asia/pacific pc market analysis teleconference, 3q03 andy woo analyst
TRANSCRIPT
Asia/Pacific PC Market Analysis Teleconference, 3Q03
Andy Woo
Analyst
Total Shipments:7.58 Million Units
Year-Over-Year Growth:10.6%
Quarter-Over-Quarter Growth:9.3%
Units Deskbased PCs: 6.32 Million Mobile PCs: 1.26 Million
Year-Over-Year Growth (%) Deskbased PCs: 6.0 Mobile PCs: 41.3
3Q03 Market Headlines:Volume and Growth
0
300
600
900
3Q00 3Q01 3Q02 3Q03
Mobile PCs
Deskbased PCs
Third-Quarter Comparisons
-30%
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
150%
3Q00 3Q01 3Q02 3Q03
Deskbased PCs
Mobile PCs
By Asia/Pacific:– Legend: 9.7%– Hewlett-Packard: 8.7%– Dell: 5.8%
By Platform:– Deskbased: Legend 10.4%– Mobile: IBM 16.5%
By Segment:– Professional: Hewlett Packard 10.6%– Home: Legend 8.9%
3Q03 Market Headlines: The Leaders
Market share is based on PC shipments (deskbased and mobile PCs only)Arrows represent increase or decline in year-over-year market share percentage points.
0.2%
1.2%
1.4%
1.9%
1.1%
1.3%
0.9%
3Q03 Total Market: Top 10 Vendors
3Q03 (7.58 Million Units) 3Q02 (6.85 Million Units)
Growth Rate Highlights:HP 37.1% Dell 52.8% IBM 23.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Legend HP Dell IBM Acer SamsungElectronics
FounderElectronics
Tongfang Toshiba TriGemComputer
3Q02
2Q03
3Q03
Market Share
3Q03vs. 3Q02
Worldwide PC Sequential
Growth:
13.7%
3Q03vs. 3Q02
Hong Kong 9.4%
Indonesia 22.0%
Singapore 5.6%
New Zealand 29.4%
Philippines 3.2%
Vietnam 13.3%
Rest of Asia/Pacific 5.9%
China 8.2%
South Korea -10.8%
India 25.6%
Australia 18.0%
Taiwan 8.3%
Thailand 74.5%
Malaysia 8.4%
Worldwide PC Year-Over-Year
Growth:
15.1%
3Q03 Geographic Market Growth Rates
Mobile PCs Continue To Drive Growth
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2Q00
4Q00
2Q01
4Q01
2Q02
4Q02
2Q03
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2Q00
4Q00
2Q01
4Q01
2Q02
4Q02
2Q03
Mobile PCs
Deskbased PCs
Year-Over-Year Growth Shipments
Mobile PCs 43.1%
Deskbased PCs
Mobile PCs
Different Patterns in Countries/Markets — Platforms
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Deskbased PCs Mobile PCs
Yearly Shipment Growth Rates by Form FactorA
ust
rali
a
Ch
ina
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
Ind
ia
Ind
on
esia
Mal
aysi
a
New
Zea
lan
d
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Sin
gap
ore
So
uth
Ko
rea
Tai
wan
Th
aila
nd
Vie
tnam
Res
t o
fA
sia
/Pac
ific
3Q03 Mobile Market: Top 10 Vendors
Market Growth Rate: 43.1% 3Q03 (1.26 Million Units) 3Q02 (0.89 Million Units)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
3Q02
2Q03
3Q03
Market Share
IBM Hewlett-Packard
Toshiba Dell Acer Samsung Electronics
Legend ASUS Fujitsu Founder Electronics
Home and SMB Mobile PCs –Price Dynamics
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
1Q00
3Q001Q
013Q
011Q
023Q
021Q
033Q
03
Av
era
ge
Se
llin
g P
ric
e (
$)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Sh
ipm
en
t G
row
th
Average Selling Price Unit Growth
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
Av
era
ge
Se
llin
g P
ric
e (
$)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Sh
ipm
en
t G
row
th
Average Selling Price Unit Growth
Home Market Small and Midsize Business Market
Average Selling Price Change3Q02-3Q03: -6%Unit Growth3Q02: 43.3%3Q03 55.0%
Average Selling Price Change3Q02–3Q03: -7%Unit Growth3Q02: 18.0%3Q03 35.0%
Mobile PC Processors – Confusing
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1Q03 2Q03 3Q03
Mainstream Notebooks
Desktop Replacement NotebooksDesktop Replacement Notebooks
Ultraportable Notebooks
32%1% 6% 3% 57% 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Athlon Celeron Pentium III Pentium 4 Pentium M Others
Mobile CPU Market Share, 3Q03
?Coming
Soon
Centrino — Wireless Mobility
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Mobile PCs With Centrino Other Mobile PCs
Mobile PCs With Centrino, 3Q03
Asia/Pacific
