asiantigers_july09_issue

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | JULY 2009

Asian TigersPhiliPPinesEditor in Chief Charles Greene

Managing EditorMark Wayne

ContributorsChris Champion David Bowden Steve Lunt Daniel Chow Michael Wilson Ian Fraser

Circulation ManagerBonnie Tsang

Production ManagerFerdie Ng

Design & LayoutPaolo Yabao

Marketing & AdvertisingJanina Garcia [email protected]

Editorial & CommentsEric Wong [email protected]

Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. Suite 8156, 3905 Two Exchange Square 8 Connaught Place Central Hong Kong www.asiantir.com

No part of this magazine may be reproduced without the written permission of the publishers. Opinions in Asian Tigers magazine are the writers and not necessarily endorsed by the publishers. No responsibility will be accepted for unsolicited manuscripts or other materials.

Editorial content contained herein is provided for information only.

All rights reserved. Copyright©2009 applied for by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co.

Asian Tigers magazine is published bi-weekly by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. and is produced for them by Global Integrated Media Ltd.

Many of you know us from our on-line financial publication (asiantir.com) as well as our financial reports and newsletters. We recently decided to broaden our services and move into print media as an additional way of reaching our clients.

Written by a team of experienced journalists and editors, the articles in the magazine are wide-ranging, covering pertinent and up-to-date topics of importance so as to present a balanced and neutral view of current financial issues.

As a result, The Asian Tigers magazine gives you discerning and highly focused insight into critical investment news.

So if you need to keep updated on the latest information that helps with your portfolio, and consequently make informed decisions on your investments… then read on and enjoy.

Charlie GreeneEditor in Chief

Welcome to our first edition of Asian Tigers magazine

亞洲虎財經新聞網站（asiantir.com）以及財經報告和通訊已被廣大讀者所熟知。近期亞洲虎決定拓寬服務範圍，深入平面傳媒領域，旨在為客戶提供全方位服務。亞洲虎延聘資深作家和編輯團隊，文章涉獵廣泛，直擊時事熱點，以客觀中肯之態度評述財經話題，為您提供投資要聞之精闢見解與深刻洞察。《亞洲虎投資者報告》雜誌將以最新資訊助您穩健理財，作出明智投資決策。祝您閱讀愉快！

主編Charlie Greene謹啟

歡迎閱覽首期《亞洲虎投資者報告》雜誌

From the Editor’s Desk


Contents

The Numbers Game 數字的遊戲作者 / by Chris Champion

China’s Banking Revolution中國的銀行業改革作者 / by Michael Wilson

Indonesia Votes印尼大選作者 / by Michael Wilson

Fighting Spirit in the Philippines菲律賓的鬥志作者 / by Steve Lunt

China and the Dollar:Just a Big Bluff?中國看美元—說說而已？作者 / by Michael Wilson

Features

ChinaChina’s Banking Revolution 9

China and the Dollar: Just a big Bluff 19

15 25 22 12 6

Malaysia: Taking Care of Business馬來西亞: 新興的國際營商中心作者 / by David Bowden

IOSCO and Regulation奧巴馬的干涉主義作者 / by Ian Fraser

Emulating the Style of Fundamental Investor Rock StarsIOSCO與監管作者 / by Daniel Chow

The Recession you have when you dont have a Recession衰退論作者 / by Chris Champion

Obama the Interventionist奧巴馬的干涉主義作者 / by Michael Wilson

Technical Overview of Markets

ATIR Market Report

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Departments

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Philippines IOSCO Malaysia Indonesia Cambodia

GameYou have to dig pretty deep to find any positive aspects of the global economic downturn, but we think we have uncovered a nugget. The recession has thrown the spotlight on economic management around the world — the more you understand your problems, the better off you are trying to fix them.

要想知道全球衰退有什麼好處，非得有掘地三呎的本事，幸而我們總算有所收穫。衰退令經濟管理成為全世界的焦點——看問題要透徹，解決起來才順手。

In Cambodia, which is struggling as much as anyone with recession, that spotlight has revealed something which has received scant acknowledgement in the past — the fact that the country’s economic performance owes a great deal to women, who have for years made up more than 50% of a workforce decimated by two decades of civil war.

在柬埔寨這個深陷衰退泥潭的國家，我們發現了一個過去被人忽視的事實——該國的經濟成果頗多出自婦女之手。綿延二十年的內戰使國家千瘡百孔，多年來婦女佔了勞動力的半壁江山。

They have not received the credit they deserve, they still do not reap a fair share

of the benefits of economic growth, and they are, according to experts and development organizations, the demographic hardest hit in Cambodia by the economic crisis.

然而她們卻沒有得到應有的肯定，沒有公平地分享到經濟增長的成果，而且據專家和發展組織表示，在這場經濟危機中，她們是柬埔寨受衝擊最重的群體。

“It is not fair for our women to be contributing to the economy of the country when there is so little investment in the health, education and small and medium enterprises where women are predominant,” said Mu Sochua, a legislator and gender advocate.

身為國會議員和婦女權益倡導者的Mu Sochua表示：「在衛生，教育和中小企業投資嚴重不足，而且中小企業又以女工為主的情況下，讓我們婦女成為國家經濟的支柱是不公平的。」

Consensus forecasts are for economic recovery in Cambodia by 2010, a process, which some are seeing as a golden opportunity to empower women in both their social and economic roles.

普遍預測柬埔寨將在2010年迎來經濟復

NumbersThe

專欄作者/by Chris Champion

A Woman’s Place is in the Economy 婦女在經濟中的地位


� Asian Tiger News

Cambodian woman in the rice fields

數字的遊戲

甦，這個過程在一些人看來是提高婦女的社會和經濟地位的難得機遇。

“The global financial crisis confirms the failure of an economic model that, as agreed by many, has been made and dominated by men,” said a statement by the East Asia office of International Labor Organization. “The present crisis could present new opportunities to women to take the lead alongside men and raise their voice to change their society for the better.”

國際勞工組織東亞局的一份報告指出：「環球金融危機證明了許多人眼中由男性創造和主宰的經濟模式的失敗。當前這場危機將給女性提供新的機遇而與男性併駕齊驅，及增強她們改造社會的話語權。」|AT|

The Comforts of Home家的溫馨Melbourne, the cosmopolitan Australian city where it never rains (the 10-year drought has broken in the rest of the country but not in the south-eastern corner) and which suffered one of the highest concentrations of swine flu on the planet, has received some good news, being named by the Economist Intelligence Unit’s liveability poll as the third-most liveable city on Earth.

墨爾本，澳洲的國際大都會。整座城市幾乎終年無雨（全國其他地方已結束長達十年的乾旱，唯獨東南一隅的墨爾本是個例外），而且是世界上豬流感高發的城市之一。然而最近墨爾本卻傳來好消息，她被Economist Intelligence Unit評為全球第三的宜居城市。

The good news for Melburnians is not that their home ranks so high internationally, but that it ranks higher

“Everything reminds Milton Friedman of the money supply. Everything reminds me of sex, but I try to keep it out of my papers.” — Robert Solow, US economist.

「凡事都讓米爾頓·弗里德曼聯想到貨幣供給。凡事都讓我聯想到性愛，只是我不會把它寫進文章裏罷了。」— 羅伯特·索洛，美國經濟學家

than Sydney, which was a mere ninth place. Australian cities traditionally do well in the ECU’s annual rankings. The latest list shows Perth at equal fifth with Calgary, Adelaide at 11th and Brisbane at 16th.

其實真正讓墨爾本人樂開懷的並非是得到如此高的國際排名，而是力壓排在第九位的悉尼。在ECU的年度評選中，澳洲城市向來成績不錯。最新出爐的榜單上，珀斯與卡爾加里併列第五，阿德萊德排名十一，布里斯班則排在十六。

Vancouver was voted the world’s most liveable city, with Vienna second and Toronto fourth.

溫哥華當選全球最宜居城市，榜眼是維也納，多倫多位列第四。

They said 名人名言 ...

The highest-ranked Asian city was Osaka at 13th place, and the best-ranked American city was Washington DC at 35th. Athens was ranked worst, at 63rd, of the western European capitals with an 81.2% liveability score, but the ECU says any city with a score above 80 percent “will have few, if any, challenges to living standards.”

亞洲排名最高的城市是大阪，位列十三；美國排名最高的城市是華盛頓，為第三十五。西歐國家首都中，雅典排名最末，僅列六十三位，宜居分數為81.2%，但ECU說得分超過80%的城市「在生活水準上幾乎都無可挑剔」。

Not so liveable were Moscow at 69th spot, Beijing 76th, Johannesburg at equal 92nd with Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo,

JULY 2009 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Asian Tiger News �

At 13th place, Osaka is the highest ranked Asian city

In another time and another downturn, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt fought the Great Depression with all the weapons he could muster, boosting public spending, lowering interest rates to encourage lending etc. In 1933 the US Secretary of the Interior, Harold Ickes, was asked why the president was so bent on shaking things up. “You can’t fertilize a 40-acre field,” Ickes said, “by farting through the fence.”

在另一個年代的另一場危機中，羅斯福總統祭出了手中的所有武器對付「大蕭條」—— 擴大公共開支，減息刺激信貸…凡此種種，不一而足。1933年美國內政部長伊克斯（Harold Ickes）被問到總統何以如此大動干戈，此君答道：「你不能隔著籬笆放屁來給40英畝的土地施肥。」

Bangkok 100th, Manila 108th, New Delhi equal 114th spot with Cairo and Mumbai 120th.

排名稍遜的有莫斯科（69），北京（76），約翰內斯堡，里約熱內盧及聖保羅（併列92），曼谷（100），馬尼拉（108），新德里及開羅（併列114），孟買（120）。

Cities scoring below 50 percent, which the ECU described as presenting “daily challenges to living standards”, include Tehran, Karachi and Lagos. The three least liveable cities were Algiers, Dhaka and Harare.

得分低於50的城市包括德黑蘭，卡拉奇和拉各斯，ECU稱這些城市「每天都有生活水準上的挑戰」。排名最末的三個城市是阿爾及爾，達卡及哈拉雷。 |AT|

The Art of Spin 安撫的藝術The state of the Maldivian economy

has declined sharply since November 2008, if you believe the Maldives Monetary Authority. It reported in May 2009 that the real economy has decelerated. The authority’s quarterly economic review projected GDP growth of minus 0.3% in 2009, compared to 5.8% in 2008, and projects real output to contract by 1.3% in 2009. Crucially for the Maldives, the monetary authority

forecasts tourism to decline by 11% in calendar 2009, and the construction sector to decline by 24%.

自從2008年11月以來馬爾代夫的經濟形勢急轉直下——假如你相信馬爾代夫金融管理局的話。2009年5月馬金管局發表報告稱實體經濟出現減速，在季度經濟總結中，該局預料2009年GDP將下滑0.3%，而2008年則為增長5.8%。同時還預測2009年實體產出萎縮1.3%。對馬爾代夫來說更致命的是，金管局預料2009年旅遊業將下滑11%，建造業萎縮24%。

In the wake of all this deflating news, the Maldivian president Mohamed Nasheed addressed the nation via a press release. His government, he announced, had brought inflation down from 12.06% in 2008 to 10.38%. The number of “upmarket” tourists had “not declined much”. The number of midmarket arrivals had fallen, he noted, but the president “did not find this decline alarming”.

Well, that’s a relief. 連串壞消息過後，馬爾代夫總統納希

德（Mohamed Nasheed）透過新聞稿發表全國講話，稱政府已將通脹率從2008年的12.06%降至10.38%；「高端」遊客人數「並未減少太多」，而中端遊客人數雖有下滑，但總統「不覺得跌幅讓人不安」。

總算讓人鬆了一口氣。|AT|


Asian Tiger News�

Maldivian president Mohamed Nasheed

Vacouver in Canada has been rated as the most livable city ion the planet


Economy �

There Are mAny good reAsons why China’s investment scene has outpaced the rest of the world in the last nine months - strong domestic demand, a growing strategic presence, and a hefty US$2 trillion cushion of foreign exchange reserves, to name just three. But somehow the recent improvements within the banking sector have never really figured in foreigners’ perceptions of the situation. All of which in turn suggests that a key strength of the country is being completely ignored in their calculations.

過去九個月中國的投資形勢

在世界上一枝獨秀，這當中有許多令人信服的理由，譬如內需強勁，戰略影響力提升，還有高達兩萬億美元的外匯儲備作後盾。然而近年來銀行業的進步卻從未真正

反映在外國人對形勢的判斷中，換言之，中國的一個核心實力在他們的計算中被完全忽略了。

Things were not always this good. Seven or eight years ago, the (entirely correct) Western perception of Chinese banks was that they were overloaded with non-performing loans which they had been more or less coerced into making, often to state-owned enterprises, by the Beijing government. In 2002 the People’s Bank of China reported that these loans still accounted for as much as

26% of the outstanding loan portfolios among the Big Four banks (Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and the Commercial Bank of China). And

作者/by Michael Wilson

There are many good reasons why China’s investment scene has outpaced the rest of the world in the last nine monthsph

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中國的銀行業改革

China’s BankingR e v o l u t i o n


Economy10

yes, back in those halcyon days before America’s own credit crunch, those figures seemed pretty frightening to the analysts at Goldman Sachs and Standard & Poor’s. Unfortunately, though, that was where their perception stayed.過去的情況可不像現在這麼好。大約七，八年前，西方對中國銀行業的判斷（千真萬確）是各大銀行已在不良貸款的壓力下不堪重負，這些貸款或多或少都在中央政府的授意下被借給國有企業。2002年中國人民銀行報告稱，此類貸款佔到四大國有銀行（中國銀行，建設銀行，農業銀行，工商銀行）貸款總額的26%。放到信貸危機爆發前的美國，這樣的數字足以讓高盛和標準普爾的分析師驚恐不已。不過，這些都是陳年往事了。

The reality has been somewhat different. A series of statutory reforms since 1999 has allowed the banks to parcel up their non-performing assets and resell them onto the private market - thus collateralising their risk. A personal credit rating system has been established which has helped to foster a new market in private credit risk, and the numbers of commercial banks in China have soared. There are some 750 million bank debit cards in circulation, issued by around 110 banking institutions. Clients of the state-owned commercial banks can obtain cards allowing them to obtain goods from abroad in US dollars. Large foreign banks have been welcome in China since 2002. And, all the time, the relaxation of stock market controls is creating new opportunities for making the system

more responsive and more flexible. This is a powerful backdrop for an economy engaged in rapid growth.時移世易，1999年以來的一系列法定改革令銀行得以在非公開市場上打包出售不良資產，相當於把自身風險作了抵押。個人信用評級體系逐步建立，為私人信貸風險培育出一個新市場。與此同時，商業銀行的數量亦有大幅增長，目前全國有110多家銀行機構，銀行借記卡發行量多達7.5億張。國有商業銀行的客戶使用銀行卡便可在國外用美元購物。2002年，中國對大型外資銀行敞開大門。隨著股票市場放鬆管制，銀行系統的應變能力和靈活性大大增強。這一切都為經濟迅速增長注入強勁動力。

There are still problems, of course. Many of China’s fiscal mechanisms are opaque, to put it mildly, and the setting of interest

rates and exchange rate policy is especially complex and obscure. It isn’t always easy to get reliable data on the composition of banks’ published accounts, and there is still a lack of reliable credit information. But if anyone in the West still thinks of Chinese institutions in the old way, they have it all wrong. And if investors still fear that a restrictive banking system might hold back the burgeoning growth of the Chinese stock markets, they are half a decade out of date.當然還有一些問題。中國的財政制度還不是很透明（這是客氣的說法），尤以利率和匯率政策的製定最為複雜和模糊。要從銀行的公開報表上得到可靠的數據並非易事，而且缺少翔實的信貸資料。儘管如此，若是西方人依然用舊眼光來看待中國的銀行機構，那他們可就大錯特錯。同樣，如果投資者擔心森嚴的銀行制度會阻礙中國股市蓬勃發展，那他們的思維恐怕還停留在五年前。

Fitch Still WorriesThis year has seen a return of scepticism

in some Western quarters, however. A recent report by the Fitch credit rating agency says that credit risk is beginning to ratchet upward again, and that there might also be inflationary implications. Chinese banks lent a massive US$750 billion in the first four months of 2009, the agency says, with most of the money going to largely state-owned corporations.

