‘Assessing mitigation pathway risk and uncertainty: case studies in the Netherlands, Kenya and Chile’

Friday 18th November, 12.30 to 14.00

European Union Pavilion, Area D, Blue Zone

In this workshop we will be presenting the TRANSrisk approach to developing low emission transition pathways, and practical application of this work to a ‘post-Paris’ world. Three case

studies will be presented, with the audience invited to participate and give feedback:

• Netherlands: Transition pathways in the livestock sector

• Chile: Emissions and air pollution reduction in Santiago de Chile

• Kenya: the role of renewable energy in transition pathways

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TRANSRISK S IDE EVENT

Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

18th November 2016 @ COP22, Marrakech

Assessing mitigation pathway risk and

uncertainty: case studies in Netherlands,

Kenya and Chile

Speakers:

• Jenny Lieu (Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU), University of Sussex, UK)

• Eise Spijker (JIN Climate and Sustainability, the Netherlands)

• Annela Anger-Kraavi (Cambridge Econometrics, UK)

• Matthew Halstead (Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands)

• Tim Suljada (Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Sweden)

• Luis E. Gonzales-Carrasco ( Pontifical Catholic University, Chile)

14 CASE STUDY COUNTRIES

America1. Canada (SPRU)2. Chile (CLAPESUC)

Europe3. Sweden (SEI)4. Netherlands (JIN)5. UK (SPRU)6. Poland (IBS)7. Austria (Uni Graz)8. Switzerland (ETHZ)9. Spain (BC3)10. Greece (NTUA/ UPRC)

Africa11. Kenya (SEI)

Asia12. China (SPRU)13. India (SPRU)14. Indonesia (SEI)

1. Netherlands: livestock sector

3. Chile: emissions and air pollution in Santiago

2. Kenya: role of renewable energy

Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

‘Assessing mitigation pathway risk and uncertainty: case studies in

the Netherlands, Kenya and Chile’

18th November 2016 @ COP22, Marrakech

Eise Spijker

JIN Climate & Sustainability

www.jin.ngo

Low Carbon Transition Pathways

In the LIVESTOCK sector

Annela Anger-Kraavi

CE

www.camecon.com

A LOW CARBON TRANS IT ION IN THE

DUTCH L IVESTOCK SECTOR

Agricultural sector in the Netherlands

- 2nd agriculture exporter in the world (in EUR)

- 4th milk producer in EU (7th herd size)

- Largest veal producer in EU

- 5th largest pig herd in EU

*Livestock densities in EU in 2013 (in LSU / ha)

Source: Eurostat

Livestock sector - ISSUES

- Nutrient accumulation (manure)

- ‘Mega-stables’, Animal-human health

- Low milk & meat prices

CH4

N2O

CO2

70%

70%

4%

NH3

PM10

NOX

87%

27%

6%

Note: emissions percentages are share of national total emissions of that particular pollutant

TRANS IT ION OPTIONS FOR THE DUTCH

L IVESTOCK SECTOR (2030)

Low Carbon Transition Pathways

Primary objective:

Low GHG

Reduce livestock

Reduce animal protein consumption

Improve conversion efficiency

Promote low-GHG feeds

Promote energy saving

Produce renewable energy

Promote manure management

IDEA REFERENCE: P INK F LOYD

Observation

NOT all pathways target multiple objectives at the same time

Case study focus on 2 pathways

• Reduction Livestock (RL)

• Integrated Man. Mngmt (IMM)

Goal

• Maximize SYNERGIES

• Minimize TRADE-OFFS

WE NEED MULTI-PURPOSE PATHWAYS! !

2030 GHG targets

- GHG (non-ETS sectors) = -35% (2005)

- CH4 (national) = -33% (2005)

IMPACT 2 PATHWAYS AT NATIONAL LEVEL

RL VS. IMM

2.500.000 1.500.000

RL – requires 37,5% reduction of cattle

IMM – requires

Cattle manure

51.8 mln. ton

≈ 10.000 farm-

scale plants

CAPEX

≈ 5,2 bln. EUR

Pig manure

11.6 mln. ton

≈ 60 industrial

scale plants

CAPEX

≈ 0,6 bln. EUR

A SSESS ING S IDE-EFFECTS OF 2 PATHWAYS

ENVIRONMENT

* Leakage?

