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CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP

Assessing the impact of climate variability and change on mining in South Australia South Australia Workshop, 20 th June 2014

The Science Exchange, Adelaide

Jane Hodgkinson1, Barton Loechel1, Cecilia Woolford2, Steven Crimp1

EP146845

September 2014

CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Energy Flagship, Minerals Resources Flagship

Outback Communities Authority, Government of South Australia

Citation

Hodgkinson, J.H., Loechel, B., Woolford, C., Crimp, S, 2014, Assessing the impact of

climate variability and change on mining in South Australia, South Australia Workshop

20th June 2014, the Science Exchange, Adelaide. CSIRO Report EP146845

Copyright

© Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation 2014. To the extent

permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by

copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the

written permission of CSIRO.

Important disclaimer

CSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general

statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware

that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific

situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without

seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent

permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees and consultants) excludes all

liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses,

damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly

from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material

contained in it.

Contents

Acknowledgments .............................................................................................................................................. 6

Executive summary............................................................................................................................................. 7

1 Introduction and background ............................................................................................................... 9

1.1 Project aims ................................................................................................................................ 9

1.2 South Australia Far North region geography and geology ......................................................... 9

Climate Trends .................................................................................................................................... 11

Future Climate ..................................................................................................................................... 14

2 Project Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 19

2.1 Workshop aims ......................................................................................................................... 19

2.2 Workshop structure .................................................................................................................. 19

2.3 Workshop format ...................................................................................................................... 19

2.4 Participants: .............................................................................................................................. 19

2.5 Presentations ............................................................................................................................ 20

3 Results ................................................................................................................................................. 24

3.1 Small and large group discussions ............................................................................................ 24

4 Discussion and conclusion ................................................................................................................... 27

4.1 Future leadership ...................................................................................................................... 29

4.2 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 29

References ........................................................................................................................................................ 31

Appendix A Mineral Industry Snapshot ....................................................................................................... 33

Appendix B Agenda ...................................................................................................................................... 34

Appendix C The research team .................................................................................................................... 35

Assessing the impact of climate variability and change on mining in South Australia | 5

Figures 1-1 South Australia Far North region (source South Australia Government, undated, p. 135) ....................... 10

1-2 Trends in annual rainfall for the period 1960 to 2013. Areas coloured yellow to brown have experienced declines in mean annual rainfall, whereas areas coloured light to dark green have experienced increases in mean annual rainfall (Source Bureau of Meteorology, 2014b) ............................... 11

1-3 Trends in annual rainfall for the period 1960 to 2013. Areas coloured yellow to brown have experienced declines in mean annual rainfall, whereas areas coloured light to dark green have experienced increases in mean annual rainfall (Source Bureau of Meteorology, 2014b) ............................... 12

1-4 Trends in temperature for the period 1960 to 2013. (Source Bureau of Meteorology, 2014b) ............... 13

1-5 Likely extent of future temperature change at 2030 derived from 23 climate models and 3 emission scenarios. (Source OzClim 2014) ...................................................................................................................... 15

1-6 Likely extent of future rainfall change at 2030 derived from 23 climate models and 3 emission scenarios. (Source OzClim 2014) ...................................................................................................................... 16

1-7 Likely extent of future temperature change derived from the 50th percentile climate model values at 2030 for 3 emission scenarios. (Source OzClim 2014) ..................................................................................... 17

1-8 Likely extent of future rainfall change derived from the 50th percentile climate model values at 2030 for 3 emission scenarios. (Source OzClim 2014) ..................................................................................... 18

Acknowledgments

CSIRO would like to acknowledge the Outback Communities Authority (OCA) who provided support and co-

leadership for this project. Both CSIRO and OCA wish to acknowledge and thank the assistance of all those

involved in the execution of this project including the participants and presenters, in addition to Mark

Sutton, Brenda Honan and Byron Gough. OCA is formally part of the Government of South Australia

Department of Planning, Transport and Infrastructure (DPTI) and acknowledges their support in this

project.


Executive summary

On 20th June, 2014, CSIRO and the Outback Communities Authority (OCA) ran a workshop for mining industry participants to explore climate related impacts and adaptation in their industry in the Far North region of South Australia, extending into part of the Eyre Peninsula Region. The workshop builds on previous work performed by CSIRO with the Australian mining industry to explore climate impacts and the needs, drivers and barriers for adaptation that will identify and optimise opportunities, and reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events and climate change (for example Moffat, 2009, Loechel et al., 2010, Hodgkinson et al., 2010, Loechel et al., 2011, Loechel et al., 2013, Hodgkinson et al., 2014, Loechel and Hodgkinson, 2014).

Climate change poses a potential range of threats and opportunities for mining regions in Australia. Although the industry has proven to be adaptive and partially resilient in the past to climate-related disruptions, the increased frequency or severity of extreme events that mines are now exposed to will likely cause longer annual downtime, disruption to production, processing and other components of the supply chain, reduced productivity, more expensive repairs and increased risk to reputation and stakeholder confidence. The industry is therefore becoming more engaged in activities that may inform the adaptation process.

This workshop was one of a suite of workshops held in the mining regions across Australia (Loechel et al., 2010, Loechel et al., 2011, Loechel et al., 2013) for informing industry and research in mining adaptation needs and experiences. The key purpose of this workshop was to explore the key risks, impacts, vulnerabilities and opportunities of the Far North region of South Australia, in addition to discussing adaptation capacity and activities in the region. Invitations were also extended to participants in the Eyre Peninsula Region who also had mining industry interests connected with the Far North region.

Participants represented almost all nodes of the mining supply chain including extraction (mines), exploration, energy, ports, local government groups, investors, environment, transport and research. Using this mining supply chain approach is valuable because it helps focus on the linkages between different nodes of the chain and takes account of upstream and downstream events when action or impacts occur at a particular node. The process aims to provide an integrated understanding of how the region as a mining system works, and how it will be affected by climate extremes and change.