惠譽的擔心今年西方世界又興起懷疑論調。信貸評級機構惠譽近期發表報告稱，信貸風險再度抬頭，通脹風險若隱若現。該機構

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Zhongshan Square

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指，2009年前四個月中國銀行業放款多達7,500億美元，其中絕大部份流向了大型國有企業。

Moreover, Fitch says that the quality of the lending itself is giving cause for concern. The global credit crunch has forced down the margins that banks can expect to make on their lending, and the response in China has been to crank up the sheer volume of bank lending in order to compensate for the reduced financial gains from each loan.更有甚者，惠譽稱這些貸款本身的質素就足以令人擔憂，環球信貸危機壓縮了銀行的貸款利差，中國的對策是促使銀行加大放貸力度，以彌補減少的貸款收益。

Beijing has been quick to dismiss Fitch’s report as a distortion of the true situation. It’s certainly true that China’s banks are being required to lend more money: only last year, but that might not actually be a problem. Premier Wen Jiabao called on the banks to boost their loan portfolios by at least RMB 5 trillion (around US$750 billion) during 2009 to support the nation’s RMB 4 trillion stimulus plan. And Xiao Gang, the chairman of the Bank of China, said in May that total bank lending is likely to top RMB 8 trillion during the year. All of which would suggest that Fitch’s view might be off-target, and that the apparent credit explosion might be exactly what the government ordered. 北京迅速駁斥了惠譽的報告，稱其歪曲事實。中國各大銀行確實被要求增加放貸（去年例外），但這也許並無不妥。溫家寶總理號召銀行把2009年貸款總量增加至少5萬億人民幣（約7,500億美元），以支持國家的4萬億人民幣經濟刺激計劃。中國銀行總裁肖鋼五月份表示，今年全行業貸款總

量可能達到8萬億人民幣。所有這些都表明惠譽過慮了，也許明顯的信貸膨脹就是政府本意。

One thing’s for sure: Those non-performing loans are still dwindling away at a rate which would make most Western bankers gnash their teeth with envy. According to the banking regulator, there are only RMB 550 billion of non-performing loans still out there - or just over 2% of the total loan portfolio for the country as a whole. Westerners may retain a few reservations about the complete accuracy of this figure, because many suspect Chinese institutions of rolling forward some bad

debts rather than declaring them. But, in these post-credit-crunch days, there are not many foreign bankers with clean enough consciences of their own to feel like throwing stones at China.有一點可以確定，那就是中國銀行業的不良貸款正以令大多數西方銀行家羡慕不已的速度下降。據銀行業監管機構統計，目前不良貸款總額有人民幣5,500億元，僅佔全國貸款總量的2%稍強。也許西方人會對這個數字的準確性有所保留，因為許多人都懷疑中國的銀行機構對待某些壞賬是採取向前滾計的手法，而不是公諸於眾。然而，經歷過信貸危機的洗禮後，想必不會再有太多外國銀行家敢大言不慚地對中國說三道四了。|AT|

China State Bank building


12 Economy

IndonesiaVotesThe sTock markeT has already made up its mind. There’ll be something seriously wrong with Indonesia’s democratic process if the incumbent president, General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, doesn’t walk home during the first round of the presidential elections that will be taking place on 8th July. The opinion polls are already giving him 60% of the prospective vote, compared about 18% for with his predecessor, Megawati Sukarnoputri, and 9% for the serving vice president, Jusuf Kalla. In April 2009, Yuhoyono’s Democratic Party won 26% of the seats in the national parliamentary - almost a third more than any other party - and accordingly, he should have no difficulty in assembling a powerful government.

股票市場已經作出選擇。如果現任總

統蘇西洛將軍（General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono）沒能在7月8日總統大選第一


輪過後榮歸故里，那一定是印尼的民主進程出了大問題。民意調查顯示蘇西洛的支持率高達六成，遙遙領先於他的前任梅加瓦蒂（Megawati Sukarnoputri）（18%），及現任副總統尤素夫（Jusuf Kalla）（9%）。2009年4月，蘇西洛領導的民主黨贏下國會的26%席位，佔全部席位將近三份之一，成為國會第一大黨，為他組建一個強力政府掃清障礙。

This is great news for the Jakarta stock exchange, which has been staging one of the biggest bounce-backs of the last

decade. Between December and mid-June, the keynote JKSE Index put on 56% - or 69% in US dollar terms. Which meant, in effect, that it was within 25% of its early-2008 highs, and twice the levels of four years ago. The Indonesian economy recorded an amazing 4.4% growth in the first quarter of 2009, at a time when most of the country’s neighbours were struggling with the threat of recession. And even the most pessimistic forecasts are currently putting this year’s growth forecasts at 2.5% or higher.

受此消息鼓舞，雅加達交易所創出十年來最大升幅。從12月到6月中旬，基準雅加達交易所指數（JKSE Index）飆升56%（按美元計則為69%），距離2008年年初高位不到25%，較之四年前更是翻了一倍。2009年一季度，印尼經濟令人驚訝地增長4.4%，同一時期，周邊鄰國大多還在衰退的陰影下掙扎。縱使從目前最保守的預測來看，今年的經濟也有望增長2.5%以上。

印尼大選


Economy 13

Something, then, is going very right indeed for one of the poorest countries in the Asia-Pacific region. It could, of course, simply be that the global commodities revival has given Indonesia’s mining and timber industries a special boost. But right now, the clever money is focusing instead on Yudhoyono’s own presidential qualities. The International Monetary Fund has been lavishing praise on the general and his central bank for their positive responses to the global credit crunch (see below). And the Moody’s credit rating agency recently upgraded Jakarta’s Ba3-rated government bonds from ‘stable’ to ‘positive’, because of what it described as “a strong growth dynamic” combined with “an increasingly effective macro-economic policy framework” from Yudhoyono’s government.

對於亞太地區最貧窮國家之一的印尼來說，一切似乎順風順水，也許我們可以將此簡單歸結為全球大宗商品市場復甦令印尼的採礦業和林業獲益匪淺，不過眼下「熱錢」看重的卻是蘇西洛本人的領袖才華。國際貨幣基金組織對蘇西洛將軍和他的中央銀行在環球信貸危機中的出色表現大加讚賞（見下文）。穆迪近期則把印尼的Ba3級政府債券調高評級，從「穩定」升為「正面」，理由是在蘇西洛政府「日益奏效的宏觀經濟政策框架」下「增長動力強勁」。

All very encouraging. But perhaps the most significant trend has been happening on the political front. At home, Yudhoyono has acquired a reputation for openness and plain dealing which his rivals find it hard to match. Abroad, he is remembered as the instigator of Indonesia’s decisive response to the Bali bombing of 2002, which killed 202 people and whose perpetrators were tracked down and finally executed in November 2008. Yudhoyono is said to have excellent personal relations with

Barack Obama, who is planning a state visit to Indonesia this year.

大好形勢下，政治層面的進步尤其令人矚目。在國內，蘇西洛的開明清廉家喻戶曉，遠非其競爭對手可比。在國外，他被認為是印尼果斷處理2002年峇里島爆炸案的幕後英雄，此案奪去202條性命，兇手終被繩之以法並於2008年11月處決。據說蘇西洛與奧巴馬私交甚深，後者正打算今年出訪印尼。

However, all this international approval doesn’t mean that the electoral process will necessarily be a shoo-in for the incumbent president. To be re-elected at the first round, Yudhoyono will need to win 50% of the total votes cast on 8th July, plus at least 20% of the vote in at least half of the 33 national provinces.

But if he fails to reach this threshold, the vote will go to a second round in September. The interval would give his adversaries plenty of time to regroup and to step up their grass-roots campaigns. So it’s not all over yet.

不過，這些國際上的肯定並不表示蘇西洛的競選之路將會一帆風順。在7月8日的第一輪選舉中，蘇西洛需要贏得五成選票，另加33個省份中至少一半省份的20%選票，否則就得在9月份舉行第二輪選舉。前後兩輪的間隔或會給他的對手們以可乘之機重新集結，及煽動草根階層，所以未來仍有變數。

Meanwhile, we shouldn’t let ourselves be too badly distracted by that 4.4% economic growth figure during the first quarter of 2009. By most estimates, the

Bali bombing in 2002

Indonesian President, General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Malaysian Prime Minister, Dato’ Seri Abdullah bin Haji Ahmad Badawi


Economy14

country’s economy was benefiting from a short-term boost that actually came from the national parliamentary election itself. All that campaign spending, all that pork-barrel politicking and all those ‘timely’ adjustments to the economic statistics will have had an effect on the overall result. It would be more than enough if the second-quarter figures showed a 2% annual rise, at a time when most of the smaller Asia-Pacific countries look set to fall by 4-8%.

與此同時，我們也不該被2009年一季度4.4%的經濟增長衝昏頭腦。根據大多數估計，印尼的經濟增長其實是得益於國會選舉本身的短期刺激。考慮到所有的選舉開支，「政治紅包」還有經濟統計的「適時」調整，整體經濟數據難免會受影響。

展望第二季度，亞太地區多數小國家的經濟都要萎縮4-8%左右，所以印尼的經濟能增長2%就算不錯。

All of which brings us back to the reasons why Indonesia has had such an easy ride through the year of the credit crunch. Unlike most of the region, Jakarta’s reliance on foreign trade is small in relation to the size of its overall economy. So, while neighbours such as Thailand or South Korea have been grappling with 30-50% falls in their exports, the strength of Indonesia’s own consumer market has played a significant role in keeping it on course. Obviously, Yudhoyono deserves full personal credit for having launched a Rp73 trillion (US$7.3bn) stimulus package which has

Mall Taman Anggrek, translated to “Orchid Garden Mall” in English

galvanised the economy with a range of high-profile public construction projects including bridges, roads and airports. But, with a value of barely US$30 per person, the government package is puny compared with other countries in the region are spending. The impact of the plan, in other words, is political rather than economic. But then again, if it brings the voters onside for Yudhoyono, maybe that won’t be so bad.

現在我們來談談為什麼印尼能在這場信貸危機中獨善其身。有別於區內大多數國家，印尼的外貿依存度相對於整體經濟不算太高，所以當泰國，韓國等鄰國的出口暴跌30-50%之際，印尼的國內消費市場卻在危機中發揮了中流砥柱作用。蘇西洛推出73萬億盧比（73億美元）經濟刺激計劃，透過建造橋樑，公路和機場等大型公共建設項目提振經濟，此舉無疑為他加分不少。只是這份計劃跟區內其他國家相比實在是小手筆，分攤到人頭才30美元而已，換個角度看，它的政治意義要大於經濟意義。不過，若能討得選民歡心，又何樂而不為。

Finally, we shouldn’t forget that the last twelve months have been a white-knuckle ride for foreign investors. The central bank’s successful policy during the credit crunch year has been to let the rupiah plummet from 9,500 to the US dollar to almost 13,000 in October 2008 - and then to let it float back up again to 10,000 in mid-2009 as the recovery got under way. All’s well that ends well, you might say. But it would be a foolish investor who overlooked the possibility that the currency upset might happen again. We can expect more volatility.

最後一點，過去十二個月對外國投資者來說可謂風聲鶴唳，而印尼央行臨危不亂，決策英明，先是使盧比兌美元的匯率從9,500大幅貶值到2008年10月的將近13,000，又在經濟踏上復甦軌道後使匯率回升到2009年中期的10,000。也許你會說「結果好則萬事好」，但若因此忽視幣值再度反復的可能，那將極不明智。可以預見未來將有更大波動。|AT|

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the strength of Indonesia’s own consumer market has played a significant role in keeping it on course

PhilippinesF i g h t i n g s P i r i t i n t h e


Economy 15

作者/by Steve Lunt

菲律賓的鬥志

To baTTle wiTh a monsTer recession, you need fighting spirit – and there seems to be plenty of it around the Philippines. Perhaps this should come as no surprise: the country’s national hero Manny Pacquaio is now widely regarded as one of the greatest boxers the world has ever seen, and the modest 30 year-old Filipino fighter has already become a legend in his own short life-time.

要想抵禦洪水猛獸般的經濟衰退，你需要

有頑強的鬥志，而菲律賓人從不缺少鬥志。說來並不奇怪，因為菲律賓的民族英雄帕奎奧（Manny Pacquaio）就是舉世公認的最偉大拳擊手之一，這位謙遜有加，年僅三十的菲律賓拳王，已然化身為一部傳奇。

But the International Monetary Fund has just delivered a challenging blow to the nation’s confidence by reporting more pessimistically on the outlook for the Philippines economy - so can the country’s business leaders take a hard punch, and still come out swinging?

