asian development bank - university of tasmania€¦ · asian development bank november 2015 #1...
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Sohail Hasnie Principal Energy Specialist, Asian Development Bank November 2015
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#1 Solar Power 570 kW (ADB) - 100 MW Samarkand, Uzbekistan
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#2 Wangan Aji 50 kW – Indonesia
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#3 Rehabilitation of 1200 MW Toktogul Hydropower Plant
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1,000,000
CFLs
13 Watt each
13,000,000 watts
13 MW
60,000,000 watts
60 MW
Savings of about
50 MW of equivalent
generation
1,000,000
incandescent
60 Watt each
#4: 1 million CFL is a 50 MW power
station
1 million CFLs cost
$1.5 million
A 50 MW Power Station costs
$50 million
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Replacement of
1,000,000 incandescent bulbs
with 1,000,000 CFLs
is same as building a new
50 MW virtual power station
1 million CFLs cost
$1.0 million a 50 MW power station costs**
$50 million
** Plus cost of maintenance, land acquisition, fuel, and emissions
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100,000 electric tricycles
Cost $504 million
Savings: $185 million per year
(500,000 liters/ day $500,000 / day)
Avoided CO2 emissions
260,000 tons per year
Electricity Demand
Demand: 6-60 MW peak
Energy: 600,000 MWh
#5
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12 #6
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3 c/kWh
10 c/kWh
30+ c/kWh
#5
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300 MW, 220 kV, 500 km
Cost around $100m Estimated Savings: vs self diesel
generation per year - 2014
1500 GWh
$323 million
#7 Uzbekistan–Afghanistan (completed 2009)
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600 MW, 220kV, 175 km (in AFG)
Cost around: $57.43 million
($20.93 million for Tajikistan and
$36.5 million for Afghanistan)
•Estimated Savings against vs self diesel generation per year - 2014
•650 GWh
•$170 million
Tajikistan to Afghanistan (Oct 2011)
#8
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Disruption
is coming to the power sector
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Source: http://www.kotzendes-einhorn.de/blog/2011-06/the-hard-disk-youve-been-waiting-for-na-endlich/
1986 10,000 KB
$340 /MB
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8,000 MB ….$340 per MB
$2.7 million
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3.87 cents per kWh or $38.7 per MWh
100 MW July 2015
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Solar PPA prices trending down
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Nokia Senator 1982
Battery 9.8 kg Today 112 gm
98% weight reduction!!
Batteries
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Source:
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Prices are falling …
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Battery Life
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By 2015,
1,000,000 Electric Vehicle on road By 2022 battery price reduced
from $500/kWh
to $125/ kWh
http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/02/f8/eveverywhere_road_to_success.pdf
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$500 per kWh in 2015
$175 per kWh by 2020!
$50 per kWh by 2025??
Source:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-24/cheap-batteries-under-the-hood-add-power-to-cut-fuel-consumption
March 2015
$833 per kWh in 2010 Batteries
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• Question?
