asian investment conference, hong kongptt.listedcompany.com/misc/presn/20130315-ptt... · hong kong...

Asian Investment Conference, Hong Kong

March 19-20, 2013

Contents

1

Overview

Performance

2013 Outlook

Overview Performance 2013 Outlook

Indigenous (19%)

Imported Refined Petroleum Products 68 KBD

810 KBD (**)

Source: PTIT

Remark : (*)Refined product from refineries= 865 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 95 KBD

(**) Not included Inventory

KBD = Thousand Barrels per day

Crude Export 43 KBD

Import (81%)

Crude/ Condensate 855 KBD

Refined Products 960 KBD*

Domestic

Crude/ Condensate 173 KBD

Supply Production Sales

Export

249 KBD

Oil Balance Thailand: Jan - Dec 2012

923 KBD

216 KBD

Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply

Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,087 KBD

PTT’s Associated Refineries : 910 KBD

(TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)

Other Refineries : 177 KBD (ESSO)

Refined Products 206 KBD

2


LNG

14%

Myanmar

86%

Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Dec 2012

Indigenous (79%) 3,591 MMSCFD

Power (59%)

Industry (14%)

NGV (6%)

Petrochemical Feedstock

(14%)

Industry Household

Transportation (7%)

Ethane/ Propane/ LPG/NGL

LPG/NGL

Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3

Pipeline 1,049 MMSCFD

2,541 MMSCFD

Methane 1,583 MMSCFD

Main driver of the Thai economy

Supply Production Sales

958 MMSCFD (21%)

6 GSPs Total Capacity

2,740 MMSCFD

959 MMSCFD

Import (21%) 959 MMSCFD

3

Chevron31%

PTTEP 27%

Others 42%


81%

43%

19%

57%

2001 2012

Revenue

Net Income

Affiliate

PTT

702

3,489

IPO

1 As of December 28, 2012 2 As of December 2012

Note: THB/US$ exchange rate of 30.00

Largest company on Thai Stock exchange

Market cap ~US$30bn1

Group companies:18.5%1 of Thai Stock Exchange

market capitalization

Majority owned by Thai government (66%)

51% by Ministry of Finance

15% by Vayupak Fund

Fully integrated and highly diversified over the entire

O&G value chain

International exploration and production business with

901 mmboe2 of proved reserves

Sole operator and owner of gas transmission pipelines

and GSPs in Thailand

Largest refinery group in Thailand with stakes in 5 of 6

refineries in the country

Largest petrochemical producer group in Thailand with

stakes in 6 of 8 major petrochemical plants

Leading oil marketing business with 1,352 retail

stations and 38% 2 of market share by volume

International oil trading business having traded 68.4

bn liters in 2012

Coal business assets in Indonesia,

Madagascar, and Brunei

PTT is Thailand’s Largest Energy Company

PTT Public Limited Company (“PTT”) Robust revenue and Net Income growth since IPO

(MMUSD)

12,553

93,128

International and local recognition

Award in 2012

Best CEO

Best CFO

Best Managed Company

Best Corporate Governance

Best Investor Relations

Best CSR

Best Commitment to Strong

Dividend Policy

SET Awards

Top Corporate

Governance Report

Award 2010 & 2011

Best Corporate Social

Responsibility Awards

2011

95th Fortune Global 500 in

2012

128th in 2011

155th in 2010

118th in 2009

8th Top Asia overall

Performance of 2011

3rd Top Asia Integrated

Oil & Gas of 2011

Asia Talent Management

10th Asia Business

Leaders Award 2011

Dow Jones Sustainability

Index

Listed in September 2012

Listed in January 2012

4


Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT PTT ratings at Thai sovereign level

Thai Ministry of Finance

51%

Vayupak Fund1 15%

Public 34%

Kingdom of Thailand – FC

Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A-

PTT – FC Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A-

PTT – LC Baa1 BBB+ A- A

Largest market cap on the Thai Stock Exchange

Note: As of September 10, 2012

• Foreign 18%

• Thai 16%

1 The Vayupak Fund is a registered investment management fund in Thailand in which the Government is a major unit holder. The Government has rights of first refusal with respect to

any of our shares to be sold by the fund. Although the fund’s shareholding may be considered to be beneficially owned by the Government under international standards, such shares

are not considered to be owned by the Government for the purposes of Thai law or our compliance with certain of our debt covenants 2 Based on Bloomberg data as of as of December 28, 2012. THB/US$ exchange rate of 31.7775

PTT PTTEP PTTGC TOP IRPC BCP Total Others

Market cap (BNUSD)2 30.8 21.1 10.3 4.5 2.7 1.4 70.4 313.9

% of SET 8.0% 5.5% 2.7% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 18.5% 81.5%

Moody’s rating Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa1 Baa3 N.A. - -