The methodology used included: desktop research and data gathering; a workshop to present the findings of a range of stakeholders already engaged in adaptation in mining and related industries; and discussion groups at the workshop to collate the views and experiences from stakeholders. During the workshop, participants were provided with a selection of high-importance messages from industry, research and government presenters, and then provided input into sectoral and cross-sectoral discussions.

One of the key messages from participants was an interest in adapting to climate impacts in order to retain market share, and whilst government policy may eventually play a part in the process, any immediate action will need to be undertaken autonomously by industry participants and/or by cross-sectoral action. Many impacts were seen by participants to already affect cross-sectoral boundaries, and therefore that adaptation could be beneficial to multiple users if driven and managed collectively.

The South Australian climate is expected to continue to warm and dry, with greater incidence and severity of extremely hot days, and a continued decline in winter rainfall, whilst frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events are expected to increase flooding events. These trends pose threats to mining-related activities in South Australia, particularly profitability, productivity, reliability and safety.

Continued mining growth expected in South Australia will substantially increase demand for water, energy and transportation infrastructure. Given the changing climate, considerable thought will need to be made to plan for future operations to ensure future business continuity is not jeopardised.

Financial institutions are expected to increasingly apply greater scrutiny on preparedness of mining operations and their associated supply chains for future extreme weather events.

The most common past impacts identified by workshop participants related to intense rainfall, extreme heat, high winds, lightning and fire. Each posed threats to health and safety in addition to damage to mines and supply chain infrastructure, disruption to operations and business continuity, and reduced productivity and ultimately, profits.

A large portion of the workshop was devoted to identifying potential adaptation actions. It was clear that many participating companies and related organisations already undertake measures to deal with extreme weather events. They were also able to identify a wide range of additional measures and strategies that will be important for combating impacts from climate change in the future.

Main concerns included water scarcity and future water use, viewed in the context of increasing demand from a growing industry (and increasing demand from other sectors). Related to water use was power demand, required to enable reuse, treatment or recycling of water, including increased pumping. Additionally, the protection of electricity and telecommunication transmission networks from electrical and wind storms will also increase in importance. Transportation infrastructure was also seen as vulnerable and measures that strengthen engineering design standards and maintenance regimes were viewed as essential. Other measures to prepare for climate change included improved modelling and monitoring, improved communication networks, connectivity and knowledge sharing, and collaboration between different organisations or sectors to share the cost of adaptation. Potential impacts and adaptation options identified by participants are summarised in Table 1.

Participants made a clear call for leadership on climate change adaptation in the mining sector in South Australia. Leadership was not seen as necessarily originating in government or the political sector and there were a range of views of where it was most likely to arise. Participants identified that there is a growing appreciation generally of the risks the mining industry will face, and it was suggested that those with the greatest appreciation of such risks may become the main leaders in future. The activities and knowledge generated in other domains such as water, energy, transport and risk should also encourage autonomous adaptation by mining companies.

Participants identified that cooperation and coordination of efforts between regional stakeholders could have a potentially powerful support role to building adaptive capacity in the sector. Importantly, leaders of regional communities and industry stakeholder working collectively, have the potential to be quite effective in building awareness and providing guidance to government policy for adaptation.


1 Introduction and background

1.1 Project aims

The project aimed to:

Develop and improve participant knowledge of climate adaptation processes, thinking, experience and knowledge in the South Australia mining community

Discuss by sector climate related events that have occurred in the past

Discuss by sector adaptation processes that are already occurring

Have inter-sectoral discussions to explore the impacts the region may face in the future

Discuss options and future requirements for dealing with climate impacts in a way that will optimise opportunities whilst reducing risks such as those to productivity and stakeholder confidence

Identify key pathways to adaptation, including barriers and drivers to further work, leadership and possible activities in this area.

Explore synergies of common purpose within the SA mining industry for adaptation

1.2 South Australia Far North region geography and geology

The Far North region of South Australia covers an area of 799,850km2, which is more than half of the geographical area of the State. Geographically it consists of the Simpson Desert, the Tirari Desert, the Painted Desert and the Pedrika Deserts in addition to the Great Victoria Desert, which dominates to the north and northwest of the state.

There are five Local Government Areas within the Far North region: Outback Communities Authority, District, Council of Coober Pedy, Port Augusta City Council, Roxby Council and The Flinders Ranges Council. The region also contains all five of South Australia’s priority mining exploration regions: The Gawler Craton, Adelaide Syncline, the Musgrave block, the Stuart Shelf and the Curnamona Province which includes the Cooper Basin (RDAFN, 2014).

Population across the state of around 1.6 million was reported in the 2011 census of which, 29,880 are permanent residents in the Far North region (ABS, 2011), although many more are temporary residents, typically associated with mining operations, tourism and the transitory Aboriginal communities (South Australia Government, undated). The largest city in the Far North region, by population, is Port Augusta with around 14,000 residents (ABS, 2011), providing a major service centre for the local and Far North areas.

Commodities mined in the region include iron, copper, gold, silver and uranium, in addition to coal, mineral sands, opal and many other minerals. As at April 2013, the Far North had seven major mines, nine developing mines and 13 prospects (Deloitte, 2013). Expansion in the Far North mining sector has potential to provide significant opportunities for the regional community. Development aims are to ensure that where possible, mining infrastructure will be beneficial to the entire community and other industries (Deloitte, 2013). The region generates more than $3bn p.a. for the State’s economy and this is expected to grow as mining activities expand over the next 10 years (South Australia Government, undated).

