Assessing the Potential of Geographic Markets

fka The Effectiveness of Distant Recruiting Efforts

By Gillian ButlerStudent Affairs Research & Information

University of California, Davis

CAIR 2001Sacramento, CA

SARI Report 222.A

Number of HS Graduates in June 2000: Top Ten CA Counties

Source: CA Dept of Education

8764

9306

11206

11231

13795

15628

18966

25681

26897

77301

Contra Costa

Fresno

Sacramento

Alameda

Santa Clara

Riverside

San Bernardino

San Diego

Orange

Los Angeles

Number of Hispanic HS Graduates in June 2000: Top Ten CA Counties

Source: CA Dept of Education

3116

3140

3840

5835

7096

7400

7522

35977

2472

2275Tulare

Ventura

Kern

Santa Clara

Fresno

Riverside

San Bernardino

San Diego

Orange

Los Angeles

Number of African American HS Graduates in June 2000:

Top Ten CA CountiesSource: CA Dept of Education

509

521

682

866

1213

1295

1742

1792

1988

8354

Orange

Santa Clara

Solano

Contra Costa

Riverside

Sacramento

Alameda

San Diego

San Bernardino

Los Angeles

Percentage of Enrolling Students Who Chose UCD Because They "Wanted To Live

Near Home"Source: CIRP Survey of Incoming Freshmen, 1976 - 1997

14% 14%15%

16% 16%

1%

1976 1986 1988 1991 1994 1997

Percentage For Whom Being Close to Home is “Very Important", by Ethnicity

Source: CIRP Survey of Incoming Freshmen, 1997

28% 28%26% 26% 25% 25%

23% 22%

18%14%

9%

Academic Image of UC Davis by Admits' Home Locations

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Inte

llect

ual

Back-

up s

chool

Challe

nging

Prest

igio

us

Not w

ell-k

nown

Caree

r-orie

nted

Selec

tive

Academ

ic

Local Bay Area Central Northern CA Southern CA

Social Image of UC Davis by Admits' Home Locations

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%Local Bay Area Central Northern CA Southern CA

http://www.sariweb.ucdavis.edu/factbook/countymap.htm

Number of Applications, Admits, and Enrolled Students by Marketing Region, 1998 -'99 through

2000-'01(Fall Freshmen from HS)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

UCD Local UCD Bay UCI UCLA UCR UCSD

Applied

Admitted

Enrolled

68%

39%

63%

31% 59%

14%66%

22%61%

15% 61% 21%

Number of Applied, Admitted, and Enrolled Hispanic Students by Marketing Region

1998 - '99 through 2000 - '01(Fall Freshmen from HS)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

UCD Local UCD Bay UCI UCLA UCR UCSD

Hispanic

Applied

Admitted

Enrolled

65%

46%

61%

32%

64%

18%

Number of Applied, Admitted, and Enrolled African American Students by Marketing Region

1998 - '99 through 2000 - '01(Fall Freshmen from HS)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

UCD Local UCD Bay UCI UCLA UCR UCSD

African-American

Applied

Admitted

Enrolled

57%

43%

51%

31%

43%

17%

Potential Eligibles:

Completed the course sequence required for admission to a UC or CSU school

Percentage of Total June 2000 Potentially Eligible by Marketing Region

Source: CA Dept of Education

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

UCD Local UCD Bay UCI UCLA UCR UCSD

Total Graduates

Potential Eligibles

31%

41%

38%

36%

27% 36%

Percentage of Total June 2000 HS Graduates Potentially Eligible by Ethnicity

Source: CA Dept of Education

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

AmericanIndian

Asian Filipino Hispanic AfricanAmerican

White

Total Graduates

Potentially Eligible

9%

58%

45%

22%

25%

40%

Percentage of Hispanic June 2000 HS Graduates Potentially Eligible by Marketing Region

Source: CA Dept of Education

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

UCD Local UCD Bay UCI UCLA UCR UCSD

Hispanic

Total Graduates

Potential Eligibles

18%21%

16%

26%

18% 21%

Percentage of African-American June 2000 HS Graduates Potentially Eligible by Marketing Region

Source: CA Dept of Education

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

UCD Local UCD Bay UCI UCLA UCR UCSD

African American

Total Graduates

Potential Eligibles

19% 27%

25%

29%

21%22%

Cesa & Carnegie “Using Logistic Regression to Predict Which Admits Will Register”

“Detailed tables of odds that focus on specific groups . . . are helpful in planning recruitment strategies for those specific groups.”

Logistic Regression Models

Bivariate Logistic Regression Two separate models: one to predict

admission, & one to predict enrollment

Multiplied probability of admission by probability of enrolling to get probability of applicant enrolling.

Deviation coding: Results are comparative, not absolute

Maximum Possible Enrollments

Multiplied probability of enrolling by relative number of “Potential Eligibles” to derive Maximum Possible Enrollments

MODEL: All ApplicantsProbability of Enrolling by Number of Potential

Eligibles

  UCD Local

UCD Bay

UCI UCLA UCR UCSD

Probability of an applicant enrolling from this region vs. from UCD Local

.25 .19 .09 .08 .13 .12

Number of Potential Eligibles in this region

14430 24465 10232 27924 9227 9891

Maximum possible enrollments

3608 4625 875 2153 1190 1221

MODEL: Hispanic ApplicantsProbability of Enrolling by Potential

Eligibles

  UCD Local

UCD Bay

UUCI UCLA UCR UCSD

Probability of an applicant enrolling from this region vs. from UCD Local

.25 .19 .09 .09 .13 .11

Number of Potential Eligibles in this region

1493 3067 1193 9318 2375 1828

Maximum possible enrollments

373 580 102 827 306 199

MODEL: African-American ApplicantsProbability of Enrolling by Potential

Eligibles

  UCD Local

UCD Bay

UCI UCLA UCR UCSD

Probability of an applicant enrolling from this region vs. from UCD Local

.25 .17 .07 .07 .14 .15

Number of Potential Eligibles in this region

558 1195 126 2391 665 403

Maximum possible enrollments

137 207 8 175 90 61

Conclusions The Bay Area is the strongest market

for total applicants Local and Bay Area regions combined

have same potential as LA County for Hispanic enrollments

Of all southern CA markets, only LA County has strong potential for Hispanic enrollments

Bay Area has the strongest potential for African-American enrollments