assessing jeff bzdelik using the four factors

8/12/2019 Assessing Jeff Bzdelik Using the Four Factors

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WFU SportsAnalytics1

Assessing Jeff Bzdeliks Time at Wake ForestAdam Yudelman

Wake Forest University [email protected]

Abstract:

Big time sports in a big time conference leads to big time expectations. For Wake Forest mens

basketball, decades of sustained success have been replaced by difficult seasons and fan unrest.

The target of the frustration surrounding these struggles has been Coach Jeff Bzdelik, who in

four years has yet to lead the team to an NCAA tournament berth. In this paper, I examine the

environment in which Bzdelik took over the program and the progress the team has made under

his watch. This is meant to be an unbiased look into a hotly debated topic.

Introduction:

Setting the Stage

In assessing Jeff Bzdeliks time at Wake Forest, its important to briefly look back at the recent

history of Wake Forest basketball. Prior to the arrival of Coach Dave Odom in 1989, Wake

Forest had occasional success with the basketball program, having competed in the NCAA

tournament eight times in the previous 50 years. Odom himself matched that total in his 12 yearsat Wake Forest. Led by future NBA first rounders Rodney Rogers (90 93), Randolph

Childress (91-95), and Tim Duncan (93-97), Odom led the Deacs to winning seasons in all but

his first year.

Having set a culture of success, Dave Odom left Wake Forest for the University of South

Carolina after the 2000-2001 season. Athletic Director Ron Wellman tapped Skip Prosser,

formerly of Loyala University Maryland and Xavier University, to succeed the most successful

era in Wake basketball history. Prosser not only continued on with the success, but brought the

Demon Deacons to another level. In his first four seasons, Wake won 94 games against just 35

losses, including winning at least one NCAA tournament game each year. After the loss of NBA-bound Chris Paul in 2005, the Deacs hovered around .500 for two years before the sudden death

of Coach Prosser at the age of 56.

Faced with having to choose a new coach despite the tragic loss, Wellman decided to stay house,

deciding upon Dino Gaudio, an assistant coach on Prossers staff. Gaudio inherited a talented

roster and incoming recruiting class, which included future NBAers Jeff Teague and James
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Johnson, and led the Deacs to two NCAA tournaments in three years. Coming off a second round

loss in the tournament, Gaudio was poised for another strong season with a heralded five man

recruiting class; however, Wellman decided to fire Gaudio despite a 61-31 record. Wellman, at

the announcing press conference, stated,

"This was not a decision based upon a one-year performance. We can put up with adisappointment. We have disappointments all the time. But there is a pattern here that

needed to be addressed, a 3-year pattern that needed to be addressed.

After a week, Wellman announced Jeff Bzdelik as head coach. Bzdelik had previously coached

in the NBA with the Denver Nuggets and in college at The Air Force Academy and Colorado,

yet his resume included no NCAA tournament wins. Wellman commented at the introductory

press conference that,

"I am very pleased that Jeff Bzdelik has accepted our offer to become our head coach. He

is a perfect fit for Wake Forest. Jeff holds the same values and the same standards that areso dear to this university. He has a great deal of experience in both collegiate and

professional basketball. He will produce a program and develop players that we will be

thrilled to have as Demon Deacons."

The Wake Forest values and standards that Wellman cited would prove to be important in the

beginning of the Bzdelik Era.


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Player Movement

A sign of a healthy college basketball program is the ability to recruit and retain high quality

players. For Bzdelik, it seems that he inherited an unhealthy program that was on the verge of

major upheaval. This subsequent player movement is again necessary to provide context to

Bzdeliks performance at Wake. Looking at a four year recruiting span consisting mostly ofindividuals recruited by Gaudio, the amount of players leaving the program is astounding:

Prior to the beginning of Bzdeliks first season, the new coach suspended former 5 star recruitTony Woods after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor stemming for an assault charge. Woods

never played for Wake again, and he eventually transferred to Oregon. After an 8-24 first season,

small forward Ari Stewart transferred while two members of Dino Gaudios highly rated

recruiting class of 2010, Melvin Tabb and JT Terrell, left the school after criminal charges.

During Bzdeliks second season, another Deac found himself in trouble with the school as center

Ty Walker was ultimately dismissed from the team after having been suspended for the fall


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semester due to departmental policy violations. Continuing the trend, the two of the three

remaining members of the 2010 recruiting class, Carson Desrosiers and Tony Chenault, decided

to transfer after the conclusion of the 2011-12 season. In addition, Bzdelik saw the first of his

own recruits transfer as Anthony Fields moved to Bradley. Two additional transfers and the

departure of Al-Faroq Aminu left a four year stretch of Wake recruiting decimated, with only CJ

Harris, Travis McKie and the oft-injured Daniel Green remaining in Winston-Salem.

Given that it takes a few years before a coach is able to bring in his own recruiting class,

Bzdeliks recruiting has seemed to bring back stability. His2012 and 2013 recruiting classes

have provided the Demon Deacons with nine scholarship playersall of whom remain at the

school.