1-1 South Australia Far North region (source South Australia Government, undated, p. 135)

For mine site distribution, see Appendix A

The oldest rocks in South Australia are typically in the south in the central Eyre Peninsula and Tarcoola areas consisting of shale, limestone and ironstone intruded by granites and granodiorites of about 2500 million years in age (Ma). Early-middle Proterozoic age (2500-1100 Ma) iron ores and jade hosting sediments are found near Middleback Range and Cowell, in addition to similar age volcaniclastics and igneous intrusions probably related to activity that formed the Olympic Dam copper-uranium-gold deposits (Geoscience Australia, 2012). Younger sedimentary rocks of 1100-500 Ma that formed on marine shelves and within rifting and subsiding basins provided marine and evaporitic sediments in addition to a 24 km thick succession that were later folded and metamorphosed (altered) and intruded by granites and where important deposits such as gold and copper deposits are found. Widespread glaciation (500-233 Ma) is recorded by glacial till, sand and clay south of Adelaide while coal is found of this age in the north. Swamps in the Tertiary to Cretaceous (233-65 Ma) have left coal deposits in the northeast of the State and oil is also found in the north. Shale and sandstone deposits of this age represent a marine transgression and some of these rocks at Coober Pedy now host opals. During the Jurassic period (175-145 Ma), Australia parted from Antarctica and a shallow marine environment deposited sand and marine fossils, now visible in limestone cliffs along the Murray River. River and lake deposits accumulated in subsiding basins that now host


building materials and brown coal. More recent processes led to dunes and playa lakes (salt) such as Lake Eyre and Lake Frome. Around 4800 years ago, Mount Gambier erupted, depositing basalts and tuffs in the area (Atlas of South Australia, 1986).

Climate Trends

The Far North region of South Australia experiences an arid climate. The northern and western parts are extremely arid and are the most sparsely populated areas, typically hosting extensive cattle stations or they are protected as national parks or Aboriginal lands. Average annual rainfall across the entire state is approximately 175 mm, with a strong south to north gradient. In the south, mean annual rainfall is approximately 288 mm with some isolated areas receiving in excess of 360mm. The northern extent of the rainfall gradient annual rainfall can range between 7mm in the northeast to 133 mm in the northwest (BoM 2014a). Rainfall variability (calculated as the 90th rainfall percentile minus the 10th rainfall percentile divided by the 50th percentile – as measured by BoM) is also aligned in the same south to north gradient with extreme year-to-year variability in the north and low to moderate rainfall variability in the south.

Over the last 50 years seasonal, annual and decadal changes in rainfall have occurred across much of the State. Much of the higher rainfall coastal region has experienced declines of between 5 and 15 mm per decade (Figure 1-2), whilst large areas in the north of the State have experienced slight increases in annual rainfall of between 5 mm and 15mm per decade (Figure 1-2).

1-2 Trends in annual rainfall for the period 1960 to 2013. Areas coloured yellow to brown have experienced declines in mean annual rainfall, whereas areas coloured light to dark green have experienced increases in mean annual rainfall (Source Bureau of Meteorology, 2014b)

Trends in seasonal rainfall show marked differences, with autumn and winter showing consistent patterns of rainfall decline over most of the State (Figure 1-3). During the summer season mean rainfall has increased over much of the State, whereas in spring, a narrow area along the coastal fringe has experienced rainfall declines. A study that reviewed rainfall intensity in South Australia identified that intensity of rainfall increases as duration of a rainfall event increases. Rainfall intensity is higher in the summer than in winter in South Australia when summer rainfall is cyclonic (Kamruzzaman et al., 2012).

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cdo/about/about-stats.shtml

1-3 Trends in annual rainfall for the period 1960 to 2013. Areas coloured yellow to brown have experienced declines in mean annual rainfall, whereas areas coloured light to dark green have experienced increases in mean annual rainfall (Source Bureau of Meteorology, 2014b)

Average daily mean annual temperatures for the State are between 13oC in the southeast to 22oC in the northeast, with considerable spatial and seasonal variation. Across all of the State mean annual temperatures have increased by between 0.05 and 0.3oC per decade (Figure 1-4). This indicates that mean annual temperatures are between 0.25 and 1.5oC warmer than they were in the early 1960’s.

The rate of warming has been greatest for maximum temperatures, with an average rate of warming cross the State of 0.28oC per decade. Minimum temperature changes have been more modest with an average rate of warming cross the State of 0.19oC per decade (Figure 1-4).

Summer Autumn

Spring Winter


Across seasons, both spring and summer appear to be warming at a more rapid rate that either autumn or winter.

1-4 Trends in temperature for the period 1960 to 2013. (Source Bureau of Meteorology, 2014b)

In 2013 the mean temperature for South Australia as a whole was 1.6°C above the long-term average. This resulted in the warmest year on record for South Australia (more than 0.4 °C warmer than the previous record set in 2009) with several sites around the state observing their hottest year on record.

Annual mean temperature change

Annual minimum temperature change

Annual maximum temperature change

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/sa/summary.shtml#recordsAvgHigh

Adelaide (Kent Town) had an annual mean temperature of 18.3°C, which is 1.0°C above the long-term average and the equal second warmest with 2009 for Adelaide, and only slightly less than the hottest year on record for Adelaide in 2007 when the annual mean temperature was 18.4°C.

Future Climate

The South Australian climate is expected to be generally warmer with more extreme, hot days and typically less rainfall in some areas. Projections are given relative to the period of 1980-1999 (referred to as the 1990 baseline for convenience). The projections below give an estimate of the average climate for the 30 year period centred on 2030, taking into account consistency among climate models. Individual years will show variation from this average.

The 50th percentile (the mid-point of the spread of model results) provides the central values derived from 23 different climate models whereas the 10th and 90th percentiles shows the lowest 10% and highest 10% of the spread of model results, respectively. Figure 1-5 and 1-6 therefore provides an estimate of the range of possible future climate conditions based on the model uncertainty and the variations in concentrations of future releases into the atmosphere of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other pollutants (emission scenario)

At 2030 the range of possible warming is between 0.3°C and 2°C depending on climate model and emission scenario. From this analysis it is clear that the differences in extent for 2030 warming are driven largely by model differences, with little variation in the pattern of warming across the three emission scenarios.


