Assessing INDCs and their implications: Resources, tools, and analysis Louise Jeffery, on behalf of the PRIMAP team: 1 December 2015 Johannes Gtschow, Ryan Alexander, Robert Gieseke, Claire Fyson, Yann Robiou du Pont, David Stevens, and Ronja Gebel INDCs - State of Play 156 INDCs submitted to the UNFCCC by 1 Dec 95% global emissions in 2010 (excl. LULUCF; 2% other countries, 3% bunkers) 97% global population Of these INDCs: 28 absolute reductions relative to a reference year 81 reduction below a BAU (63 provide a BAU in the INDC) 21 Intensity targets 34 measures and policies based Extensive coverage, but is the ambition sufficient? 2 INDC resources and tools 1) Climate Action Tracker 2) PRIMAP-live Scenario Explorer 3) INDC Factsheets 3 Climate Action Tracker 33 countries individually assessed, covering 80% of global emissions in 2010 Assessments include a quantification and rating of INDC targets as compared with a range of effort-sharing schemes CAT also assesses the sufficiency of current policies in meeting pledges and INDC targets Estimate the warming in 2100 consistent with current pledges, INDCs, and policies 4 climateactiontracker.org Bhutan CAT - Individual country ratings not likely below 2C 6 As of 1 October, CAT estimated that total emissions in 2030 would be GtCO 2 e The gap between INDC levels and 1.5C or 2C consistent pathways increases between 2025 and 2030 Aggregate emissions in 2030 fall short of what is needed to be on a robust track to 1.5 or 2C in Current policies are not yet sufficient to meet the INDC emissions at the global level CAT aggregate INDC analysis CAT - global temperature analysis Median warming estimate for unconditional INDCs is 2.7C Likely (>66%) below 3C and 90% probability of exceeding 2C 8 Exploring IAM Scenarios with PRIMAP-live 9 https://www.pik-potsdam.de/primap-live/ Provides an accessible interface to scenarios from integrated assessment models The user can explore for themselves questions such as: 1) What are the emissions pathways consistent with limiting warming to below 2C, or returning to 1.5C by the end of the century? 10 What are the characteristics of emissions pathways with