All of the above is important to consider when evaluating Jeff Bzdeliks tenure at Wake Forest.

Coming into his first season, Wake had gone to the NCAA tournament 14 of the previous 20

seasons and produced 13 NBA players, including two future Hall-of-Famers in Tim Duncan and

Chris Paul. Once hired, Bzdelik, either by his choice or not, cleansed the program of Gaudioinfluence, and by the 2012-13 season, the majority of minutes were played by young players he

recruited.


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Analysis:

Breaking Down Win-Loss

The most important statistic in any team sports is Win-Loss. For Jeff Bzdelik, he has managed to

increase Wakes win totals over the past four years:

2010-11: 8-24

2011-12: 13-18

2012-13: 13-18

2013-14: 17-16

Breaking the numbers down a bit show some dramatic splits:

In ACC conference play, Bzdelik has gone 18-55, including 2-32 on the road and 1-3 in the ACC

Tournament. Out of conference; however, the Deacs have gone 33-21. The Deacs were able to

beat up on this weaker competition, for Wakes out of conference Strength of Schedule has been

consistently ranked between 228th

and 260th

out of the 350ish Division 1 schools. Given this

level of opponent, Wake should have the advantage in the large majority of these games.

Looking at the home-away splits, Bzdelik has struggled mightily on the road, winning just 5 of

47 games. Two of the non-conference wins were against High Point and UNC-G while the other

was against a Nebraska team that finished 12-18. Bzdelik won his two conference road games

against two struggling teams in Boston College (2011-12) and Virginia Tech (2013-14), both of

which ended their seasons at 9-22.


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Digging Deeper

While wins and losses are the ultimate measure of success, there is much about the on-court

performance that goes untold. One way of quantifying competitiveness is by looking at the

offensive and defensive ratings. The larger the difference between OFF RTG and DEF RTG, the

better the team has performed on the court when it comes to point differential.

To add further context to these numbers, below are the average year of contributing players

(greater than 50 minutes played in the season) for Wake in each given year:

Average Year of Rotation Player

Season Year*

2010-11 1.9

2011-12 2.5

2012-13 1.6

2013-14 2.4

` *(1-freshman, 2-sophomore, etc.)

Mixing these numbers with what we know about players leaving under Bzdeliks reign, it would

seem that Wakes teams have gotten more competitive each year. This has coincided with him

playing the players that he himself recruited, particularly with his seven man recruiting class of

2012.


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The Four Factors

While these ratings are useful, they attempt quantify offense and defense in such a broad manner,

when in reality both offense and defense come down to a variety of variables. Next, lets look at

what basketball analyst Dean Oliver calls the four factors. Oliver claims that effective FG%,

turnover %, offensive rebounding, and free throw rate are key to claiming victory in a basketball

game. All four are necessary for an efficient offense, and if a team is able to control these factors

and both the offensive and defensive ends, the team should have a significant competitive

advantage. Looking at Bzdeliks progression in these factors should provide insight into how

Wake has improved over the four years.

1) eFG%

Looking first at effective FG%, which Oliver claims to be the most important, the Deacs have

improved both offensively and defensively. This stat weighs the value of a made shot based on

the point value, so a made three point shot is worth 1.5 times more than a two point shot. The

following graph shows both the Deacs and the opponents eFG% over the last four years when

compare to the NCAA average of 48.99%:

Bzdelik slowly improved the Deacs offensive and defensive shot efficiency over his first threeyears, and then significantly over this past year. This is interesting as the new recruits have not

been particularly great shooters. The following graph, describing where Wakes offensive points

have come from, provides more insight:


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Wakes strategy seems to be mostly the same over the first three years, but then in 2013-14,

Wake stopped taking threes, which led to this increase in eFG%. This is a testament to the Deacs

coaching staff for recognizing the teams three point struggles, yet given that the twotop

shooters, Travis McKie and Coron Williams, were not recruited in high school by Bzdelik, it is

also an indictment on the shooting abilities of Bzdeliks incoming talent.

Overall, it would seem that the Deacs are trending in the right direction, yet how this offensive

efficiency holds up over the next year without McKie or Williams is to be seen. Defensively, it is

hard to measure the causes for the dip in opponent eFG%, so we can chalk it up to good coaching,

more effort, better athletes, etcany of which would be attributed to Bz.

0.0000%

10.0000%

20.0000%

30.0000%

40.0000%

50.0000%

60.0000%

%2PT POINTS %3PT POINTS %FT POINTS

2013-2014

2012-2013

2011-2012

2010-2011


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B) Turnover %

Turnover percentage, the second most important of these factors, is a stat designed to calculate

the percentage of offensive possessions that end in a turnover. The following graph again shows

the Deacs and their opponents performance in this measure compared to the NCAA average:

Note: Negative is less turnovers than average, while positive is more turnovers than average

Bzdeliks tenure can really be split in half, the first two years with Gaudios players, and the

second two years with his own. This graph shows that as each group aged, they improved in

protecting the ball. This would seem to indicate that this current young core should continue to

improve over the next two years; however, despite the Deacs making a significant improvement

in 13-14, their opponent also improved to the point where the Deacs still lost the turnover battle.

