THE REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENT OF ZANZIBAR

ASSESSMENT FOR MASIKA 2011/2012 RICE CROP PERFORMANCE

Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources

August 2012

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYAgriculture which is mainly rain-fed constitutes an important economic sector of the Zanzibar economy in terms of food production, employment generation, and generation of foreign exchange earnings. The Agricultural Sector accounts for about 32.2 percent of GDP (OCGS, 2011) and the contribution of crops were estimated to be 20.8 percent (Economic Survey, 2009). The main food crops grown include rice, cassava, bananas, sweet potatoes, yams, legumes (cowpeas, green gram and pigeon peas), fruits and vegetables. Although, rice is the most preferred staple food, its domestic production accounted for 16 percent of the annual food requirement in 2011.

In an effort to increase domestic production and consequently decrease dependency on rice importation and price inflation, the Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar introduced a rice development programme that includes subsidies for mechanisation, quality seeds and fertilizers for paddy cultivation. During the 2011/2012 Masika season, a total of 31,011 acres1 of rice were planted in Zanzibar under rainfed system of which 13,207 in Unguja and 17,8042 in Pemba. Of these 24,636 acres were tilled by tractors, 6,291 acres were tilled by hand-hoes, and 84 acres were ox-ploughed. In this particular season, an estimated 70,719 rainfed rice farmers, 24,405 in Unguja and 46,314 in Pemba cultivated rice.

Domestic rice supply has been affected by repeated occurrences of rainfall irregularities and hence resulting into food shocks in Zanzibar since 2006. The increasing Weather shocks do pose a great challenge not only to the general agricultural development but also food security in the isles. Smallholder rainfed farmers in particular are at a high risk of falling into destitution and chronic food insecurity given the fact that they have been experiencing new shocks before recovering from previous ones.

On account of the shortfall in rainfall timing and intensity, and uneven distribution during the 2011/2012 long-rainy cropping season, a survey on rice crop performance under rainfed cultivation was conducted in the Islands of Unguja and Pemba between 28th June to 11th July 2011 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources (MANR).

The purpose of the survey was to assess the food situation among rainfed rice growers during the Masika 2011/12 and based on the findings to recommend appropriate actions while the specific objectives were to i) assess the condition of rainfed rice field performance for Masika season 2011/12 and ii). project the food situation of rainfed rice farmers.

1 Department of Agriculture, Taarifa ya eka zilizoburugwa, kupandwa na zilizoota Centralka wilaya za Unguja na Pemba kwa Msimu wa 2011/12.2 Ibid.

i

The assessment covered all nine rural districts3 of which five are in Unguja and four in Pemba. Respondents were randomly selected from a total of 29 rain-fed rice farming valleys, 14 in Unguja and 15 in Pemba. Data collection on rainfall performance and patterns, condition of food crops in the field and household food availability, the number of rice farmers and size of areas under rainfed cultivation was conducted with the aid of field observation visits, household questionnaires and documents review. Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS) computer software version 16 and Ms Office Excel were used to analyse the data. Data analysis was primarily centred on understanding the magnitude of the effects of poor rainfall performance on rice crop performance and production and the extent of availability of other food crops among rice farming households.

According to the report findings, the net effect of untimely land preparations resulted into late planting beyond March though there were a few sites, namely Muyuni and Mtende (in South district) and Mahonda (in North B district) of which soil conditions permitted timely land preparations and planting.

Overall, results of the survey revealed that over 80 percent of the respondents described rice crop performance as poor and severely affected by erratic and low rainfall intensity particularly in the months of April and May. These two months are normally the peak periods of Masika rains and therefore critical in crop development. This situation posed massive crop failure, whereby on average across all nine districts, over 76 percent of the planted area was affected. It was further found out that of the total 31,011 acres planted with rice, 23,743 acres were affected (equivalent to 77% of the planted area). This may impact negatively on rice yields and ultimately on the household food basket.

Whereas total annual rice production for the last Masika season 2010/11 was estimated at 22,018 tons harvested from 24,295 acres; the estimated rice production for Masika 2011/2012 was only 8,273 tons, which is equivalent to 38 percent of rice harvested in 2010/2011, thus making all rice farming households vulnerable to food shortages. Importantly, Production levels in Pemba (5,093 tons) are higher than in Unguja (3,180 tons). South district performed exceptionally well in rice yields with estimated average of 2.9 tons/acre due to timely land preparations, early planting and use of farm inputs (improved seed, fertilizers and herbicides).

The projected number of rice farming households affected by poor rice performance is 64,646 (91 percent of the farmers). With an average household size of 5.5, the rice deficit will directly affect the food basket of an estimated 355,553 people. Given the low rice production during the Masika season 2011/2012, rice farmers will definitely not have sufficient reserve seeds for planting next season. Moreover, household food security of these households will be more destabilized if the performance of other alternative food crops deteriorates.

The assessment also found that among the alternative crops cassava was the most grown crop among rice farming households as evidenced by nearly 85 percent of the respondents,

3 Urban district was excluded because it is not involved in rice production.

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followed by banana (74%) and sweet potatoes (14%). The average land-holding size per household for cassava, banana and sweet potatoes was 0.82 acres, 1.58 acres and 0.27 acres respectively. On average cassava had the lowest area affected per household as evidenced by only 34 percent of the area under cassava production compared to sweet potatoes (40%) and banana (48%). However, there was geographical disparity in the size of land affected for the assessed crops with North A district taking lead with more than half of the planted area per household reportedly affected.