Contribution to target IMM RL

Renewable energy

PJ + 0

GHG emission reduction

CH4 – enteric fermentation 0 +*

CH4 – manure management + +*

CO2 – avoidance of fossil fuel + 0

Ammonia emissions

Stables & storage + +

Application to soil 0 +

Nutrient excretion

Nitrates (N) 0 +

Phosphates (P) 0 +

A SSESS ING S IDE-EFFECTS OF 2 PATHWAYS

SOCIO-ECONOMIC & OTHER

* Leakage?

Possible side-effects IMM RL

Domestic availability of ‘cheap’ soil nutrients - -

Animal health – air quality + 0

Animal health – use of antibiotics + +*

Animal welfare – grazing time (cattle only) + / - + / -

Animal welfare – stable space + 0

Human health + +*

International competitiveness livestock sector - -

Impact on GDP + / - -

Employment + -

Role of modelling:

1. Assess effect of pathway at national scale

2. Quantify (yet) (un)known side-effects

3. Reducing risks & uncertainties for stakeholders

Modelling in this case study:

- Macro-econometric Energy-Environment- Economy model - E3ME

- Modelling scenarios and comparing them with a selected reference

- Scenarios are what-if stories and developed with stakeholders

- Outputs to inform policy and industry stakeholders

MODELLING L IVESTOCK PATHWAYS

Is it ok if we:

Swap GHG emission reduction for lower GDP (growth)?

Improve animal welfare but reduce local air quality?

Jeopardize food security to meet national environmental goals?

Which side-effects did we miss?

Other effects to consider for livestock sector in 1) emerging economies

and 2) LDCs?

QUESTIONS TO AUDIENCE?

Handout with more background information on this case study is

available on:

http://jin.ngo/8-events/162-transrisk-cop22

http://cdn.jin.ngo/images/jin/publications/JIQ_Special_COP22_TRANS

risk_livestock_pathways.pdf

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

‘Assessing mitigation pathway risk and uncertainty: case studies in

the Netherlands, Kenya and Chile’

18th November 2016 @ COP22, Marrakech

Matthew Halstead

(Francesco Dalla Longa and Bob van der Zwaan)

Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN)

The potential to implement

Kenya’s INDC

Tim Suljada

(Oliver Johnson, Hannah Wanjiru, Mbeo Ogeya)

Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)

Provide a sample of our scenario analysis results which complement ongoing

broader research in Kenya

Purpose of the analysis:

• Explore the necessity of large-scale RE deployment with respect to Kenya’s

GHG abatement ambitions (INDC):

Focus on power and energy demand sectors

• Compare the Kenya INDC emissions projection with a range of climate policy

scenarios up to 2030; make projections beyond to 2050.

PURPOSE

• Kenya’s BAU emissions projections from the Second National Communication

• Uncertainty in LULUCF data, thus excluded from our analysis (right hand chart)

• 30% emissions reduction compared to BAU in INDC; 20% reduction excl. LULUCF

• We focus on blue area in our analysis – energy and power sector

KENYA’ S INDC

0

30

60

90

120

150

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

[MtC

O2e

]

LULUCF Agriculture Energy & Power

Transportation Industry & Waste BAU

NDC

0

30

60

90

120

150

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

[MtC

O2e

]

BAU excl. LULUCF NDC excl. LULUCF

EMISS ION TRAJECTORIES: A LL SCENARIOS

• Scenarios from global TIAM-ECN work. Starting point for other scenarios relevant to Kenya

• 20% emissions reduction in TIAM-ECN: NDC scenario excl. LULUCF (30% reduction in Kenya INDC)

• INDC target plausible from an energy system and cost-optimality perspective

• Additional costs in 2050 of US$16 bln annually in NDC scenario (Kenya GDP (2015) is 63 bln US$)

• Energy consumption currently dominated by use of biomass and oil (imported)

• In REF scenario (no GHG mitigation policies) mostly coal and oil products

• In NDC scenario coal and nuclear constrained; large role for Geothermal and Biomass

RESULTS:

F INAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION [EJ]

2010

Why is biomass and charcoal

important in Kenya?

