Assessing Progress in Africa towards the

Millennium Development Goals,

20092nd Joint Annual Meeting

AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance&

ECA Conference of Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development

Kasirim NwukeChief, MDGs/Poverty Analysis & Monitoring SectionUnited Nations Economic Commission for AfricaAddis Ababa, Ethiopia

Cairo, Egypt, June 2-7, 2009

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Outline of Presentation

IntroductionTracking ProgressConclusionsRecommendations/Way

forward

I. Introduction Continued progress towards the MDGs

Progress varies by region and is uneven on some goals

High level support for the MDGs Report of the UN Secretary-General’s MDG Africa Steering Group UN High-level Event on MDGs resulting in the MDGs Call to Action UN Secretary-General’s MDG Gap Task Force Report

Improvement in available data for monitoring and reporting progress towards the MDGs

Challenges emerged in 2008 Fuel crisis Food crisis Global financial and economic crisis

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I. Introduction, cont’d On specific goals and targets

Progress in reducing poverty headcount to stall or be eroded Slow progress towards full employment Primary education enrolment target on track Primary completion target not to be achieved at current rate of progress Positive trend towards gender parity in primary education but not so

much in secondary and tertiary education Progress towards the heath goals remains a serious challenge Improved but uneven access to water supply and sanitation Significant gaps in fulfilling the global partnership for development

Report argues that current global and financial crisis presents special challenges and recommends that African Countries should adapt their macroeconomic policies to fit the special circumstances

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II. Tracking Progress

Positive changes have been noted on indicators used to track and report progress

Improved quality of data mainly due to stepped-up efforts of the Inter-Agency Expert Group and national data producers

Remaining data shortage for tracking progress on a number of targets

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II. Tracking Progress, Goal 1Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

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Target 1A: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1.00 (US) a day – debate on the appropriateness of the measure remains

Target 1B: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people – target unlikely to be achieved with current trends

Indicator 1.4:

Growth rate of GDP per person employed

Positive labour productivity growth in all regions, except in East Africa Positive growth rate of GDP per person employed sustained in few countries, decline in rate noted in conflict-ridden countries, overall limited progress across the continent

Indicator 1.5:

Employed-to-population ratio

Modest increases in North Africa Marginal decrease in all other regions

II. Tracking Progress: Goal 1, cont’d

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

African Region Region of theAmericas

South-East AsiaRegion

EasternMediterranean

Region

Western PacificRegion

1990-1999 2000-2006

Target 1C: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger – under current trend, Africa is unlikely to reach this target by 2015

Indicator 1.8:

Prevalence of underweight children under-five years of age

18 countries reported improvement, 7 countries reported deterioration. Data available for 25 countries only

Indicator 1.9:

The proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption

West African on track to halve the proportion of people suffering from hunger by target dateLow levels of undernourishment in North Africa Central and East Africa account for the bulk of Africa’s undernourished

Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, cont’d

Source: WHO World Health Statistics, 2008

Percentage of children under five who are underweight for their age between 1990-1999 to 2000-2006

II. Tracking Progress: Goal 2

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Target 2A: Ensure that by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling – under current trend, most African countries are likely to achieve universal enrolment by 2015

Indicator 2.1:

Net enrolment in primary education

As of 2006, 9 countries have net primary enrolment rate above 90%Some countries have shown reversal in enrolment rate

Indicator 2.2:

Primary completion rates

Overall rising primary completion rates

Indicator 2.3:

Literacy rates of 15-24 year olds, women and men

Rate above 90% in 13 countriesRate between 80-90% in 5 countriesRate below 50% in 3 countries

Achieving universal primary education

Source: ECA Computations based on UNSD data as updated in July 2008.

