wood

(ORNL)

High T Generation:

Jamie Holladay (lead, PNNL); Jim

O'Brien (INL); Carl Stoots (INL); Mike

Penev (NREL); TBD

Industrial Utilization:

Richard Boardman (lead, INL); Don Anton (SRNL);

Amgad Elgowainy (ANL); Bob Hwang

(SNL); Mark Bearden (PNNL); Mark Ruth

(NREL); Colin McMillan (NREL);

Ting He (INL); Michael Glazoff (INL); Art Pontau

(SNL); Kriston Brooks (PNNL); Jamie

Holladay (PNNL); Christopher San

Marchi (SNL); Mary Biddy (NREL)

Storage and Distribution:

Don Anton (lead, SRNL);

TBD: San Marchi SNL Brooks PNNL Genet NREL

Semelsberger LANL Aceves LLNL

Gennett, Thomas NREL ; jeff long LBL; Craig Brown NIST;

Allendorf, Mark SNL; Mark Bowden PNNL;

tom autrey PNNL

Grid: Art Pontau (lead,

SNL); Art Anderson (NREL); Chris San

Marchi (SNL); Charles Hanley (SNL); Michael Kintner-Meyer (PNNL); Jamie

Holladay (PNNL); Rob Hovsapian (INL)

Fundamental Science:

Adam Weber(lead, LBL); Voja

Stamekovic (ANL)

TBD (SLAC); TBD (Ames)

Analysis: Mark Ruth (lead,

NREL); Amgad Elgowainy (co-lead, ANL); Josh Eichman (NREL); Joe Cordaro

(SRNL); Salvador Aceves (LLNL); Max Wei (LBNL); Karen Studarus (PNNL); Todd West (SNL);

Steve Wach (SRNL); Richard Boardman

(INL); David Tamburello (SRNL);

Suzanne Singer (LLNL)

SLAC and Ames have expressed desire to be added. BNL?


• Today’s electrolysis technology (scaled up) is not cost competitive with today’s SMR.

• This is expected—it’s driven by electricity cost tied to burning fossil fuels and two inefficient processes.

Hydrogen Production (Current)

H2A Analysis, Josh Eichman, NREL


Energy Flow 2040 Business as Usual


Energy Flows – 2050 High RE/H2


Germany already limiting RE penetration rate


Hydrogen Value Proposition for RE Penetration

Changes in the Economic Value of Variable Generation at High Penetration Levels: A Pilot Case Study of California Andrew Mills and Ryan Wiser, June 2012, http://eetd.lbl.gov/EA/EMP

Mar

gina

l Eco

nom

ic V

alue

($/M

Wh)

100 Single-Axis PV Avg. DA Wholesale Price

80

60

40

20

0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

PV Penetration (% Annual Load)

DEMAND RESPONSE AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY ROADMAP, CAISO, 2013

• Transient concerns.

• Decreasing value with penetration.


What happens to time of day pricing

• More low value electrons than high need costs

• Negative pricing of electrons can occur.

Source: Josh Eichman, NREL

DA – Day Ahead RT – Real Time LTPP - Long Term Procurement Plan

Source: Mark Ruth, NREL (PLEXOS: 20% solar, 10% wind) Source: Mark Ruth, NREL (PLEXOS: 22% PV, 11% wind)


Resulting variable generation curtailment

Used and curtailed VG in California on March 29 in a scenario with 11% annual wind and 11% annual solar

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

Frac

tion

of D

aily

Sol

ar E

nerg

y Cu

rtai

led

34

California and Germany

California • 400 km2 • 40 million

people • 46GW Peak

Load • 10GW Solar • 6GW Wind • 18% solar

capacity factor

Germany • 357 km2 • 80 million

people • 75GW Peak

Load • 38GW Solar • 32GW Wind • 10% Solar

capacity factor


Storage needs with increase RE penetration

RE Futures Study

36 | Fuel Cell Technologies Program Source: US DOE 5/11/2016 eere.energy.gov

Comparison between Energy Storage Options

Battery systems Power and Energy scale together More energy storage = more batteries Marginal cost of storage capacity is $1400/kWh

