asset optimization for the process industries: from data ...€¦ · 17/06/2017 · maintenance...
TRANSCRIPT
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1 © 2017 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved.
Asset Optimization for the Process Industries: From Data to Insights to Actions
June 2017
Willie Chan, Ashok Rao, Bill Mock
Aspen Technology, Inc.
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© 2017 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved.2
AspenTech Disclaimer
Aspen Technology may provide information regarding possible future product developments including
new products, product features, product interfaces, integration, design, architecture, etc. that may be
represented as “product roadmaps or product visions”.
Any such information is for discussion purposes only and does not constitute a commitment by Aspen
Technology to do or deliver anything in these product roadmaps or otherwise.
Any such commitment must be explicitly set forth in a written contract between the customer and Aspen
Technology, executed by an authorized officer of each company.
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© 2017 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved.3
AspenTech recognizes George Stephanopoulos
Founding Chair, AspenTech Academy
Established in 2012 to
Accelerate application of research innovations in Process Engineering software
Promote the use of Process Systems Engineering software in universities
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© 2017 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved.4
Evolution of Process Systems Engineering
MAINTENANCE - MAINTAIN THE ASSET
MANUFACTURING - OPERATE THE ASSET
ENGINEERING - DESIGN & OPTIMIZE THE ASSET
SUPPLY CHAIN - OPTIMIZE THE SUPPLY CHAIN
Process
80’s & 90’s
Plant & Sites
00’s to Today
Unit
70’s
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiXi7f1p8_JAhVMmR4KHcOZDHMQjRwIBw&url=http://news.exxonmobil.com/press-release/exxonmobil-singapore-chemical-plant-expansion-operation&psig=AFQjCNHvFS3nDtnxXY3WCwB5Gz39POlKxw&ust=1449768785893892http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiXi7f1p8_JAhVMmR4KHcOZDHMQjRwIBw&url=http://news.exxonmobil.com/press-release/exxonmobil-singapore-chemical-plant-expansion-operation&psig=AFQjCNHvFS3nDtnxXY3WCwB5Gz39POlKxw&ust=1449768785893892https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiq9NSQpc_JAhVKFz4KHQAWDb8QjRwIBw&url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractionating_column&psig=AFQjCNHAZ8ki4Vx-3Gi72aPsmgEaWXQcIw&ust=1449768085240625https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiq9NSQpc_JAhVKFz4KHQAWDb8QjRwIBw&url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractionating_column&psig=AFQjCNHAZ8ki4Vx-3Gi72aPsmgEaWXQcIw&ust=1449768085240625
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© 2017 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved.5
Technology Trends
By 2020 - over 7 billion Internet-connected
industrial devices* Gartner 2015
The Industrial Internet of Things (IIOT) is changing the world as we know it!
Market Trends
Connected industrial devices will proliferate
worldwide
Sensors and equipment will become
increasingly “smarter”
Connected devices will generate massive amounts
of condition data
Manufacturers will look to analytics to provide deep
process insight
Industrial information systems will move to the
cloud
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3165317
Cloud
Analytics
Embeddable
HW/SW
Cybersecurity
Networking
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3165317
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© 2017 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved.6
Example: Wealth of Sensor Data in Plant Historians
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Example: P&IDs and Equipment Datasheets
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Example: 3D Plant Model
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Example : Maintenance Data
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Example: Textual / Unstructured data
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© 2017 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved.11
Asset OptimizationA comprehensive, holistic approach to driving the highest possible financial return over the entire asset lifecycle
Design
Operate
Maintain
Push the boundaries ofwhat’s possible
Maximize uptime withactionable insights
Run to the limits
of performance
AssetLifecycle
What if you could leverage the rich wealth of asset data to ……
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© 2017 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved.12
Smart Sensors
Big Data
Mobile Connectivity
Cloud Computing
High Fidelity Modeling
AI & Machine Learning
Advanced Visualization
Asset OptimizationA comprehensive, holistic approach to driving the highest possible financial return over the entire asset lifecycle
Design
Operate
Maintain
Push the boundaries ofwhat’s possible
Maximize uptime withactionable insights
Run to the limits
of performance
What if you could leverage the rich wealth of asset data to ……
