INPRO Dialogue Forum on INPRO Dialogue Forum on Nuclear Energy Innovations, ViennaNuclear Energy Innovations, Vienna

Contribution of Nuclear Technologies

to the Economic Development:

The Korean Experience

Contribution of Nuclear Technologies

to the Economic Development:

The Korean Experience

2010. 22010. 2

ManKiManKi, LEE, LEE

Korea Atomic Energy Research InstituteKorea Atomic Energy Research Institute

22

ContentsContents

Contribution to GDP from NPPContribution to GDP from NPP

Contribution to Regional Income from NPPContribution to Regional Income from NPP

Contribution to GDP from RIContribution to GDP from RI

33

Linkage Effect of Nuclear PowerLinkage Effect of Nuclear Power

Backward Linkage Effect

Stimulating other economic sectors, which provide Stimulating other economic sectors, which provide

intermediate inputs for nuclear sectorintermediate inputs for nuclear sector

Forward Linkage Effect

Stimulating other economic sectors, which use the Stimulating other economic sectors, which use the

output from nuclear sectoroutput from nuclear sector

44

The Study Focusing onThe Study Focusing on

Quantifying linkage effects from nuclear sector

NPP constructionNPP construction

NPP operationNPP operation

From 1980 to 2005 (every 5 years)From 1980 to 2005 (every 5 years)

55

Contribution of NPP construction to national economy Contribution of NPP construction to national economy

Applying Input Output Model

66

Reorganized 36 sectors in the I-O tableReorganized 36 sectors in the I-O table

12

No.No. Sector nameSector name Related nuclear activityRelated nuclear activity

11 Agriculture, forestry, and fisheriesAgriculture, forestry, and fisheries Food processingFood processing

22 Mining and QuarryingMining and Quarrying

33 Food, beverage and tobaccoFood, beverage and tobacco Food processingFood processing

44 Textile products & leather productsTextile products & leather products

55 Wood and paper productsWood and paper products

66 Printing, publishing and reproduction of recorded mediaPrinting, publishing and reproduction of recorded media

77 Petroleum and coal productsPetroleum and coal products

88 Chemicals and allied productsChemicals and allied products RadiochemistryRadiochemistry

99 Inorganic basic chemical productsInorganic basic chemical products Nuclear fuel fabricationNuclear fuel fabrication

1010 Nonmetallic mineral productsNonmetallic mineral products NonNon--destructive testingdestructive testing

1111 Primary metal productsPrimary metal products NonNon--destructive testingdestructive testing

1212 Fabricated metal productsFabricated metal products NonNon--destructive testingdestructive testing

1313 General machinery and equipmentGeneral machinery and equipment Manufacturing of main components and other machineryManufacturing of main components and other machinery

1414 Electronic and other electric equipmentElectronic and other electric equipment Manufacturing of instrument and control devicesManufacturing of instrument and control devices

1515 Precision instrumentsPrecision instruments NonNon--destructive testingdestructive testing

1616 Transportation equipmentTransportation equipment

1717 Furniture and other manufacturing productsFurniture and other manufacturing products

1818 Water power generationWater power generation

1919 Thermal power generationThermal power generation External electricity supplied to nuclear power plant in operatioExternal electricity supplied to nuclear power plant in operationn

2020 Atomic power generationAtomic power generation Nuclear power plant operationNuclear power plant operation

2121 SelfSelf--power generationpower generation

2222 Gas and water supplyGas and water supply

2323 Repair constructionRepair construction Construction related to the operation and maintenanceConstruction related to the operation and maintenance

2424 Electric power plant constructionElectric power plant construction Construction of new nuclear power plantConstruction of new nuclear power plant

2525 Wholesale and retail tradeWholesale and retail trade

2626 Eating and drinking places, and hotels and other lodging placesEating and drinking places, and hotels and other lodging places

2727 Transportation and warehousingTransportation and warehousing

2828 Communications and broadcastingCommunications and broadcasting

2929 Finance and insuranceFinance and insurance Finance and insurance of nuclear power plantFinance and insurance of nuclear power plant