Net Primary enrollment and Primary Completion rate for selected African Countries

II. Tracking Progress: Goal 3

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Target 3A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015 – under the current trend, most African countries are on track to achieve gender parity in primary education, but it is highly unlikely that they will reach the secondary and tertiary education parity targets

Indicator 3.1:

Ratios of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education

By 2006, 11 countries at the primary and secondary and 8 countries at the tertiary education levels have achieved gender parity 10 countries have a gender parity index below 0.50 in tertiary education

Indicator 3.2:

Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector

Very limited data available, only 6 countries provided information on the share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector in 2006

Indicator 3.3:

Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament

34 countries have shown an increase in percentage between 1990 and 2008 while 4 countries shown a decline in the percentage

Promote gender equality and empower women

II. Tracking Progress: Goal 4

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Target 4A: Reduce by two thirds between 1990 and 2015 the under five mortality rate – under current trend, the continent as a whole is unlikely to meet this target except for North Africa

Indicator 4.1:

Under five mortality rate

Strong disparities among the sub-regions, with North and West Africa making good progress and Central and East Africa lagging behind

Indicator 4.2:

Infant mortality rates

Many countries have made some progress in reducing neo-natal death between 1990 and 2006

Indicator 4.3:

Proportion of 1 year old immunized against measles

Increase in proportion since 2000 12 countries reported above 90% coverage rate 5 countries reported below 50% coverage rate

Reduce child mortality

Source: ECA Computations based on UNSD data as updated in July 2008.

Progress in Under-five mortality rates

EgyptMorocco

LibyaTunisia

EritreaMalawiAlgeria

Cape VerdeComoros

MozambiqueEthiopiaMauritiusSeychelles

MadagascarGuineaNamibiaSomalia

TogoTanzaniaGambiaSudan

DjiboutiSenegal

NigerBenin

Cote d'IvoireNigeria

Guinea-BissauUganda

MaliRwanda

Sierra LeoneMauritania

Burundi

Sao Tome and P rincipe

GabonBurkina Faso

GhanaZambia

Central African Republic

ChadCameroon

South AfricaEquatorial GuineaCongoKenya

LesothoZimbabwe

SwazilandBotswana

-100.00 -50.00 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00

1990-2005

1990-2006

II. Tracking Progress: Goal 5

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Target 5A: Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio – assessing progress towards this target remains a challenge

Indicator 5.1:

Maternal mortality ratio

In SSA, no significant improvement in reducing maternal mortality ratio between 1990 and 2005

Indicator 5.2:

Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel

From 1990 to 2005, in North Africa, increase in percentage from 45 to 79 Inadequate data to measure progress in other parts of Africa

Improve maternal health

Source: World Health Statistics 2008

Maternal Mortality Ratio by Region, 1990 and 2005

II. Tracking Progress: Goal 5 cont’d

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Target 5B: Achieve universal access to reproductive health by 2015 – target added in 2007

Indicator 5.3:

Contraceptive prevalence rate

Low contraceptive prevalence rates for married people 8 African countries among those for which data are available report over 50 percent prevalence rate Vast majority of countries that provided data reported a rate that ranges from 8 to 19%

Indicator 5.4:

Adolescent birth rates

35 countries reported a decline in adolescent birth rates 10 countries reported an increase in adolescent birth rates

Indicator 5.5:

Antenatal care coverage (at least one visit and at least four visits)

By 2005, over 26 countries had a coverage rate of above 80 percent for at least one antenatal visit 10 countries had a coverage rate below 80 percent 7 countries have reported on the recommended four antenatal visits and have an average coverage rate of 52%

Indicator 5.6:

Unmet need for family planning

Very limited data available, only 3 countries provided relevant information in 2006

Improve maternal health, cont’d

II. Tracking Progress: Goal 6

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Target 6A: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS – under current trend, the continent has halted the spread of HIV/AIDS

Indicator 6.1:

HIV prevalence among population aged 15-24 years

In SSA, decrease of prevalence rate by 5% HIV/AIDS related deaths fell from 2 to 1.4 million (2001 to 2007) New HIV infections fell from 3 to 2.7 million (2001 to 2007)

Indicator 6.2:

Condom use at last high-risk sex

By 2006, 15 countries reported a 42% usage rate for women By 2006, 7 countries reported a 52% usage rate for men