1-5 Likely extent of future temperature change at 2030 derived from 23 climate models and 3 emission scenarios. (Source OzClim 2014)

1-6 Likely extent of future rainfall change at 2030 derived from 23 climate models and 3 emission scenarios. (Source OzClim 2014)

Projected changes in 2030 rainfall are also very large range with projected changes of between +10% and -40% change in annual rainfall. As with temperature change, the large range of possible future rainfall change is due to the differences in response for each of the climate models as opposed to the change resulting from different emissions scenarios.

In order to reduce the range of uncertainty we opted to present the 50th percentile model projects. This allowed us to present the mid-point of the spread of model results. Based on this approach the rate of warming expected at 2030 is between 0.6°C and 1.5°C. As with the observed data the greatest warming is projected to occur during summer and spring, with more modest warming in autumn and winter (Figure 1-7).


1-7 Likely extent of future temperature change derived from the 50th percentile climate model values at 2030 for 3 emission scenarios. (Source OzClim 2014)

At 2030, the 50th percentile rainfall projections of between 2 and 7% across most of the country. Declines in rainfall are projected to be largest in winter and spring with the majority of the State experiencing declines of up to 10% (Figure 1-8).

Potential evapotranspiration is projected to increase over South Australia. Evapotranspiration is the combination of evaporation from soil and water surfaces, and transpiration from vegetation. When these changes are combined with the projected declines in rainfall, an increase in aridity and drought occurrence is likely. Climate projections show an increase in daily precipitation intensity and an increase in the number of dry days, suggesting that future rainfall patterns will have longer dry spells interrupted by heavier rainfall events.

1-8 Likely extent of future rainfall change derived from the 50th percentile climate model values at 2030 for 3 emission scenarios. (Source OzClim 2014)

Other projected climate changes with potential to impact agriculture in South Australia include:

• increases in hours of sunshine in winter (due largely to projected lower rainfall)

• small decreases in relative humidity

• small decreases in wind speed during winter, and increases during other seasons

Vulnerability to changes in severe weather varies regionally. Some of the potential changes that may impact South Australia include:

• higher bushfire risk;

• fewer cool-season tornadoes; and

• increased heatwave frequency.


2 Project Methodology

A workshop was conducted with regional stakeholders from the mining industry, mining services sector, utilities providers, state and local government, researchers and representatives of community, to explore the implications of climate variability and change for the Far North region of South Australia. A full-day workshop was held in Adelaide on 20 June 2014 (22 participants). The event involved a series of presentations by industry, research and government experts, followed by discussions that focused on historical impacts from weather events, future expected impacts from climate change, and both historical and potential future adaptation actions. These topics were similar to those investigated in previous workshops examining mining adaptation in other mining regions of Australia (Loechel et al., 2010, Loechel et al., 2011, Loechel et al., 2013). The workshop agenda is provided in Appendix B.

2.1 Workshop aims

The workshops had three aims:

To provide relevant background information and concepts to the participants in relation to climate

variability and change in South Australia, and potential techniques and strategies for adaptation.

To explore the implications of these data for each of the sector groups represented and across the

mining supply chain, through structured small and large group discussions.

To help develop a network of stakeholders in the Far North region of South Australia to engage in

collaborative adaptation planning in the future.

2.2 Workshop structure

There were three main components of the broader process: a desktop regional climate assessment presented in this report, the workshop itself, and a follow-up feedback survey to gauge satisfaction with the workshop. The first component was undertaken prior to conducting the Adelaide workshop to gain an understanding of the region. The workshop included three main components: expert presentations, climate impacts discussions, and discussions on adaptation expectations and needs.

2.3 Workshop format

A broad range of mining industry and ancillary suppliers, government, regional and community organisations either located within or in some way involved with the Far North region mining industry were invited to the workshop. Invitations were sent through a range of channels, mainly by OCA, including by direct email invitation and circulation through formal and informal means.

Workshop participants were first assigned to their respective sectoral group (industry, utilities/infrastructure and mining services, and governance) for some of the discussions to explore sectoral-specific implications. Later, mixed groups were formed allowing multi-sectoral discussions to explore cross-sectoral issues.

2.4 Participants:

A total of 21 participants attended the workshop including representatives of mining companies (6), mining services (3), utility providers (2), government agencies and regional governanace organisations (10). The workshop enjoyed the participation of a broad range of mining stakeholder organisations including: mining

companies (Santos, BHP Billiton, Oz Minerals, Adelaide Resources), utilities and infrastructure providers (Altona Energy, Flinders Ports), industry services (SACOME, Regnan), State Government agencies/regulators (OCA, DMITRE, DEWNR), regional natural resource management (EPICCA, SA Arid Lands), Regional Development Australia, and climate adaptation specialists (SEED Consulting, CSIRO).

2.5 Presentations

A number of invited industry, research and government speakers provided information relevant to climate change adaptation in the mining industry in South Australia. A summary of main points from each of the presentations follows.

2.5.1 SOUTH AUSTRALIAN RESOURCES INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Nigel Long, Director, Corporate Social Responsibility, South Australian Chamber for Minerals and Energy (SACOME): provided an overview of recent growth in the SA mining industry and the need to expand the mining infrastructure supply chains across the state, particularly energy, water and transportation.

The SA mining industry has grown from 5 major operating mines in 2000, employing around 2600

workers, and comprising 12% of the state’s exports, to 19 major mines in 2014, employing over

13,000 people and comprising 37% of the state’s exports.

The state’s oil and gas sector produces from 2 main ‘hydrocarbon basins’ (Cooper and Otway),

employs 2274 people and is continuing to expand, particular in unconventional extraction projects.