• How will your world will look like with
$50 / kWh
1000 Wh / kg
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Battery: 3 kWh
Motor: 3 kW
Battery: 16 kWh
Motor: 47 kW
Battery: 24 kWh
Motor: 80 kW
Battery: 85 kWh
Motor: 310 kW
Mitsubishi
iMiEV
Nissan
LEAF
Tesla
Model S
E-Trike
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Battery: 16 kWh
Battery: 24 kWh
Battery: 85 kWh
Mitsubishi
iMiEV
Nissan
LEAF
Tesla
Model S Battery Price
$500 / kWh
to
$50 /kWh
$38,000
$11,000
$7,000
Battery: 3 kWh
Motor: 3 kW
E-Trike
$1,350
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New Technology Training
Tokyo, July 2015 • Solar power generation • Energy efficiency • Electric vehicles • Clean coal technology
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SH: CONTEXT / LANDSCAPE Project
No. AFG AZE KAZ KGZ MON PAK TAJ TKM UZB
A. Supply Side
1 Solar powered micro-grid for remote areas P P P
2 Adoption of clean coal technologies in power
generation P P P
3 Improve efficiency of solar industry / establish new
industry P P
4 Solar off-grid to reduce demand from diesel P P P P P
5 Recycling of municipal waste for power generation P P P P P
B. Electric Vehicle and Storage
6 Battery based grid storage for reliability
improvement of renewable energy P P P P
7 Electric vehicles (bus, cars, motorcycles and
scooters) pilot for government fleet and public
transport P P P P P P P
C. Demand Side and Distribution Efficiency
8 Demand responses through smart meters and
diversified tariffs P
9 LEDs for public lighting and offices P P P P
10 Efficiency in distribution efficiency and loss
reduction P P P P P
11 Improve load dispatch systems and distribution
control with SCADA P P P P P
12 Reduce heat losses in office buildings by
retrofitting P P
Proposed Investment Projects by Each Country
(Based on brainstorming session on 29 July in Tokyo and updated on 9 September in KL)
P Proposed in Tokyo on 29 July 2015 and confirmed in KL on 9 September 2015 (AZE and TKM did not participate)
P Proposed on 9 September 2015 in KL; For AZE and TKM, proposed in Tokyo on 29 July 2015
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SH: CONTEXT / LANDSCAPE Project
No. AFG AZE KAZ KGZ MON PAK TAJ TKM UZB
B. Electric Vehicle and Storage
7
Electric vehicles (bus, cars, motorcycles and
scooters) pilot for government fleet and public
transport P P P P P P P
Electric bus P P P P P
Electric cars P P P P P
Electric motorcycles P
Electric scooters P
Proposed Investment Projects by Each Country
(Based on brainstorming session on 29 July in Tokyo and updated on 9 September in KL)
P Proposed in Tokyo on 29 July 2015 and confirmed in KL on 9 September 2015 (AZE and TKM did not participate in KL)
P Additional information provided on 9 September 2015 in KL; For AZE and TKM, proposed in Tokyo on 29 July 2015
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14 Oct 2010
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Solution Space: Electric Vehicles
Range: 35-50 km Speed: 45 km/h NO Air-conditioners: Min. Safety Standards
Price: $4,000 to $6,000 as
$4 per day
5-years Standard Warranty
24 kWh battery
160 km range
3 kWh battery
40 km range
Range: 160 km Speed: 200 km/h Air-conditioners Best Possible Safety Standards
Price: $35,000 3-years or 100,000 km Standard Warranty
Top of the Pyramid
Bottom of the Pyramid
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Range results (“Continuous" running)
A1: 72.53 km
A2: 90.33 km
B4: 62.21 km
B7: 41.89 km
22 May 2011
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25 Mar 2011
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Which one? side by side comparison (5-years of operation)
Cost: $5,000 Cost: $2,000
Electricity: $3,000 Gasoline: $7,000
Drivers save about $2,000over 5 years!!* * In addition e-trike may increase income by $9,000 over the 5-years
Other maintenance: $2,000 Other maintenance: $1,000
Total cost: $11,000 Total cost: $9,000
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• Solar Power
• Efficient Appliances including LEDs
• Lithium-ion Battery
12 Volt DC home-system
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Off-grid light in the courtyard
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PROTOTYPE
PV Solar
Panels LED Bulb
DC
Refrigerator DC LED
TV
DC Fan
Lithium Ion
Battery
KIT Components
250 watt solar panel $150
2 kWh Lithium-ion battery $700
10 LED light bulbs with cables $100
1 DC LED 19” TV $200
1 DC refrigerator $200
2 DC fans $50
Contingency $100
Total: $1,500
•47
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Proof of Concept of
an off-grid kit
April 2016 – Nov 2016 Dec 2016
Estimated
50,000
off-grid kits in
Afghanistan
and/or Pakistan
Multi-country demonstration with
estimated
1,500-2,000 off-grid kits
Sept 2015 – March 2016
Proof of Concep
t Scale-up Pilot
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Megatrends!!
Electricity: new small business.
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Leapfrogging…