S&P rating BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BBB- N.A. - -

PTT’s Strategic Importance to Thailand

5


http://www.jcr.co.jp/english/

Our Major Businesses & Activities

E&P

Gas

PTTEP 65.29% Exploration and Production

Upst

ream

Oil Marketing

Int’l Trading

Dow

nst

ream

Petrochemic

al & Refining

PTTGC 48.89% Petrochemical Flagship

TOP 49.10% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical

IRPC 38.51% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical

SPRC 36.00% Stand alone Complex Refinery

BCP 27.22% Complex Refinery & Retail Stations

New

Busi

ness

International PTT Inter 100% Overseas investment arm of PTT :

Coal, New energy and related businesses

• Oil Marketing 100% Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing

• Int’l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and

petrochemical products

Inte

rmedia

te

PTT PLC

• Gas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline

• S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas

• GSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock

6

Business Areas Activities Company PTT’s holding (%)


PTT Aspiration Strategic direction and target to achieve “Big-Long-Strong” aspiration

“Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company”

7

Strong

TOP Quartile ROIC

Listed in DJSI since 2011

Long

Ranked Fortune 95th

Big

Technologically Advanced and Green National Oil Company


(111) (147)

1,594 1,508

1,019 1,206

592 627

448 295

2011 2012

Net Income Performance: 2012 vs 2011

8

3,489

• NG sales vol. increase 9% • Avg. GSP sales vol. increase 11% • Oil vol. increase 6% • Oil margin increase 15% • NGV loss increase 73% • Avg. NG gas cost increase 22%

• Sales vol. increase 8% • Soften spread margin

• Avg. selling price increase 17% • Sales vol. increase 4% Impairment on Montara assets 204 MMUSD

PTT

Others

Refinery

PTTEP

Petrochem

Unit : MMUSD

3,542

2%

* Including Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates = 19 MMUSD

Impairment on EMG 3,972 MMTHB (132 MMUSD)

• Crude intake increase 1% • Avg. GIM decrease 32%, mainly from stock loss


Contents

9

Overview

Performance

2013 Outlook


26%

Exploration & Production Performance : PTTEP (65.29%)

Product Prices Net Income (100%)

Sales Volume Key Activities

7.68 8.03 6.00 7.59

99.35 101.81 102.23 103.27

64.00 66.38 55.49

64.86

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

Liquid (USD/BBL)

Gas (USD/MMBTU)

Weighted Avg. (USD/BOE)

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

558

1,468

Unit: MMUSD

194 194 187 183

99 100 78 93

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

294

Liquid

Gas

Unit: KBOED

1%

292

E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others

10

QoQ

• Sales volume increased from Bongkot South’s full production and ramp up in S1 and Vietnam 16-1

• Net income decreased mainly due to Montara’s impairment in Q4/12 (95MMUSD)

YoY

• Net income increased by 26% mainly due to higher selling price and sales volume, despite a crease production of Arthit North since Nov 1, 2011

449

17%

5%

265 276

1,846

27%

1%

20%

4%

2%

4%


Unit: KBOED

Reserves Replacement Ratio * 0.91

Reserve Life Index (year) ** 8

Exploration & Production Roadmap : PTTEP

Target Sales Volume Reserves and Resources

11

2015 2012 2013 2014 2016

Thailand

South East Asia

Australia Middle East & Africa

North America

2017

Montara Zawtika

Algeria

433a &416b

KKD

Leismer

Expansion

Cornerc

13%

10%

276

310

340 335 325

339



56% 50% 27% 44%

50%

73%

P1 P1+P2 P1+P2+2C

901

1,786

3,986

77% 65%

50% 23%

35%

50%

P1 P1+P2 P1+P2+2C

901

1,786

3,986

Unit: MMBOE

International

Domestic

Liquid

Gas

*Reserves Replacement Ratio : 5-Yr Additional Proved Reserves / 5-Yr Production Volume **Reserves Life Index (Year) : Proved Reserves / Production Volume

Note : P1 = Proved, P2 = Probable, 2C = Contingent

1,356 1,328

1,000 922

453 427

1,029 958

619 623

289 279

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

Gas Business Performance : Natural Gas

NG Sales Volume

NG Customer Profile

2011

2012

2010 3,802

4,055 4,152 4,148

4,145

4,330 4,249

3,919

4,284

4,507 4,611

4,746

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Unit: MMSCFD

EGAT (29%)

IPP (20%)

SPP (10%)

GSP (21%)

Industry (14%)

NGV (6%)

Unit: MMSCFD

4,161 4,746 4,611

12

AVG.