The main mineral and petroleum commodities produced by value in SA are: copper (34%), iron ore

(21%), oil (12%), gold (8%), uranium (6%), and natural gas (5%).

While the SA mining industry ranks reasonably on a number of competiveness indicators, it has

performed poorly on rankings of infrastructure access and availability.

SA mining is projected to show significantly increased demand for energy (electricity and gas) and

water, while road, rail, port and air usage is projected to quadruple.

There is therefore a great need for new and expanded infrastructure supply in coming years.

2.5.2 POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINABLE MINING DEVELOPMENT IN SA

Catherine Way, Industry Development Manager, RenewablesSA, Department for Manufacturing, Innovation, Trade, Resources and Energy (DMITRE): gave an insight into renewable energy sources currently being taken up and of potential value to mining operations in SA in the future.

The major renewable energy sources that mining companies are expected to invest in, worldwide,

over the next decade are solar PV and wind, with geothermal becoming of increasing importance as

the technology becomes more commercially viable

The cost of energy production from renewable energy sources is becoming increasingly competitive

and has other advantages for mining in terms of remote operation

Some of the main concerns mining companies have in relation to utilising renewable energy are:

o Return on investment from upfront cost of the required infrastructure often does not meet

the typical five year ROI timeframe for mining projects

o Perceptions of reliability problems

o Some renewable energy technologies require significant quantities of fresh water for

operation, which is typically in low supply in remote arid locations


2.5.3 CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS IN SA

Mark Howden, Chief Research Scientist, Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO: provided an overview of some of major trends in global climate change as well as future projections for South Australia.

Atmospheric CO2 levels are higher than any time in human experience (>100,000 years) and

anytime in the last 800,000 years.

The average global temperature for each decade has been warmer than the previous decade for

the last five decades.

Given current emissions trajectories, global warming is likely to continue rather than stabilising at

2oC as previously hoped.

South Australia is getting warmer: The average temperature of the coolest years over the last two

decades (1993-2013) in South Australia have been warmer than the average temperature of the

warmest years over the two decades 1950-1970.

Other projected climatic changes and climate-related events include: Increased temperature

extremes; reduced winter rainfall in southern Australia; possible increased rainfall in northern

Australia; increased rainfall intensity and variability; reduced river flows (on average; but increased

flood risk due to greater intensity of rainfall events); increased evaporation; increased fire risk;

increased sea level rise and consequent storm surge levels.

Climate adaptation should be core business: in terms of both reducing risks and maximising

opportunities.

The consequence of not matching strategy and operations to the climate being experienced is

either underperformance and/or increasing risk.

2.5.4 SOUTH AUSTRALIA’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK

Rohan Hamden, Manager Climate Change Partnerships, Dept of Environment, Water and Natural Resources (DEWNR): described the South Australian Government’s highly awarded Climate Change Adaptation Framework which includes the following elements:

a regional planning focus, ensuring accountability at the appropriate level

Regional Integrated Vulnerability Assessments leading to Regional Adaptation Action Plans

involves high levels of community engagement to achieve regional ownership

facilitates least cost decisions at a regional scale using local knowledge

requires co-investment and shared risk between State and regional communities

supports adaptation by government, business and community

links agencies to regional adaptation planning

utilises a whole-of-government and adaptive management approach

currently all 12 regions in SA are at various stages of completion of their RAAP

The Framework has achieved a number of awards including the NCCARF Adaptation Champion

2013

2.5.5 OPERATING IN A VARIABLE CLIMATE

Paul Claydon, Carbon Commercial Adviser, Carbon and Sustainability, Santos: provided an overview of Santos’s approach to climate change adaptation including gas as a transition fuel, managing climate risks through an integrated governance approach, and practical case-studies of heat stress and flood risk management.

Global energy consumption is expected to increase around 30% by 2030 – the majority of growth

from low and medium income countries

Natural gas will be important in the transition from high to low greenhouse gas emissions intensive

energy use

Santos has been assessing climatic risks to its operations for the past 60 years as it operates in

locations within Australia and regionally which already experience impacts from climatic events

Climate change risks and opportunities are integrated into the standard risk management

processes of the organisation

Risk areas assessed include: safety, environmental, community, commercial, legal, financial and

reputational

The aim is to understand, manage and monitor climate change risk and develop appropriate

adaptation strategies for business

Santos’ operations are experienced in planning for extreme weather events such as heat waves and

floods; however they additionally incorporate climate change projections into this planning.

2.5.6 ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE: WHY AND HOW? AN INVESTOR PERSPECTIVE

Alison George, ESG Engagement Manager, Regnan: explained the perspective of various financial institutions on climate change adaptation in the mining industry.

Traders such as hedge funds, ‘quants’ and algorithmic traders are sophisticated investors who

speculate on market outcomes.

o They seek to profit by speculating on novel data such as weather derivatives

o They also speculate on the weather risk management of companies – they can make

money as much from company poor performance as good performance

Insurers, reinsurers and actuaries: are focussed on correctly pricing risk because they lose money if

they misprice risks.

o Insurers (especially reinsurers) were among the first financial market players to take

climate change seriously, because they can identify climate change in their claim trends.

o Insurers are now integrating climate change projections in their risk pricing tools, increasing

scrutiny and granularity of their client risk assessments and adjusting premiums or refusing

to insure accordingly

Lenders, ratings agencies and regulators:

o Lenders provide money at a fee (interest) that includes a risk calculation

o Ratings agencies also calculate the risk associated with debt securities (multiple loans

bundled together and on-sold as an ‘asset’ with a revenue stream)

o Banks and regulators also assess aggregate or systemic risk – risk that has repercussions in

other parts of the economy

o Risk calculations are increasingly including an assessment of climate-related risks – the

potential for a borrower to default on a loan due to a climate-related event (flood, fire,

drought etc.)

o Higher risks attract a risk premium, such as higher interest rates on a loan or reduced sale

price of debt securities

Institutional investors such as superannuation and pension funds, sovereign funds and

endowments

o These institutions provide the bulk of equity capital (by purchasing company shares)


o They are ‘universal’ investors in that they are so large, holding equity/shares across most

sectors of the market, that they have limited capacity to escape risks in the system

o Funds are mandating that managers consider exposure to climate risk in the companies

they assess for potential investment

o Accordingly, they are undertaking research and developing tools to more rigorously assess

the extent to which companies are taking action to adapt to climate change

o In aggregate these investors represent the consensus on a stock or asset. Stocks and assets

that fail to demonstrate adaptation actions will be rated higher risk/lower value until

eventually the stock or asset drops out of the institutional investors’ universe, replaced by

a more climate fit alternative.