The second other crop cultivated by rice farming households was banana. It evidently performed worst in Micheweni with 81 percent of cultivated land affected, which was closely followed by North A (79%) and Central (50%) districts. Sweet potatoes were dominantly grown in Pemba by the time of the survey. As for Unguja, most of the households were still preparing their fields for sweet potato production during the time of survey (end of June 2011). Overall, it was observed that banana, cassava and sweet potato were not seriously affected by the rainfall patterns compared to rice; thus reasonable harvests from other locally produced crops are expected to compensate the loss in rice crop experienced by the rainfed rice farmers.

With regard to the anticipated food situation, rice farming households are expected to have 141 kg of paddy per household while the estimated household own production for cassava and banana was 765 kg and 337 kg respectively. Zanzibar’s per capita annual rice requirements is estimated at 110 kg4. Whereas the estimated annual household rice requirement5 is 575 kg, the anticipated rice production for the season 2011/12 is barely 99 kg (milled rice) per household because of the deficit in household rice harvest. Given the high preference of rice to other food stuffs, the anticipated food deficit (465 kg) may increase dependency on food purchase among rice farming households. However, availability of other crops (cassava and banana) is expected to cushion the extent of food shocks.

Comparing estimated household requirements6 with household expected food production, it is clear that overall expected production for 2011/2012 (2,078,699Kcal), is below overall food requirements (3,459,597 Kcal). This suggests that the rainfed rice households are at a risk of experiencing food shortages. If mitigation measures are not prepared in advance the situation might degenerate into food insecurity.

Survey report findings on the duration of expected household rice harvests showed that available rice at the household level is projected to sustain 49 percent of the rice farming households for less than two months. Only 12 percent of the respondents expected to have enough rice to sustain them for 3 months while 15 percent will have rice beyond 6 months.

4 Based on calculations extracted from tables of representative values of foods commonly used in tropical countries (Platt, 1985); and with assumptions that household food basket for Zanzibar consist of 50% rice. 5 2009/10 HBS indictaed the Rural household size as 5.316

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Apparently 24 percent of the rice farming households lost their entire rice crop during the Masika 2011/2012 cropping season.

A similar trend was observed in the analysis of duration of own total food supply at the household level. According to the survey results, total food supply from own production will sustain an average of 45 percent of rice farming households for not more than two months. Total available food in both the garden and store will on average sustain 36 percent of the households for only one month! About a quarter of the rice farming households will have food from own production for six months. Only four percent of the respondents reported to have enough stocks to sustain them for more than a year. It was evident from the findings that nearly half of rainfed rice growing households may experience food shortages before the next harvest which will subsequently compel them to largely depend on food purchases to fulfil their domestic food requirements. Low purchasing power among the rice farming households may inevitably restrict them to access adequate food which may again result into severe food insecurity.

Since the duration of harvest for both Masika and Vuli seasons in Zanzibar is three months for each farming seasons (WFP et al.; 2010:131), farming households tend to have a stable access to food for only six months of the year and do purchase it for the gap months. The anticipated Masika 2011/2012 harvest was projected to sustain households food requirement for two months (July and August) instead of the three normal months and thereafter affected farmers would be required to purchase food to cover the food gap (September and December). This will be a critical time as more resources would be needed to cater for production costs in preparation for the forthcoming Vuli and Masika seasons, and other essential household expenditures. The next expected harvest is between January and March 2013, but this will only depend on the performance of rains in the proceeding Vuli season.

Based on the assessment, the following recommendations were made:

a) Provide rice seeds and other short-term varieties of planting materials of food crops such as sorghum, cowpeas and maize may also be considered to affected rainfed farmers. Since rice farmers won’t have sufficient reserve seed for planting next season owing to the extremely low harvests, timely provision of high yielding rice seeds coupled with fertilisers and herbicides to farmers in recommended rates is necessary. Considering a total of 31,011 acres planted under the rainfed farming system last season, an estimated 930 tons of rice seed is required for next 2012/13 cropping season though the MANR has allocated funds for procurement of only 570 tons7 of quality rice seeds covering both rainfed and irrigated farming systems. Seeds of rice varieties that performed well in the previous long-rainy season should be procured as soon as possible from reliable suppliers.

b) Improve timely availability of subsidized mechanized tractor service delivery to fit with the rice crop cultivation activity calendar.

7 MANR Budget speech – 2012/2013; page 25.

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c) Expedite special and targeted public assistance programs including providing relief food, food for work and cash for food schemes to prevent deterioration of the nutritional status of most vulnerable groups. However, a thorough investigation is urgently needed to identify the most vulnerable households who qualify to access the food relief.

d) There is an urgent need for Government to put more efforts in the improvement and expansion of irrigation and water harvesting infrastructures.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................i

1.0 INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................1

1.1 Introduction.............................................................................................................................1

1.2 Background.............................................................................................................................1

1.3: Objectives of the assessment................................................................................................3

2.0 METHODOLOGY.....................................................................................................4

2.1: Survey coordination..............................................................................................................4

2.2: Study area and sampling procedures....................................................................................4

2.3: Data collection......................................................................................................................5

2.4: Data analysis.........................................................................................................................5

3.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION.................................................................................6

3.1: Land preparation and planting:.............................................................................................6