If the Deacs can keep improving even slightly and force their opponents into a league-average

TOV%, Wake Forest would be able to control the turnover numbers, which helps lead to easy

buckets and control of the pace of the game.


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C) Offensive Rebounding

This is where the Deacs really struggle. The following is a graph showing the defensive

rebounding percentages over the past four years:

Simply, opponents are consistently out-rebounding the Deacs. Struggling with defensive

rebounding leads to offensive boards for the opposing team, which results in additional

possessions, often of which end quickly in easy put backs. There is again a glimmer of hope as

the linear regressions show that progress has been made over the years, yet the Deacs are still

painfully outperformed by the opposing teams. This tends to happen when the Deacs consistently

play undersized in the front court. Unfortunately, Wake lost their biggest glimmer of hope for

rebounding when Issac Haas, a 7ft 2in center, de-committed from Wake this past fall.

In sum, this struggle could be attributed to players being forced out of position, yet when

watching games, far too many times players failed to box out. I believe this struggle is a related

to player size, for once a team gets offensive rebounds, it can be deflating for a teams effort.


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D) Free Throw Rate

Despite being the least important of the four factors, this seems to be the one that Bzdeliks harps

on the most. This past season, the Deacs were a top 20 team in free throw rate, a measure of how

many free throws a team takes compared to field goal attempts. The idea is that if a team can

consistently get to the free throw line, the team should score efficiently because free throws areeasier (hence more efficient) than any other shot. Unfortunately for the Deacs, as their free throw

rate has increased, their FT% has fallen just as dramatically:

Any increase in free throw rate has been almost negated by the shooting struggles of the team, as

seen in the point distribution shot shown with eFG%. While even shooting at such a low rate is

still more efficient than a generic two point shot or a three point shot, this begs the question ofwho Bzdelik is recruiting. Good teams can struggle at the line, but if a coach is emphasizing free

throws so much, why not recruit great free throw shooters? Again, with the loss of McKie and

Williams, the team may even fall further in their FT%. The idea is right, but the execution is

lacking.


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Conclusion:

For a few years, alums and fans alike, having come off 20 years of consistent success, have been

calling for Wellman to make a change. The numbers show progression, but unfortunately

Bzdelik has not led a program longer than four years, so there is no precedent of success for the

fans to look at. In comparison, Dave Clawson, the new head football coach, will likely be given a

few years to build the program, for he has shown systematic improvement over time at every

stop. However, the above analysis shows hope for the future and path of attack for the Demon

Deacons.

The Wake Forest players will continue to progress in all aspects of their games. Adala Moto is a

great example of this, having shown great improvement in free throw shooting throughout the

year. If the Deacs can continue to improve their free throw shooting as a team, they will have a

significant advantage given their already sky-high free throw rate. The other three factors, at

least for the current core, are really just related to player development. In the future, the team can

focus recruitment on size and shooting, for the current guards, along with incoming Shelton

Mitchell, should provide the team with ample ball handling. Who will be doing this recruiting,

however, remains the big question.

References:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/wake-forest/

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=5064441

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=5083201

http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/basketball/recruiting/commitments/2009/wakeforest-9

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/sos/2013-14

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html

www.teamrankings.com

http://www.bloggersodear.com/2012/3/26/2903959/amidst-transfers-jeff-bzdelik-and-wake-

forest-is-struggling-to
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/wake-forest/http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/wake-forest/http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=5064441http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=5064441http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=5083201http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=5083201http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/basketball/recruiting/commitments/2009/wakeforest-9http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/basketball/recruiting/commitments/2009/wakeforest-9http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/sos/2013-14http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/sos/2013-14http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.htmlhttp://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.htmlhttp://www.teamrankings.com/http://www.bloggersodear.com/2012/3/26/2903959/amidst-transfers-jeff-bzdelik-and-wake-forest-is-struggling-tohttp://www.bloggersodear.com/2012/3/26/2903959/amidst-transfers-jeff-bzdelik-and-wake-forest-is-struggling-tohttp://www.bloggersodear.com/2012/3/26/2903959/amidst-transfers-jeff-bzdelik-and-wake-forest-is-struggling-tohttp://www.bloggersodear.com/2012/3/26/2903959/amidst-transfers-jeff-bzdelik-and-wake-forest-is-struggling-tohttp://www.bloggersodear.com/2012/3/26/2903959/amidst-transfers-jeff-bzdelik-and-wake-forest-is-struggling-tohttp://www.teamrankings.com/http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.htmlhttp://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/sos/2013-14http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/basketball/recruiting/commitments/2009/wakeforest-9http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=5083201http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=5064441http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/wake-forest/

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