assessment of climate change risk to municipal ......assessment of climate change risk to municipal...

Assessment of Climate Change Risk to Municipal Infrastructure - City of London

Lisa Bowering, Angela Peck, and Slobodan P. SimonovicThe University of Western Ontario

The Institute for Catastrophic Loss ReductionThe University of Waterloo

Key messages

Municipal infrastructure is vulnerable to climate change

Adaptation cost can be very high Adaptation = Risk management Comprehensive risk assessment methodology is

required to gather and examine available data in order to develop an understanding of the relevant climate effects and their interactions with infrastructure.

Time to act is now

www.slobodansimonovic.com -> research -> FIDS 2

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Outline

Methodology introduction and data Climate modelling Hydrologic modelling Hydraulic modelling

Risk assessment Conclusions


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Study team

Slobodan P. Simonovic, Professor (UWO, ICLR) Donald H. Burn, Professor (UW) Dan Sandink, Manager (ICLR) Hyung-Il Eum, PostDoctoral Fellow (UWO) Angela Peck, MESc candidate (UWO) Lisa Bowering, MESc candidate (UWO) Dragan Sredojevic, MESc candidate (UWO).


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Research methodologyInput

Climate Scenarios Weather Generator

Temperature, Precipitation

Rainfall-runoff transformationHydrologic Model

Floodplain mappingHydraulic Model

Risk Assessment


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Research methodology Data Input

Inventory of infrastructure components; Data gathering and sufficiency analysis;

Climate Modelling Existing climate scenario Wet climate scenario

Hydrologic Modelling HEC-HMS model

Hydraulic Modelling HEC-RAS model

Risk Assessment Qualitative vulnerability assessment; Quantitative vulnerability assessment; and

Prioritization of the infrastructure components based on the level of risk


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City of London, Ontario, Canada


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Spatial data


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Infrastructure data input

Buildings Transportation

Roadways Bridges

Critical Infrastructure Schools Hospitals and Emergency Services

Barriers Dams, Dikes, Other flood control

infrastructure Sewer Infrastructure

Wastewater Treatment Plants Outlets Sanitary and Storm Systems


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Climate modelling

10www.slobodansimonovic.com -> research -> FIDS 10

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Input





Risk Assessment

Climate scenarios

Lower bound climate scenario No modifications due to climate change

and future emissions Weather generator with perturbation of

historical data

Upper bound climate scenario Recommended by the previous study Data modified by GCM


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Choice of climate scenario

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

CSI

RO

Mk2

b_B1

1_PR

GIS

SE-R

_B1_

PR

GIS

SE-R

_A2_

PR

NC

ARC

CSM

3_A2

_PR

NC

ARC

CSM

3_B1

_PR

CSI

RO

MK3

_SR

A1B_

PR

CSI

RO

MK3

_SR

B1_P

R

NC

ARC

CSM

3_A1

B_PR

CG

CM

3T47

_PR

_B1

CSI

RO

MK3

_SR

A2_P

R

CG

CM

3T47

_PR

_A1B

NC

ARPC

M_A

1B_P

R

CG

CM

3T47

_PR

_A2

NC

ARPC

M_A

2_PR

GIS

SAO

M_B

1_PR

MIR

OC

3.2_

MED

RES

_A2…

MIR

OC

3.2_

MED

RES

_A1…

GIS

SAO

M_A

1B_P

R

HAD

GEM

1_A1

B_PR

HAD

GEM

1_A2

_PR

ECH

O-G

_B1_

PR

CG

CM

3T63

_PR

_A2

MIR

OC

3.2_

MED

RES

_B1…

ECH

O-G

_A2_

PR

CG

CM

3T63

_PR

_A1B

GFD

LCM

2.1_

B1_P

R

CG

CM

3T63

_PR

_B1

GFD

L30_

A21_

PR

ECH

O-G

_A1B

_PR

Miro

c3.2

_HIR

ES_B

1_PR

GFD

LCM

2.1_

A2_P

R

HAD

CM

3_B1

_PR

GFD

LCM

2.1_

A1B_

PR

CC

SRN

IES_

B21_

PR

HAD

CM

3_A1

B_PR

HAD

CM

3_A2

_PR

Miro

c3.2

_HIR

ES_A

1B_P

R

ECH

AM5O

M_A

1B_P

R

ECH

AM5O

M_B

1_PR

ECH

AM5O

M_A

2_PR

Prec

(mm

)