3.2: Field rice crop performance..................................................................................................6

3.3: Estimated rice production.....................................................................................................8

3.4: Affected rice farming households.........................................................................................9

3.5: Field performance of other food crops.................................................................................9

3.6: Anticipated food situation for rice farming households.....................................................113.6.1: Household food availability........................................................................................................113.6.2: Duration of household rice harvests and total food supply........................................................123.6.3: Time in which the affected households might face serious food shortages...............................14

4.0 RECOMMENDATIONS..........................................................................................16

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Distribution of Masika rainfall compared to expected normal levels.................................2Table 2: Number of sampled rain-fed rice valleys............................................................................4Table 3: Rice cultivation activity calendar in 2011/2012 cropping season comparing to normal year...........................................................................................................................................................6Table 4: Average area of rice planted and proportion of area affected per household among surveyed rice growing households in nine districts..........................................................................................7Table 5: Projected proportion of area under rice cultivation affected in 2011/2012 Masika cropping season................................................................................................................................................7Table 6: Estimated number of affected rice growing farmers/households......................................9Table 7: Average areas of other crops planted and proportion of area affected among surveyed households.......................................................................................................................................10Table 8: Expected amount of food to be available per household from own production for surveyed rice farming households during Masika 2011/2012........................................................................11Table 9: Household food production and deficit in Kcal and Metric tonnes for surveyed households 2012.................................................................................................................................................12Table 10: Household duration of rice harvests..............................................................................13Table 11: Percent households per duration of total household food supply..................................13Table 12: Comparison of harvest duration for masika cropping season between normal and expected harvest in 2012 and activity calendar..............................................................................................14

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Comparison of projected rice production levels for current year (2011/2012) with the normal year (2010/2011)...............................................................................................................................8

LIST OF ANNEXES

Annex 1: Questionnaire for rapid assessment of Rice harvest situation for 2011/2012 ‘Masika’ Season.........................................................................................................................................................17Annex 2: Annual food requirements and food deficit...................................................................20

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1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction

This report is a product of the assessment on rice crop performance under rainfed cultivation that was conducted in the isles of Unguja and Pemba between 28th June to 11th

July 2011. It was called for, following a critical shortage and uneven distribution of masika rains of the 2011/2012 cropping season. The purpose of the assessment was to provide an update on the rice crop performance, and based on the findings to recommend appropriate actions. The Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources (MANR) fielded an assessment team to undertake the assessment.

1.2 Background

Agriculture in Zanzibar is dominated by rain-fed crop production and the main food crops grown include rice, cassava, bananas, sweet potatoes, yams, legumes (cowpeas, green gram and pigeon peas), fruits and vegetables. Cereals such as maize, millet and sorghum are also grown to a lesser extent. Rice is the most preferred staple food in Zanzibar. However, the isles have been consistently failing to meet its local demands therefore rice importation has remained a significant determinant of rice availability in the Isles. Domestic rice production is estimated to be only 16% of annual requirement.

In an effort to increase domestic production and consequently decrease dependency on rice importation and inflation, the Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar has introduced the Rice Inputs Subsidy Programme that includes subsidy for mechanisation, quality seeds and fertilizers for paddy cultivation. This initiative is expected to avail smallholder farmers with access to technologies to expand utilised land area and production intensification and as such boost domestic rice production and in the long-run slow down the country’s high dependence on rice imports, hunger, malnutrition and poverty.

During the Masika season 2011/2012, a total of 31,011 acres8 of rice were planted in Zanzibar under rainfed system of which 13,207 in Unguja and 17,804 in Pemba. Of these 24,636 acres were tilled by tractors, 6,291 acres were tilled by hand-hoes, and 84 acres were ox-ploughed. An estimated 70,719 farmers (24,405 in Unguja and 46,314 in Pemba) cultivated rice under rainfed farming system in this particular season.

Zanzibar cropping calendar is characterised with bimodal nature of rainfall and two cropping seasons are experienced. The islands normally experience the Masika season in mid-March to the end of June followed by a cool period (Kipupwe season) from June

8 Department of Agriculture, Taarifa ya eka zilizoburugwa, kupandwa na zilizoota Centralka wilaya za Unguja na Pemba kwa Msimu wa 2011/12.

1

through the start of Vuli season in October. Cultivation of rice crop under rainfed conditions follows the cropping calendar of which land preparation activities (comprising of land tilling and harrowing) start from September to January. Traditionally rainfed rice cultivation is in line with the long-rains onset (Masika), which normally start in March to June. However, the 2011/12 Masika rains were far below expectations in terms of timing, intensity and distribution.

The rainfall onset of the 2011/12 Masika season started normally in March 2012 with total rainfall recorded at 84% of the normal. This trend however continued to decrease in the subsequent months of April and May (below 50% of the expected normal amount) which is not only the peak period of Masika, but also the critical period in paddy crop development. The received rains were erratic and unevenly distributed, and as highlighted in Table 1 the cumulative amount recorded for the three months of March – May were basically half of the normal levels. The dry spell within these periods led to massive crop failure as the crop at this particular time was still germinating and other varieties were at the tillering stage.