4,040

4,161

4,537

9%

4,537

3%


GSP - Reference Product Prices

GSP Sales Volume

PP

HDPE

Naphtha

Unit : USD/Ton

333 333 333 333

835 863 853 863

1,343 1,393 1,372 1,380

1,443 1,462 1,585 1,445

675 640 657 688

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

Domestic LPG

Propane (11%)

NGL (11%)

Ethane (33%)

LPG (45%)

Unit : KTon

768

2,906

188

727

581

2,109

211

726

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

1,667 1,748

5,820

5%

FO 3.5%

6,468

11%


Key Activities

Gas Business Performance

13

QoQ

• NG volume increased from 4,611 mmcfd to 4,746 mmcfd mainly from IPP

• EBITDA decreased due to more loss in NGV

• Industry margin squeezed due to soften fuel oil prices and increased NG feed cost

YoY

• NG volume increased from 4,161 mmcfd to 4,537 mmcfd mainly from EGAT and industry

• EBITDA decreased due to an increase in NG feed cost, more loss in NGV and lower margin from GSP as capped LPG domestic sales

Gas BU EBITDA

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

402

2,073

309

23%

16%

Others (9%)

TM (42%)

S&M (16%)

GSP (33%)

1,742


13

YoY

• Sales volume increased by 13%, despite feed cost

sharply increased

• No Government subsidy, while special discount

given to public transportation customers

• Control retail price of NGV remains

NGV EBIT

-352

-175 -168

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

73%

-610

4%

Vol. MMCFD 283 289 246 279

Retail price ฿/kg

10.50 10.50 8.50 10.50

Subsidy/Discount

- - 2.00 (2.00)* for public transportation


Unit: MMUSD Unit: MMUSD

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Pipeline Capacity

(MMSCFD)

GSP Capacity

(MTA)

6.7 6.7

6,980

6.7

6,980

6.7

New Supply

PTTEP (Bongkot

South)

PTTEP (M9)

6.7

6,980

6.7

Gas Business Roadmap

14

Unit : MMSCFD

Power - EGAT

- IPP

- SPP

GSP

Industry NGV

59%

21%

14%

7%

6%

19%

17%

57%

6,980 4,380 5,580

Offshore Compressor

4th Onshore

LNG Phase#2

5%



14 19 42 61 83 87

399 453

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

10%

17%

0.73

0.84

Q3/12 Q4/12

15%

0.75

0.86

2011 2012

5,665

5,840

21,807 23,035

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

3%

Oil Business Performance : PTT

Contribution Margin* Oil BU - EBITDA


Unit : THB/Liter

Unit : MM Liter

* Excluded non–oil business

15

QoQ • Sales volume increased mainly from high seasonal

demand in Q4 • EBITDA increased due to higher sales volume and better

aviation fuel and diesel margins YoY • Record high of sales volume and margins as a resumption

from the great flood • EBITDA increased due to higher sales volume and better

margin of diesel and aviation fuel • Income from non-oil business surged

Oil

Non-Oil

97 106

441

515


15%

6%


Unit: MMUSD

Oil Business Development

PTT Innovation Growing PTT brand internationally

16


Smart Fuel-up Technology

PTT life Station

The Crystal PTT

PTT Blue Society: PTT Blue Card

Regional Top Brand in ASEAN

Café Amazon

10th year anniversary

No.1 Brand in

Marketeer Magazine

Continue Growing Non-Oil Business

Introduced

“The Amazon’s

Embrace” Branch expansion

Domestic and International


18 48

200

143

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

29%

168%

0.03

0.08

0.10

0.06

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

166%

17,591 18,516

59,145 68,342

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

5%

International Trading Business Performance : PTT

Contribution Margin* Trading BU - EBITDA*


Unit :THB/Liter

Unit : MM Liter

* PTT only : Adjusted effect of FX

17

QoQ • Sales volume increased mainly from crude oil sold to

refineries and Naphtha trading • Higher margin of imported crude oil and condensate YoY • Sales volume rose from crude oil and refined products from

the out-out trading • Margin dropped due mainly from squeezed condensate

margin in relation to price structure

16%

40%


Unit: MMUSD


International Trading Business: Roadmap


BKK Singapore Dubai Guangzhou Jakarta Korea London

USA

Genève

Shanghai Japan

India

Australia S.Africa

18


Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

84%

91% 89% 90%

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

106 108

106 109

GRM/GIM Net Income (100%)

Total Intake Key Activities

Refining Business Performance

657

Source : PTT, Refining Associates Note: Weighted Avg. GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP, SPRC, BCP, and IRPC) Weighted Avg. GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries (TOP and IRPC) Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss

Unit : KBD

BCP IRPC

SPRC

TOP

BCP

SPRC

TOP

Aggregated Util.