然而國際貨幣基金組織的一份報告卻給

了這個國家的信心重重一擊，它用十分悲觀的口吻描述了菲律賓經濟的前景。那麼，菲國的商業翹楚們是否還能揮出重拳，擊敗困難呢？

The ProblemsThe IMF now expects the country’s

economy to contract for the first time

since the Asian financial crisis more than a decade ago. It says the impact on the Philippines of the global economic crunch will be worse than it initially expected, and predicts that the country is more likely to experience a one per cent decline in its GDP this year. The agency says a weaker demand for exports


Economy16

and lower domestic consumption are contributing factors in the downturn.

問題IMF目前預料菲律賓經濟或會出現十多年

前亞洲金融危機以來的首次衰退，稱環球經濟危機對菲律賓的影響比當初設想的更糟，估計今年GDP很可能下滑1%。該機構表示，疲弱的出口需求和萎縮的國內消費是經濟倒退的主因。

The United States and Europe are two of the Philippines’ biggest export markets, but the National Statistics Office has just reported that the country’s exports plunged 36 percent in January to April compared with the same period last year.

美國和歐洲是菲律賓最大的兩個出口市場，而據國家統計局統計，1-4月菲律賓的出口已比去年同期驟降36%。

The IMF also noted a decline in remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), which affect household consumption. The agency expects OFW remittances to fall by 4 percent in 2009 from last year’s $16.4 billion, which would also contribute to this year’s contraction.

IMF又指，菲律賓海外勞工（下稱「外勞」）的匯款減少影響到家庭消費，預料2009年外勞匯款總額將比去年的164億美元下降四個百份點，這也是今年經濟萎縮的原因之一。

The Solutions?While still expecting positive growth

this year, the government has cut its target to between 0.8 per cent and 1.8 per cent, due to the “larger impact of the global crisis on the domestic economy”.

解題雖然政府預料今年經濟仍可增長，但已

把目標下調到0.8-1.8%，主要考慮到「環球危機對國內經濟的巨大衝擊」。

The regional IMF mission chief Il Houng Lee says the only way the Philippines could prevent a contraction this year would be for the government to shore up public spending to a very high level. But he recognises this would harm the country’s fiscal condition and its credit standing with international and domestic financial markets. Such low confidence in the government would lead to higher interest rates on its borrowings, and increase its already high public sector debt.

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SM Mall of Asia, the biggest mall in the Philippines

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Economy 17

IMF駐本地區代表Il Houng Lee表示，菲政府避免今年經濟衰退的唯一辦法是大力增加公共開支。但他承認，這會損害菲律賓的財政狀況及其在國際國內金融市場的信用地位。政府底氣不足就得為借債付出更高利息，令本已沉重的公共債務雪上加霜。

The Philippines government is allowing itself a budget deficit equivalent to 2.5 percent of this year’s GDP. While the IMF believes this could be raised to 3.5 percent of GDP to maximize the impact of public spending on the economy without adversely affecting credit standing, Lee says containing the fiscal gap within that range is important considering the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 54 percent, which is one of the highest in the region.

菲政府給自己設定的預算赤字上限為今年GDP的2.5%。Lee表示，因為菲律賓的債務佔GDP比重已達54%，是區內最高的國家之一，所以必須得把財政缺口控制在這個範圍內。但是IMF認為，要想使公共開支對經濟的提振效應最大化又不致損害信用地位，這個限度得提高到3.5%。

So, as the country faces this Big Prize Fight where it must parry and thrust to protect and promote its economy, the business community will have to knock-out the formidable challengers brought on by the recession. And this is where that Filipino fighting spirit could make itself useful in the ring.

看來，菲律賓確實面臨著一場艱巨考驗，必須兼顧防守與攻擊，方能保護和促進經濟，而商界也要克服衰退帶來的巨大挑戰，現在是展現菲律賓人頑強鬥志的時候了。

Food for ThoughtJollibee Foods Corporation are the

country’s leading fast-food chain, recently voted the “most-admired” company in the Philippines following a recent survey of international business leaders - where

“We always practise financial management conservatism. This practice has made JFC ride out past economic and financial challenges unscathed.” —Tony Tan Caktiong, CEO Jollibee Food Corp.

JFC was noted for its ability to stimulate local consumer spending despite the economic slump.

思考快樂蜂餐飲集團（Jollibee Foods

Corporation）是菲律賓首屈一指的快餐連鎖企業。在近期一項國際商業領袖調查中，快樂蜂被評為該國「最受欽佩」的公司，其最突出之處是能夠在經濟不景氣時刺激國內消費者的開支。

The company has recently reached further into a broad-based market through its chain Manong Pepe, which makes local food accessible to people on very low daily budgets. They’ve also sought to develop interdependent relationships with local farmers and suppliers in rural communities, as part of its value chain.

近年來，公司通過旗下的Manong Pepe連鎖店佔領了廣大市場，其制勝法寶就是以非常實惠的價格供應地方美食。另外還與當地農村的農戶和供應商建立起互助關係，作為其價值鏈的一部份。

Jollibee’s Chairman Tony Tan Caktiong is confident about the Philippines prospects, as he believes there’s a typical natural restraint over spending – both at government levels and with individual consumers.

快樂蜂總裁陳覺中堅定看好菲律賓的未來，他認為在開支上不論是政府還是個人消費者都有一種天生的節儉精神。

In a recent interview with the Philippine Daily Inquirer, Tan Caktiong said “We always practise financial management conservatism. This practice has made JFC ride out past economic and financial challenges unscathed. In 2008, when everyone was reeling from high commodity prices and financial markets were on the brink of collapse, JFC were very busy investing for the future. Because of our financial conservatism, JFC has been operating without debt for many years. For the most part, our investment in new stores, commissaries and acquisitions were financed by cash generated by our own business. As a result, we have been able to sustain healthy profit consistently over the years.”

最近接受《菲律賓每日調查》（Philippine Daily Inquirer）訪問時，陳覺中說道：「我們一貫踐行節儉理財，正是這種做法讓快樂蜂安然度過一次次經濟和財政困難。2008年，當每個人都被高漲的商品價格嚇得不知所措，金融市場搖搖欲墜之際，快樂蜂卻在忙著為未來投資鋪路。因為財政上的節儉，多年來快樂蜂是無債一身輕。一般來說，我們投資於新店，原料採購和兼併收購，用的都是自身業務產生的現金，因而得以許多年來始終保持穩健的盈利。」

Tan Caktiong believes the Philippines central bank - Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas - is a good example of the financial conservatism that’s so typical in the Philippines, which helps the country avoid those risks that come from too much spending. In its recent survey the Bank noted that ordinary Filipinos tend to follow this careful tradition, as families of OFWs are investing more than they used to during these difficult times.

陳覺中認為菲律賓中央銀行（Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas）就是國人節儉精神的代表，央行使國家避免了過度開支的風險。在近期的調查中，央行指出在當前的困難時期，外勞的家庭比從前更多地把錢用在

Tony Tan Caktiong, CEO Jollibee Food Corp


Economy18

投資上，可見菲律賓百姓保持著小心謹慎的傳統。

Sparks of EnergySince the 1970s, MD Juan Enterprises

have been making and exporting ‘new but old’ vintage Jeep bodies and parts to collectors of the famous World War Two U.S. military vehicles. Most of their buyers were in the US, Canada, and Europe. But these export markets have been badly hit by the current global crisis, with sales plummeting at an “alarming rate” - by 50 percent - according to their Vice-President of Marketing and Sales, Rommel Juan.

(about US$13,000) to corporate buyers in the private and public sector across the archipelago.

危機爆發兩個月後，胡安意識到要想生存下去，必須把目光放到本國市場。於是他們銳意創新，研製出一種環保乘用車——「電動吉普尼」（eJeepney）。2008年9月第一部電動吉普尼下線，目前這款產品售價625,000比索（約13,000美元），主要供應國內私營和公營部門的公司買家。

Early domestic sales of the new eJeepney have already enabled MD Juan to recover some 50% of their export losses, and their future looks more promising now. Although eJeepneys are currently limited because of their low range - 65 kilometres - on one overnight charge, MD Juan are working on the development of faster charging batteries that deliver a greater mileage. Once this is viable the company can start to make real in-roads into the huge potential of the domestic market: their environmentally friendly units could eventually replace the 250,000 diesel fume-belching vehicles that swarm around the Philippines as the country’s main means of public transport. Their first goal is to replace the fleet of 70,000 jeepneys currently plying the streets of Metro Manila.

電動吉普尼投放國內市場不久，便讓MD Juan彌補了大約五成的出口損失，其前景可謂一片光明。現在的電動吉普尼還不算十全十美，因為充電一夜只能行駛65公里，但是MD Juan正在研製充電更快，單次充電行程更長的電池。如果成功的話，就能把國內市場的巨大潛力真正釋放出來：他們的環保車將最終取代25萬輛噴著黑煙穿行在菲律賓街頭的柴油車，成為國內主要的公共交通工具。他們的初步目標是取代馬尼拉市的7萬輛吉普尼。

EJeepneys have also been recognised internationally as having the potential

to bring significant benefits to the environment, substantially reducing carbon emissions – because only clean air is left in their wake.

電動吉普尼排放的氣體是清潔的，十分有益於環境，可大量減少碳排放，所以在國際上也深受好評。

As Juan cheerfully says: “It’s during tough times that one characteristic of the Filipino stands out - his resiliency. If one door closes, another one opens. You just have to be there when it does!”

胡安得意地說：「時勢艱辛方顯菲律賓人的本色，那就是百折不撓。東方不亮西方亮，功夫不負有心人！」

Although this year’s prognosis is downbeat, the IMF are predicting the Philippines will experience a modest recovery to 2.5 percent growth in 2010. And with the spirit of people like Pacquaio, Tan Caktiong and Juan leading the fight, there’s plenty of room for optimism in this sunny archipelago.

雖然今年前景黯淡，但IMF估計菲律賓經濟將會在2010年溫和復甦，增長2.5%。其實，只要具備帕奎奧，陳覺中和胡安這些人的精神，這個陽光島國就足以笑面困難。|AT|

新路自從七十年代以來，MD Juan

Enterprises一直從事製造和出口吉普老爺車的車身和配件，買主則是這種二戰時期著名的美國軍車的藏家，他們大多來自美國，加拿大和歐洲。然而環球經濟危機下，出口市場遭到重創，銷售業績一落千丈，負責市場推廣和銷售的副總裁胡安（Rommel Juan）說萎縮幅度達到「驚人的」五成。

Two months into the crisis Juan realised that in order to survive, the company needed to get into the local market. So they got creative, and developed an environmentally friendly passenger-carrying vehicle - the ‘electric jeepney’. The first ‘eJeepney’ rolled off the production line in September 2008. The eJeepneys are now selling for 625,000 pesos MD Juan Enterprises crew The electric powered ‘eJeepney’

Maximino “Minong” Dionisio JuanFounder of MD Juan Enterprises


Economy 19

China and The Dollar

Guo ShuqinG, the chairman of the China Construction Bank (CCB), is not used to making headlines in the Western press. But he certainly managed that on 8th June. The indomitable Mr Guo declared that the United States government ought to think seriously about issuing some of its treasury bonds in renminbi instead of dollars. A thought which didn’t elicit much more than a snort from the Treasury. But then, he wasn’t demanding that Washington should go the whole hog. A mere RMB 3 billion worth of US issues would make a big contribution toward kick-starting a “eurobond” market in the Chinese currency, he said. And it might

perhaps eventually lead to full convertibility.

郭樹清，這位中國建設銀行的董

事長似乎還不習慣面對西方媒體下達最後通牒，但他在6月8日確實這麼做了。性格直率的郭先生說，美國政府應該認真考慮發行一些人民幣債券取代美元債券。如此想法當然只會換來美國財政部的嗤之以鼻。不過，郭先生的本意並不是要華盛頓徹底改弦更張。他說，只要美國發行30億人

民幣的債券，就會極大促進一個以中國貨幣計值的「歐洲債券」市場的形成，也許最終會促成人民幣的全面兌換。

There the matter would probably have stayed, had it not been for an earlier demand from Zhou Xiaochuan, the head of the People’s Bank of China, that the international community should create a new reserve currency to replace the dollar. Mr Zhou’s declaration had probably not been intended to be much more than a thought-provoking ‘position piece’ ahead of the forthcoming G20 summit meeting in London - but in its own way it was perfectly valid. Why, exactly, should the world continue to base its currency systems on the economic standing of a country which was once one of the world’s biggest exporters, but which is now by far its biggest debtor? A country which looks likely to notch up a $2 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2009?不久前，中國人民銀行行長周小川也呼籲國際社會創造一種新的儲備貨幣來取代美元。或許周先生的講話只是想給倫敦的G20峰會提個醒，但絕對不是說說而已。當一個曾經的全球頭號出口國已經淪落為最大的債務國，當這個國家2009財年的預算赤字直逼兩萬億美元的時候，為什麼還要把全世界的貨幣體制緊系於這個國家的信用地位？

—說說而已？- Just a Big Bluff?

中國看美元

China Construction Bank

And those fixed-rate bonds are only

worth holding if the inflation rates in the

countries that issue the bonds are expected

to stay low enough to make the investment

worthwhile.



Economy20

That thought was clearly preoccupying Premier Wen Jiabao back in March, when he asked the US to guarantee the safety of China’s US debt. It was not that he really feared that America might actually default on the estimated $1.5 trillion of dollar holdings that dominates the central bank’s foreign currency reserves. Rather, he was calling on President Barack Obama to take responsibility for the likelihood that America’s colossal budget overspend will necessitate a vast bond issuance.其實早在三月份，溫家寶總理就有過這樣的念頭，他呼籲美國保證中國手中的美國債務的安全。他並不是害怕美國賴賬不還，危及央行外匯儲備中佔絕大多數的1.5萬億美元。事實上，他是在敦促奧巴馬總統認真對待美國因為龐大的預算虧空被迫大舉借債的可能性。

Mr Wen wasn’t wrong. On 2nd June, the Bank for International Settlements reported that net US government bond issuance in the first quarter of 2009 had risen to $344 billion - nearly six times the levels of the previous quarter. US companies, too, had quadrupled their issues to $179 billion. The Western press did its best to portray this as a sign that the international money markets were returning to health. But others thought they knew better.