3030 Real estate agencies and rentalReal estate agencies and rental SitingSiting

3131 Business servicesBusiness services Architecture engineeringArchitecture engineering

3232 Public administration and defensePublic administration and defense

3333 Educational and research servicesEducational and research services Research reactorsResearch reactors

3434 Medical and health services, and social welfareMedical and health services, and social welfare Nuclear medicineNuclear medicine

3535 Social and other servicesSocial and other services

3636 Dummy sectorsDummy sectors

77

Formulation of analysisFormulation of analysis

YAIX 1)(

X : Induced output

Y : Final demand vector for NPP building

X : Induced output

Y : Final demand vector for NPP building

88

Matching NPP construction data to sectors in IO Matching NPP construction data to sectors in IO

Initial fuel

Building, structures

Machinery equipment

A/E

IDC

Owner’s cost

Initial fuel

Building, structures

Machinery equipment

A/E

IDC

Owner’s cost

Collected cost itemsCollected cost items Sectors in IOSectors in IO

Inorganic basic chemical products(9)

Electric power plant construction(24)

Electronic & other electric equipment

(14), General machinery equip.(13)

Business services(31)

Finance and insurance(29)

Business services(31), furniture &

other manufact.(17), finance &

insurance(29)

99

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

sector

bil

lion

Won

9 10 1 18 713 16 39 126 270 295 57414 7 16 51 11 120 23317 1 0 1 27 3 224 66 171 123 224 399 42829 80 300 31 102 488 37731 2 30 36 66 141 266

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Creation of final demand vector for NPP construction by year with industry Creation of final demand vector for NPP construction by year with industry

1010

-

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

sector

billi

on W

on

Output Value added

Contribution by NPP construction - Output & Value Added (36 sector, 1980) -

Contribution by NPP construction - Output & Value Added (36 sector, 1980) -

1111

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36sector

bil

lion

Won

Output Value added

Contribution by NPP construction - Output & Value Added (36 sector, 2005) -

Contribution by NPP construction - Output & Value Added (36 sector, 2005) -

1212

Contribution of NPP operation to national economy Contribution of NPP operation to national economy

Applying the same formula as in the construction

1313

Contribution by NPP operation - Output & Value Added (36 sector, 1980) -

Contribution by NPP operation - Output & Value Added (36 sector, 1980) -

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

sector

billi

on W

on

Output Value added

1414

Contribution by NPP operation - Output & Value Added (36 sector, 2005) -

Contribution by NPP operation - Output & Value Added (36 sector, 2005) -

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36sector

bil

lion

Won

Output Value added

1515

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

construction operation

Summary of the contribution of nuclear power sector to GDP Summary of the contribution of nuclear power sector to GDP

1616

Electric Power Supply to the Economic Sectors

0.77% of GDP0.77% of GDP

=Revenue of Nuclear Power ×

Supply Induced

Multiplier

Forward Linkage EffectForward Linkage Effect

1717

Total contribution of nuclear power sector to GDP(2005) Total contribution of nuclear power sector to GDP(2005)

0.8

1.1

0.2

Backward

Linkage Effect

(1.3% of GDP)

Forward Linkage Effect

(0.8%(0.8%

of GDP)

Construction of NPP

Operation of NNP

Electric Power Supplyto the Economic Sectors

Total Effect : 2.1% of GDPTotal Effect : 2.1% of GDP

1818

Percentage Shares of 4 Major Industries to GDP in Korea Percentage Shares of 4 Major Industries to GDP in Korea

Primary iron Primary iron

and steel and steel

productsproducts

SemiSemi--

conductorconductorAutomobileAutomobile

Petroleum Petroleum

refineryrefinery

ProductsProducts

1.6% 1.5% 2.5% 2.7%

In the year of 2005

1919

Replacement of all the nuclear power by fossil

fuel generation

Backward linkage effectBackward linkage effect

Stabilization Effect on Electricity Price from Nuclear Stabilization Effect on Electricity Price from Nuclear

PowerPower

Nuclear Power’s Incremental Contribution to the Economic Development Nuclear Power’s Incremental Contribution to the Economic Development

2020

from Backward Linkage Effect

0.3~0.8% of GDP depending on the periods0.3~0.8% of GDP depending on the periods

In 2005, it is 0.3~0.4%

from Stabilization of Electricity Price

0.27% of GDP for the average past 5 years0.27% of GDP for the average past 5 years