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© 2017 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved.13
Solution Vision
• Data sources that span time series, maintenance records and textual content like operating manuals
• Insights by bringing together design, operations and maintenance domains, and automation of complex analyses and workflows
• Guidance with an objective to minimize plant lifecycle costs subject to the level of risk the organization can tolerate
Data Sources Aggregate / Clean/ Consolidate
Insights Messaging and Actions
Asset Optimization Engine
Operational Data
Maintenance Data
Design Data
Other sources
Time Series Data
Asset / Material Info
Events
Textual Context
Operations Guidance
Maintenance Guidance
Design Guidance
Rules
Models
Workflows
Capture Organize ImplementPredict and Prescribe
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© 2017 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved.14
Big Data Ecosystem
Design improvements
Sensor Needs
Closed Loop Control
Work Orders
Spare Parts
Data Sources InsightsAggregate / Clean/ Consolidate
Enabling Technologies
Capture Organize Predict and Prescribe Implement
PC / MobileVR AR
Operator Records
Data Historian
Asset Breakdown Data
Sensors
P&IDs
literature
Datasheets
Operational Data
Maintenance Data
Design Data
Enterprise Asset
Management
Other Sources
LIMS
Messaging and Actions
Cognitive Computing
Machine Learning
Knowledge Graphs
3D Modeling
Process Modeling
Molecular Modeling
Ensemble Modeling
Prescriptive Guidance
Analytics Engine
Visualization
Natural Language
Processing
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© 2017 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved.15
Data Science – Pattern Discovery, Pattern Search, and Process Data Visualization
Process Sensors
Compact Data Visualization
Pattern Discovery
Pattern Search
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Real-time
Data
Bayesian Network RCA Model
(Machine Learning)
KPI exhibits undesirable spikes. RCA to identify precursors/causes
His
tori
an T
ime s
eri
es
M03
M01
M04
M02
Pre
curs
ors
dete
cte
d b
y R
CA
Feature Extraction (Data Science)
Data Science – Root Cause Analysis (RCA)
- Structure learning
- Conditional probabilities
- Causal links connect nodes
Warning! High probability of KPI spike @ time=XXX
Predictive Capabilities (Data Science)
Precursorpredictive lag: 80 min
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© 2017 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved.17
Empirical Modeling – Multivariate Analysis
Data Conditioning
Anomaly Detection
Key Contributions
Operational Guidance
Optimization of Operation
PLS / PCA Modeling isolates the most
important data dimensions
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Molecular Characterization – From Analytical Data to First-Principle Molecule-based Process Models
Whole Crude Data
~ 20 points
Distilled Cuts Data
~ 100 points
GC-MS Data
~ 1000 points
FT-ICR-MS Data
~ 50,00 points
MC Model
Molecule-based Process Model
Molecular Distributions
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Operations Analytics – Combining Data Science, 1st Principle & Empirical Modeling for Equipment Analytics
Connect plant measurements to simulation model
Deploy column model and monitor plant operation
Display measured and calculated values (predictions)
Real time dashboard
Connected historian as historical and real-time plant data source
Auto tune model with historical plant data
Monitor operation using real-time data
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© 2017 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved.20
Smart Trained AgentsSensor Data
Asset Work History
Asset Monitoring and Failure Prediction
Maintenance Analytics – Training of Agents from Maintenance and Historical Data to Monitor Plant Operation
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Areas for Future Research & Development
Data Sourcing and Transmission
Computing and Visualization
Cognitive Reasoning
Knowledge Graphs
Natural Language Processing
Ensemble modeling
Model Calibration
Prescriptive Engine
Machine Learning
Molecular modeling
Cloud and Edge Analytics
Cybersecurity
Software Defined Storage
Augmented Reality
Virtual Reality
Mobile Devices
Ensemble modeling
Knowledge Graphs
Cognitive Computing
Prescriptive Engine
Big Data Ecosystem
Design improvements
Sensor Needs
Closed Loop Control
Work Orders
Spare Parts
Data Sources InsightsAggregate / Clean/ Consolidate
Capture Organize Predict and Prescribe Implement
PC / MobileVR AR
Operator Records
Data Historian
Asset Breakdown Data
Sensors
P&IDs
literature
Datasheets
Operational Data
Maintenance Data
Design Data
Enterprise Asset
Management
Other Sources
LIMS
Messaging and Actions
Cognitive Computing
Machine Learning
Knowledge Graphs
3D Modeling
Process Modeling
Molecular Modeling
Ensemble Modeling
Prescriptive Guidance
Analytics Engine
Visualization
Natural Language
Processing
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© 2017 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved.22
Empowering the Next Generation of Process Engineers
• Engineering
• Modeling
• Optimization
• Data Science
• Machine Learning
• Analytics