Mining companies need to understand, manage, monitor and communicate about their climate

risks to not only improve business resilience but to satisfy the probing questions of financiers.

2.5.7 ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE – CREATING A POSITIVE DIALOGUE FOR THE FUTURE

Mark Siebentritt, SEED Consulting Services, Sustainability and Adaptation: presented an empowering methodology, called ‘Adaptation Pathways’, which diverse organisations and communities can use to manage climate change adaptation.

The methodology

o identifies the appropriate timeframe within which particular types of decisions are best

made

o incorporates community engagement in the decision-making process

The process helps segment, simplify and make more manageable, community decision-making

about climate change adaptation – overcoming what can be a disempoweringly complex planning

issue

Community engagement and workshop interaction helps create ownership and interest (partly

because it’s FUN!)

3 Results

3.1 Small and large group discussions

A range of sector-specific tables (mining companies; infrastructure/utilities/mining services; and governance) and later, mixed-sector tables, were convened to discuss issues around management of past and future climate risks and adaptation options. Whole-group discussions were then held on future system planning and emerging lessons.

3.1.1 SECTOR SPECIFIC GROUPS

The sector specific table groups were asked to discuss two aspects: past experiences with weather or climate-related impacts and current risk reduction and adaptation strategies and techniques.

Past experiences

Mining companies identified major past impacts as arising from intense rainfall and flooding, extreme heat, storms (high winds and lightning) and fire. The main types of impact that these events had on mining operations was damage to infrastructure (notably to transport infrastructure from flooding) and disruptions to operations or business continuity. Extreme heat was mainly seen as an OH&S issue, also leading to disruptions to business continuity.

The infrastructure, utilities & mining services group identified impacts to:

Mine infrastructure – damage, disruption/downtime (similar to above)

Ports – disruption/downtime from wind and storm surge; heat as an OH&S issue

Power supply – extreme heat and , storms (high winds and lightning) causing outages and fires

The governance group similarly identified the threats to mining operations and supply chains from floods, heat, storms and fire. They identified operations with a short-term planning horizon as most severely impacted because they tend not to take as many precautions to protect themselves against (infrequent) extreme weather events.

Current Risk Reduction and Adaptation measures

The mining company and infrastructure, utilities & mining services groups identified similar approaches to dealing with climate-related hazards currently:

Early warning systems for extreme weather events

Preventative measures such as avoidance, evacuation and risk mitigation

OHS policies (e.g. training, work scheduling)

Equipment: emergency/ disaster response

The governance group identified instances of:

inter-agency coordination to prevent, prepare and respond to events

integrated, longer-term land-use planning that is cognisant of climate change projections

likewise, preventative measures such as avoidance, evacuation and risk mitigation


3.1.2 MIXED SECTOR GROUPS: FUTURE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Following the separate sector discussions, a proportion of participants from each of the three sectors tables dispersed to form three mixed-sector table groups. The three groups were then asked to identify and discuss adaptation strategies to deal with future climate change.

Group 1

This group identified the following types of adaptation strategies as important for dealing with future climate change:

Developing alternative water sources, technologies and use share arrangements

Technology and infrastructure investment

o For example: dry mining; flood water capture and storage; automated processes to remove

people from difficult and/or dangerous working conditions

o Need to explore arrangements to enable sharing of infrastructure costs and use

Communication, connectivity & knowledge sharing

Modelling and monitoring – to quantify likely impacts and adaptation strategies

Resource management: understanding competing demands for resources among multiple users

Workforce planning – to minimise impacts (especially extreme heat) on employees

Engineering design standards & maintenance – to ensure suitability for future conditions

Group 2

Clever water management with regards to both supply and quality

Technology & infrastructure investment (e.g. dry processing, low energy processing, desalination)

Developing alternative solutions

o For energy and water supply/use – the two are often related

o For transportation options – need some redundancy/duplication in the system to ensure

cost effective alternative routes when the main route is disrupted

Resources assessment and use management e.g. water, aquifers

Integrate/ collaborate with other industries to improve common infrastructure

Group 3

Mines in remote areas to become more self-reliant

Address cumulative impacts of multiple operations

o E.g. water usage; roads

Prepare for more frequent extreme weather events

Identify alternative methods, technologies, facilities and solutions

o Especially to enable business continuity when one system fails

3.1.3 WHOLE-GROUP DISCUSSION: FUTURE ADAPTATION LEADERSHIP

In the final session, a whole-group discussion took place on the issue of future leadership in mining adaptation in South Australia and is discussed further in Section 4.1. During the discussion, participants were concerned about identifying where leadership was needed and from which stakeholder groups this leadership was likely to arise. The important sites of future leadership were identified as:

Industry leading from within

o Autonomous adaptation, industry champions

o Because mining companies and supply chain operators have sufficient reason and

incentives to do so

o Will also be driven by ‘functional domains’ such as water, energy, risk, OH&S, emergency

management, etc

Government

o Mining adaptation may not be government’s highest priority, but still may provide

instances of leadership

o Some specific government agencies may be supportive

o Local government is often important

Regional collaboration

o Community-based leadership, cross-sectoral engagement & integration

o Working together, regional leaders can effectively influence government

o Need for engagement, information and communication activities

Institutions

o Financial (banks/lenders, investors, insurance)

o Judicial (legal liability, courts)

Consultants

Industry associations


4 Discussion and conclusion

The South Australian climate is expected to continue warming, with greater incidence and severity of extremely hot days, and to continue drying, with ongoing decline in winter rainfall. Despite the overall drying trend, the incidence and intensity of heavy rainfall events, and therefore flooding, is expected to increase. These trends pose particular threats to the profitability, productivity, reliability and safety of mining and mining-related activities in South Australia.