Graphic: Oliver Johnson

Chart: Ministry for Environment, Water and

Natural Resources

Consumption (tonnes/yr)

Sustainable supply

(tonnes/yr)

Deficit (tonnes/yr)

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

2000 2005 2010 2020An

nu

al

su

pp

ly/c

on

su

mp

tio

n (

ton

nes

/year)

Year

Projected annual biomass (wood & charcoal) energy consumption and supply

Biomass

production

Charcoal

conversion

Transportation

Wholesale

Retail

Consumer

• Wood and charcoal is estimated at 68% of

final energy consumption

• Charcoal consumption is much higher than

sustainable supply

• GHG emissions reduction opportunities in

value chain, but it is complex

What are the incentives for change for actors in the value chain?

How can actors and networks support innovation towards sustainable charcoal?

• Kenya’s NDC target is achievable with a timely

deployment of RE; deeper emission reductions possible

• Complex and challenging societal shift going beyond

energy sector e.g. sustainable charcoal

KEY MESSAGES

Charcoal production technologies: brick kiln, traditional earth kiln and improved earth kiln

respectively

• How could Kenya attract private capital to

finance INDC implementation? What support

other than financial is needed? Who should

provide this support?

• What other factors should we be considering in

our scenarios and case study?

NEXT STEPS/OPEN QUESTIONS

Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

‘Assessing mitigation pathway risk and uncertainty: case studies in

the Netherlands, Kenya and Chile’

18th November 2016 @ COP22, Marrakech

Luis Edwin Gonzales Carrasco

Economist

Clapes-UC Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile

Cities Approach

Santiago de Chile: CO2 and Air

quality

I S C O N C EN TRAT ED C H I LE ?

4 1 % O F C H I LEAN PO PULAT IO N L I V E S IN S ANT IAGO

MOTIVATION

CHILE INDC COMMITMENT

Source: INDC Chile

MOTIVATION

CHILE INDC COMMITMENT

Art 2.6 Chile’s work on short lived

climate pollutants

ADIT IONAL COMMITMENT ON B LACK

CARBON ACTION

Source: INDC Chile

STRUCTURE OF CO2 EMITTERS AROUND

CHILE 2012

Tarapacá

Antofagasta Atacama

Coquimbo

Valparaíso

SANTIAGO

O'Higgins

Maule

Biobío

La Araucanía

Los Ríos

Los Lagos

Aysén

Magallanes y de la Antártica Chilena Total: 8,813 companies

1. Natural resource and environment

• GHG emitted by sector

CONTEXTUAL FACTORS: PRIORIT IES,

CONFL ICTS AND SYNERGIES (2 )

INCREAS ING ANNUAL TEMPERATURE IN

SANTIAGO IS AT LEAST 1,7°C

Source: Gaurrud PNUD 2016

PM TRAJECTORY AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES

1989-2015

Source: Own elaboration with MMA data

HOW CAN MODEL MEMO SHOW FUTURE

PATHS OF EMISS ION AND BENEF ITS?

1)What is a better way to relate global emissions

mitigations benefits with local emission

problems?

2)For the future, how can we incorporate local

issues in the climate change policy strategy?

CHALLENGES AND QUESTIONS TO THINK

ABOUT

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contact@transrisk-project.eu

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HOW TO CONTACT US (1/2)

Netherlands

Swap GHG emission reduction for lower GDP (growth)?

Improve animal welfare but reduce local air quality?

Jeopardize food security to meet national environmental goals?

Which side-effects did we miss?

Other effects to consider for livestock sector in: emerging economies, LDCs?

QUESTIONS TO AUDIENCE

Kenya

• How could Kenya attract private capital to finance INDC implementation? What

support other than financial is needed? Who should provide this support?

• What other factors should we be considering in our scenarios and case study?

Chile

1) What is a better way to relate global emissions mitigations benefits with local

emission problems?

2) For the future, how can we incorporate local issues in the climate change policy

strategy?