Hydrogen systems Power and energy scale separately More energy storage = more tanks only $140/kWh

Energy (kWhr)

Energy (kWhr)

Pow

er (k

W)

Pow

er (k

W)

10X

Source: Hydrogenics


Examples – Hydrogen vs. Batteries

Source: Hydrogenics

Factor Battery System

Difference Hydrogen System

Net Energy Cost

$1.69 2.5X + $0.68

Incremental Storage Cost

$1400 - $850/kWh

10x + $50-140/kWh

% of Time Full 71% 1.6x + 43%

Wind Energy Wasted (1)

7.9/12.3 (64%)

2.6x + 2.8/10.9 (25%)

Capital Cost 69M$ 2.5x + 28M

Total Life Cycle Cost

91M$ 2.6x + 36.5M$

Net System Efficiency

35% 8% + 39%

Environmental Impact

D + O

Competitive Analysis vs. Battery Storage Hydrogen vs. LiOH Battery Solution


Energy Storage

Capacity, Not Efficiency a Larger Driver for Renewable Storage

Source: Hydrogenics

Many Jobs, Many Solutions


Energy Storage Preliminary Analysis

Only Long-Term H2 Storage competes in single day cycling

But multi-day energy storage will likely be necessary in a high renewables penetration scenario, if there is more value placed on otherwise curtailed renewable resources due to:

• Higher Renewable Portfolio Standards • Carbon Dioxide Emission Controls

Figure 1. Price of on-Peak electricity for various below-ground H2 & CAES storage and battery storage

options with one-day storage and 10% "free" (stranded) energy for a 10MW output over 4 hours (40MWh/day) & NG = $5/MBTU (for CAES) [All battery & CAES costs are based on the lower EPRI estimates.]

Source: Sandy Thomas

Need to understand when there is economic value for longer storage

times under high penetration renewables

scenarios

H2 at Scale TWG Update 011916 40

Storage will need to compete with flexible generation on economics and probably emissions. Efficiency challenges exist, but when considering renewable electrons, it is economics, not efficiency, that is the critical metric. Hydrogen goes beyond other technologies by providing a sink for grid electrons rather than a just a capacitor.

Non-energy values (e.g., ancillary services, capacity) are not included in these analyses but are likely to benefit storage as compared to combustion turbines (see Denholm, et all “The Relative Economic Merits of Storage and Combustion Turbines for Meeting Peak Capacity Requirements under Increased Penetrations of Solar Photovoltaics” (2015). ATB: Annual Technology Baseline; CF: Capacity Factor; H2FC: Hydrogen Fuel Cell; CAES: Compressed Air Energy Storage

Limited geographical locations available. May not be available in some regions due to water stress.

Carbon emitting options. Including the social cost of carbon will increase reported values.

Energy “Storage”


QTR Feedback

Note: H2 storage on-board FCEVs is addressed in Ch. 8

• Major challenges: Reduce the cost of producing and delivering H2 from renewable/low-carbon sources for FCEV and other uses (capex, O&M, feedstock, infrastructure, safety, permitting, codes/standards)

• Factors driving change in the technologies:

• FCEVs are driving requirements (e.g. high P tanks) • Need to reduce cost of 700 bar refueling stations

for near-term FCEV roll-out

• Where the technology R&D needs to go: • Materials innovations to improve efficiencies,

performance, durability and cost, and address safety (e.g. embrittlement, high pressure issues)

• System-level innovations including renewable integration schemes, tri-generation (co-produce power, heat and H2), energy storage balance-of-plant improvements, etc.

• Cost reductions in H2 compression, storage and dispensing components

• Continued resource assessments to identify regional solutions to cost-competitive H2

Renewable energy integration options with hydrogen

H2 offers important long-term value as a clean energy carrier

current

near- to

longer-term


• Reduce the cost of H2 from renewable and low-carbon domestic resources to achieve a delivered & dispensed cost of

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