Table 1: Distribution of Masika rainfall compared to expected normal levels

Description Months/ rainfall in mm Total rainfall in mm

March April May

Rainfall in 2012 (mm) 150.5 178.4 115.5 444.4

Long term average rainfall (mm) 178.6 414.8 275.0 868.4

Comparison to average rainfall (%) 84 43 42 51

Source: Tanzania Metrology Authority (TMA) June 2012

Frequency of rainfall irregularities has been observed in Zanzibar since 2006. The repeatedly weather shocks which are apparently increasing in frequency and severity do pose a great challenge to agricultural development in the isles. In addition, the shocks increase the risk of smallholder farmers falling into destitution and chronic food insecurity given the fact that they have been experiencing new shocks before recovering from the previous ones. Furthermore, it is understood that Zanzibar is least prepared to mitigate and adapt to negative effects of climate change. Major effects that Zanzibar has witnessed as a result of rainfall irregularities include:

Agricultural Season Nature of occurrence and major effects

2005/2006 Prolonged dry spell during short-rainy ‘Vuli’ season: the spell destroyed food crops and fruits; delayed land preparation and farmers did not plant on time; water supply from tap and wells was impaired compelling affected households to turn to unsafe water sources.

2009/2010 Late onset and early cessation of the Vuli season: affected crop production and reduced the contribution of Vuli season to food production by 10 percent at 41 per cent of from the normal contribution of 51 per cent.

2

2010/2011 Late onset of the Vuli season: affected crop production and reduced the contribution of Vuli season to food production.

2011/2012 Prolonged Vuli season: affected agricultural activities especially land preparation for Masika season

Poor performance of long-rainy ‘Masika’ rainfall

1.3: Objectives of the assessment

The overall objective of the study is to assess the food situation among the rainfed rice growers during the Masika 2011/12.

The specific objectives were to:

i. Assess the condition of rainfed rice field performance for Masika season 2011/12;

ii. Project the food situation of rainfed rice farmers.

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2.0 METHODOLOGY

2.1: Survey coordination

The assessment was managed and undertaken by a team of technical staff from the Department of Food Security and Nutrition and the Department of Agriculture, under the Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources (MANR). The assessment team constituted of 22 members, 13 in Unguja and 9 in Pemba. The members were from different technical expertise including planning, food security analysis, crop production, and extension services.

2.2: Study area and sampling procedures

The assessment covered all nine rural districts9 of which five are in Unguja and four in Pemba. Respondents were randomly selected from a total of 29 rice growing valleys, 14 from Unguja and 15 from Pemba. The survey adopted a sample size of 395 smallholder farmers engaged in rice farming in the participating shehia in nine rural districts. The sample selection was based on statistical tables referred from Sarantakos10, where a sample size of 384 may be used to represent a population of over one million at a 95% confidence interval with a Margin of Error of about ±4.4%.

Table 2: Number of sampled rain-fed rice valleys

Location DistrictsTotal No. of rice farmers

Total No. of valleys

No. of sampled valleys

Number of sampled farmers

UNGUJA North A 6,331 5 2 25

North B 9,337 6 3 54

Central 5,244 22 5 58

South 263 2 2 16

West 3,230 25 2 9

Total Unguja 24,405 60 14 162

PEMBA Micheweni 9,985 132 3 48

Mkoani 13,817 76 3 47

Wete 11,160 88 6 83

Chakechake 11,352 145 3 55

Total Pemba 46,314 441 15 233

Grand Total 70,719 501 29 395

9 Urban district was excluded because it is not involved in rice production.10 Sarantakos S (1993) – Social Research; pp 124-147.

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2.3: Data collection

Field visits: A reconnaissance survey was conducted in major rice growing valleys to capture the effect of poor rainfall performance on the rice growth condition. This exercise comprised of a one day rice field observation on Thursday 28 th June 2012 conducted in 12 sampled rice growing valleys in Unguja where video clips and photographs showing the condition of rice growth performance were also taken.

Household questionnaire: A questionnaire was designed to collect detailed data on rainfall performance, condition of food crops in the field and household food availability. The questionnaire was pre-tested and the study team was re-oriented for one day.

Documents review: Secondary data on rainfall patterns, the number of rice farmers, areas under rainfed cultivation were reviewed.

2.4: Data analysis

Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS) computer software version 16 and Ms Office Excel were used to analyse the data. Data analysis was primarily centred on understanding the magnitude of the effects of poor rainfall performance on rice crop performance and production and the extent of availability of other food crops among rice farming households.

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3.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1: Land preparation and planting:

Normally rainfed rice cropping calendar begins with land preparation in September to January; and planting occurs thereafter to mid-March depending on the varieties (long, mid and short-term) to be planted. Long-term rice varieties are planted during late December to late January, whereas mid-term and short-term varieties are planted in late January and mid-February respectively. An activity calendar that compares the 2011/12 cropping season with the normal season is presented in Table 3. As depicted in the calendar, and based on the information from the respondents there were significant delays in land preparations (ploughing/harrowing) following the prolonged Vuli rains (up to January) that hindered timely delivery of tractor mechanization services due to excessive soil moisture. The net effect of untimely land preparations resulted into late planting beyond March. However, there were a few sites, namely Muyuni and Mtende (in South district) and Mahonda (in North B district) of which soil conditions permitted timely land preparations and planting.