19

QoQ • MKT GRM decreased mainly from middle distillate spreads

from resumptions of refineries after turnaround • Accounting GRM plummeted from stock loss • BZ & PX spread margin increased from the picking up

demand from US and China

YoY • Lower performance from the decrease in accounting GRM

due to stock loss in 2012 amid concerns on European debt crisis and global economic recovery

IRPC

Unit : USD/BBL

A/C GRM

A/C GIM

Mkt GRM

32% 37%

Dubai

706 689 698

Stock Gain 3.01 1.76

/Loss -1.47 -0.29

10.80

6.12 9.40

6.41

6.33

5.23 4.54

4.55

9.37

4.21

6.07

4.43


8% 1%

78%

43%


597 678

134

1,076

Unit: MMUSD

PXMax • Upgrading PX 38 KTA & BZ 82 KTA • COD: Sep 2012

Solvent Expansion (SAKC) • Increase capacity from 76 to 180 KTA • Expected COD: 2014

Phoenix update: PRP Project – Propylene Booster • Propylene 100 KTA expansion • COD: Oct 2012 From Licensee to Licensor • IRPC step up to become the Licensor of Green ABS

technology

CDU no.3 Fire Incident on July 4, 2012 • Resume normal operation in Q4/12 Solar Power Plant Phase II (Installed 50 MW) • 25MW: Located in Bamnet Narong Chaiyaphum • COD: Q1/13 • 25MW : Located at Bang Pa Han, Ayudhaya • COD: Q1/13

Refinery Project Update

20



421 438 435 427

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

507 609 603

550

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

Petrochemical Business Performance

Spread Margins Net Income (100%)


Unit : USD/Ton

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

1,241

PTT Phenol PTTGC

1%

HMC Polymers

2%

373 487

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

94% 90% 87% 89%

Unit : KTon

PTTGC

HMC Polymers

PTT Phenol

860 824

3,155

21

QoQ • Weaker performance due to lower utilization rate and stock

loss from PTTGC’s refinery unit, despite better spread margins

YoY • Sales volume increased from higher utilization rates in 2012,

from resumption of demand from the flood in 2011, despite commercial operations in several new expansion in 2011;

• PTTGC’s LDPE 300 KTA in Feb 2011 • PTT Phenol’s Bis-Phenol A 150 KTA in Q2/11 • HMC Polymers’s PDH 310 KTA in Feb 2011

• Spread margin decreased from lower demand due to concerns on global economic recession

Aggregated Util.

HDPE-Naphtha PX-Naphtha

8%

1,257

2,918


4% 20% 9%

23%

4%

Others


Unit: MMUSD

Debottleneck - PTTPE Cracker & Polymer Plants • Under study plant configurations • Expecting additional capacity of 15-20% Debottlenecking - PX capacity • Increases ARO II capacity

from 655 to 770 KTA • Expected COD: Q3/15 C4 Value Enhancement • Export mixed C4 to maximize value • Expected COD: Q1/14

Myriant • Build a semi-commercial plant • Expected COD: 2H/13

MEG expansion • 95 KTA expansion started commercial after the resolve of Map

Ta Phut court case • COD: Q4/12

PTT Asahi Chemical • Start commercial operation of PTTAC

• AN 200 KTA • MMA 70 KTA • AMS 160 KTA

• COD: Q1/13

Petrochemical Project Update

22



56.3

13.5*

190.3

108.2*

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (93.63%)

Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost Net Income (100%)


Unit : MMUSD

84 78

93 87

51 53 55 54

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

Unit : USD/Ton

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

3,249

Unit : KTon

2,861 Jembayan

Sebuku

23

QoQ • Global coal price soften on weaken demand • Sales volume decreased from lower production from

Sebuku mine YoY • Sales volume increased from Sebuku’s Northern

Lease starting June 2012, despite heavy rainfall and 2 new pit development in Jembayan in 1H/12

• Performance dropped due to the decreased average selling price despite the increase in sales volume

10,726 4%

43%

76%

Selling price

Cash Costs

7%

4%

10,830

7%

1%


0.2%

*unaudited


http://www.straitsasia.com/

http://www.straitsasia.com/

Other Businesses : Power – GPSC (30.10%)


PTTUT + IPT = Global Power Synergy Company “GPSC”

Capacity 1,357 MW (electricity 1,038 MW and steam 319 MW)

PTT is to streamline PTT Group Power Business

24


25

Myanmar

Vietnam

Indonesia

Philippines

Laos

Other Businesses : Power – GPSC (30.10%)


Oversea Opportunities

• Invest in hydro power plant • Send power back to Thai’s Grid

• Invest in coal-fired power plant • Synergy with PTTI’s coal business to import coal from Indonesia

• Invest in hydro and coal-fired power plant in order to transmit power back to Thailand • Invest in gas-fired power plant to sell electricity domestically

• Invest in gas- or coal-fired power plant • PTT Group may try power pool system in