This study has identified that continued mining growth expected in South Australia will substantially increase demand for water, energy and transportation infrastructure.

Given the changing climate, mining companies and infrastructure providers will need to give considerable thought to how best to design infrastructure and undertake their operations and processes to ensure future business continuity is not jeopardised, reduce reputational risk and improve stakeholder confidence.

It is clear that financial institutions will increasingly be applying greater scrutiny to how well-prepared mining operations and their associated supply chains are for future extreme weather events. Banks, insurance companies and investors will be casting an ever more critical eye over the risks that climate change poses to the operations they are being asked to support. Speculative derivative traders may not be concerned whether a company is poorly prepared for climate impacts and change as financial benefit and opportunity can still be derived in such markets from a company’s misfortune. Nevertheless, implementing adaptation practices will reassure investors that the company has a commitment to future productivity that takes account of climate change.

Workshop participants identified a range of past impacts from climate-related events. Most common were those relating to intense rainfall (flooding), extreme heat, storms (high winds and lightning) and fire. These types of events typically posed threats to worker health and safety, damaged mine and supply chain infrastructure and disrupted operations. These impacts could thereby lead to severe disruptions to business continuity. Therefore, climate change, where these types of extreme weather events are expected to increase, poses a threat to some of the core objectives of mining companies: the safe, reliable and efficient conduct of business.

A large portion of the workshop was devoted to identifying potential adaptation actions: measures that could be taken to minimise the risks from climate change and to take advantage of any opportunities (Table 1). It was clear that companies and related organisations already undertake a range of measures to deal with extreme weather events (early warning systems, preventative and risk mitigation measures, OH&S policies, equipment). However, the workshop participants were able to identify a wide range of additional measures and strategies that will be important for combating climate change.

One of the main concerns identified as the South Australian climate becomes dryer was water scarcity. Considerable attention was given by all the multi-sectoral groups to strategies, technologies and techniques to improve water-use efficiency and/or utilise alternative water sources. Future water use was also viewed in the context of increasing demand from a growing industry where it will become increasingly important to manage the cumulative impacts of multiple users on the resource.

Related to water use was power demand. Some technologies that enable reuse or recycling of water, treatment to make it fit for purpose, or utilisation of alternative sources, such as saline aquifers, can be quite energy intensive. Increased pumping, treatment and/or desalination of water will increase demand for energy and therefore of the need for technologies and infrastructure that improve energy use efficiency. This is especially important in the context of the potential for hotter conditions that tend to reduce the efficiency of electricity transmission. Protecting transmission networks from the impacts of electrical and wind storms that increase the risk of outages and fires will also become more important.

Table 1 Summary of adaptation options identified by workshop participants

Event Impacts and issues Adaptation options

Drought, reduced rainfall and recharge

Water scarcity and power demand requirements for recycling, reuse

Review of water use and management; water sharing, resource assessments; identify alternative sources; dry mining; water capture during flood for use during drought

Electrical and wind storms Protection of electricity and communications transmission networks

Improved communication and power networks; need for common infrastructure investment with non-mining

Flood, storms Transportation infrastructure; mine site damage; power demand requirements for recycling, desalination, pumping

Strengthen engineering design and standards; strengthen maintenance regimes; improved modelling and monitoring; alternative transport routes and options; need for common infrastructure investment with non-mining; alternative and reliable power supplies

Various events Cost of adaptation Collaboration between organisations and sectors

Various events Knowledge and planning Sharing of knowledge and connectivity across sectors

All events Adaptation leadership Champions, supply chain members with incentives to lead and organise

Transportation infrastructure such as roads, rail and air and seaports were also seen as vulnerable. Measures that strengthen engineering design standards and maintenance regimes to ensure suitability for future conditions and/or provide alternatives, such as redundancy/ duplication of routes or facilities, were viewed as essential to prevent transport system failure and the massive disruption to operations this brings.

Other more generic measures to prepare for climate change included:

General preparations for more frequent extreme weather events

Improved modelling and monitoring to better quantify likely impacts, especially cumulative

impacts, as well as potential adaptation options

Communication, connectivity and knowledge sharing between relevant organisations, and

Collaboration between different organisations or sectors to share the cost of providing important

infrastructure and equipment that multiple sectors will benefit from


4.1 Future leadership

There was a clear call for leadership among participants on climate change adaptation in the mining sector in South Australia. However, this leadership was not necessarily seen as originating in government or the political sector, with a range of views of where it was most likely to arise. Certainly, the greater emphasis on climate change risk management by financial institutions that support the mining industry and its supply chains, together with growing consultancy activity in this field, and perhaps prominent cases in the judicial realm where legal liability is fought through the courts, should all lead to a growing appreciation of the risks by the mining industry itself, such that they become the main leaders in future. Other sectors and domains of activity relevant to the mining industry, such as water, energy, transportation, risk, OH&S, emergency management, environment and so on, will also be separately responding to the risks and opportunities presented by climate change in the future. The activities and knowledge generated in these domains should also encourage autonomous adaptation by mining companies.