Table 3: Rice cultivation activity calendar in 2011/2012 cropping season comparing to normal year

Cropping season

Parameters

SeptOct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar Apr MayJun

eJuly

Aug

Normal

Season

Vuli Rains Dry Masika Rains (MR)Dry/erratic

rains

2011/2012

Vuli RainsDry M

RDry

MR

Dry

Dry/erratic rains

Normal

Agric activities

Land preparation (ploughing and harrowing)- LP

Planting PL Crop development Harvest

2011/2012

Land preparation

PL LPPL

Crop development Harvest

3.2: Field rice crop performance

Overall, results of the survey revealed that over 80 percent of the respondents described rice crop performance as poor and severely affected by erratic and low rainfall intensity particularly in the months of April and May. These two months are normally the peak periods of Masika rains and therefore critical in crop development. In areas like Central and Micheweni districts, rice fields that were planted in late March to early April appeared to be stunted with poorly formed panicles and empty grains. This situation posed massive crop failure, whereby on average across all nine districts, over 76 percent of the planted area was affected, as indicated in Table 4. The households in the four

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districts of West, Central, Micheweni and Wete were the most affected. However, in the areas where land preparation and planting operations were timely performed, the growth condition of rice crop was good. This was the case in South district (Mtende and Muyuni), and North B (Mahonda).

Table 4: Average area of rice planted and proportion of area affected per household among surveyed rice growing households in nine districts.

Island District Rice field

Average areaplanted per household

(acres)

Average Area Affected per household (acres)

Proportion of areaaffected (%)

Unguja North A 1.05 0.8 76.2

North B 1.5 1.13 75.3

Central 2.2 1.92 87.3

South 0.67 0.21 31.3

West 1.09 1.01 92.7

Sub-total - Unguja 1.3 1.01 77.7

Pemba Micheweni 0.96 0.79 82.3

Mkoani 1.42 0.93 65.5

Wete 1.26 1.03 81.7

Chakechake 1.34 0.98 73.1

Sub-total - Pemba 1.25 0.93 74.4

Total Zanzibar 1.28 0.98 76.6

The results above provide a basis for projecting total acreage under rain-fed rice cultivation. The data in Table 5 indicate that out of 31,011 acres planted with rice, 23,743 acres were affected (equivalent to 77% of the planted area). This may impact negatively on rice yields and ultimately on the household food basket.

Table 5: Projected proportion of area under rice cultivation affected in 2011/2012 Masika cropping season

Location District Planted area (acres)Affected area acres %

Unguja North A 2,643 2,014 76North B 6,238 4,699 75Central 2,729 2,381 87South 192 60 31West 1,407 1,303 93

Sub-total - Unguja 13,208 10,261 78Pemba Micheweni 4,543 3,739 82

Mkoani 4,042 2,647 65Wete 5,387 4,404 82Chakechake 3,832 2,803 73

Sub-total - Pemba 17,804 13,246 74Total Zanzibar 31,011 23,743 77

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3.3: Estimated rice production

Rice production levels per district were projected based on the average household production estimates from the field findings. The results were then compared with production levels of the normal year (2010/11) to capture the variations (Figure 1). Overall, average rice yields dropped significantly from 0.71 tons/acre in 2010/2011 to 0.27 tons/acre in 2011/20112. The total annual rice production for the last Masika season 2010/11 was 22,018 tons harvested from 24,295 acres; whereas the estimated rice production for Masika 2011/2012 is 8,273 tons, which is equivalent to 38 percent of rice harvested in 2010/2011. Production levels in Pemba (5,093 tons) are higher than in Unguja (3,180 tons).

Figure 1: Comparison of projected rice production levels for current year (2011/2012) with the normal year (2010/2011)

North A North B Central South West Micheweni

Mkoani Wete Chake Chake

Normal year (2010/11)

1876.53 4428.6250000000

1

1937.448 136.32 998.615 3225.53 2869.465 3824.77 2720.72

Esti-mates for 2011/12

1134.4455

634.524 81.793 547.485 781.8785 459.31 2107.0925

1590.3 936.54

250

750

1,250

1,750

2,250

2,750

3,250

3,750

4,250

4,750

Rice

pro

ducti

on (t

ons)

It is worth to note that South district performed exceptionally in rice yields with estimated average of 2.9 tons/acre. Relatively, its rice production for this season is estimated at 547 tons as compared to 136 tons harvested in 2010/2011. This good performance is attributed by timely land preparations, early planting and use of farm inputs (improved seed, fertilizers and herbicides).

3.4: Affected rice farming households

The projected number of rice farming households affected by poor rice performance is 64,646 (91 percent of the farmers) – Table 6 As indicated above, the estimated rice

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production for Masika 2011/2012 was only 38 percent of rice harvested in 2010/2011, thus making all rice farming households vulnerable to food shortages. With an average household size of 5.5 this deficit will directly affect the food basket of estimated 355,553 people. It is further questionable if farmers will manage to keep seed for the oncoming season. Moreover, household food security of these households will be more destabilized if the performance of other alternative food crops deteriorate. Under such circumstances, the rice farming households will be in need of assistance to enable them reach the next harvest of Vuli 2012/2013 and thus prevent a further deterioration of their food situation.

Table 6: Estimated number of affected rice growing farmers/households

Island District Total number of rice growing farmers

Estimated number of farmers affected

Unguja North A 6,331 5,677

North B 9,337 8,256

Central 5,244 5,070

South 263 57

West 3,230 3,127

Sub-total – Unguja 24,405 22,186

Pemba Micheweni 9,985 8,897

Mkoani 13,817 12,792

Wete 11,160 10,219

Chake Chake 11,352 10,551

Sub-total – Pemba 46,314 42,460

Total Zanzibar 70,719 64,646

3.5: Field performance of other food crops

Household access to other locally produced food crops (cassava, bananas and sweet potato) and their related field performance were assessed on account of failure of rice crop production during the Masika 2011/2012 cropping season for rice farming households (Table 7). The assessment found that cassava was the most grown crop among rice farming households as evidenced by nearly 85 percent of the respondents, followed by banana (74%) and sweet potatoes (14%).