Indicator 6.3:

Proportion of population aged 15-24 years with comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS

Comprehensive data not available

Indicator 6.4:

Ratio of school attendance of orphans to school attendance of non-orphans aged 10-14 years

Comprehensive data not available

Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other diseases

II. Tracking Progress, Goal 6 cont’dTarget 6B: Achieve by 2010, universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS for all those who need it – the overall number of Africans accessing ART has increased

Indicator 6.5:

Proportion of population with advanced HIV infection with access to ART drugs HIV/AIDS

In North Africa, the proportion of HIV patients who received ART increased from 24 to 32% (2006 to 2007), In SSA, the proportion of HIV patients who received ART increased from 21 to 30% (2006 to 2007) SSA is estimated to have gained about 2 million years of life from ART coverage

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Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other diseases ,cont’d

0

10

20

30

40

North Africa West Africa Central Africa East Africa Southern Africa

%

Figure 13:Antiretroviral therapy coverage among people with advanced HIV infection

2006 2007

Antiretroviral therapy coverage among people with advanced HIV infection

Source: ECA computations based on UNSD data as updated in July 2008

II. Tracking Progress: Goal 6 cont’d

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Target 6C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases – under current trend, the region will fall short of the targets

Indicator 6.6:

Incidence and death rates associated with malaria

No available data on incidence and death rates

Indicator 6.7:

Proportion of children under 5 sleeping under Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs) and Proportion of children under five with fever who are treated with appropriate anti-malaria drugs

All SSA countries for which data is available show increases in ITNs use among children under 5 16 out of 20 countries have at least tripled their ITNs coverage since 2000 In 22 SSA countries, the proportion of children treated with anti-malarial medicines dropped from 41% to 34% (2000 to 2005)

Indicator 6.9:

Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under Directly Observed Short Course Treatment (DOTS)

Incidence rates are decreasing Mortality rates dropped from 86 to 77 per 100,000 in East Africa and from 65 to 33 per 100,000 in Central Africa from 2003 to 2006Prevalence and mortality rates are on the increase in Southern Africa, even after the introduction of DOTS

Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other diseases ,cont’d

II. Tracking Progress: Goal 7

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Ensure environmental sustainability

Target 7A: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources – general trend towards reduced CO2 emission per capita in almost all African countries

In the majority of African countries the consumption of toxic substances related directly to negative environmental impact have decreased over the last reporting period 9 African countries have ratified and a further 44 countries have accessed the Montreal Protocol 12 African countries have ratified, 23 countries have accessed and a further 7 have accepted the Montreal Amendment

Target 7B: Reduce biodiversity loss, achieving by 2010, a significant reduction in the rate of loss – the continent seems to be on track in reducing biodiversity loss

27 African countries registered a positive change in the proportion of protected areas during the period 1990 to 2007

II. Tracking Progress: Goal 7 cont’d

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Ensure environmental sustainability, cont’d

Target 7C: Halve by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation – under current trend, the targets for access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities will not be reached

Indicator 7.7:

Proportion of population using an improved drinking water source

In 2006, the proportion of people using an improved drinking water source was 60% or more in 24 countries Egypt, Botswana and South Africa, the proportion is close to 100% Ethiopia, Mauritania, and Mali report the largest rate of improved

Indicator 7.8:

Proportion of people using an improved sanitation facility

Continued progress in most countries relative to 1990 rates, while a few countries show regression In 21 SSA countries, only 16 percent in the poorest quintile have access to improved sanitation

Target 7D: By 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers – Improvement seen in the majority of African countries,

Indicator 7.9:

Proportion of urban population living in slums

Only 8 African countries have demonstrated a worsening in slum conditions over the period 1990 to 2005

II. Tracking Progress: Goal 8

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Develop a global partnership for development

Target 8A: Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system – limited progress