Philippines

• Invest in coal-fired power plant • Synergy with PTTI’s coal business

for fuel supply

25


Net Income

Unit : MMUSD

106

109

80,938 93,128

2011 2012

7,046

7,595

2011 2012

3,542 3,489

2011 2012 37.24 36.64

PTT Consolidated Performance: 2012

26

Dubai (USD/BBL)

EBITDA

Net Income

EPS (THB/Share)

Revenue

2012

15%

8%

2%

73%

16%

7% 4%

PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others PTTEP

67%

23%

5% 5% PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others

PTTEP

43%

35%

18%

8% -4%

PTT

PetChem

Others

PTTEP

Refining

Revenue

EBITDA


20,045

21,771

13,980

16,868

8,468

10,961 4,236

4,777

21,457

24,389

13,077

14,579

12,194

15,409

12.1 12.3

0.4 0.4

1.3 1.4

11 1

Other Liabilities

PP&E

Others Non-

current Assets

Other Current Assets L/T

Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr)

Total Equity

Unit: MMUSD

Cash & S/T

Invest

Increased assets :

• 4th Onshore pipeline

• Offshore compressor

• PTTEP Australasia

• Myanmar Zawtika

• Bongkot

Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0

Net Debt/Equity < 1.0

ICR

Strong Financial Position

PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level

− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),

JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB+)

− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),

JCR (A), FITCH (A-)

31 Dec11 31 Dec 12

48,728

54,377

16%

Statement of Financial Position : Solid and Secured

27


0.26 0.29

0.45

0.75

1.021.14 1.16

0.610.70

0.99

1.24 1.22

0.08 0.10 0.130.23

0.31 0.35 0.380.27 0.28 0.34

0.43 0.43

25%

32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0%43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 34.9% 35.5%

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dividend Policy & Historical Payments

28

PTT’s minimum payout ratio

PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income

EPS

DPS

Dividend payout

UNIT : USD / share


Contents

29

Overview

Performance

2013 Outlook


30

Economic Outlook : Challenges ahead

• Gradual economic growth but Fiscal Cliff concern weight down • Fiscal risk is not over even though the debt ceiling battle has been suspended

• Eurozone economy remains weak but expected to stop shrinking as financial

conditions improve • No more rate cut expected from ECB

• UK’s credit rating was downgraded

• Recent indicators support a strong economic recovery • 2013 economic reforms are being expedited and likely to support the economy

going forward

• Maintain the policy rate • Inflationary pressure • Energy policy • Expected Thailand GDP growth in 2013 around 4.5-5.5%

30


109.8

116.2

122.5

117.3

107.3

94.4

99.2

108.6 111.2

106.3 107.3 106.3 107.6 111.73

109.80 108.23 106.35 106.08

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Dubai PRISM (PTT Group)

Market Outlook : Crude Oil

31 Source: PRISM (PTT Group) Estimated (18.02.2013)

The world oil demand growth is forecasted to grow by 1.0 MMBPD to reach 90.8 MMBPD in 2013

North Korea conducted its third test of a nuclear device

Positive economic sentiments from major regions

Prolonged geopolitical risks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Dubai crude oil price in 2013 is expected to be around 100-110 USD/BBL

Forecast Monthly Avg. Dubai Crude Oil

EU remained bearish

Moody’s cut UK’s perfect rating from AAA to Aa1

Italian election may result in a hung parliament

Refineries are going to a maintenance schedule together with supply rising from Non-OPEC

China started up nuclear power generator (1,080 MW)


Market Outlook : GRM

Refineries turnaround season in 1H/2013

China economic support the world growth

Net capacity added in 2013 around 640KBD

Prolong European debt crisis

32 Source: FACTS, DB, KBC, Reuters , IEA, Reuters, Thaioil and PRISM Estimated (25.02.2013)

Singapore GRM in 2013 is estimated to around 6-7 USD/BBL

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Forecast

GO

Mogas

FO


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Y2013

PP

HDPE

Naphtha

• HDPE-Naphtha expected to be around 480-580 USD/TON

• PP-Naphtha expected to be around 510-610 USD/TON

• Bz-Naphtha forecasted to be around 320-420 USD/TON

• PX-Naphtha forecasted to be around 600-700 USD/TON

Market Outlook : Petrochemical

Olefins prices and buying sentiment tend to increase after Chinese new year holidays

PX market is bullish supported by PTA

Schedule PX plant turnaround in Asia

33

Unit :USD/ton

Source: PRISM Estimated

Olefins Aromatics

Olefins and Aromatics spreads slightly improve

Additional capacity of both Olefins and Aromatics S/U across Asian region

Uncertain economic conditions resulting in the volatility of BZ and PX derivative demand