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Table 7: Average areas of other crops planted and proportion of area affected among surveyed households

The average land-holding size per household for cassava, banana and sweet potatoes was 0.82 acres, 1.58 acres and 0.27 acres respectively.

District Cassava Banana Sweet potato

Average Area

planted

(acres)

Average area

affected

(acres)

Area affected (%)

Average Area

planted (acres)

Average area

affected

(acres)

Area affected (%)

Average Area planted

Average area

affected (acres)

Area affected (%)

North A 0.6 0.38 63.3 0.63 0.5 79.4 - - -

North B 0.57 0.13 22.8 3.92 0.08 2.0 - - -

Central 0.3 0.08 26.7 0.22 0.11 50.0 0.05 0.03 60.0

South 0.4 0.15 37.5 0.67 - - - - -

West 0.56 0.06 10.7 0.15 - - - - -

Average for Unguja 0.48 0.16 33.3 1.09 0.14 12.8 0.01 0.01 100.0

Micheweni 1.26 0.54 42.9 5.88 4.78 81.3 1.08 0.54 50.0

Mkoani 1.55 0.45 29.0 0.85 0.27 31.8 0.34 0.09 26.5

Wete 1.05 0.25 23.8 0.6 0.24 40.0 0.63 0.19 30.2

Chake Chake 0.78 0.35 44.9 0.94 0.17 18.1 0.05 0.03 60.0

Average for Pemba 1.16 0.4 34.5 2.07 1.37 66.2 0.52 0.21 40.4

Average for Zanzibar

0.82 0.28 34.1 1.58 0.75 47.5 0.27 0.11 40.7

On average cassava had the lowest area affected per household as evidenced by only 34 percent of the area under cassava production compared to sweet potatoes (40%) and banana (48%). However, there was geographical disparity in the size of land affected for the assessed crops. As for cassava, North A district was in the lead with more than half of the planted area per household reportedly affected. Other districts with poor performing cassava fields were Chake Chake and Micheweni with proportion of land affected was 45 percent and 43 percent of cultivated area respectively. The least affected district was West with only 11 percent of planted area performing poorly.

The second other crop cultivated by rice farming households was banana. It evidently performed worst in Micheweni with 81 percent of cultivated land affected, which was closely followed by North A (79%) and Central (50%) districts.

Sweet potatoes were dominantly grown in Pemba by the time of the survey. Both Chake Chake and Micheweni districts had the highest proportion of land under sweet potato cultivation affected with 60 percent and 50 percent respectively. As for Unguja, most of the households were still preparing their fields for sweet potato production during the time of survey (end of June 2011).

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Overall, it was observed that banana, cassava and sweet potato were not seriously affected by the rainfall patterns compared to rice; thus reasonable harvests from other locally produced crops are expected to compensate the loss in rice crop experienced by the rainfed rice farmers.

3.6: Anticipated food situation for rice farming households

3.6.1: Household food availabilityAs established from previous sub-sections, the main crops available at household level during survey period were rice, cassava, banana and sweet potato. An analysis was conducted to estimate the amount of food to be harvested per rice growing household as shown in Table 8. In comparison to other cultivated food crops, rice which is the most preferred food in Zanzibar, recorded an extremely low production at the household level. On average, the estimated amount of rice to be harvested per household was 141 kg only, while the estimated household production for cassava and banana was 765 kg and 337 kg respectively.

Table 8: Expected amount of food to be available per household from own production for surveyed rice farming households during Masika 2011/2012

DistrictExpected total production per household in kg

Milled rice Cassava Banana

North A 87 672 457

North B 85 976 377

Central 85 800 467

South 218 584 729

West 119 1,200 257

Average Unguja 118 846 457

Micheweni 32 280 67

Mkoani 107 1,096 235

Wete 100 704 199

Chake Chake 58 576 242

Average Pemba 74 664 186

Average Zanzibar 99 765 337

Zanzibar’s per capita annual rice requirements is estimated at 110 kg11. Whereas the estimated annual household requirements12 is 575 kg, the anticipated rice production for the season 2011/12 is hardly 99 kg per household; a situation which points to the

11 Based on calculations extracted from tables of representative values of foods commonly used in tropical countries (Platt, 1985); and with assumptions that household food basket for Zanzibar consist of 50% rice. 12 Rural household size is 5.31

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household rice deficit among rice growing households. Given the high preference of rice to other food stuffs, the anticipated food deficit (465 kg) may increase dependency on food purchase among rice farming households. However, availability of other crops (cassava and banana) is expected to lessen the extent of food shocks.

In order to determine whether household food supply meets the household demand, household nutritional requirements13 were estimated (Table 9)14.