Pmean (2050s)


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Weather generator

K-NN model Successful applications (Yates,

2003; Sharif and Burn, 2006) Ability to generate

meteorological variables out of the historical range

Combined with Principle Component Analysis to reduce computational burden

Use of 15 stations and 3 variables (precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature)

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www.slobodansimonovic.com -> research -> FIDS

Weather generator


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Hydrologic modelling


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Input





Risk Assessment

Hydrologic modelling Modification of HEC-HMS Nesting of sub-basins

Medway (5 sub-basins) Stoney (6 sub-basins) Pottersburg (4 sub-basins) Dingman (16 sub-basins)


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Hydrologic modelling

More frequent floodingMore severe floods


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Hydraulic modelling


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Input





Risk Assessment

Hydraulic modelling Input: Streamflows

from hydrologic model

HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS

Output: floodplains to represent flood extent and depth for use in risk analysis


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Hydraulic modelling

100 yr 250 yr


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Risk assessment

2323

Input





Risk Assessment

www.slobodansimonovic.com -> research -> FIDS

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Risk assessment

Risk IndicesConsequences

-Loss of Function -Loss of Equipment-Loss of Structure

Infrastructure Flood Risk Assessment due to Climate Change

Risk Tables

Risk AssessmentOutput

Risk Maps

Monetary Value

Probability

Risk = Probability of hazard x Σ[Monetary damage value x Consequence ]


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Floodplain

Aerial photo

Buildings

Identify inundated infrastructure

Risk assessment


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Risk assessment




Risk Tables


Risk Maps

Monetary Value

Probability


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Risk assessment Probability - The likelihood that a particular flood

event will occur in a given year

100yr RP 100yr RP 250yr RP 250yr RP

CC_LB CC_UB CC_LB CC_UB


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Risk assessment




Risk Tables


Risk Maps

Monetary Value

Probability


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Flood Consequence Multipliers Loss of Function (IM1) - a fraction of the damage

an infrastructure incurs as a result of losing its function during a flood event [0,1]

Loss of Equipment (IM2) - a fraction of the damage to any equipment related to the infrastructure as a result of a particular flood event [0,1]

Loss of Structure (IM3) - a level of damage to the infrastructure itself which may need repair or replacement as a result of a particular flood event

Risk assessment


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Risk assessment

Deterministic (quantitative) and fuzzy (qualitative) damage measures are combined to describe loss of structure (IM3)

30www.slobodansimonovic.com -> research -> FIDS

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Risk assessment




Risk Tables


Risk Maps

Monetary Value

Probability


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Risk assessment


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Risk assessment

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Risk assessment

100 CC_ LB 100 CC_ UB 250 CC_LB 250 CC_UB

Total risk

573,000,000 984,000,000 917,000,000 1,252,000,000

0.00 0.61 0.51 1.00

5,730,000 9,840,000 3,668,000 5,004,000

0.33 1.00 0.00 0.22

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Risk assessment

250 UTRCA 250 CC_LB 250 CC_UB

797,000,000 917,000,000 1,252,000,000

0.00 0.26 1.00

3,188,000 3,668,000 5,004,000

0.00 0.27 1.00

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Risk assessment


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Risk assessment100 CC_ LB 100 CC_ UB 250 CC_LB 250 CC_UB

Roads0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bridges0.50 0.58 0.23 0.27

Buildings0.43 1.00 0.37 0.55

Pollution Control Plants0.57 0.62 0.24 0.30

Critical Facilities0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00

Barriers0.16 0.65 0.23 0.32

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Risk assessment


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Conclusions

Insights into climate change caused flood risk to municipal infrastructure

Multiple recommendations (engineering, operational, policy)

Input into adaptation policy development

Prioritization of adaption action


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assessment of climate change risk to municipal ......assessment of climate change risk to municipal...

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