Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change and Human Rights

Presentation by Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC

Geneva, 22 October 2008

TARSAR

FAR AR4

A Progression of Understanding: Greater and Greater Certainty in Attribution to Human Influence

FAR (1990): “unequivocal detection not likely for a decade”

SAR (1995): “balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence”

TAR (2001): “most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (odds 2 out of 3) due to human activities”

AR4 (2007): “most of the warming is very likely (odds 9 out of 10) due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases”

IPCC

Distribution of regional per capita GHG emissions in 2004

IPCC

Surface Warming PatternA1B, 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999

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High latitude: - production increases with 1-3°C rise in local mean temperature - decreases above 1-3°C rise.

Crop responses depend on latitude

Low latitude: - Production decreases with 1-2°C rise in

local mean temperatures- Increased drought/flood frequency affect

especially subsistence sectors at low latitudes

IPCC

Impacts on crops and lifestock

Projected impacts on water resources

Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent.

More heavy precipitation events will augment flood risk.

By mid-century river runoff and water availability - increase by 10-40% at high latitudes, some wet tropics - decrease by 10-30% over dry mid-latitudes and dry tropics

In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers

and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water

availability in regions where more than one-sixth of the world

population currently lives. IPCC

Climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development

- Millions of people could experience more

coastal flooding if Δ T > 2oC in this century.

- Impacts exacerbated by storms,

coral bleaching, degradation of coastal wetlands

and increased human-induced pressures

Sea level rise is inevitable !

Human settlements and low-lying areas

- Risks associated with extreme events

- High vulnerability in riverine and

coastal areas

- Urbanization often in high risk areas

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Megadeltas – particularly vulnerable

The health status of millions of people is projected to be affected

• Increases in malnutrition

• Increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme weather events

• Increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases

• Increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to changes in air quality

• Altered spatial distribution of

some infectious diseases.

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Distribution of Impacts

- Those in weakest economic position are often the most vulnerable to climate change

- Greater vulnerability of specific groups such as poor and elderly - also in developed countries

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- Sharp differences across regions - Low-latitude and less-developed areas generally face greater risk

Multiple non-climate stresses increase vulnerability

Analytical Tools

• Scenario driven impacts analysis• Provides broad overview

• Vulnerability assessment• Broadened to include social vulnerability

• Adaptation based approach• Examine adaptive capacity and improve resilience

• Key vulnerabilities – long term goal Art.2 UNFCCC• Magnitude, timing, persistence and reversibility,

likelihood of occurrence, potential for adaptation, distribution of impacts and importance of system at risk

Risk-management framework

Risk - defined by magnitude and probability of occurrence

Captures • uncertainty • exposure • sensitivity • adaptation

Risk-management framework

• Assignment of probabilities to specific key impacts – can be very difficult

• Mitigation reduces risks, delay in action increases risks

• Adaptation reduces risk of negative impacts • More difficult to adapt to larger magnitudes and faster

rates of warming• Some impacts cannot be avoided – sea level rise,

loss of species• Climate change in context of socio-economic

baseline

Vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation

GHG Stabilization and Temperature

The lower the stabilization, the earlier global GHG should go down

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Impacts by sector

Way forward• Identify vulnerable areas and communities • Identify driving forces that enhance or reduce

vulnerability• Develop adaptation plans – bottom up and top down,

use local coping capacity• Analysis of synergies and trade-offs of adaptation

and mitigation measures – on case by case basis• Food prices, degradation of natural habitat, employment,

• Assessment of attribution of damages and of avoided damages

• Address question of insurance

Nobel Peace Prize 2007

IPCC together with Mr Gore « for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge

about man-made climate change, and to lay the

foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract

such change"