Africa’s share of world trade decreased from around 6% to slightly less than 2% (1980s to 2007) As of 23 July 2008, 42 African countries are members of the WTO, while 9 other countries are negotiating accession Africa is increasingly involved in south-south trade and cooperation: trade with China increased approximately by 45% -export: 54% and import: 36%- ( 2007 to end of 2008) Progress in promoting intra-African trade is slow

Target 8B: Address the special needs of the least developed countries – slow progress

LDCs continue to face barriers in their trade with the developed countries Share of duty-free exports of LDCs to major European and American markets stands at 79% well below the targeted 97%

II. Tracking Progress: Goal 8 cont’d

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Develop a global partnership for development: Debt & Aid

Target 8D: Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries through national and international measures in order to make debt sustainable in the long term – progress in dealing with the high debt burden of African countries 2005 Gleneagles G-8 Summit: Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) 20 African countries are at post HIPC completion point, 8 are between decision and completion point and 5 are at pre-decision point at the end of January 2009 ODA to Africa gained momentum during the 4 years following the Monterrey Conference in 2002. ODA to Central, East, South and West Africa rose annually by 9% (2002 to 2006) ODA from African countries to other African countries is also growing Progress towards aid effectiveness is still slow

Source: OECD/DAC ,6April 2009

ODA to Africa from DAC members, 1990-2007

II. Tracking Progress: Goal 8, cont’d

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Develop a global partnership for dev’ment: Technology/infrastructure

Target 8F: In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communication – No quantitative targets identified, but progress is quite significant

Indicator 8.14:

Fixed telephone line per 100 population

Some progress in North, West and East Africa, no progress in Central Africa and regression in Southern Africa (1990 to 2006)

Indicator 8.15:

Cellular subscribers per 100 population

More than an additional 65 million subscribers in 2006Increase evident in all sub-regions in 2006

Indicator 8.16:

Internet use per 100 population

Most progress in North Africa followed by West Africa and Southern Africa in 2006 Lowest internet penetration in Central Africa in 2006

Source: ECA Computations based on UNSD data as updated in July 2008

Internet users per 100 population by sub region

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

North Africa West Africa Central Africa East Africa SouthernAfrica

2000

2006

III.Global Financial & Economic Crisis Challenges facing Africa aggravated by financial crisis

Fall in the global demand for Africa’s exports and therefore of export revenues

According ECA and AUC estimates, growth in Africa is likely to decelerate to 3.6% in 2009

Consumer prices have risen significantly

Crisis poses significant challenges to securing successes already achieved

Crisis could present significant future debt burden for countries by increasing debt service and limiting fiscal space for governments to increase investments in MDGs-critical areas

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IV. Conclusion There is progress but it is not sufficiently broad based; Quality and timeliness of of MDGs-relevant data are

improving; Progress is slowest on the human development

indicators – especially health Progress threatened by significant downside risks –

food, financial and economic crisis, and possible panic reaction to the crisis

Significant within country and sub-regional divergence in levels/rates of progress;

Global financial and economic crisis threatens efforts made to achieve the MDGs;

Slow progress on global partnership – significant gap between commitments and action on aid and trade.

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RECOMMENDATIONS Continue to strengthen statistics – timeliness and availability of data; Re MDG 1, consider carefully the long-term consequences of the

emerging practice of dedicated leasing fertile agricultural lands to non-domestic investors.

Consider safety net and social protection measures Avoid sudden policy reversals but adapt macroeconomic policies to fit

current circumstances while ensuring policy credibility and inter-temporal sustainability;

Maintain MDG-based planning efforts and vigorously implement MDGs-based national development plans;

Consider the sub-regional dimensions of MDGs interventions especially as they relate to (sub)regional public goods;

Explore innovative financing sources – property taxes, carbon taxes - to scale up public sector investments in order to achieve the MDGs

Cascade MDGs-based development plans and poverty reduction strategies to sub-national jurisdictions (states, provinces, districts) to address within country disparities in progress;

Promote peer-learning & knowledge and experience sharing23

THANK YOU

www.uneca.orgwww.african-union.org

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