Assessing Army Deploymentsto OEF/OIF

Tim BondsDave Baiocchi

September 2009

Deployments to OEF/OIF-2 Jul-09

Objective: Determine How Close Army Is To Providing Maximum Flow of Soldiers To OIF/OEF

• Approach: High-level assessment using data from OSD sources– Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) analyses for USD (P&R)

• Provides “snapshots” of troop deployments to OIF/OEF

• Assess Army Soldier deployments to date– Extend analyses to assess cumulative deployments and troop flows– How Army manages troop needs of OIF/OEF and other assigned

missions and tasks• Where data available, look to other Services as a benchmark

– We will focus on “Active Duty” Soldiers

• Assess degree to which Army could provide more, considering: – Flow of Soldiers from recruits to veterans (to ending time in service)– Balance between OIF/OEF and other important missions and activities

Deployments to OEF/OIF-3 Jul-09

DMDC Presentation Provides “Snapshot” Of Current Force

Army

11.1%

36.1%

21.0% 31.7%

Navy

8.0%

44.9%17.0%

30.2%

(Based on end strength as of December 31, 2008)

Marine Corps

7.9%

45.8%18.6%

27.8%

Air Force

47.6%14.0%

26.2%

12.2%

* Based on all active duty regular Army, Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps members in the DMDC Active Duty End Strength Files and deployments in the CTS Deployment File

What other insights can these data reveal about Army deployments?

Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)

Deployments to OEF/OIF-4 Jul-09

Cumulative Total Army Deployment: Over 1 Million Troop-Years To OIF/OEF

Note: Does Not Reflect Services’ Support to Other

Missions and Activities

Source: DMDC Contingency Tracking System Deployment File (Dec 2008)

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Deployments to OEF/OIF-5 Jul-09

Army Generating Largest Share Of DoD Active Duty OIF-OEF Troop Deployments …

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Source: DMDC Contingency Tracking System Deployment File (Dec 2008)

19%15% 15%

52% of DoD Active Duty

Deployments

*Percentages have been rounded up

Note: Does Not Reflect Services’ Support to Other

Missions and Activities

Deployments to OEF/OIF-6 Jul-09

19%15% 15%

… In Total And As A Percentage Of FY2008 DoD Active Duty Assigned Strength

24%

14%

23%

39% of DoD Active Duty

Strength

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52% of DoD Active Duty

Deployments

Note: Does Not Reflect Services’ Support to Other

Missions and Activities

Source: DMDC Contingency Tracking System Deployment File (Dec 2008)

*Percentages have been rounded up

Deployments to OEF/OIF-7 Jul-09

New Recruits In Training

Ending Time Of Service

Soldiers That Have Deployed

to OIF/OEF

Forces Assigned toOther Missions

Growth Of Deployed Pool Depends Upon Flow Of Soldiers Into, Through, And Out Of Army

Source: DMDC(2008)

Theater ForcesMedical Corps

Air DefenseNational Intel

Deployments to OEF/OIF-8 Jul-09

New Recruits117,00021% of

Active Duty

Ending Time Of Service

Soldiers That Have Deployed

to OIF/OEF

Forces Assigned toOther Missions

Snapshot Of Army Troop Flows: CY2008

Source: DMDC(2008) and US Army HRC

In Training

376,00068% of

Active Duty

64,00011% of

Active Duty

Deployments to OEF/OIF-9 Jul-09

Deployed Soldiers Have Highest Cumulative Deployment Times …

(As Of June 2008)

25 - 37+ Months61,000 Soldiers

13 - 24 Months167,000 Soldiers

1 - 12 Months135,000 Soldiers

DMDC Data: June 2008 DMDC Data: June 2008

Deployments to OEF/OIF-10 Jul-09

… And Soldier Numbers And Cumulative Deployed Time Continues To Grow

DMDC Data: December 2008DMDC Data: December 2008

25 - 41+ Months79,000 Soldiers

13 - 24 Months174,000 Soldiers

1 - 12 Months122,000 Soldiers

(As Of December 2008)

Deployments to OEF/OIF-11 Jul-09

Bulk Of Deployment Burden Falls On Mid-Grade Soldiers -- And Junior Soldiers Starting Out

• Junior Soldiers are on their way up the curve

• Army Warrants, E-5 to E-9, and O-3 and O-4 highest cumulative time

– across all services and pay grades

• May take time to deploy pool of senior NCOs and Officers

Army

Marine Corps

Navy

Air Force

Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)

Deployments to OEF/OIF-12 Jul-09

Army Is Also Relatively Efficient In Providing Forces(FY08 OSD Estimate)

Source: Defense Manpower Requirements Report, FY2009, ODUSD(PI)(RQ)

Tro

op

s (

K)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Army Navy Marine Corps Air Force

ForcesInfrastructure

71%

29%

55%

45%

68%

32%

56%

44%

Deployments to OEF/OIF-13 Jul-09

Who Are Soldiers That Have “Not Yet” Deployed?

Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)

• Starting Point: DMDC numbers for “Active Duty” Army Deployments to OEF/OIF

• We will focus on “Not yet” category

– Represents roughly 1/3 of Active Duty Force

Not yet32.7%

(182,000)

Once33.5%

(187,000)

Twice20.6%

(115,000)

Three Or More13.3%

(74,000)

Deployments to OEF/OIF-14 Jul-09

New Soldiers Make Up Majority of “Not Yet” Deployed

Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)

• 117,000 Soldiers average 2 or less years in Army

– 87K Average 1 year

– 30K Average 2 years

– Nearly all appear to be in IET, or preparing with unit for first deployment

– Some actually deployed to Korea, Europe, etc.

– Includes USMA cadets

• 64,000 Soldiers average 3 or more years

– 9000 of them deployed to Korea, Europe, etc

– Less than 10% of force in CONUS and trained, but “not yet” deployed (55,000 Soldiers)

1 yrs47.9%

(87,000)

2 yrs16.8%

(30,400)

3 yrs11.2%

(20,300)

8+ yrs12.6%

(22,900)4 - 7 yrs11.6%

(21,000)

Deployments to OEF/OIF-15 Jul-09

Remaining Soldiers Supporting Other Missions Or Preparing To Deploy

TRADOC 13,000

MTOE Units 25,000

TDA Units 17,000

New To Army(1 - 2 yrs)

117,000

Have Deployed 376,000

55,000

Soldiers

Military Occupational

Specialty

CONUS Not Yet

Deployed

Medical/ Health

10,519

Intelligence/Networks

5815

Air Defense 1921

Recruiting 2289

Exemplar MOSs

= 20,544 Soldiers= 20,544 Soldiers

Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)

Korea, Overseas9,000

Deployments to OEF/OIF-16 Jul-09

May Take Time To Rotate Some Soldier Specialties Into Deploying Units

Source: DMDC (Dec 2008)

TRADOC 13,000

MTOE Units 25,000

TDA Units 17,000

New To Army(1 - 2 yrs)

117,000

Have Deployed 376,000

55,000

Soldiers

Military Occupational

Specialty

CONUS Not Yet

Deployed

Deployed Peers

Medical/ Health

10,519 23904

Intelligence/Networks

5815 36155

Air Defense 1921 4134

Recruiting 2289 N/A

Exemplar MOSs

20,544 Soldiers

Deployments to OEF/OIF-17 Jul-09

Summary• Our assessment of CY 2008 Army concludes that:

– 68% have deployed to OIF/OEF – have large cumulative deployed time– 21% are new to Army – still training, integrating, or preparing to deploy– 1.5% are deployed to other overseas locations– [At least] 3.5% are in jobs key to current global military operations

• Total: 94% [or more] appear to be where needed to support priority national missions and activities

• Therefore: Army is close to providing maximum Soldier flow– More detailed analysis required to assess remaining 6%

• Includes a diverse mix of USMA students, special, “rebalanced”, injured, other, etc

• At any given time, will always be some Soldiers who have not deployed YET

– Large number of Soldiers entering Army each year need time to train– Experienced Soldiers needed to generate deploying forces– Some MOSs critical for other Army-assigned missions

Deployments to OEF/OIF-18 Jul-09

Soldiers Committed To OIF/OEF

Source: DMDC

Soldiers

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

SEP2001

MAR2002

SEP2002

MAR2003

SEP2003

MAR2004

SEP2004

MAR2005

SEP2005

MAR2006

SEP2006

MAR2007

SEP2007

MAR2008

SEP2008

MAR2009

Army National GuardArmy ReserveArmy Active Duty

Deployments to OEF/OIF-19 Jul-09Source: DMDC

Soldiers