溫先生說的沒錯。6月2日，國際結算銀行報告稱2009年一季度美國政府債券發行量達3,440億美元，幾乎六倍於上個季度。同期，美國企業債券發行量也增加四倍，達到1,790億美元。西方媒體盡其所能將此描繪成是國際貨幣市場恢復健康的信號，但明眼人一望便知媒體的言不由衷。

The essential problem with China’s vast holdings of US government bonds is that the overwhelming majority carry fixed rates of interest. And those fixed-rate bonds are only worth holding if the inflation rates in the countries that issue the bonds are expected to stay low enough to make the investment worthwhile. So, if Beijing buys 10-year bonds this year with a market yield of 3.7%, it will be very unhappy if it thinks that US inflation might hit 4% at any time during those ten years, because the bonds will effectively be ‘under water’. It would become even less happy if other people feared the same thing, because then there’d be a real danger of a stampede out of US paper.中國大量持有美國國債的一個根本問題是這些債券絕大多數都是固定利息的。對於定息債券來說，只有當發債國的預期通脹率保持足夠低時，這些債券才值得持有。假設北京今年購買十年期債券，市場收益率為3.7%，那麼未來十年一旦美國的通脹率達到4%，對北京就非常不利，因為

這些債券事實上已無價值可言。而且，如果別人也有如此擔心，那就更糟了，因為這將引發拋售美國債券的風險。

What would happen then? The dollar would fall heavily, and Beijing would be faced with a second layer of capital losses on top of the painful yield losses it was already making. That’s quite a sobering prospect, considering that Japan and China between them are currently believed to be covering more than 60% of America’s new government bond issues. 接下來美元將急劇貶值，本已顆粒無收的北京，此時又要面臨虧本的危險。這是一個必須正視的現實，因為新發行的美國政府債券中，據信有六成多都是日本和中國兩家認購的。|AT|

Premier Wen Jiabao

Bank for International Settlements


Economy 21

The Different View from Washington 華盛頓的小算盤

A return to high inflation? Surely that couldn’t happen? Well, possibly it could - and at Washington’s instigation too. America’s consumer prices fell by a worrying 1.7% in the year to May 2009, and even the most optimistic scenarios depict a 0.8% fall for the year as a whole. So these days, the US government is really rather keen to get inflation restarted.重回高通脹時代是不可能的嗎？當然不是，這也正中華盛頓下懷。2009年5月美國的消費者物價大跌1.7%，縱使最樂觀的預測全年也要下滑0.8%，所以如今的美國政府其實更想重新啟動通脹。

The problem with deflation is that it encourages consumers to postpone buying things that they might otherwise have bought today. And that’s bad for economic growth. So when President Barack Obama announced his $787 billion stimulus programme earlier this year, he was fully aware that the huge issue of US government bonds he would soon be making would create some very big, and hopefully beneficial, inflationary pressures. Besides, he might have said, inflation helps borrowers because it drives down the effective burden of their

debts. So, as long as it doesn’t get out of hand - and let’s remember, US consumer price inflation was 4.2% only a year ago! - rising prices are a win-win situation.一旦陷入通貨緊縮，消費者便會捂緊銀包推遲消費，這對經濟增長十分不利。因此，當奧巴馬總統今年初宣佈7,870億美元的經濟刺激計劃時，他對不久後大量發行國債所可能造成的嚴重的（但願是有益的）通脹壓力已是心知肚明。也許他會說，通脹對借債者有好處，因為它能減輕債務負擔，故而只要情況還沒失控（別忘了一年前美國的消費者物價指數只有4.2%），物價上漲就是雙贏的。

Alas, only for US institutions! Everyone else loses. And it ought to be clear that Mr Wen’s perspective is rather different from Mr Obama’s.遺憾的是，這當中的贏家只有美國機構，其他人皆為輸家。要知道，溫先生的看法可跟奧巴馬先生截然不同。

In the final analysis, however, there is a certain element of theatre in all

The problem with deflation is that it encourages consumers to postpone buying things that they might otherwise have bought today. And that’s

bad for economic growth.

this. China is undoubtedly justified in its demand for a readjustment of the international currency basket that currently underpins central bank valuations. And it has a right to be worried about US budgetary policy, for all the reasons we’ve explored. But, as long as the central bank holds such a colossal volume of US debt - around six months’ worth of its own GDP - it cannot weaken the dollar’s international desirability without inflicting fairly severe pain on itself. Effectively, most of the exit routes are already closed.然而，這一切又都是不得已而為之。中國無疑有合情合理的需要來重新調整目前作為央行估值基礎的國際貨幣籃子。出於方方面面的原因，中國也的確有權擔心美國的預算政策。可是，既然央行已經沾手如此龐大的美國債務（約佔全年GDP的一半），那就沒法輕易削弱美元的國際地位又不致傷及自身。畢竟，大多數的退路都已被堵住。|AT|

Washington

U.S, President Barrack Obama

22 Economy


作者/by David Bowden

As the economies of the region continue to be dragged into the global economic meltdown most companies are seeking traditional and innovative ways to cut back on their expenses. Some are even reassessing whether they continue to operate in the region and if they do, as to whether they maintain their headquarters in their current location or relocate to more favourable centres.

隨著本地區各經濟體深陷全球衰退泥潭，許多公司都在尋求傳統與創新的途徑削減開支。有的公司已在考慮是否繼續留在本地區，如果決定留下，則公司總部是原地不動，還是擇優遷往別的中心。

The region’s existing financial capitals of Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore are no longer cheap locations in which to operate and secondary cities

such as the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur look increasingly more appealing these days.

放眼區內現有的金融中心，東京，上海，香港和新加坡的營商成本已然不低。相比之下，諸如馬來西亞首都吉隆坡這樣的二線城市，吸引力則越來越大。

How does Kuala Lumpur shape up as a centre for business and a place for expatriates to live in?

那麼，吉隆坡是否有潛力成為營商中心和外籍僱員的家園？

Economic Miracle on HoldIt has also been claimed that Malaysia’s success has been somewhat of an economic miracle. Others on the ground note that what has been achieved with the economy is not a miracle but rather one that required hard work and which

was built up brick by brick with visionary leadership and with the support of the populace.

大馬奇跡有人說馬來西

亞的成功是個經濟奇跡，也有人說經濟上的成就與其說是奇跡，毋寧說是全體國民在英明領導下，通過一磚一瓦的積累和艱苦奮鬥換來的成果。

While it once recorded solid

annual economic growth the Malaysian economy has been affected by declining exports and lower manufacturing production. Over the past 12 months exports have slumped 15.6% and industrial production fell in March for the seventh month in a row and down 4.4% over the past year. The decline has

Taking Care of BusinessMALAYSIA

Prime Minister and Finance Minister Najib Abdul Razak

PHOTOGRAPH © SHAmSHAHRin

新興的國際營商中心馬來西亞


Economy 23

been the steepest the country has ever experienced but revised GDP figures still predict a growth of between 0.9% and 1.3% for the year with a turn around expected in the second half of the year. These declines have been offset by a stronger than expected domestic market and a slight drop in the annual inflation rate to 3.5%.

儘管全年經濟穩步增長，但馬來西亞也受到出口下滑和製造業萎縮的衝擊。過往十二個月出口下滑15.6%，3月份工業生產連續第七個月下跌，去年萎縮4.4%，這是該國經歷的最嚴重的衰退。不過，經修訂GDP數據顯示全年增長仍能達到0.9%至1.3%左右，而且預料下半年就會走出低谷。得益於國內市場比預期強勁，加上全年通脹率輕微降至3.5%，故而抵銷出口和製造業疲弱的影響。

Prime Minister and Finance Minister Najib Abdul Razak took office in March replacing the outgoing Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi. The new PM’s liberalisation package announced in April was designed to attract foreign investment. One of the key strategies is to eliminate local equity requirements in parts of the service industry.

今年3月，納吉（Najib Abdul Razak）接替前任首相巴達維（Abdullah Badawi）出任首相兼財政部長。4月，新首相公佈自由化政策旨在吸引外資，其中一條重要策略是解除部份服務業的本土企業參股規定。

Even prior to this package Malaysia has been considered by many to have an edge over several of its neighbours. In its ‘Offshore Location Attractiveness Index’, global management consultants A.T. Kearney note that Malaysia is among the top three contenders for offshoring business in the world. They state that it is a ‘natural choice’ for offshore services in view of its low costs, particularly for infrastructure, the most attractive environment among emerging markets and, its high levels of global integration.

其實在此之前，馬來西亞就被許多人所看好，認為大馬相比幾個鄰國更具優勢。環球管理諮詢機構科爾尼（A.T. Kearney）在其編撰的「離岸地區吸引力指數」（Offshore Location Attractiveness Index）中指出，馬來西亞是世界上最具實力爭奪離岸商務的三個國家之一。該機構稱，大馬的低成本，尤其是基礎設施，新興市場中最具吸引力的環境以及高度的全球化程度，令該國成為離岸服務的「必然選擇」。

Diversified EconomyMalaysia is fortunate in having abundant natural resources from timber to oil as well as fertile soil. This has provided a solid foundation and a basis for past economic growth. However, what was once a primary resources-driven economy based upon rubber and oil palm plantations, supported by logging, tin mining and oil has now diversified into manufacturing and services.

多元經濟馬來西亞擁有得天獨厚的自然條件，土

壤肥沃，森林，石油等資源豐富，這為國家奠定堅實基礎，亦是過往經濟增長的有力保障。曾幾何時，馬來西亞還是一個依靠初級資源經濟的國家，主要經濟活動是橡膠和油棕種植，輔以伐木，錫礦開採和石油。而今的馬來西亞早已形成製造業和服務業並舉的多元經濟體系。

The economy is now manufacturing-based, export-driven and supplemented by high technology knowledge-based and a capital-intensive service industries.

今天的經濟以製造業為基礎，以出口為驅動，輔以高科技知識產業和資本密集型服務業。

Malaysia’s much heralded Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC) centred on the new administrative capital of Putrajaya and its adjoining Cyberjaya, located 30 minutes south of Kuala Lumpur, supports the latest telecommunications infrastructure.

被人津津樂道的「多媒體超級走廊」（Multimedia Super Corridor，簡稱MSC），覆蓋新行政首都普特拉賈亞（Putrajaya）和相鄰的賽柏賈亞（Cyberjaya），距吉隆坡南部半小時路程，支援最先進的電訊基礎設施。

While current global economic crisis has stalled the nation’s ongoing growth, Malaysia has weathered the financial turbulence better than some of its trading partners.

全球經濟危機固然拖慢了大馬繼續前進的腳步，但相比一些貿易夥伴，馬來西亞抵禦金融動盪的能力顯然更強。

Political stability, sound economic financial policies and a strong resource base have helped. Trade figures are still healthy and today, Malaysia is the world’s 18th leading exporting nation. Manufacturing accounts for a little over 30% of GDP, although the current


Economy24

economic downturn has affected this. Almost 80% of the country’s total exports are derived from the manufactured goods sector with semi-conductor devices, audio and video products, home air-conditioners and computer hard disks being the main items.

穩定的政局，妥當的經濟政策及堅實的資源基礎，這些都是馬來西亞的優勢。貿易狀況保持穩健，如今馬來西亞已是全球排名18的出口大國。雖然受到經濟下滑影響，製造業佔GDP比重仍在30%以上，以半導體設備，影音產品，家用空調和電腦硬盤為主的製造品，佔到出口總額的將近八成。

Connectivity and EducationMalaysia’s well-developed and coordinated infrastructure provides an important framework that supports manufacturing. This includes an international airport hub, well-equipped seaports, an integrated road system and an advanced telecommunications network.

交通發達教育普及馬來西亞擁有發達完備的基礎設施，包

括國際空港樞紐，設施完善的港口，四通八達的公路系統和先進的電訊網絡，為製造業提供有力保障。

This is driven by a well-educated populace with a literacy rate of 94%. Many of the population that exceeds 26 million are bilingual and English is understood by a good percentage of the population.

國民普遍受過良好教育，識字率達94%，超過2,600萬人能講兩種語言，許多人通曉英語。

Quality of LifeMalaysia’s high quality of life complements the country’s rising economy and financial connectivity. In 2008, Mastercard placed Kuala Lumpur at number 50 on its list of ‘Best Financial Cities’ in the world.

優質生活馬來西亞與世界的經濟和金融聯繫日

益增強，更有優越的生活質素。2008年，吉隆坡入選Mastercard全球「最佳金融城市」，排名50位。

But those who want to be part of the financial and industrial scene also want

a high quality of life for themselves and their family. Malaysia and especially the capital city of Kuala Lumpur offer this with good educational opportunities, transportation, shopping and recreational facilities, nearby holiday destinations, excellent medical facilities, value-for-money housing and excellent recreational opportunities.

要想讓僱員真正融入金融和工業化氛圍，需要給他們及其家人提供高質素的生活。馬來西亞特別是首都吉隆坡擁有良好的教育，交通，購物和康樂設施，毗鄰度假勝地，醫療設施先進，住房廉宜，生活便利。

country are much more expensive than the local schools, they too are more competitively priced than many others in the region. Several international schools in the capital follow overseas curriculums of various countries including the United Kingdom, USA, Australia, Japan, Germany and France.

跟東京，上海，香港和新加坡這些金融中心相比，馬來西亞的生活成本相當低廉。國際學校雖比本地學校貴不少，但較區內其他國際學校便宜許多。首都有多家國際學校開辦海外課程，跟英國，美國，澳洲，日本，德國，法國等接軌。

While Kuala Lumpur is within a short air flight of all its neighbouring South East Asian nations there are many local holiday destinations for expatriates seeking a weekend or more extended escape. These range from the duty-free resort island of Langkawi to cool highland retreats, diving on world-class reefs located around idyllic islands, rainforest adventures and, cultural encounters on the island of Borneo.

從吉隆坡搭乘航班，不久便可抵達周邊的東南亞鄰國。馬來西亞有許多度假勝地，方便外籍僱員週末度假，享受悠長假期，例如免稅度假天堂蘭卡威島，涼爽宜人的高原山莊，美麗小島的世界級珊瑚礁潛水樂園，熱帶雨林探險，還有婆羅洲島的人文風情。

One-Stop ShopThe Malaysian Government is keen to attract foreign investment and has established the Malaysian Industrial Development Authority (MIDA) as a one-stop shop to facilitate the development of the manufacturing and services sectors in the country. There is a global network of 16 overseas offices and a well-developed website (www.mida.gov.my) as the first point of reference for those interested in relocating their business to Malaysia.

一站式服務大馬政府致力吸引外資，並為此成立

馬來西亞工業發展局（MIDA），旨在提供一站式服務促進本國的製造業和服務業發展。該局擁有一個由16家海外辦事處組成的環球網絡，官方網站（www.mida.gov.my）內容詳盡，務求為有意前來大馬營商的人士提供第一手資料。|AT|

Malaysia is also a multicultural country dominated by Malays, Chinese and Indians but also with over 20 distinctive native cultures on peninsular Malaysia and the East Malaysian states of Sarawak and Sabah on the island of Borneo.