= Increasing rate of electricity price without nuclear power

(7.5%) ×

Electricity Price Elasticity of GDP(0.036)

In total(2005), 0.6~0.7% of GDP

Incremental Nuclear Contribution to GDPIncremental Nuclear Contribution to GDP

2121

Contribution to Regional Income from NPP Contribution to Regional Income from NPP

Empirical Study on Ulchin site of NPP

By using Regional Input Output ModelBy using Regional Input Output Model

2222

Socio-economic aspects of UlchinSocio-economic aspects of Ulchin

Location

The East CoastThe East Coast

Population

57,000 person in 200557,000 person in 2005

GRDP

1.8(Billion Dollar) in 20051.8(Billion Dollar) in 2005

Only 0.21% out of GDP in 2005Only 0.21% out of GDP in 2005

Nuclear Power Plant

6 units6 units

12.5% of total power generation in 200512.5% of total power generation in 2005

2323

Economic activities related with nuclear power in the region Economic activities related with nuclear power in the region

Construction of NPP

Operation of NPP

Local Taxes paid by NPP

Special support for infrastructure and regional development

projects

Subsidized electricity Subsidized electricity

Social welfare projectsSocial welfare projects

Industrial relocation assistanceIndustrial relocation assistance

EducationEducation

2424

Total Regional Income Effects of Ulchin Nuclear Power Plant (In Billions Won) Total Regional Income Effects of Ulchin Nuclear Power Plant (In Billions Won)

Nuclear PowerNuclear Power NppNpp AreasAreasRegionalRegionalProjectProject

LocalLocalTaxesTaxes TotalTotal

Shares to TotalShares to TotalRegional Regional IncomeIncomeConstructionConstruction OperationOperation

19901990 00 20.020.0 0.60.6 -- 20.520.5 --

19951995 65.165.1 23.123.1 1.41.4 2.42.4 92.192.1 39%39%

20002000 67.267.2 44.844.8 3.53.5 6.46.4 121.9121.9 43%43%

20012001 65.765.7 55.355.3 5.05.0 2.42.4 128.4128.4 43%43%

20022002 74.574.5 50.950.9 4.24.2 3.93.9 133.6133.6 40%40%

20032003 68.768.7 81.481.4 6.06.0 4.84.8 160.9160.9 44%44%

20042004 36.136.1 74.074.0 4.34.3 5.25.2 119.6119.6 26%26%

20052005 00 75.575.5 3.23.2 10.910.9 89.789.7 20%20%

2525

Contribution to GDP from RIContribution to GDP from RI

Applying IO analysis

Maintaining the same Maintaining the same sectoralsectoral classification as classification as

nuclear power nuclear power

Economic contribution from RI is based on RI

utilization

This study focuses on those selected sectors

Manufacturing, Medical, R&DManufacturing, Medical, R&D

2626

Summary of value added to GDP from selected radioisotope related industries (In Billions of won)

Summary of value added to GDP from selected radioisotope related industries (In Billions of won)

19801980 19851985 19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005

OutputOutput

ManufacturingManufacturingMedicalMedicalR&DR&D

391391 1,0541,054 2,0092,009 4,2144,214 7,5477,547 10,78710,787

4949 207207 408408 970970 2,3982,398 4,0404,040

-- -- -- -- -- --

Sub totalSub total 440440 1,2611,261 2,4172,417 5,1845,184 9,9459,945 14,82714,827

ValueValueaddedadded

ManufacturingManufacturingMedicalMedicalR&DR&D

8888 277277 592592 1,4371,437 2,3602,360 3,4883,488

2222 102102 196196 504504 1,1011,101 1,9041,904

-- 1515 1515 1515 1515 1515

Sub totalSub total 110110 394394 803803 1,9561,956 3,4763,476 5,4075,407

GDPGDP 38,77538,775 84,06184,061 186,691186,691 398,838398,838 578,665578,665 810,516810,516

ValueValue--AddedAddedContribution to GDPContribution to GDP 0.28%0.28% 0.47%0.47% 0.43%0.43% 0.49%0.49% 0.60%0.60% 0.67%0.67%

2727