Australia
China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
New Zealand
Philippines
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
Rest of Asia/Pacific
Patterns in Countries/Markets — Sectors
Yearly Shipment Growth Rates by Major MarketA
ust
rali
a
Ch
ina
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
Ind
ia
Ind
on
esia
Mal
aysi
a
New
Zea
lan
d
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Sin
gap
ore
So
uth
Ko
rea
Tai
wan
Th
aila
nd
Vie
tnam
Res
t o
f A
sia
/Pac
ific
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Private
Professional
3Q03 Professional Market: Top 10 Vendors
3Q03: 4.13 Million Units 3Q02: 3.96 Million Units
Market Growth Rate: 4.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
HP
Le
ge
nd
De
ll
IBM
Ac
er
To
ng
fan
g
Fo
un
de
rE
lec
tro
nic
s
Sa
ms
un
gE
lec
tro
nic
s
To
sh
iba
HC
L In
so
l
3Q02
2Q03
3Q03
Market Share
3Q03 Home Market: Top 10 Vendors
3Q03: 3.45 Million Units 3Q02: 2.95 Million Units
Market Growth Rate: 16.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Leg
end
HP
Sam
sun
gE
lect
ron
ics
Ace
r
IBM
Fo
un
der
Ele
ctro
nic
s
TC
L
Del
l
Tri
Gem
Co
mp
ute
r
Hyu
nju
Co
mp
ute
r
3Q02
2Q03
3Q03
Market Share
Short-Term Forecast = Challenging Times
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04
Ye
ar-
Ov
er-
Ye
ar
Gro
wth
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
42%
3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04
Ye
ar-
Ov
er-
Ye
ar
Gro
wth
Stronger economic performance
Mobile PCs as the alternative platform
Home penetration
Declining component prices
Sluggish economic performance
Extended replacement cycle
Y2K replacement slowing down
PC rotation
Deskbased PCs
Mobile PCs
PC Trends
Drivers: Falling ASPs Y2K replacements Flat panel monitors Aggressive retail promotions Government initiatives Emerging markets PC as digital hub Mobility
Inhibitors: Lifecycle extensions Economic uncertainty PC budgets remain tight Developed markets remain
saturated, especially professional markets
Consumers remain cautious Enterprises adopt wait-and-see
approach toward PC purchases
Asia/Pacific PC and WorkstationsTeam 2003
South KoreaChae-gi Lee
TaiwanJennifer WuAmy Teng
IndiaVinod Nair
SingaporeLillian TaySuzie Low
Hong KongAnnie ChungJacky Yeung
Australia andNew ZealandAndy Woo
n
IndonesiaErica Gadjuli
ChinaJennifer WuAnnie Chung
PhilippinesMartin Gilliland
Malaysia and VietnamMartin Gilliland
ThailandErica Gadjuli
Andy Woo Australia and New Zealand +61 2 9459 [email protected]
Lillian Tay Singapore +65 6879 [email protected]
Suzie Low Singapore +65 6879 [email protected]
Martin Gilliland Malaysia, Vietnam and Philippines +65 6879 [email protected]
Erica Gadjuli Thailand and Indonesia +62 21 532 [email protected]
Vinod Nair India +91 22 5660 5140 [email protected]
Annie Chung Hong Kong and China +852 3402 [email protected]
Jennifer Wu Taiwan and China +886-2-27560389 ext 200 [email protected]
Amy Teng Taiwan +886-2-27560389 ext [email protected]
Chae Gi Lee South Korea +82 2 551 2439 [email protected]
Asia/Pacific PC and Workstation Team —Contact Details
Related Gartner DataquestPC and Workstation Research
Personal Computer Quarterly Statistics Asia/Pacific — Database
Workstations Quarterly Statistics Asia/Pacific — Database
Asia/Pacific: PC and Workstation Marketplace Report, 2Q03
Hong Kong: Client/Server Forecast Scenarios, 2002-2007
Singapore: Client/Server Forecast Scenarios, 2002-2007
Indonesia: Client/Server Forecast Scenarios, 2002-2007
Malaysia: Client/Server Forecast Scenarios, 2002-2007
Singapore: Users’ Perceptions of PC Technology Trends and Budget Plans
Australia: Users’ Perceptions of PC Technology Trends and Budget Plans
China: Users’ Perceptions of PC Technology Trends and Budget Plans
Taiwan: Users’ Perceptions of PC Technology Trends and Budget Plans
and more on ...
http://www.gartner.com
Asia/Pacific PC Market Analysis Teleconference, 3Q03
Andy Woo
Analyst