馬來西亞是一個多元文化國家，國民以馬來裔，華裔和印度裔為主，另有20多個少數民族原住民生活在馬來半島，以及東部婆羅洲島上的沙撈越與沙巴二州。

The cost of living is still very competitive when compared to the more expensive financial capitals of Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore. While the international schools in the

Outdoor shopping: ‘The Curve’ in

Kuala Lumpur


World News 25

全球化金融監管美夢難圓

The consensus among commentators and regulators is that, if crises such as the banking and financial crisis of 2008 are to be avoided in future, the world is going to have to adopt a more joined-up, globally consistent approach to financial regulation.

評論界和監管界普遍認為，要想避免

2008年的銀行和金融危機重演，世界各國需要採取一種更加齊心協力，步調一致的辦法對待金融監管。

“One of the causes of the crisis is that there was a lot of regulatory arbitrage going on, resulting in a race to the bottom in terms of quality of supervision,” said Hans Hoogervorst, chairman of the

Netherlands’ Authority for Financial Markets at the conference of the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) in early June. “It’s absolutely essential we work together on a world scale to improve the standard-setting process.”

「危機的根源之一是有太多的監管套利機會，誘使人們競相挑戰監管質素的底限，」荷蘭金融市場管理局總裁Hans Hoogervorst在6月初的國際證券事務監察委員會組織（IOSCO）大會上說道：「所以我們絕對有必要在世界範圍內改進製定標準的程序。」

In the immediate aftermath of the banking and financial crisis last autumn, it was obvious something had to be

done. Loopholes in the global regulatory framework had left large tracts of the global financial markets - including hedge funds, credit derivatives and the shadow banking system - in a regulation-free zone.

就在去年秋天的銀行和金融危機爆發後，人們意識到採取措施已是迫在眉睫。環球監管體系的漏洞給世界金融市場留下巨大隱患，諸如對沖基金，信貸衍生產品，不透明的銀行業制度都是監管上的空白地帶。

Meanwhile flawed assumptions about market efficiency had meant that even regulated activities had been inadequately supervised. Post-crisis, there were strident calls for a thorough shake-up of financial regulation - particularly in the developed markets where the crisis was spawned.

人們曾經想當然地以為市場是有效率的，可即便是受規管的活動其實也沒有得到充份監管。危機過後，要求徹底改革金融監管（尤其是危機源頭的發達市場）的呼聲不絕於耳。

Nine months on, the impetus for reform is losing momentum. Governments and regulators are finding that rewriting the regulatory rule-book is easier said than done. Since the panic subsided and with banks and financial markets stabilised the pressure for reform has dissipated.

九個月過去了，改革的動力卻在消失。政府和監管者們發現重訂監管規則是說易行難，既然恐慌已經平息，銀行和金融市場也穩定下來，改革也就不再迫切。

The reform packages that are being unveiled by governments in the US, UK and European Union have come as a disappointment to believers in reform. In the US, for example, the government has failed to address critical areas such as ‘fair-value’ accounting, the regulation of credit ratings agencies and the

Dreams of a Global Approach to Financial Regulation begin to shatter

IOSCO & ReGULATION

The consensus among academics and policymakers is that a more globally consistent approach to financial regulation will ensure there is no epeat of the credit crisis. However, since Asia has been less traumatised than developed markets such as the US or UK, policymakers in the region are beginning to wonder what’s in it for them. Ian Fraser reports.

學術界和政策制定者們普遍認為，全球一致的金融監管可確保信貸危機不再重演。然而，因為亞洲受到的衝擊遠不如美國，英國等發達市場，本地區的決策者們對全球化的金融監管莫衷一是。Ian Fraser報道

IOSCO與監管

作者/by Ian Fraser


World News26

Governor of the Bank of Israel Stanley Fischer, during the IOSCO 2009 Conference

composition of bank boards; instead these have been kicked into the long grass of further “consultation” and “review”.

美國，英國及歐盟推出的改革計劃讓改革派大失所望。以美國為例，政府根本沒有觸及「公允價值」會計，信貸評級機構監管，銀行董事會結構這樣的關鍵領域，只拿加強「諮詢」和「檢討」這些老生常談的話題了事。

The package of reforms unveiled by the administration of President Barack Obama on June 18 - which included the granting of new systemic risk powers to the Federal Reserve and the launch of additional regulatory bodies including a consumer protection agency – may paradoxically impede the chances of a new global regulatory framework.

6月18日，巴拉克·奧巴馬總統領導下的政府出台改革方案，有關舉措包括授予聯儲局新的監督系統性風險的權力，成立新的監管機構如消費者保護局等。然而矛盾

的是，這也許會成為一個新生的環球監管體系的絆腳石。

Clive Crook, a Financial Times columnist, has warned that the creation of additional regulatory bodies, apparently an attempt by Treasury secretary Tim Geithner to humour Congress, will have the downside of making future international cooperation – for example between US and Asian regulators – even harder to achieve.

《金融時報》專欄作家Clive Crook警告說，成立更多的監管機構顯然是蓋特納財長敷衍國會之舉，這將使得今後的國際合作，比如美國與亞洲監管當局的合作難上加難。

“Aside from poor oversight of the shadow banking system and the system-wide failure to account properly for risk, the biggest weakness in the existing regulatory scheme has been lack of cross-border co-operation between national regulators,” said Crook. “The more complicated the structure the harder it will be for US regulators to work with their counterparts abroad.”

Crook 指出：「除了對不透明的銀行業缺乏監管，以及整個系統普遍存在的風險評估不當之外，現有監管體系的最大弱點是各國監管當局之間缺少跨國合作，而架構越複雜，就越不利於美國監管者與外國同行的合作。」

Such issues were on the agenda at

the annual conference of IOSCO held in Tel Aviv, Israel, in early June. At the event financial regulators agreed that it is essential that globally harmonised approaches towards financial regulation should be adopted, particularly where globally-traded securities such as credit derivatives are concerned.

6月初在以色列特拉維夫舉行的IOSCO年會上，這些問題被提上日程。與會的金融監管者們認為有必要採取全球步調一致的辦法實施金融監管，尤其是對全球交易證券如信貸衍生產品的監管。

At the conference it was stressed that the EU and the US must adopt a common and consistent approach to the regulation of derivatives, whether or not this involves forcing the trading of all over-the-counter derivatives onto regulated exchanges. Regulators warned that “gaps” in supervision, similar to those that sparked the crisis, would otherwise be unavoidable.

大會強調，歐盟及美國必須採取共同而一致的辦法監管衍生產品，不論這是否會迫使所有場外交易的衍生產品回到有監管的證券交易所進行交易。監管者們警告說，如果不這麼做，類似於引發這場危機的監管「缺口」仍將不可避免。

Eddy Wymeersch, chairman of the Committee of European Securities Regulators told the IOSCO conference: “It’s absolutely essential that the two big players are aligned because these markets are in fact the same market, the same instruments traded on both sides of the Atlantic.”

歐洲證券監管機構委員會主席Eddy Wymeersch在IOSCO大會上表示：「兩大市場絕對有必要步調一致，因為大西洋兩岸其實是同樣的市場，交易的也是同樣的金融工具。」

However, senior regulators and standard-setters from the emerging markets seemed less convinced of the need for harmonised rules and regulations in the financial markets – even were credit derivatives are concerned. For the most part institutions operating in the region already abide by IFRS and Basel II bank rules, but there is still plenty of scope for divergence in other areas.

然而，新興市場的高層監管者和標準製定者似乎對金融市場協調規則與監管的必要性不以為然，即便涉及到信貸衍生產品

PhotograPh © the associated Press

Lehman’s Brothers HQ in New York AIG building in Hong Kong


World News 27

亦是如此。儘管區內機構在許多領域已經遵行國際財務報告準則（IFRS）和巴塞爾II銀行規則，但仍有不少各行其是之處。

CB Bhave, chairman of India’s Securities and Exchange Board, India, who was elected Asia-Pacific regional chairman of IOSCO at that the recent conference, warned that globalised financial regulation may turn out to be a pipe-dream. He said: “What we realised at the conference is that each country faces its own set of problems and while convergence of regulation is a good idea, I don’t know that it will work given the situations we face are really different,” he said.

現任IOSCO亞太區主席及印度證券交易委員會主席CB Bhave在大會上警告說，全球化的金融監管也許只是一場黃粱美夢。他表示：「我們在大會上意識到，每個國家都有自己的問題，監管趨同固然是妙策，可我們面對的狀況畢竟不同，所以我不知道它是否的確可行。」

Bhave pointed out that, unlike their counterparts in the US and UK, Indian regulators see no need to impose any limitations on short-selling as they regard the phenomenon as a good check and balance for determining the accuracy of share prices.

Bhave指出，有別於美國和英國的同行，

印度監管界並不認為需要對沽空加以限制，因為他們覺得沽空是對股票定價準確與否的一種良好檢驗與平衡。

This may lie behind IOSCO’s apparent vagueness on the thorny issue of short-selling - and its willingness to accept that different jurisdictions should be permitted to diverge on the matter. Kathleen Casey, chairman of IOSCO’s technical committee, said on June 22: “While IOSCO encourages a move towards a more concerted regulatory approach to short selling, it recognises that its regulation will vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction depending on local circumstances.”

或許正因如此，IOSCO才對棘手的沽空問題態度曖昧，進而有意放手不同的司法管轄區對此問題個別處理。IOSCO技術委員會主席Kathleen Casey於6月22日表示：「雖然IOSCO鼓勵採取更加一致的監管手段對付沽空，但也意識到因為各地情況千差萬別，所以各個司法管轄區的監管亦不盡相同。」

So as the West strives tighten up regulation in the wake of a hugely embarrassing crisis – some have compared it to shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted – is Asia going to sit on the sidelines?

當西方在巨大危機過後努力加強監管之

During the last quarter pf 2008, European stocks saw their biggest drop in at least 20 years, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below the 10000 mark, a stark sign that the crisis may be outpacing policy makers’ ability to contain it.

際（有人將此喻為「亡羊補牢」），莫非亞洲卻要無動於衷？

At the IOSCO conference, one thing was clear. The political hierarchies that once characterised thinking about future financial regulation have been shattered. The long-standing notion that financial markets in emerging economies should take their cue from more sophisticated markets such as US, UK, EU and Australasia no longer applies. At the very least, regulatory and political leaders in Asian economies will want to ensure their voice is heard loud and clear as the global financial architecture is remodeled.

在IOSCO大會上，有一個事實顯而易見，那就是以政治地位高低定奪金融監管方向的潛規則已經土崩瓦解。長期以來認為新興經濟體的金融市場應該從美，英，歐，澳這些成熟市場汲取經驗的觀念已然過時。歸根結底，亞洲的監管和政治精英們希望在重塑環球金融體系之際提高自己的話語權。

In future they may detect scope to lead where once they followed. Asian market regulators told the IOSCO conference that, while their markets had suffered real shocks following the collapses of Lehman’s and AIG and subsequent liquidity drought in September 2008, their securities markets had continued to function well and they said they saw little need for the extreme measures introduced elsewhere including short selling bans.

從今以後，他們將尋求機會由跟隨者變成領導者。亞洲市場的監管者們告訴IOSCO大會，雖然2008年9月雷曼兄弟和AIG的轟然倒塌，以及隨之而來的流動性枯竭令亞洲市場深受衝擊，但是他們的證

...in the wake of a hugely embarrassing crisis – some have compared it to shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted – is Asia going to sit on the sidelines?


World News28

券市場仍能平穩運行，所以沒必要引入諸如禁止沽空等極端措施。

Aberdeen Asset Management’s Asia-Pacific strategist Peter Elston believes that Asian regulators will be watching developments in the US and Europe closely but said they may not see the need to change many rules because their countries largely avoided the worst of the crisis.

安本資產管理有限公司亞太區策略師Peter Elston認為，亞洲監管者將會密切注意美國和歐洲的動向，但他們也許並不覺得有必要大舉修改規則，因為這些國家基本上都躲過了危機的最壞時刻。

Rather than throw in their lot with damaged markets and draconian measures in Europe and Asia, Asian nations may be keener to form regional alliances. Taiwan recently said it will accelerate preparatory work and explore the signing of memoranda of understanding on regulatory co-operation with IOSCO members in Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Israel, Belgium and the US.

跟歐洲和亞洲大力整頓市場和嚴加管治不同，亞洲國家似乎更熱衷於組建區域聯盟。台灣近期表示，將會加緊籌備尋求與IOSCO成員如新加坡，香港，日本，以色

列，比利時和美國簽署監管合作諒解備忘錄。

Stock exchanges in the Asean bloc are also planning further integration in a move that could provide a counterbalance to the erstwhile dominance of developed nations. The proposed integration, which will fall short of a full merger, will facilitate fund-raising activities across the economic bloc and boost the visibility of Asean capital markets. Tan Sri Zarinah Anwar, chairman of the Malaysian Securities Commission, says the move will include further integration of regional capital markets through a harmonisation of standards and the facilitation of cross-border share offerings.

東盟集團的證券交易所亦打算深入一體化，藉此抗衡發達國家昔日的主導地位。一體化方案雖未達到全面合併的程度，但卻有助促進這個經濟聯盟內的融資活動，提高東盟資本市場的能見度。馬來西亞證監會主席丹斯里安瓦爾（Tan Sri Zarinah Anwar）表示，此舉旨在透過協調標準和促進跨國招股活動，推動區域資本市場一體化。

However the notion that Singapore is such a paragon of regulation it can resist

all change is not universally shared. 有人說新加坡的監管堪稱典範，不需要

任何改變，但並不是所有人都如此以為。Kevin Scully, executive chairman and

founder of securities research house NetResearch Asia, believes the microstate must create a regulator with far-reaching powers “to help restore investor confidence in the wake of the number of corporate fraud cases and financial product mis-selling.”

證券研究機構NetResearch Asia創始人兼執行總裁Kevin Scully認為，這個微型國家一定得有一個強力監管機構，才能「在連串公司欺詐案和金融產品不當銷售事件過後重樹投資者信心」。

Scully said rules governing “independent” directors need to be tightened up. Writing in his blog, he said the independent directors at several listed Singaporean companies have recently been able to walk away from corporate “car crashes” with which they were involved.

