assessing climate change vulnerability at the port of ......in 2009, mobile was the 12 th largest...
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Gulf Coast Phase 2
Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability at the Port of Mobile, AL
March 5, 2013
Prepared for:
Scoping Workshop on Sea Ports and Climate Change
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Context of Gulf Coast Phase 2 Project and Marine Facilities in Mobile, AL
Context
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U.S. DOT - Gulf Coast ProjectCONTEXT
U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) is conducting a comprehensive multiphase study of climate change impacts in the Central Gulf Coast region
Study is funded by USDOT Center for Climate Change and is managed by the Federal Highway Administration
Characteristics of U.S. Gulf Coast:• Dense population and complex infrastructure• Critical role in imports and exports of oil, gas, and grain• May be particularly susceptible to climate change over the 21st
century
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Gulf Coast Project: Phase I and IICONTEXT
Phase I (2003-2008)• Examined the impacts of climate change on
transportation infrastructure at a regional scale
Phase II (underway)• Focused on a single Metropolitan Planning
Organization (MPO) around Mobile, AL• Goals:
– Evaluate which transportation infrastructure components are most critical to economic and societal function
– Assess the vulnerability of these components to weather events and long-term changes in climate
– Develop tools and to determine which systems need to be protected, and how best to protect them
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Temperature rise
Sea-level rise
Increase in heavy downpours
Rapidly retreating glaciers
Thawing permafrost
Longer growingseason
Longer ice-free seasonin the ocean and on lakesand rivers
Earlier snowmelt
Changes in river flows
Observed U.S. Sea-Level Changes
Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow
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Flooding in Houston
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Results – Gulf Coast StudyHighways Vulnerable to Relative Sea Level Rise
Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis of U.S. DOT Data.
Baseline (Present Day) 4 Feet of Sea Level Rise
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Results – Gulf Coast Study Freight Rail Lines Vulnerable to Storm Surge of 18 feet
Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis of climate projections and Federal Railroad Administration data.
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A Risk Assessment Approach to Transportation Decisions
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Risk Assessment
AdaptationResponse
• Exposure
• Vulnerability
• Resilience
• Protect
• Accommodate
• Retreat
GreaterResilience
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Mobile, AL Marine FacilitiesCONTEXT
In 2009, Mobile was the 12th largest port in the United States (by tons of traffic)
Mobile County marine facilities handled 67.5 million short tons of cargo in 2008
Various types of cargo – containers, break bulk, neo bulk, liquid bulk, and seafood
Sixty-one marine facilities are located within Mobile County; 23 defined as critical
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Screening Approach and Sensitivity Matrix
Screening for Potentially Vulnerable Assets
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Components of VulnerabilityVULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
Vulnerability
Exposure Sensitivity
IPCC Definition
Nature and degree of exposure to climate variability and change
Key Question
To what extent is the asset exposed to climate
changes?
IPCC Definition
Degree to which a system is affected by exposure
Key Question
How sensitive is each asset to climate changes? If all
assets were equally exposed, which assets would experience the greatest damage?
IPCC Definition
Ability of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and
change
Key Question
How well does the transportation system
adjust, repair, and flexibly respond to damage?
Adaptive Capacity
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GC2 Pilot Asset Screening ApproachVULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
All Transportation Assets
All Critical Assets
All Critical and Sensitive Assets
All Assets that are Critical, Sensitive, and Exposed
Assess Criticality
Assess Sensitivity
Assess Exposure
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Screening for SensitivityVULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY: SENSITIVITY
Mapped relationships between asset types and climate variables
Identified key thresholds where damage begins to occur
• Wind design speeds for Mobile marine facilities range from 130-140 mph
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Climate Data Analysis
Evaluating Mobile’s Current and Future Climate
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Exposure to Climate Variability and ChangeEVALUATING MOBILE’S CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE
Five primary climate variables: temperature, precipitation, streamflow, sea level rise, and storm surge
Downscaled climate projection data, sea level rise and storm surge modeling, to develop plausible climate futures
Projected temperature and precipitation changes in Mobile:• Temperature is projected to increase over time. The number of very hot
days are projected to increase dramatically by mid-century. • Mobile is already one of the rainiest cities in the United States,
– annual average rainfall of 65 in (165.9 centimeters); – total annual precipitation is not projected to change significantly in the near-
term, regardless of emission scenario.