Spread

Highlights Performance 2013 Outlook

Spread

Naphtha

PX

BZ

Y2013

4th pipeline & extension

LPG import facility

• SAR tender offer

• M&A in coal, FLNG, power

Gas 30%

Oil & Trading 14%

HO, Others 3%

Opportunistic

43%

Coal 1%Power 3%

LNG 6%

848 984 1,014 619

241

239 275

565

419

215

2,072 1,127

1,154

844

1,200 136 135

62

38

27

Investment in Joint Venture and its subsidiaries

Head Office and others

Oil and International Trading

Natural Gas

Unit: MMUSD

PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 366bn ($12bn) during 2013-2017

CAPEX Breakdown : 5 Years

By Business Unit

JV &

Investment in

Subsidiaries

53%

34

2,521

1,920 1,683

3,295

2,795

Note: THB/US$ exchange rate of 30.00

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Highlights Performance 2013 Outlook

PTTEP 41%

Gas 10%

Others opportunistic

15%

P&R** 24%

R & D 2%

PTT Group CAPEX 2013 – 2017 ~ USD 37 Bn

• Thailand 56% • SE Asia 21% • North America 16% • Australasia 4% • ME & Africa 3%

• Onshore Pipeline • LNG Terminal • NGV Stations • Offshore Spur Lines

• Coal • FLNG • Power

• Biochemical • Specialty

* Excluded M&A of Affiliates, ** PTTGC excludes new initiatives

LPG facilities

35


Thank you PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department

Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected] http://www.pttplc.com, http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR

The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information

contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial

performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events

will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those

projected.

Disclaimer

Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information

In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange and

Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual Registration Statement Form 56-1 under “Supplemental Information on Petroleum Exploration and

Production Activities”. The reserves and resources data contained in this presentation reflects the Company’s best estimates of its

reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its proved reserves, no

independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources data disclosed in this

presentation. Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Company’s gross basis. This presentation may contain

the terms “proved reserves”, “probable reserves”, and/or “contingent resources”. Unless stated otherwise, the Company adopts

similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data,

can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and

under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations.

Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data

suggests are more likely than not to be recoverable.

Contingent Resources – Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be

potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable. The

reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market availability, political, environmental, or technological.

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.pttplc.com/

http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR

37

PTT Group Performance : 2012

% share

Unit : MMUSD 2011 2012 YoY 2011 2012 YoY

PTT Net operating Income 1,575 1,508 -4% 1,575 1,508 -4%

E&P - PTTEP 1,492 1,911 28% 65.29% 1,019 1,206 18%

Petro. Business 1,241 1,257 1% 592 627 6%

- PTTGC* 1,001 1,133 13% 48.89% 482 560 16%

- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC

/ PTTME/PTTTANK239 124 -48% 40-48% 110 67 -39%

Refining 1,076 678 -37% 448 295 -34%

- TOP 495 411 -17% 49.10% 250 213 -15%

- IRPC 131 -32 -124% 38.51% 48 -13 -127%

- SPRC 263 157 -40% 36.00% 99 55 -44%

- BCP 187 142 -24% 27.22% 51 40 -22%

Inter- PTTI group

(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-199 -200 -1% 100% -199 -200 -1%

Gas &

Utilities-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 112 144 28% 20-100% 31 50 61%

Oil & Oth.- PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/

/PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo62 9 -85% 33-100% 57 3 -95%

Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 3,784 3,798 37% 1,948 1,981 2%

Add Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates19 0 n.m. 19 0 n.m.

PTT Conso. Net Income 5,378 5,306 -1% 3,542 3,489 -2%

Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT

*PTTGC performance from Pro-Forma Statement

Net Income

Unit : MMUSD

106

108

22,868 24,430

Q3/12 Q4/12

1,877 1,777

Q3/12 Q4/12

1,202 757

Q3/12 Q4/12 12.62 7.95

PTT Consolidated Performance: Q4/2012

38

Dubai (USD/BBL)

EBITDA

Net Income

EPS (THB/Share)

Revenue

Q4/2012

7%

37%

72%

17%

7% 4%

PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others PTTEP

75%

17%

3% 5% PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others

PTTEP

PetChem

35%

38%

25%

10% -8%

PTT

Others

PTTEP

Refining

Revenue

EBITDA

5%

39

PTT Group Performance : Q4/2012

% share

Unit : MMUSD Q4/11 Q4/12 YoY Q4/11 Q4/12 YoY

PTT Net operating Income 254 262 3% 253 261 3%

E&P - PTTEP 505 459 -9% 65.29% 348 284 -18%

Petro. Business 155 373 142% 81 192 138%

- PTTGC 135 346 156% 48.89% 70 176 n.m.

- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC

/ PTTME/PTTTANK20 27 34% 40-48% 11 16 41%

Refining 69 134 94% 35 77 121%

- TOP 62 64 3% 49.10% 35 53 49%

- IRPC -51 1 101% 38.51% -20 0 100%

- SPRC 39 31 -20% 36.00% 15 15 2%

- BCP 19 38 104% 27.22% 4 10 n.m.