Scully說當局需要收緊「獨立」董事規則。他在自己的網志中寫道，最近有多家新加坡上市公司的獨立董事從公司醜聞中輕鬆脫身，其實他們難逃干係。

Scully said that independent directors should in future only be elected by minority shareholders, not the majority shareholder, and that directors should be allowed to sit on the boards of no more than three listed companies. He added that they must have suitable qualifications and not remain on any board for more than five years.

Scully表示，今後獨立董事應該僅由少數股東而不是大股東推選，其兼任上市公司的董事會職務不能超過三家。他續指，他們必須具備適當資格，且任職於任何董事會都不能超過五年。|AT|

PhotograPh © stéfan

The Tokyo Stock Market

PhotograPh © stéfan


Business Analysis 29

In fInance, a fInancIal ratIo is a ratio of selected values on an enterprise’s financial statements. financial ratios are tools for interpreting financial statements to provide a basis for valuing securities and appraising financial and management performance.

財務比率是從公司財務報表上選取特定數

值計算而得的比率，可作為解讀財務報表的工具，據此釐定證券價格，評價財務和管理表現。

Investment analysts use financial ratios to compare the strengths and weaknesses in various companies. Financial ratios allow an analyst to:

投資分析師運用財務比率比較不同公司的優勢和弱勢，它能讓分析師：

✔ Standardise information from financial statements across multiple financial years to allow comparison of a firm’s performance over time. 統一比較多個財政年度的財務報表資料，藉此評價一家公司於特定時期內的表現

✔ Standardise information from financial statements from different companies in the same

sector to allow an apples to apples comparison. 統一比較同行業的不同公司的財務報表資料，起到橫向比較之效

✔ Measure key relationships by relating inputs (costs) with outputs (benefits) and facilitates comparison of these relationships over time and across firms. 衡量投入（成本）與產出（收益）的重要關係，以便在特定時期內和不同公司間比較這些關係

From a management perspective, financial ratios are used by business managers within a firm, by current and potential shareholders (owners) of a firm, and by a firm’s creditors to assess past performance and set milestones or key performance indicators for a forward looking business plan.

從管理角度來看，公司的管理人員，現有和潛在的股東（所有者）以及債權人，均可利用財務比率評價公司的過往表現，並為日後的業務計劃設定里程碑或者是關鍵業績指標。

There are many standard ratios used to evaluate the overall financial condition of a corporation or other organisation. In general, the 4 categories of financial ratios

that a financial analyst will use most frequently are:

評估一家公司或其他組織的整體財政狀況有許多標準比率可用。一般而言，財務分析師經常使用四類財務比率：

ó Performance ratios業績比率

ó Working capital ratios 營運資金比率

ó Liquidity ratios 流動性比率

ó Solvency ratios 償債能力比率

Fundamental Investor Rock Stars

Emulating the Style of

financial ratios are an indispensable analytical tool for investment analysts. Mastery of financial ratios will allow self directed investors to emulate the style of wildly successful fundamental investors such as Warren Buffet and Peter lynch.

財務比率是投資分析中必不可少的分析工具。掌握財務比率將引導投資者跟隨價值投資大師巴菲特，林奇的腳步，踏上成功的投資之路。

作者 By Daniel Chow

追隨價值投資大師的風範


Business Analysis30

These 4 financial ratios allow a good financial analyst to quickly and efficiently address the following questions or concerns:

一名優秀的財務分析師可用這四類財務比率快速而有效地解答以下的問題或關注點：

Performance ratios業績比率

Ñ What return is the company making on its capital investment?公司的資本投資回報如何？

Ñ What are its profit margins? 利潤率如何？

Working capital ratios營運資金比率

Ñ How quickly are debts paid? 能否儘快償還債務？

Ñ How many times is inventory turned? 存貨周轉狀況如何？

Liquidity ratios流動性比率

Ñ Can the company continue to pay its liabilities and debts? 公司能否持續償還負債？

Solvency ratios (Longer term)償債能力比率（長期）

Ñ What is the level of debt in relation to other assets and to equity?跟資產和權益相比，債務水平如何？

Ñ Is the level of interest payable out of profits? 是否需用利潤支付利息？

MANAGEMENT OWNERS LENDERSOperational Analysis Profitability Liquidity• Gross Margin• Profit Margin• Operating Expense Analysis• Contribution

• Return on Equity• Earnings Per Share

• Current Ratio• Quick Ratio (Acid Test)

Asset Management Disposition of Earnings Leverage• Asset Turnover• Working Capital - Accounts Recievable - Inventory Turnover - Accounts Payable

• Cash Flow Per Share• Dividends Per Share• Dividend Yield• Payout/Retention• Dividend Coverage

• Debt to Assets• Debt to Capitalization• Debt to Equity

Profitability Market Indicators Debt Service• Return on Assets• EBIT ROA

• Stock Price• Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E)• Market to Book Value

• Interest Coverage• Interest and Principal

Coverage

SOuRCE 資料來源: FINANCIAL MODELING GuIDE [www.financialmodelingguide.com]

管理層所有者貸款人

營運分析盈利能力流動性

• 毛利率

• 利潤率

• 營運開支分析

• 供款

• 股本回報率

• 每股盈利（EPS）

• 流動比率

• 速動比率（快速流動比率測

試）

資產管理盈利處置槓桿

• 資產周轉率

• 營運資金

- 應收賬款

- 存貨周轉

- 應付賬款

• 每股現金流量

• 每股股息

• 派息率

• 分派／保留

• 股息覆蓋率

• 債務比資產

• 債務比市值

• 債務比權益

盈利能力市場指標償債能力

• 資產回報率

• EBIT ROA

• 股價

• 市盈率（P/E）

• 市賬率

• 利息覆蓋率

• 利息和本金覆蓋率

The writer is the Editor in Chief of Finance 3.0 (www.finance30.com), a Business & Finance Professional Education Network. Thousands of finance professionals from Wall Street, Fortune 500 companies, Big 4 CPA firms and management consulting firms use the Finance 3.0 platform daily to connect and learn about: Financial Markets & Investments, Corporate Finance & Valuation, Financial Modeling, Forecasting & Simulations, Financial Engineering & Mathematics, Financial Risk Management, Strategic Financial Management and Accounting

本文作者為商業及財務專業人員教育網絡Finance 3.0（www.finance30.com）主編。每天都有成千上萬來自華爾街，《財富》500強公司，四大會計師事務所，管理諮詢機構的財務專家藉助Finance 3.0平台交流和學習：金融市場與投資，企業財務與估值，財務建模，預測與模擬，金融工程與數學，財務風險管理，策略性財務管理與會計


Business Analysis 31

Attaining Mastery of Financial RatiosWhIle Most InvestMent analyst reports and financial data services provide information on a company’s or its sector average financial ratios, it is always good practice for self directed investors to not rely on these sources of information as neither their basis nor accuracy can be guaranteed.

掌握財務比率雖然大多數的投資分析報告和財經數據服

務都會提供公司或其所在行業的平均財務比率，但因此類資料的基準和準確性沒有保證，有主見的投資者不應迷信這些資料來源。

Investors should always learn how to compute their own set of financial ratios for a particular stock or sector, and use these metrics to guide their investment decisions. You can download several financial ratio analysis spreadsheet templates that will allow you to calculate, analyse and compare a set of business & financial ratios. By using these spreadsheet templates, you can assess & measure the operating performance of businesses/stocks that you intend to invest in.

投資者應當學習自行計算個別股票或行業的財務比率，以此作為投資決策的依

據。您可下載一些財務比率分析電子模板，用於計算，分析和比較一整套業務及財務比率。運用這些電子模板，便能評價與衡量您所投資的公司／股票的表現

However, a word of caution: While financial ratio analysis can provide us with important insight into a company’s performance, a good investment analyst will be aware that there are some important limitations that should be noted when using financial ratios as an analytical tool in investment analysis.

切記：儘管財務比率分析可為我們提供公司表現的重要資料，但一名優秀的投資分析師應該知道，財務比率作為投資分析工具存在幾個值得重視的局限。

Limitations of Financial Ratio Analysis財務比率分析的局限

ó Ratio analysis is a retrospective, not prospective examination. 比率分析是追溯性的檢驗，而不是前瞻性的檢驗ó Ratio analysis is based on accounting

not economic data. 比率分析的依據是會計數據，而不是經濟數據ó Ratios don’t capture significant off-

balance sheet items. 比率不能反映重大表外項目ó Basic ratios can be manipulated

through acceptable alterations of accounting policies (e.g., LIFO/FIFO).

在可接受的範圍內更改會計政策（如「後進先出」／「先進先出」），可以人為操縱基本比率 ó Financial statement accounts reflect

historical cost not necessarily current economic value. 財務報表賬目反映的是歷史成本，不一定是當前經濟價值ó Cash flow measures have been

proven to be more closely correlated with stock price movement that income based measures. 跟收入指標相比，現金流量指標與股價走勢的關係更密切

there are also several programs available that will teach you the fundamentals of financial statements analysis and financial ratios, equipping you with the knowledge and skills to correctly interpret and use financial ratios to make better investment decisions. one such program is the financial ratio analysis Masterclass available online from finance 3.0 (www.finance30.com), a Business & finance Professional education network.

某些電子程式可教您有關財務報表分析和財務比率的基礎知識，讓您掌握必備的知識與技能以正確解讀和運用財務比率，作出更為妥當的投資決策。譬如商業及財務專業人員教育網絡Finance 3.0 （www.finance30.com）提供的Financial Ratio Analysis Masterclass，便是這樣的電子程式。|AT|

Issues ROA ROE ROI ROCE Profit Margin

Do not incorporate opportunity cost or risk ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Often mislead managers to slash assets rather than invest

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Ignore cost of capital investments required to generate earnings

✔ ✔

Isolation ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Debt, dividend policy ✔ ✔ ✔

問題 ROA ROE ROI ROCE 利潤率

未有考慮機會成本或風險 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

經常誤導管理層盲目削減資產而非開展

投資

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

忽視了產生盈利所需的資本投資的成本 ✔ ✔

單獨使用時難以比較其他的機遇 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

可能受財務決策所影響（如：債務利息

的稅務後果，股息政策）

✔ ✔ ✔


32 World News

The Recession you have

When you’re not having a Recession

AustrAliAn Prime minister Kevin Rudd might speak fluent Mandarin but he has not mastered the Chinese art of phlegmatic delivery. In early June, when delivering the news that Australia’s real GDP rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent in the March quarter, making Australia the only first-world economy not in recession, Rudd could not repress a triumphant tone.

澳洲總理陸克文（Kevin Rudd）能說一口流

利的中文，但他並未領悟中國人心平氣和講話的藝術。就在6月初，當他宣佈澳洲截至3月止季度實質GDP經季節性調整後增長0.4%，使得澳洲成為唯一未有陷入衰退的發達經濟體這一消息時，其興奮之情溢於言表。

The tone suggested a ringing endorsement of the government’s leadership in troubled times, and was

aimed squarely at the parliamentary Opposition, which had been ringingly suggesting otherwise. It has been a lively debate, but the Opposition’s efforts to discredit the Government’s fiscal management keep getting snagged on the inconvenient fact that Australia has technically at no point gone into recession.

這樣的語氣是對艱困時期政府領導力的有力肯定，其矛頭直指國會中唱反調的反對黨。爭論固然激烈，但反對黨對政府管理財政的指責卻受阻於一個尷尬的事實，那就是澳洲在技術上並未陷入衰退。

Given that, on global terms, this is the worst downturn since 1929, what is Australia’s secret? The answer depends on who you listen to.

從全球來看，這應該是1929年以來最嚴重的經濟衰退，澳洲有何秘訣獨善其身？答案取決於你信哪家之言。

In one of the more fondly remembered examples of Australian political dualism, then Treasurer Paul Keating, battling the global economic fallout

of the 1987 stockmarket crash, finally answered his critics with the words, “This is the recession Australia had to have.”

先舉一個令人印象深刻的關於澳洲政治二元性的例子：曾在1987年股票市場暴跌時領導澳洲抵禦全球經濟衰退的時任財長基廷（Paul Keating），後來用這樣的話回應他的批評者：「這是澳洲不得不經歷的衰退。」

Politicians do tend to have a different way of interpreting things.

政客論事總愛與眾不同。

The rock market, Sydney, Australia

Australian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd

作者/by Chris Champion

衰退論


World News 33

What the Australian situation has highlighted is the difficulty of defining a recession. The most common interpretation is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, or, in the words of US economic statistician Julius Shiskin, “two down quarters of GDP”.

澳洲的情況給我們出了一個難題，那就是如何界定衰退。公認的理解是經濟連續兩個季度負增長即為衰退，用美國經濟統計學家希思金（Julius Shiskin）的話來說就是「GDP連跌兩季」。

There are plenty of economists who have argued that this is in fact a poor way to measure recession, and that unemployment, for example, would be more accurate and fair. The politicians sitting across the chamber from Australian Government members have been pointing out the same thing, and will continue to do so, one presumes, until

it suits them switch to the other argument.

然而不少經濟學家卻認為以此判斷衰退有失偏頗，不妨考慮其他更為準確和公允的指標，比如失業率。澳洲政府內的政客議員們也是如此主張，而且會一直堅持下去，除非他們有了別的值得爭論的話題。

A big part of any discussion about recession must be consumer confidence, but this is another area which economists argue over and politicians promulgate when it suits them. Consumer confidence is a key factor when it comes to finance and economy, says one faction. Garbage, say others.

說到衰退，談論最多的要屬消費者信心，這也是經濟學家爭論不休和政客們熱衷的話題。有人覺得消費者信心對金融和經濟至關重要，有人則不以為然。

Summing up one side is Brookes News e-zine writer Gerard Jackson who says it is a “dangerous fallacy to believe that consumer sentiment is the ... driver that raises spending, forces business to fill their order books, invest in new plant and employ more people”. This, snorts Jackson, is “right back to the mercantilist fallacy that consumption drives the economy”.

Brookes News電子雜誌撰稿人Gerard Jackson歸納了一派的觀點，他說：「那種認為消費者情緒能夠刺激開支，促使企業開出訂單，投資新工廠和增聘人手的想法是危險而荒謬的。」又說：「這是重商主義者鼓吹消費驅動經濟的謬論死灰複燃。」

For support, Jackson calls on the time-honoured words of Scottish philosopher and historian James Mill, who wrote in 1808, that “consumption is posterior to production, and it is impossible to consume what is not produced”.

Jackson從蘇格蘭哲學家和史學家James Mill的學說中引經據典，後者於1808年寫道：「消費是生產之後的事，還沒生產出來的東西是不可能消費的。」

A third proponent of the principle was W.H. Hutt, who wrote in 1974, “Consumption is the extermination of power to demand”, meaning consumption grows out of production and not the reverse.