Apart from the mining industry and its related sectors, it was noted that regional level collaborations on adapting to climate change could potentially provide leadership on the issue, including having influence on government policy and/or actions. Regional community and stakeholder leadership, through communication, engagement, information sharing and collaboration on adaptation initiatives relevant to the mining sector, could build awareness and capacity in the sector. Further, regional stakeholder leaders working together were seen as having a potentially powerful role in influencing government agencies and authorities to provide supportive actions, if not directly influence policy.

4.2 Conclusion

The changing climate will bring a range of challenges to the South Australian mining industry and related supply chains and communities in the decades ahead. Increased incidence and severity of extreme weather events such as heat waves, intense rainfall and flash flooding, drought and high winds pose risks to health and safety, infrastructure, and business continuity, and therefore, future business productivity and profitability.

All industry participants need to be assessing their risks now, as well as potential opportunities, in order to take advantage of time, which is needed to adapt effectively. It is clear from the information provided above that many financial institutions that provide services to, or simply trade listed mining companies, are already making their own assessments, with the potential for financial penalty in some form or other for those companies that are not planning for climate change.

Many impacts already affect cross-sectoral boundaries, and adaptation is seen to be beneficial to multiple users if driven and managed collectively. For better informed assessment and subsequent decision-making, mining companies will benefit from including a range of other relevant organisations in their discussions, including other mining companies, up- and down-stream suppliers, customers, consultants, local communities and governance and regulatory organisations. Similarly, other providers and nodes in the mining chain will benefit from consultation with the whole mining chain. The cross-sectoral discussions will be important for identifying multi-user adaptations that can suit the broader industry and community. Additionally inter-state discussions would be prudent where successful delivery of resources rely on transport routes beyond South Australia. The introduction of more automated processes may simplify routines and procedures and extract useful information from existing data, assisting adaptation.

It would also appear particularly valuable for mining industry organisations to connect with other related sectors that are already active in climate adaptation, such as the water, natural resource management, disaster management, risk management, local and regional governance, and climate adaptation research sectors. Engaging with the ideas and approaches being advanced in these sectors will provide a useful knowledge base and basis for comparison and action in the mining sector.

A key message from participants was that adapting to climate impacts to retain market share is important, and whilst government policy may eventually play a part in the process, any immediate action will need to be driven by industry participants and cross-sectoral partnerships.


References

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Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), 2014a, South Australia in 2013: A year of extreme heat and record high temperatures, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/sa/summary.shtml accessed 4 July 2014

Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), 2014b, South Australia, Climate Data Online http://www.bom.gov.au/, Accessed 1 July 2014

Deloitte, 2013, Regional mining and infrastructure plans (RMIPs), Interim report for public comment, http://www.infrastructure.sa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/97712/RMIP_Factsheet_Far_North_May_2013.pdf accessed 4 July 2014

Geoscience Australia (2012) Shaping a nation: A geology of Australia, Ed. R.S. Blewett, Geoscience Australia, Australian National University Press, Canberra

Hodgkinson, J.H., Hobday, A.J. and Pinkard, E.A., 2014, Climate adaptation in Australia’s resource-extraction industries: ready or not? Regional Environmental Change 14:1663-1678 doi:10.1007/s10113M-014-0618-8

Hodgkinson, J.H., Littleboy, A., Howden, M., Moffat, K. and Loechel, B. 2010, Climate adaptation in the Australian mining and exploration industries: Project introduction and initial findings. CSIRO Report P2009/2093, March 2010.

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Loechel, B., and Hodgkinson, J.H., 2014, Climate impacts and adaptation in Australian mining communities: industry and local government views and activities, 2013 follow-up survey, CSIRO Report EP14694 Loechel, B., Hodgkinson, J.H., Moffat, K., 2011, Pilbara regional mining climate change adaptation workshop, report on workshop outcomes, CSIRO Report EP118134

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Appendix A Mineral Industry Snapshot

o 19 major operating Mines

o Employment 13,135

o AU$600m p.a.

o 37% AU$3.9 bn (2013)

Source: Dr Nigel Long, South Australian Resources Industry Overview, SACOME, 2014

Appendix B Agenda


Appendix C The research team

Jane Hodgkinson, Geologist, CSIRO. Jane has worked for CSIRO for 7 years and has

been leading the project that is looking at climate adaptation in Australian mining

since 2009. With her interest in mining, hazards and environmental issues she has

also been involved in climate related impact adaptation methodologies around mine

sites.

Barton Loechel, Social Scientist, CSIRO. Over the past five years Barton has engaged

with a broad range of mining industry stakeholder groups and scientific disciplines to

investigate how mining industries, enterprises and communities can better adapt to

climate change. Barton has extensive knowledge of rural and regional issues, having

expertise in regional natural resource management planning, rural community

development, farming systems and agribusiness, and regional governance systems.

Cecilia Woolford, Chair of the Outback Communities Authority. Cecilia brings

experience from both Australian private and government sectors, and is recognised

for her ability to negotiate and build collaborative decision making forums between

corporate institutions, government and NGOs. Cecilia is the Chief Executive of the

Eyre Peninsula Integrated Climate Change Alliance (EPICCA).

Steven Crimp, CSIRO Climate impacts scientist Steven Crimp is a climate impacts

scientist with CSIRO’s Agriculture Flagship and has 15 years experience analysing

climate variability and change impacts and adaptation options for Australian Primary

Industries. This has involved research assessing the implications of climate variability

and change on rangeland productivity, commercial seedling establishment, grazing

animal heat stress, crop production, catchment hydrology, coastal vulnerability,

Mining operations and the interaction between climate variability and climate change

on decadal and multi-decadal timescales. He has been a contributing author and

expert reviewer of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third

Assessment Report on Climate Change in 2001 and continued in an expert review

capacity for the IPCC fourth and fifth Assessment reports.


CONTACT US

t 1300 363 400 +61 3 9545 2176 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au

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FOR FURTHER INFORMATION

Division/Unit Name Jane Hodgkinson t +61 7 33274118 [email protected] w www.csiro.au/Mineral Resources Flagship

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