Inter- PTTI group

(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-164 -50 69% 100% -164 -47 71%

Gas &

Utilities-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 63 85 35% 20-100% -4 12 n.m.

Oil & Oth.- PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/

/PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo-3 -74 n.m. 33-100% 37 -22 n.m.

Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 625 927 37% 333 496 49%

PTT Conso. Net Income 879 1,189 35% 586 757 29%

Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT

40

Free Cash flow

568 -105

Investing

2011 -5,342

2012 -6,019

CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset)

-3,748 -3,888

Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -2,566 -2,883

Dividend/Interest Received 521 442

Others 451 310

Operating

2011 5,910

2012 5,914

Net Income 3,542 3,489

Changes in assets & liabilities -15 -838

Income Tax -1,402 -1,359

Non-Cash Adjustment 3,744 4,539

Interest-net 41 83

Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents

3,871 4,564

Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents

4,527 3,871

Cash In/(Out)

-656 694

Adjustment

294 -125

40

Financing -1,518 924

Repayment Loans -1,209 -4,081

Interest paid -618 -675

Dividend paid -1,370 -1,410

Received from share issue 63 1,247

Received from loans/Bonds 1,617 5,843

Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows for Year 2012 & 2011 Unit : MMUSD

41

Free Cash flow

1,912 -194

Financing -2,246 70

Repayment Loans -1,058 -1,168

Interest paid -421 -406

Dividend paid -1,093 -1,142

Received from share issue 57 0

Received from loans/Bonds 268 2,786

Investing

2011 -509

2012 -2,239

CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) -828 -682

Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -1,097 -2,053

Dividend/Interest Received 1,020 996

Others 396 -500

Operating

2011 2,421

2012 2,045

Net Income 2,448 2,490

Changes in assets & liabilities 142 -113

Income Tax -322 -124

Non-Cash Adjustment 136 -256

Interest - net 17 48

Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents

1,711 1,588

Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents

2,044 1,711

Cash In/(Out)

-333 -123

Adjustment

1 1

41

Statements of Cash Flows for Year 2012 & 2011 (PTT Only) Unit : MMUSD

6,5965,694 6,270

8,529 7,654 7,373

2,2772,411

3,336

3,815 5,4007,184

31 Dec 10 31 Dec 11 31 Dec 12 31 Dec 10 31 Dec 11 31 Dec 12

Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk

Debt Portfolio

Managed debt according to financial risk and policy

Consolidated PTT Only Unit : MMUSD

42

: Cost of debts ~ 4.86 %

: % fixed-rate ~ 94 %

: Avg. debt life ~ 8.84 years

: Cost of debts ~ 4.56 %

: % fixed-rate ~ 85 %

: Avg. debt life ~ 8.11 years

Note : Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.

8,873

(26%)

(74%)

(30%)

(70%)

8,105

9,606

(35%)

(65%)

12,344

(31%)

(69%)

13,054

(41%)

(59%)

(49%)

(51%)

14,557 USD

THB

Thailand’s projected energy demand

43

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Commercial Primary Energy Consumption

36%

34%

15%

13%

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal/Lignite

Hydro/Import

KBD

25%

39%

17%

4%

14%

Renewable

2%

3,533

3,079

2,649

2,218 1,841

32%

38%

15%

12% 3%

28%

38%

16%

4%

14%

29%

39%

16%

3% 13%

1% Nuclear

Source : EPPO/ PDP 2010 Revised 3 (June 2012)/ PTT analysis as of 1 Nov 2012

Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long Term Natural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry

44 Source : PTT

Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 2013-2030) : Total ~ 2% : Power ~ 2% : GSP ~ 0% : Industry ~ 3% : NGV ~ 1%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

3 11 13 1 1 1 1 3

Power

GSP

Industry

78%

21%

8%

2,635

14%

16%

15%

59% 63%

14%

NGV6%

6%

6,771MMscfd

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00% Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00% PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00% Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC* 48.95% Associates Equity Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00% Vietnam LPG Co., Ltd. VLPG 45.00% Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE 33.19% PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00% Others Cost PetroAsia (Huizhou) Co., Ltd. PA(Huizhou) 25.00% PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 0.00016% Others Fair Value Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%

45

Others

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00% Combined Heat and Power producing Co.,Ltd CHPP 100.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00% Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00% District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00% Associates Equity Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd. TP 26.00% Independent Power (Thailand) Co., Ltd. IPT 20.00% PTT Utility Co., Ltd. PTTUT 40.00% B.Grimm BIP Power Co., Ltd. B.Grimm BIP 23.00% Nava Nakorn Electricity Generation NNEG 30.00% Bangpa-in Cogeneration, Ltd BIC 25.00% Others Cost Ratchaburi Power Co., Ltd. RPCL 15.00%

Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00% PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL 100.00% PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00% Associates Equity PTT Global Chemical Plc. PTTGC 48.89% PTT Phenol Co., Ltd. PPCL 40.00% PTT Maintenance and Engineering PTTME 40.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44% PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50% PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PMBC 50.00% Refining Associates Equity Thai Oil Plc. TOP 49.10% IRPC Plc. IRPC 38.51% Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00% Bangchak Petroleum Plc. BCP 27.22% Others Fair Value Dhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%

Subsidiaries Consolidate Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00%

International Trading Business Group

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%

Remark : * Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.

Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group

Associates Equity PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTES 40.00% PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTICT 20.00%

E&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group

Data as of 31 Dec 2012

International Investment

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Co., Ltd. PTTI 100.00%

PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%

46

Natural Gas Price Structure : Jan – Dec 2012

Customers1 Sales Price Structure

Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs + +

Power Producers 59%

: EGAT 29%

: IPP 20%

: SPP 10%

Average Purchased Gas Price

1.75%

1.75%

9.33%

21.8 Bt/MMBtu

GSP 21% Charged at the same price structure of power producers

Petrochemicals Feedstocks

Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price

Industry 14% Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil

Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.

NGV 6% Capped at 10.5 Baht/Kg

Ethane, Propane, LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals

NGL Reference to Naphtha market price

Local Cooking Gas

Export Cooking Gas

Capped at 333 USD/ton

• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions

1 As at Feb, 2013

Gas Business Generates Stable Returns

47

Sole owner and operator of

entire gas transmission

pipelines in Thailand (3,635

km), a regulated business

Supply & marketing of natural

gas provides fixed margin with

long-term contracts of 25-30

years

6 Gas Separation Plants; Total

production 6.7 MTA; are on

petrochemical market price-

linked profit sharing basis

Highlights Gas transmission pipeline capacity

Phu Hom

Nam Phong

Thailand

Ban I Tong

Ratchaburi

Nakhon Sawan

SBK

NBK

The Luang

Nakhon Ratchasima

Kaong Khoi

Samut Prakan

ESB

Bang Pakong

Khanom

Songkhla

Sadao

Yadana

Yetagun

Chon Buri

Rayong

Wang Noi

Thai-Malaysia

(JDA)

Arthit

Arthit–FPSO Erawan

Pailin Bongkot

South Bongkot

Chevron–Additional

Platong

Tantawan

Benchamas

Natural gas fields

Power plants Gas separation plant

1,2,3,5,6 in Rayong

Gas separation unit 4

in Nakhon Si Thammarat

Existing pipeline

Future pipeline

Andaman Sea

2012 Accolades PTT is widely recognized among business communities both international and local

48

167th in 2012

• 171th in 2011 • 196th in 2010

DJSI Member 2012-2013

95th in 2012 • 128th in 2011 • 155th in 2010

Asian Excellence Recognition Awards 2012/2013 • Asia’s Best CEO • Asia’s Best CFO • Best Investor Relations • Best IR

Website/Promotion • Best Environmental

Responsibility • Best Investor Relations

Companies • Best CSR

Corporate Governance Asia Recognition Awards 2012

• Best CEO 2012 • Best CFO 2012 • Best Managed Company 2012 • Best Corporate Governance

2012 • Best Investor Relations 2012 • Best Corporate Social

Responsibility 2012 • Best Commitment to Strong

Dividend Policy 2012

• Deal of the Year 2012 • Best Investor Relations Issuer 2012

• Best Fully-Integrated Oil and Gas Company, Asia

• Best Sustainable Oil and Gas Company, Asia

Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company

• 6th Overall Performance in Asia/Pacific (8th in 2011)

• Leadership Excellence • Financial Management

Excellence

The Asset’s Platinum Award for All-Round Excellence Investors’ Choice Award

SET Awards 2012 • Best Corporate Social

Responsibility Awards

• 6th Annual Best Financial Institution Awards 2012

• 2nd Annual Corporate Awards 2012 (Thailand)

The Asian Banker Annual Achievement Awards 2012

The Global Green Rankings List 2011

• Outstanding State Enterprise Award 2011-2012

• Best State Enterprise of the Year, Best of the Best

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.triplepundit.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/DJSI-logo.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.triplepundit.com/2009/09/dow-jones-sustainability-index/&usg=__5t4M8CHOSSWRLr75kV-60T-tPmE=&h=222&w=250&sz=7&hl=en&start=1&itbs=1&tbnid=alzGrAdKKDeCjM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=111&prev=/images?q=DJSI+logo&hl=en&gbv=2&tbs=isch:1

asian investment conference, hong kongptt.listedcompany.com/misc/presn/20130315-ptt... · hong kong...

Documents