這個理論的第三位擁護者是W.H. Hutt，他於1974年寫道：「消費意味著需求力的消滅」。換言之，先有生產，後有消費，不

可本末倒置。The other side of the argument is

summarised by John Whonderr-Arthur, who can wave an MBA and a PhD in business administration while he claims, “Financial advisers, experts and academics would agree with me that consumer confidence is a key factor in the business world when it comes to finance and economy.

身為工商管理碩士和博士的John Whonderr-Arthur總結了另一派的觀點。他說：「財務顧問，專家和學者應該會認同我的觀點，那就是在商業世界裏，消費者信心是金融和經濟的基石。」

“One (should) not forget how the traditional market principle works, all things being equal: demand and supply

Financial advisers, experts and academics would agree with me that consumer confidence is a

key factor in the business world when it comes to finance and

economy


World News34

determine price; markets respond positively to favourable reports, news or predictions; (the opposite is also true for negative reports most of the time, if not all the time); consumer confidence triggers demand which in turn triggers supply; supply encourages production which will provide jobs with money in our pockets and food on our tables; the cycle repeats itself.”

「人們不該忘記傳統市場法則如何發揮作用，正所謂萬物平等：消費和需求決定價格；市場對利好報告，消息或預測作出正面回應（遇到利空報告則剛好相反，至少大多數時候如此）；消費者信心激發需

求，進而刺激供給；供給促進生產，生產提供就業，換來我們荷包裏的金錢和餐桌上的食物；如此循環往複。」

In his corner is Orato e-zine correspondent Joel Hirschhorn, who writes, “Consumers control over two-thirds of the economic activity (of the United States). Millions of consumers could threaten to cut their spending in order to get action. American consumers must understand that literally within days and weeks they themselves could turn around the economy.”

跟他同一陣營的是Orato電子雜誌撰稿人Joel Hirschhorn，此君寫道：「消費者主宰

著（美國）超過三份之二的經濟活動。千百萬消費者可藉削減開支來逼你就範。美國消費者應該明白，毫不誇張的說，他們不用多長時間就能改變整個經濟。」

Hirschhorn cites US Federal Reserve estimates that American consumers have about US$8.85 trillion stashed in savings and money market accounts. That’s a big weapon.

Hirschhorn援引美國聯儲局的估計，指美國消費者大約有8.85萬億美元存在儲蓄和貨幣市場賬戶上。這是一個強大的武器。

All this was brought to mind when the positive Australian GDP figure was announced in early June. Joel Hirschhorn’s estimation that consumers control two-thirds of the US economy applies to Australia too given that household spending accounts for more than 60 percent of GDP. As household spending rose 0.6 percent in the March quarter, and as business investment fell 6.1 percent and housing construction fell 5.6 percent in the same period, it is clearly the consumer which has held the Australian economy above the recession line.

回頭再看6月初澳洲公佈的GDP增長數據。Joel Hirschhorn說消費者主宰美國經濟的三份之二，這個估計同樣適用於澳洲，因為家庭開支佔到澳洲GDP的六成以上。截至3月止季度家庭開支上升0.6%，同期企業投資下降6.1%，房屋建設萎縮5.6%。顯而易見，正是主宰澳洲經濟的消費者力挽狂瀾，才讓澳洲止步於衰退的邊緣。

The politicians may crow that public confidence was driven by responsible fiscal management, including massive stimulus packages, but it’s Joe and Josephine Consumer who seem to know the real secret to keeping Australia out of recession. “Consumption may be posterior to production,” they can be heard telling their mates, “but who has time to worry about that when there’s a barbecue to organise? Let’s worry about the important things. Who’s buying the sausages? Who’s buying the beer?”

政客們也許會誇耀公眾信心是源自負責任的財政管理，譬如大規模經濟刺激計劃。但是真正阻止澳洲陷入衰退的卻是普羅大眾消費者。聽聽他們的家常話：「也許消費是生產之後的事，可誰有時間理會這些。現在要辦燒烤宴，還是想想正經事吧：誰去買香腸？誰去買啤酒？」|AT|


World News 35

In some ways It’s rather a pIty that Barack Obama has had to backtrack on his commitment to keep America’s government small. The developing world would have been more than happy to welcome an American president who didn’t constantly intervene in foreign policy issues in the way that his clumsy predecessor George W Bush had done. And Americans, for their part, would also have been glad to see their government spending less of their cash, after the budgetary excesses of the Bush Administration which finally left office at the start of this year. With a global recession biting hard, and with unemployment rising fast, it seems like the worst possible time to be hitting them with new taxes.

巴拉克·奧巴馬曾信誓旦旦說要使美國政

府成為一個小政府，可惜他食言了。對第三世界來說，他們更歡迎一位不總對別國事務橫加干涉的美國總統，千萬別像他的前任——笨手笨腳的喬治·W·布什。而對美國民眾來說，他們則盼政府精打細算省些花銷，別再像年初下台的布什政府那樣大手大腳。飽受全球衰退的折磨，加上失業率飆升，百姓再也承受不起加稅的打擊。

But these are extraordinary times, whether we like it or not, and they call for extraordinary measures. If President Obama had been as respectful and as reserved as he originally promised to be, we would all have been disappointed in him by now. In his first six months of office, the new president has had to deal with demands which have literally forced him into the limelight. But have his actions been excessive?

可是，置身於非常時期，不論我們願意與否，都需要非常手段。假若奧巴馬先生真像當初他承諾的那樣謙恭和克制，也許現在我們都要對他失望不已。在他履新的六個月裏，新總統不得不照應四面八方的需求，可謂出盡風頭。只是，他的舉動會不會有些過火了呢？

Well, let’s look at the challenges he’s had to deal with. First, there’s been a North Korea that seems intent on a nuclear confrontation, and which has tried to test the new president by firing rockets and exploding a nuclear device. There’s been an Iran that much of the West has accused of rigging

The InterventionistOBAMA:

奧巴馬的干涉主義

an election in favour of a hard-liner president, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. (And which has lost no time in announcing, threateningly, that it will ‘weaponise’ its domestic nuclear stockpile.) In Pakistan, there’s been an extremist insurgency which has often threatened to hand control of significant areas to Al-Qaeda sympathisers - thus forcing the Pakistan government to appeal for international help in crushing the uprising. It would have been reckless of any American president to remain aloof.



World News36

讓我們看看他究竟有哪些挑戰。首先是朝鮮蠢蠢欲動打算核對抗，通過發射火箭和核試爆來考驗我們的新總統。接下來是伊朗，西方世界指責當局操縱選舉暗助強硬派總統內賈德（內賈德旋即威脅說要把本國的核子儲備「武器化」）。在巴基斯坦，極端主義分子興風作浪，大片國土有失陷於基地組織同情者的危險，迫使巴政府不得不求助國際社會來鎮壓叛亂。種種問題對任何美國總統來說都不能坐視不理。

There’s been a sharp rise in the oil price, and a deterioration in the economic standing of nearly every Western country, threatening further pressures on the pattern of free-market global trade. More promisingly, for the president, there’s been movement from the Israeli government with regard to the possibility of statehood for the Palestinians in the Middle East. (An opportunity for intervention which Obama would surely be foolish to ignore?)

油價在飆升，幾乎所有西方國家的經濟都在惡化，自由市場下的全球貿易模式遭遇空前壓力。更讓總統大有可為的是，以色列政府已有考慮讓巴勒斯坦在中東建國的動作（此時還不出手，那奧巴馬才是傻瓜）。

Domestic PressuresAt home, meanwhile, there’s also been

a crashing need for government support among America’s largest banks, insurance companies and car manufacturers - all of them pillars of the U.S. economy, and all

of them deemed “too big to be allowed to fail”. Either President Obama backed the decision of his predecessor to pump half a trillion dollars into the likes of Citigroup, Bank of America, JP Morgan, AIG insurers, General Motors and Chrysler - or else they went to the wall and took millions of people’s jobs and lifestyles with them. Now that the banks are starting to repay the support funds they received under the Trouble Asset Relief Programme (TARP), the decision to splash the cash seems retrospectively sound. (The $4 billion relief for the now-bankrupt Chrysler and the crashed-out GM are less obviously sound - but, in fairness, no-one was to know that at the time.)

國內壓力在國內，大銀行，大車廠，大保險公司

都在伸手向政府求助，它們皆是美國經濟的頂樑柱，「大到不容倒閉」。迫於形勢，奧巴馬先生必須支持前任政府的決定，把五千億美元注入花旗集團，美國銀行，摩根大通，AIG保險，通用汽車，克萊斯勒等企業，總好過放任它們走上絕路，讓數百萬人丟掉飯碗，衣食無著。如今銀行已開始償還「問題資產救助計劃」（TARP）


World News 37

的救助金，事後看來這個燒錢的決定也算明智。（花在已經破產的克萊斯勒和元氣大傷的通用身上的40億美元算是打了水漂。不過憑心而論，當時誰又知道如此結局？）

Those, you could say, were unavoidable domestic policy exercises which have been met responsibly and capably. But the word “unavoidable” does not necessarily spring to mind for some of President Obama’s other measures. He has nominated a Supreme Court judge, Mrs Sonia Sotomayor, who has ‘interpreted’ America’s race laws in ways which her critics say conflicts with the 1964 Civil Rights Act by giving preference to non-white job applicants. He has launched a healthcare reform programme which promises welfare entitlements to all US residents but which will hit both wealthy consumers and hard-pressed companies with hefty new taxes. He has proposed $634 billion of tax savings over ten years to help fund the programme, but everyone knows it will not be nearly enough money, and that there is more fiscal pain to come. The odd thing is that nobody has been forcing him to do these controversial things right now. He’s simply keen to make his mark.

也許你會說這些國內政策都是不得以而為之，是義不容辭的份內事。然而，奧巴馬總統的其他一些做法卻不見得都是「不得以而為」，譬如他提名索尼亞·索托馬約爾（Sonia Sotomayor）女士出任最高法院大法官。索氏對美國種族法的「解釋」招致非議，批評者認為她偏袒非白人求職者，有違《1964年民權法案》。奧巴馬還推出醫療改革計劃，承諾讓全體國民享受到福利，但卻向富人和手頭本不寬裕的企業開徵重稅。為了給這項計劃籌集資金，他提出未來十年要減稅6,340億美元，然而大家都知道這不過是杯水車薪，今後還有更多緊日子要過。奇怪的是，根本沒人逼他現在就作這些吃力不討好的事，其實他的目的很簡單，就是想作出一番成績。

Above all, President Obama does not yet seem to have flinched at the prospect of a US budget deficit which is heading for a scary $2 trillion deficit - and that’s 12% of gross domestic product, by the way. Ten years ago, any emerging-market country that exceeded the 7% deficit line would have had its emergency lifelines cut off by the International Monetary Fund, amid accusations of gross irresponsibility. But America has not been slow to claim exemption from the usual rules.

更重要的是，面對美國直逼兩萬億美元相當於國內生產總值12%的預算赤字，奧

巴馬先生似乎未露懼色。回想十年前，任何新興市場國家只要越過7%的赤字線，便會惹來罔顧責任的指責，其緊急貸款額度也會被國際貨幣基金組織下調。而美國從來不會落於人後申請豁免遵守這條常規。

As non-American observers, what ought to concern us now is the fairly strong likelihood that President Obama will soon turn to protectionist measures in his efforts to balance the budget. Faced with job losses at home, and with a dollar that is bound to suffer under the colossal weight of government debt, the president will be sorely tempted to impose import restrictions and penalties, add export subsidies, and perhaps even resort to political favouritism among his foreign trade partners, to keep the wheels turning. Free global trade, he will probably say, is an expensive luxury that can wait its turn in the queue.

作為外國觀察家，現在我們最擔心的是奧巴馬極有可能採取貿易保護主義措施來平衡預算。由於國內失業率高企，以及美元匯率勢必受到沉重的政府債務拖累，奧巴馬總統肯定會順理成章地施加進口限制和懲罰，提高出口補貼，甚或以政治上的親疏遠近對待美國的貿易夥伴，從而維持經濟車輪的運轉。或許他會說，自由的全球貿易太奢侈，且待從長計議。|AT|

President Barack Obama meets with Judge Sonia Sotomayor in the Oval Office on May 21, 2009. The President nominated Judge Sotomayer to the U.S. Supreme Court on May 26, 2009.

photograph © pete SoUza / the officiaL White hoUSe photo Stream

We are again into a crossroad of action. It has been about 14 weeks of a general advance into the global recovery in stocks without so much of a hiccup of a correction and this extendedness may prompt the need to reassess downside risks. High liquidity levels have so far extended the market’s ability to rebound and have done quite well in presenting rotational action in market swings; this keeps money in and at the same time provides for some reconsolidation time to try to fix overbought conditions. But looking once again at the extendedness in markets, the diminutive size of reactions

and the faltering momentum indications are showing signs of wear that may ask prices to show wider corrective swings.

Weakness brewingI have noticed a few technical facts

surface that may induce another major reaction that could find prices subsiding to medium term averages.

å Many indices have had extended runs without too much correction time. So much so that prices have earlier showed overbought RSI reads of 70% to 80%. Moreover a number of indices still stand

with price premiums to short term moving averages (65-day or 13-wk) of around 7% to 13%. These spreads are what present reactions may try to cover.

ç Upward momentum has faltered. There is evidence of some slowdown in MACD and RSI strength – this may warrant some defensive action as it offers a window for corrective retracements. Some short term divergences have materialised and these are telltale signs of markets on a fringe of a wider corrective shift or pattern. Markets will now only support advances that are slower or with less steep angles and even show horizontal consolidations after its initial reaction to more supportive zones.

é A number of indices have been climbing with less volume power. This is very representative of a mania in buying interest that may need grounding. This shrinkage in volume is caused by sellers retreating in the advent of the power rush; once they notice weakness develop, supply will likely resurface and will do so quickly.

A number of indices mAy need to bow down Along with the sP500 And breAthe in

Looking at the SP500 as an example (figure left), we can clearly see that at its recent highs of 956 as compared with earlier highs of 930 – it was accompanied by a divergence in its RSI and MACD. This suggests weakness in buying power, although prices push higher the force required to do was smaller and this presages some vulnerability to profit taking pressure. Moreover it also showed a down slant in volume into this advance highlighting the fact the there was less fuel firing up this recovery near its recent highs. Again this should be enough warning to lighten into positions and wait for stronger support prices to argue our risks versus our rewards, because it does not glimmer too brightly as of the moment.