Table 9: Household food production and deficit in Kcal and Metric tonnes for surveyed households 2012

Food item Household Production in

(kg)

Food energy value (FEV) in

Kcal **

Household Production in

Kcal

Household requirement

(Kcal/year) ***

Household food deficit/surplus

(Kg)

Rice 141 3540 499,494 2,035,058 -434

Cassava 765 1530 1,170,909 1,017,529 100

Other staples* 337 1213 408,296 407,012 1

Total 1,243 6,283 2,078,699 3,459,598 -333

* Includes banana

** Extracted from tables of representatives values of foods commonly used in tropical countries (Platt, 1985)

*** Calculations based on the assumption of the contribution of each food to total calories intake: rice 50%, Cassava 25%, other staples 10%, maize 5% and fish 10%, however maize and fish did not included in the estimation

Comparing estimated household requirements with household expected food production, it is clear that overall expected production for 2011/2012 (2,078,699Kcal), is below overall food requirements (3,459,597 Kcal). This suggests that the rainfed rice households are at a risk of experiencing food shortages. If mitigation measures are not prepared in advance the situation might degenerate into food insecurity. The duration of expected harvest among the rice farming households was therefore examined to determine the extent to which own food supply will suffice household food needs.

3.6.2: Duration of household rice harvests and total food supplyTable 10 shows the duration of expected rice harvest. Apparently 24 percent of the rice farming households have lost all of their rice crop during the Masika 2011/2012 cropping season. In addition, 49 percent of the rice farming households responded that harvested rice would sustain them for less than two months. Only 12 percent of the respondents expected to have enough rice to sustain them for 3 months. Mkoani, Micheweni, North

13 Nutritional requirements of a household refer to the quantity of energy (Kcal), expressed on a daily basis that is necessary for people, when in good health, to develop and lead a normal life. Requirements vary according to age, sex, body weight, level of activity and physiological status (for example, pregnancy and lactation). Here they are expressed in the form of averages, did not taking into account individual variation.14 This table provides a very rough estimate of the dimension of demand and supply of major staple foods in household.

Details of the calculation are given in annex II.

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A, and Chake Chake districts had majority households with a rice harvest duration of two months.

Table 10: Household duration of rice harvests

District Household percent per duration of rice harvests

Zero months Up to 2 Months

3 Months ≥ 6 Months ≥ 1year

Chakechake 33 53 11 4 -

North A 31 63 - 6 -

North B 38 32 12 18 -

Central 30 34 23 13 -

South - 8 31 46 15

West 33 44 11 11 -

Micheweni 23 70 6 - -

Mkoani - 75 9 16 -

Wete 21 60 8 7 4

Average 24 49 12 13 2

A similar trend was observed in the analysis of duration of harvest for all food crops at the household level. As revealed by the results in Table 11, on average 45 percent of respondents estimate that the expected harvest would not last for more than two months. Only four percent of the respondents reported to have enough stocks to sustain them for more than a year.

Table 11: Percent households per duration of total household food supply

District Percent per duration of total household food supply

≤2 Months 3 Months ≥ 6 Months ≥ 1year

Chake Chake 58 26 11 4

North A 62 14 24 -

North B 35 37 27 2

Central 37 33 26 5

South 19 19 44 19

West 33 44 22 -

Micheweni 52 28 20 -

Mkoani 56 19 26 -

Wete 49 23 14 14

Average 45 27 24 4

Food purchases together with own production are critical factors that contribute to food availability for rural household. In view of the results presented in Table 11, it is evident

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that nearly half of rainfed rice growing households may experience food shortages before the next harvest. Consequently, food shortages will compel rice farmers to largely depend on food purchases to fulfil their domestic food requirements. This fact suggests that food shortages would inevitably restrict access to adequate food for rainfed rice farmers and the situation might turn into serious food insecurity if prices of staple food increase.

3.6.3: Time in which the affected households might face serious food shortagesTable 12 presents a comparison of harvest duration for normal Masika cropping season with the expected harvest in 2012. The comparison is based on the findings of Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis15 (CFSVA), and is conducted to establish time in which the affected households might face serious food shortages. The CFSVA established the duration of harvest for both Masika and Vuli seasons as three months for each farming seasons. Therefore, farming households tend to have a stable access to food in six months of the year and have to purchase food for the gap months.

Table 12: Comparison of harvest duration for masika cropping season between normal and expected harvest in 2012 and activity calendar

Parameters Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Duration of harvest in normal cropping season

Masika Harvest

Expected duration of harvest 2012

Masika Harvest

Expected food Shortage

Next expected harvest 2013

Expected Vuli harvest

Farm related activities

LPPlanting for

Masika season

Crop development Masika Harvest

Planting for Vuli season

Land preparation for Masika season (LP)

As illustrated further in Table12, the anticipated Masika 2011/2012 harvest was projected to sustain households food requirement for two months only (July and August) and thereafter farmers would be required to purchase food to cover food gap (September and December). This will be a critical time as more resources would be needed to cater for production costs in preparation for the forthcoming Vuli and Masika seasons, and other essential households expenditures. Next expected harvest is between January and March 2013, but this will only depend on the performance of rains in the proceeding Vuli season. More importantly, if there will be any problem with the next harvest, these households will be highly vulnerable to food insecurity for the rest of the year.