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Projected Sea Level Rise in Mobile, ALEVALUATING MOBILE’S CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE
Three plausible scenarios:• 0.3 meters (1.0 foot) by 2050• 0.75 meters (2.5 feet) by 2100• 2.0 meters (6.6 feet) by 2100
Port facilities are significantly exposed to sea level rise, with 46% of the critical ports exposed under the lowest scenario, and 92% exposed under the highest scenario
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75cm and 200cm SLR ScenariosEVALUATING MOBILE’S CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE
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Scenario-based Analysis of Storm SurgeEVALUATING MOBILE’S CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE
Main questions:• What are the implications of a moderate hurricane striking the region
under a scenario of increased sea level? • What are the implications of a strike by a larger hurricane than the
region has experienced in recent history?
Methodology:• Storm surge inundation from 11 storm scenarios was modeled using
ADCIRC• Scenarios used Hurricane Georges and Katrina as base storms and
then adjusted certain characteristics of the storm to simulate what could happen under alternate conditions
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Example Storm Surge ScenariosEVALUATING MOBILE’S CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE
Hurricane Katrina Natural Path Scenario Hurricane Katrina Shifted Path Scenario with Reduced Central Pressure and 0.75 meter Sea level Rise
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Indicators and Preliminary Results
Vulnerability Assessment of Mobile’s Marine Facilities
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Vulnerability AssessmentVULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE’S MARINE FACILITIES
Objective: • Identify the assets most likely to be vulnerable to sea level rise,
storm surge, extreme heat, precipitation, and wind
Method:• Assets scored by “indicators” of vulnerability to each climate impact• Assets receive multiple vulnerability scores – for each variable, time
period, and climate narrative
Outcomes:• A prioritized list of potentially vulnerable assets to facilitate selection of
assets for the engineering assessment• Better understanding of system-level vulnerabilities for specific modes,
geographies, and climate variables• Better understanding of linkages between modes
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Using Indicators to Score VulnerabilityVULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE’S MARINE FACILITIES
Exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity are abstract concepts
• Formulas cannot tell us how individual assets are specifically damaged by certain weather conditions
We chose indicators to represent these concepts
• Indicators help evaluate characteristics that could indicate an asset may or may not be vulnerable
Averages (potentially weighted) of indicators drive scoring
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
Exposure indicators
Sensitivity indicators
Adaptive capacity indicators
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Example Vulnerability Indicators for PortsVULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE’S MARINE FACILITIES
Exposure• Temperature and precipitation - projected change in extreme events
relative to the baseline (hot days, wet days)• Storm surge - inundation depth• Sea level rise – exposed or not exposed (Y/N)
Sensitivity• Sensitivity of cargo to temperature and precipitation• Reliance on electricity• Potential for ponding during heavy rain• Location within 100-year floodzone
Adaptive Capacity• Redundancy within and across facilities• Disruption duration
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Preliminary Results: Temperature and Precipitation
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE’S MARINE FACILITIES
In the less extreme narratives, port vulnerability to temperature and precipitation is low.
Damages: Low Damages: Moderate
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Vulnerability of Ports to Temperature: End-of-Century, Hotter Scenario
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE’S MARINE FACILITIES
25Vulnerability Scale
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Vulnerability of Ports to Precipitation: EOC, Wetter Scenario
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE’S MARINE FACILITIES
26Vulnerability Scale
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Preliminary Results: Storm Surge, Wind, and Sea Level Rise
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE’S MARINE FACILITIES
Under the most extreme sea level rise narrative (200cm), nearly all port facilities are vulnerable
Ports are moderately to highly vulnerable to storm surge, even under the least extreme narrative
Identified specific facilities that are most vulnerable to storm surge and sea level rise
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Preliminary Results: Storm Surge, Wind, and Sea Level Rise
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE’S MARINE FACILITIES
Damages: High Damages: Low Damages: High
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Vulnerability of Ports to Storm Surge: Katrina, Shifted, Pressure Reduced, 75cm SLR
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE’S MARINE FACILITIES
Vulnerability Scale
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Vulnerability of Ports to Sea Level Rise: 200cm
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE’S MARINE FACILITIES
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Vulnerability Scale
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Questions?