Markets such as the SP500 would attempt to try to narrow their spreads to

country current Price (6/18/’09) 1/4-yr mA 1-yr mA rally from ‘09

low

indonesia 1,950 1,725 1,722 70%

hong Kong 17,776 16,084 16,943 69%

singapore 2,237 2,037 2,153 67%

thailand 570 505 546 56%

china 2,853 2,542 2,355 55%

Philippines 2,434 2,183 2,222 50%

south Korea 1,375 1,343 1,320 45%

Japan 9,703 9,033 10,121 45%

usA (sp500) 910 874 993 44%

Australia 3,887 3,743 4,111 32%

malaysia 1,054 989 992 31%

38

AsiAn tigers inVestor rePort | JULY 2009

Technical Overview of Markets

their short to medium term averages in an effort to fix its over-bloatedness. Such divergences and volume drops could posit a reaction to 65-day (quarterly) or even 130-day (semi-annual) moving averages. This may coincide with a Fibonacci pullback of about 38% of the entire recovery to fulfill the need of extricating supply overhang.

Although these weak conditions may foster corrective threats into the short term it does not yet carry the stronger threat of a trend reversal. Major support structures (65-130-260-day Moving Averages) are still intact and holding well below prices and as long as these are not violated the recovery action could yet be pressed into a consolidation range before resuming.

What happens next? The aftermath of this rally wave may leave many to speculate on – will we see prices fall back to previous lows? Or will the corrective pullback be contained and eventually produce a higher low fostering a more solid base? Although prices do have a chance to test previous lows, I feel the chance for this happening is an extremely small one as I shall describe below. However lets us review a typical bearish template to recognise what may lie ahead.

å First of all I think we have gone through the worst in terms of share price collapses as that period of utmost desperation took place last year and when shareholders almost threw everything out the window. Such a selling climax like

the Oct and Nov 08 splashdowns and followed by March 09’s plummet usually produces major market lows and often enough depicts major bear market lows despite perhaps some isolated cases. How much more sense of fear and dread could there have been?

ç A major recovery followed this desperate period of over pessimism often outperforming common analyst’s expectations. The rally will likely hit and perhaps even pass fair valuations given sudden flood of liquidity caused by a prevailing crisis fears - many times asserting recoveries lasting a 3-10 months and showing index gains of over 30% or even greater than 50%. This period of short lived confidence will force many bearish analysts to change their mindset and compel them calling up more bullish predictions. This has happened.

é After the frenzied recovery will come a period of reaction and reconsolidation which will attempt to drag prices to more attractive levels. This is where we likely stand today. Such corrective reconsolidations may however compose three varieties in form.

a. A sidewards consolidation – where there is a small chance that this type would be orchestrated as of this point but only due to the fact that liquidity levels remain relatively high and could cause bargain hunting to be rather forceful and persistent. However it does not seem likely that fundamentals may be able to turn fast enough to justify present price levels. In contrast prices may have to be the one to catch up to fundamentals and this would be an argument against this less forceful type of correction.

b. A first sudden then slower orderly corrective retracement – there is a high chance of this type of correction already taking place given that fair valuations have already been hit. Moreover a long overdue reactive drive may likely douse bullish sentiments and adversely inhibit liquidity flows after seeing prices start to drawback. A shift down to medium term averages may be displayed and

could produce downward channels that simmer down using Fibonacci’s expected retracement window of around 38% to 62% of the rally size. I would expect this scenario to be the highest chance of forming into the US set of indices.

c. The last type is the retest of previous lows I not lower – I think this last option may have the smallest chance of taking form. Liquidity levels may be too high, interest rates may be too low, and the crisis pushing all into a panic in 08 may have squeezed almost all it could squeeze. Now that anecdotal evidences of slower degeneration in economies has been shown, the heralding of an eventual mending is clearly what we wait for… prodding more sense of hope rather than fear and despair. Thus the push back to panic stricken price levels seem improbable.

After the frenzied recovery will come a period of reaction and reconsolidation which will attempt to drag prices to more attractive levels. This is where we likely stand today. TACTIC: Prepare for price contractions and ranged swings by lightening down. These extended periods may demonstrate controlled boundaries whose upsides are tight but whose downsides may yet offer some room. Keep in mind however that the initial drive into a corrective swing may be quite serrated as concerns suddenly grow when prices begin to break channel lows, support stops and major consolidation bases if any. We have to wait to see if reactions take one of the three types and if the first or second show, we slowly accumulate into support thrusts. If it is the less chancy and dreaded third, we severely cut down position size and prepare for a longer period of hibernation. |At|

JULY 2009 | AsiAn tigers inVestor rePort

techinical overview of markets 39

Nikkei 225 (Japan)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

9,466 8,957 10,200 11,500

9033.6210000

LastHigh on 06/18/08AverageLow on 10/28/08SMAVG on Close(65)SMAVG on Close(32)SMAVG on Close(260)

9689.7714469.999871.666994.909033.62019535.148410121.5234

MACD on Close(12,26)Signal on Close(9)MACD2 on Close

193.2284225.5440-32.3153

RSI on Close(14) 53.12

16000

15000

14000

13000

12000

11000

9000

8000

7000

10121.52

9033.62

9689.77

-32.3153

-500

80

60

40

20

193.2287

53.12

Jun 30 Jul 31 Aug 29 Sep 30 Oct 31 Nov 28 Dec 30 Jan 30 Feb 27 Mar 31 Apr 30 May 292008

Nikkei wedged in a channelThe Nikkei, after showing a double bottom, finds itself within the bounds of an upward price channel. It has recently reached the higher end of its range and may be subject to a wave of profit taking. In fact prices have already hit its 1-yr Moving Average (at 10,152) and this may be expected to show selling pressure. It is expected that a reactive drive may look to find support closer to its trendline or its short term Moving Averages at 9,466 then 8,957 respectively.

Shanghai Composite (China) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

2,665 2,521 2,910-3,000 3,500

Shanghai Index proceeds with up rangeThis Chinese index has also draw out an advancing price channel and continues to flow through it. As the distance to support is not too distant, it seems that the advance has been properly managed through as it corrects on time whenever daily RSIs tag 70+. The only worry is that a weekly version of this graph shows an RSI close to 70 and this may soon trigger a wider corrective swing. Nevertheless its trendline is intact as is its short term support point at 2,665 keeping downside risks at bay for the meantime.

StRategy: Recent overbought readings and the drift off in momentum highly suggest some lightening in preparation for a corrective swing. Look to take some profits into its range highs or resistance and attempt to buy back after a reactive drive that can swerve prices back between the support ranges of 9,466 then 8,957.

40

aSIaN tIgeRS INVeStOR RePORt | JULY 2009

ATIR Market Report


2810.1232952.0392301.0601664.9252531.34202675.70092357.8110


61.139362.8337-1.6945


4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

100

0

-100

80

60

40

20


StRategy: As the channel offers a range of security, a Hold is still recommended with a careful eye peeled over support. Only a brake below 2,665 can prompt a wider reactive swing that can induce a profit take recommendation. Given the current advancing angle, a short term resistance target is placed closer 2,910-3,000.

Set Index (Thailand)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

590-561 500 640 715

Jakarta Composite (Indonesia) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

1,920 1,726 2,200 2,500

JULY 2009 | aSIaN tIgeRS INVeStOR RePORt

atIR Market Report 41


586.14787.43530.45630.05503.3623565.1340547.5504


23.501126.6533-3.1522


800

700

600

500

400

200-20-40

20406080


The Set shows too much stretch and strainThe Thai Set index has worked on an impressive recovery (56% from March lows) but may have left it too strung out. Although above its 1-yr (260-day) Moving Average, it does show a Diverging notion into its RSI. This forewarns susceptibility to a corrective maneuver which may look soon prod prices to foster a pullback to support (561-500) or limit itself into reactive consolidation or pattern for the time being. A break of its short term up trendline 590 would trigger a wider corrective tug.


2024.8652394.1711670.8521089.3401715.94671928.51071724.9120


77.106487.9405-10.8321


2400

2200

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

1000-100

80

604020


The JCI also housed by a controlled rangeJakarta’s Composite is also proceeding along its advance guarded by a price channel. Its present range shows a high at 2,200 and its low sides foster support at 1,919. Several overbought readings (RSIs of 80) have appeared in the last 3-months but all have worked into a reaction to fix this over-extendedness. As its swing seems to be slightly elevated with a slight divergence noted, more pullbacks to its range lows are to be expected into the short term. It may also craft a consolidation zone to allow for more profit taking.

StRategy: The JCI’s channel proceeds to offer a range trade proposition… looking for some profit taking near 2,150 to 2,200 and a buy back into a reaction towards 1,920. Place a protective stop at this support low as a breach of this may condition a downside closer to 1,726.

StRategy: Given that the Set is displaying a reactive drive after a divergence was noted, a watchful eye on support is necessary. Look to profit take into rebounds from this point while keeping trading options to buy open closer to 561 to 500. Be prepared for a small range to likely form.

KLSE Composite (Malaysia)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

1,048 1,000 1,100 1,160

PSE Index (Philippines) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

2,370 2,224 2,200 2,500


2441.752778.132194.301684.752174.55962370.72342224.4043


81.694989.3006-7.6057



3400

3200

3000

2800

2600

2400

2200

2000

1800

1600

1000

-100

80

604020

The PSEi also showing too much to soonThe Philippine Composite made its way promptly lower after its recent tag of its channel highs. This may suggest that overbought levels may need to weigh down and offer a reactive drive that may threaten its trendline. In fact a break of its trendline would cast a reaction closer to 2,370 or even 2,224. Although no divergences show, overbought conditions are its immediate problem after a very vertical ascent into the last two and half weeks. This is why prices made their way down briskly.

StRategy: A profit take read is issued for the KLSE as prices are expected to find greater areas of support in order to offset the recent extendedness of this index. Perhaps a move to buy back would commence if prices can react to more supportive areas closer to its 1-yr Moving Average closer of 1,000.T

StRategy: Look to take some profits into rebounds from this point on as its first support may soon be tagged. Be prepared for small ranges to form after a bounce which may try to keep prices hosted over 2,224. A range trading option will stand thereafter as long as prices do not break its 1-yr MA support.


atIR Market Report42


1070.901226.75978.87801.27986.44431048.1434993.0648


19.340621.5324-2.1918


1300

1200

1100

1000

900

800

200-20-40

20

40

60

80


Malaysia also showing some strainThe KLSE index advance seems so to be losing some steam as prices come to test range lows. With market momentum dropping after an extended swing, it is quite likely to expect prices to dip towards stronger support zones closer to 1,048 if not 1,000. MACD readings as well as RSI indications do show that this corrective possibility should occur into the short term and may foster a corrective range after the initial drawback.

Straits Times Index (Singapore)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

565-550 500 640 715


586.14787.48530.45380.05503.3623565.1340547.5504


23.501126.6533-3.1522


800

700

600

500

400

200-20-40

80

60

40

20


The STI is now showing corrective pressureSingapore was one the markets that fell quite susceptible to profit taking in recent times, breaking its short term trendline’s support below 600. It seems quite likely that prices may correct towards 565-550 as an initial drive to its reaction. A rebound thereafter would also push for an area pattern or consolidation in an effort to work off any overhang in supply. Momentum indicators also attest to this corrective drive which could foster a consolidation through a reactive channel.

Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

17,685 /16,968 16,968 / 16,000 19,170 20,300


9689.7714469.999871.666994.901344.02291401.23321320.7726


6.704211.0010-4.2967


18000

22000

28000

24000

20000

16000

14000

12000

10000

0

-1000

806040

20


Hang Seng now ranging from its updriveThe HSI is now testing the lower end of its channel range and must be carefully watched. Prices may need to consolidate if not correct a little more to handle it’s overstretch as it has recorded a gain of 68% from its March lows. This must be tempered through some reaction time. Support is seen at 17,685 followed by 16,968 – these levels should try to hold for the meantime to try to support a recovery into a congestion pattern. Resistance is expected at its recent highs of 19,170.

StRategy: Allow a bounce to offer an area to lighten down as an expected area pattern my soon brew after the initial drawdown. Prices are coming close to its short term support (550) and this may try to work off a recovery to provide for better prices into your lightening intent.

StRategy: As long as its consolidation pattern holds and price are close to its lows, a Hold is issued. Only a break below 17,685 can instigate a wider corrective event that would reinforce more profit taking. Downside risk into a support break would offer 16,968 then 16,000 as its next target spots.

JULY 2009 | aSIaN tIgeRS INVeStOR RePORt

atIR Market Report 43

Kospi (South Korea) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

1,350-1,322 1,238 1,437 1,600

All Ordinaries Index (Australia) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

3,872 / 3,743 3,583 4,080 4,290 /4,400

40004111.53


50.936460.8273-9.8908


3885.805550.904084.403090.803743. 20173874.19074111.5298


3743.20

50.9364

6000

5500

5000

4500

3885.80

3500

-200

80

40

20

3000

-100

6049.85


-9.8908

20

-4.29676.7042

1401.23

1320.77


1381.491775.111306.37892.161344.02291401.23321320.7726


6.704211.0010-4.2967


1344.02

1800

1600

1200

1000

1381.491381.49

-50

80

40

50

-100

6047.39

20


Australia also to test channel lowsThe All Ordinaries have come down to test its channel lows and will be making a declaration towards its short term bias soon. A support watch is geared towards 3,872 then 3,743 to try to hold prices within a consolidation frame. Again a Divergence was noted in its RSI which depicts some threat that a heavier reaction may yet unfold. As is, a significant chance for a horizontal range may appear at this junction to fix its overhang.

The Kospi is all boxed upThe Kospi has slanted sideways and has created a horizontal trading range. This range may be working in the need to show some profit taking after its rush since March lows. Range trading and rotational swinging is expected within its lineup of issues. Support is carried at 1,350 to 1,322 – a break of these would adversely affect its recovery action and recast a wider corrective trend. The box resistance is clearly pegged at 1,437.

StRategy: A range trading condition is currently upheld for the Kospi and will remain in effect until its range is violated. A breakout above 1,437 would resume a trading buy signal in expectation for a prospective recovery to 1,600. However corrective powers are still lingering and have a decent chance of breaking support at 1,350-1,322 which would sign on a Sell.

StRategy: A sell into strength is issued as prices are testing range lows. A bounce from here should deliver a better stand to lighten down positions given the technical weakness. Look then to reposition when prices can show better stability closer to the support points of 3,743 if not 3,583.


atIR Market Report44

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