15 WFP, et al. Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis 2009/2010;

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4.0 RECOMMENDATIONSBased on the assessment, the following recommendations were made:

i. Provide rice seeds and other short-term planting materials to affected rainfed farmers. Since rice farmers won’t have sufficient reserve seed for planting next season owing to the extremely low harvests, timely provision of high yielding rice seeds coupled with fertilisers and herbicides to farmers in recommended rates is necessary. Considering a total of 31,011 acres planted under the rainfed farming system last season, an estimated 930 tons of rice seed is required for next 2012/13 cropping season though the MANR has allocated funds for procurement of only 570 tons16 of quality rice seeds covering both rainfed and irrigated farming systems. Seeds of rice varieties that performed well in the previous long-rainy season should be procured as soon as possible from reliable suppliers.

ii. Provide short-term varieties of planting materials of other food crops such as sorghum, cowpeas and maize may also be considered.

iii. Improve timely availability of subsidized mechanized tractor service delivery to fit with the rice crop cultivation activity calendar.

iv. Expedite special and targeted public assistance programs including providing relief food, food for work and cash for food schemes to prevent deterioration of the nutritional status of most vulnerable groups. However, a thorough investigation is urgently needed to identify the most vulnerable households who qualify to access the food relief.

v. There is also urgent need for Government to put more efforts in the improvement and expansion of irrigation and water harvesting infrastructures.

16 MANR Budget speech – 2012/2013; page 25.

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Annex 1: Questionnaire for rapid assessment of Rice harvest situation for 2011/2012 ‘Masika’ Season

A: Personal details:1) Name of household respondent………………………… Age…… Shehia …………. Tel.No.….

2) What is the number of household members?Age group (years) Female Male Total

0-5

6-17

>18 /Adults

Total

B: Rainfall performance 3) Describe is the Normal and Actual period in terms of months and week you received the rainfall

during this Masika season

Actual(Current season) Normal

a). On set ( Beginning of rainfall)

b) End of Rainfall a). On set ( Beginning of rainfall)

b) End of Rainfall

Month Month Month Month

Week Week Week Week

4) Was the Rainfall amount?: Tick the appropriate box

Normal Above Normal Below Normal

5) Was the rainfall distribution (Area coverage) : Tick the appropriate boxGood Bad Below Normal

6) What percentage of this Masika season crop production will contribute to the total food supply in the district? ………………………………………………………..

C: Food crop performance

7) Describe the current growth condition of five (5) major food crops you have in the garden

Food crop Above normal Normal Below Normal Reason if below normal

Rice

Cassava

Bananas

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Survey objectives:a) To generate information for forecasting the state of food situation in

Zanzibarb) To establish the proportion of farmers affected by the untimely and poor

distribution of Masika season rains c) To identify alternative coping strategies by farmers who will experience

Sweet potatoes

Yams

Coco yams

Pigeon peas

8) Which two major crops were significantly affected by the poor and untimely rainfall?………………………………………………………………………………………………

9) Of the total area planted (for the above mentioned crops), what proportion has completely failed or is performing poorly?

Crop Area planted Area growing poorly

10) If there is no more rain, will the condition of the major crops you grow remain normal? Tick appropriate option. Yes No

D: Food availability:

11) For each of the crops you planted during last and current crop season, state:

Crop Last crop season Current crop seasonArea planted

Amount harvested

Amount stored

Amount in the garden

Amount sold

Area planted

Expected yield

Rice Cassava Bananas Sweet potatoesYamsCocoyamsPigeon peas

12) For how long will the available food (stored and also in the garden) sustain the family?

1 month Before next harvest 3 Months 6 months ≥ 1 year

13) If you received tractor services, were they timely ?YesNo

14) State the total number of farmers who: ( To be completed by BEOs, DADOs and DA)

Accessed tractor services Are currently irrigating their farms per district

Size of land being irrigated

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E: Food Utilization

15) On average, how many meals do you have per day/normally?

Yesterday Normally State reasons if different from normal

1 2 3 and more 1 2 3 and more

F: Household food Access

16) What are your five normal sources of income? ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….

G: Coping strategies:

17) If you experience poor harvests (insufficient amount to last until next harvesting season), how do you plan to cope with the deficit?

Coping source Tick option mentioned

a) Seek casual labour for cash

b) Sell livestock

c) Sell other valuable household items

d) Borrow food

e) Expecting gifts from social networks

f) Begging

g) Other (Specify)……………

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Administered/Completed by:…………………………………………………………Designation/Title:………………………………………………………………..Date:………………………………………………………………….

A B C D E F G H

Food item Household Production in

(kg)

Food energy value (FEV) in

Kcal/kg **

Household Production in

Kcal

Assumption of basic food basket***

Contribution to Daily Calories

Requirements per food per year

Household annual Kcal requirement

Household annual food

Requirement in (Kg)

Household food deficit/surplus in

Kg

Rice 141.1 3540 499,494 50% 1050 2,035,057.5 575 -434

Cassava 765.3 1530 1,170,909 25% 525 1,017,528.75 665 100

banana 336 1213 408,295.8 10% 210 407,011.5 336 0

Maize - - - 5% - - -

Fish - - - 10% - - -

TOTAL 1,242 2,078,699 100 3,459,597.75 -334

** Extracted from tables of representatives values of foods commonly used in tropical countries (Platt, 1985)

*** Consumption of maize and fish did not considered in this estimationA: household production data estimated from survey results

B: Food energy value (FEV) in Kcal Extracted from tables of representatives values of foods commonly used in tropical countries (Platt, 1985)

C: (A x B)

D: Assumption based on experience of the Ministry staff

E: (B x D)

F: (E x 365 x no. of people in rural household 5.31 )

G: F /B

H: A – G

Annex 2: Annual food requirements and food deficit

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